RAN market
Omdia on resurgence of Huawei: #1 RAN vendor in 3 out of 5 regions; RAN market has bottomed
Market research firm Omdia (owned by Informa) says Huawei remains the number one RAN vendor in three out of five large geographical regions. Far from being fatally weakened by U.S. government sanctions, Huawei today looks as big and strong as ever. Its sales last year were the second highest in its history and only 4% less than it made in 2020, before those sanctions took effect. In three out of the five global regions studied by Omdia – Asia and Oceania, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean – Huawei was the leading RAN vendor. While third in Europe, it was absent from the top three only in North America where it is banned.
Spain’s Telefónica remains a big Huawei customer in Brazil and Germany, despite telling Krach in 2020 that it would soon have “clean networks” in those markets. Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone, two other European telco giants, are also still heavy users of Huawei. Ericsson and Nokia have noted Europe’s inability to kick out Huawei while alerting investors to “aggressive” competition from Chinese vendors in some regions.
“A few years ago, we were all talking about high-risk vendors in Europe and I think, as it looks right now, that is not an opportunity,” said Börje Ekholm, Ericsson’s CEO, on a call with analysts last month. The substitution of the Nordic vendors for Huawei has not gone as far as they would have hoped. Ekholm warned analysts one year ago about “sharply increased competition from Chinese vendors in Europe and Latin America” and said there was a risk of losing contracts. “I am sure we’ll lose some, but we do it because it is right for the overall gross margin in the company. Don’t expect us to be the most aggressive in the market.”
There are few signs of European telcos replacing one of the Nordic vendors with Huawei, or of big market share losses by Ericsson and Nokia to Chinese rivals. Nokia’s RAN market share outside China did not materially change between the first and second quarters, says Remy Pascal, a principal analyst with Omdia (quarterly figures are not disclosed but Nokia held 17.6% of the RAN market including China last year). Huawei appears to have overtaken it because of gains at the expense of other vendors and a larger revenue contribution from Huawei-friendly emerging markets in the second quarter. Seasonality and the timing of revenue recognition were also factors, says Pascal.
Huawei is still highly regarded by chief technology officers for the quality of its products. It was a pioneer in the development of 5G equipment for time division duplex (TDD) technology, where uplink and downlink communications occupy the same frequency channel, and in massive MIMO, an antenna-rich system for boosting signal strength. It beat Ericsson and Nokia to the commercialization of power amplifiers based on gallium nitride, an efficient alternative to silicon, according to Earl Lum, the founder of EJL Wireless Research.
Sanctions have not held back Huawei’s technology as much as analysts had expected. While the company was cut off from the foundries capable of manufacturing the most advanced silicon, it managed to obtain good-enough 7-nanometer chips in China for its latest smartphones, spurring its resurgence in that market. Network products remain less dependent on access to cutting-edge chips, and sales in that sector do not appear to have suffered outside markets that have imposed restrictions.
Alternatives to Huawei’s dominance have not materialized in a RAN sector that was already short of options. Besides evicting Huawei from telco networks, U.S. authorities hoped “Open RAN” would give rise to American developers of RAN products. That has failed badly.
- Mavenir, arguably the best Open RAN hope the U.S. had, became emblematic of the Open RAN market gloom after it recently withdrew from the market for radio units as part of a debt restructuring. The company has sold its Open RAN software to DISH Network and Vodafone, it has not achieved the market penetration it initially targeted. Mavenir has faced significant financial challenges that led to a restructuring in 2025, significant layoffs and a major shift in strategy away from developing its own hardware.
- Parallel Wireless makes Open RAN software and also provides Open RAN software-defined radios (SDRs) as part of its hardware ecosystem, focusing on disaggregating the radio access network stack to allow operators flexibility and reduced total cost of ownership. Their offerings include a hardware-agnostic 5G Standalone (SA) software stack and the Open RAN Aggregator software, which manages and converges multi-vendor RAN interfaces toward the core network.
Stefan Pongratz of Dell’Oro Group forecasts annual revenues from multi-vendor RAN deployments – where telcos combine vendors instead of buying from a single big supplier – will have reached an upper limit of $3 billion by 2029, giving multi-vendor RAN less than 10% of the total RAN market by that date. He says five of six tracked regions are now classed as “highly concentrated,” with an Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score of more than 2,500. “This suggests that the supplier diversity element of the open RAN vision is fading,” Stefan added.
Preliminary data from Dell’Oro indicate that Open RAN revenues grew year-over-year (Y/Y) in 2Q25 and were nearly flat Y/Y in the first half, supported by easier comparisons, stronger capex tied to existing Open RAN deployments, and increased activity among early majority adopters.
Open RAN used to mean alternatives to Ericsson and Nokia. Today, it looks synonymous with the top 5 RAN vendors (Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung). In such an environment of extreme market concentration and failed U.S. sanctions, the appeal of Huawei’s RAN technology is still very much intact.
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Omdia’s historical data shows that RAN sales fell by $5 billion, to $40 billion, in 2023, and by the same amount again last year. In 2025, it is guiding for low single-digit percentage growth outside China, implying the RAN market has bottomed out. This stabilization suggests the market may be transitioning into a phase of flat-to-modest growth, though risks such as operator capex constraints and uneven regional demand remain. However, concentration of RAN vendors
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References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/huawei-overtakes-nokia-outside-china-as-open-ran-stabilizes-
Omdia: Huawei increases global RAN market share due to China hegemony
Malaysia’s U Mobile signs MoU’s with Huawei and ZTE for 5G network rollout
Dell’Oro Group: RAN Market Grows Outside of China in 2Q 2025
Dell’Oro: AI RAN to account for 1/3 of RAN market by 2029; AI RAN Alliance membership increases but few telcos have joined
Network equipment vendors increase R&D; shift focus as 0% RAN market growth forecast for next 5 years!
vRAN market disappoints – just like OpenRAN and mobile 5G
Mobile Experts: Open RAN market drops 83% in 2024 as legacy carriers prefer single vendor solutions
Huawei launches CloudMatrix 384 AI System to rival Nvidia’s most advanced AI system
U.S. export controls on Nvidia H20 AI chips enables Huawei’s 910C GPU to be favored by AI tech giants in China
Dell’Oro Group: RAN Market Grows Outside of China in 2Q 2025
Following two years of steep declines, initial estimates by Dell’Oro Group reveal that total RAN revenues—including baseband, radio hardware, and software, excluding services—advanced for a third consecutive quarter outside of China in 2Q 2025.
“Our initial assessment confirms that the narrative we’ve been discussing for some time is now coming to fruition. Market conditions have continued to stabilize, resulting in growth for three consecutive quarters outside of China,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN market research at the Dell’Oro Group. “However, broader market sentiment remains subdued, and a rapid rebound is not anticipated. The industry acknowledges that short-term fluctuations are unlikely to alter the market’s generally flat long-term trajectory,” Pongratz added.
Additional highlights from the 2Q 2025 RAN report:
- Growth in Europe, as well as the Middle East and Africa, nearly offset declines in the Caribbean and Latin America, as well as the Asia Pacific region.
- RAN vendor dynamics are gradually shifting, driven by three major trends: the strong are getting stronger, laggards are not improving, and the market is becoming increasingly divided.
- Ericsson and Huawei together accounted for more than 60 percent of the 1H25 market in North America and China, respectively.
- The top 5 RAN suppliers, based on worldwide revenues for the trailing four quarters, are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
- The short-term outlook remains unchanged, with total RAN expected to stabilize in 2025.
For sure, RAN is not a growth market (+1% CAGR between 2000 and 2023). However, underneath that flattish topline over time, RAN revenues fluctuate significantly as new spectrum/technologies become available. After a massive RAN surge between 2017 and 2021, RAN revenues declined sharply in 2023 and the fundamental question now is fairly straightforward – how will the slowdown in mobile data traffic impact the RAN market over the next five years? The constantly changing and increasingly demanding end-user expectations in combination with the search for growth present opportunities and challenges for incumbent RAN suppliers and new entrants.
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Huawei’s ability to sustain growth during a period of industry volatility can be attributed to several key factors:
- Strong Presence in China: Huawei maintains a commanding position in its home market, which remains one of the largest and most competitive globally. Despite external pressures and restrictions, its domestic strength provides stability and scale.
- Expanding Global Footprint: Growth in regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Africa helped Huawei offset weaker performance in Asia Pacific, the Caribbean, and Latin America. These markets have been central to Huawei’s strategy of diversifying its global presence.
- Technological Advancements in 5G: Huawei has continued to invest heavily in 5G RAN innovation, leveraging advanced radio hardware, AI-driven network optimization, and energy-efficient base stations. These capabilities strengthen its competitive edge in delivering cost-effective and high-performance solutions.
- Resilient Business Strategy: Despite global challenges, including regulatory restrictions in certain markets, Huawei has adapted by strengthening local partnerships, investing in regional ecosystems, and optimizing supply chain resilience.
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According to the recent Omdia report, Ericsson is the top RAN vendor in both business performance and portfolio strength in 2025, thanks in part to its energy-efficient products, comprehensive support across radio technologies, and Open RAN–ready offerings.
Ericsson also continues expanding its enterprise solutions, with integrated strategies that include private 5G, Cradlepoint, and cloud-native cores. In India, Ericsson signed a multi-billion-dollar 4G/5G equipment deal with Bharti Airtel to enhance network coverage using Open RAN-ready solutions.
Nokia is actively replacing Huawei in key European deployments—securing a major Open RAN contract to supply Deutsche Telekom across 3,000 German sites. In the U.S., Nokia signed a multi-year deal with AT&T to provide cloud-based voice core and 5G network automation solutions powered by AI/ML. Nokia is gaining ground in Europe and the U.S. through modernization and automation contracts. Samsung is leveraging Open RAN partnerships for a comeback, and overall vendor competition is shaped by technology shifts toward cloud-native, AI-enabled, and multi-vendor architectures.
Samsung is stepping up in the Open RAN ecosystem — as illustrated by a successful joint demonstration between Samsung, Vodafone, and AMD showcasing a full Open RAN voice call using AMD processors and Samsung’s O-RAN vRAN software. Despite its RAN equipment revenues falling 25% in 2024, Samsung remains well positioned in Europe and Africa, particularly in Vodafone tenders for replacing Huawei, which may drive recovery through expanded vRAN/Open RAN adoption.
In summary, the global RAN market is stabilizing after a steep downturn in 2024. Huawei holds steady in core markets like China and parts of Europe, while Ericsson leads globally on portfolio strength and new deals — particularly Open RAN and enterprise solutions.
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References:
RAN Market Grows Outside of China, According to Dell’Oro Group
https://telecomlead.com/telecom-equipment/huawei-achieves-growth-in-global-ran-market-amid-industry-stabilization-122275
https://www.ericsson.com/en/ran/omdia-2025
Dell’Oro: AI RAN to account for 1/3 of RAN market by 2029; AI RAN Alliance membership increases but few telcos have joined
Dell’Oro: RAN revenue growth in 1Q2025; AI RAN is a conundrum
Omdia: Huawei increases global RAN market share due to China hegemony
Network equipment vendors increase R&D; shift focus as 0% RAN market growth forecast for next 5 years!
vRAN market disappoints – just like OpenRAN and mobile 5G
Mobile Experts: Open RAN market drops 83% in 2024 as legacy carriers prefer single vendor solutions
Dell’Oro: Global RAN Market to Drop 21% between 2021 and 2029
Omdia: Huawei increases global RAN market share due to China hegemony
Due to China’s enormous mobile network market (where foreign vendors are mostly shut out), Huawei remained the world’s largest vendor of radio access network (RAN) equipment – a market worth about $35 billion last year – according to Omdia (an Informa owned company). In 2023, the Chinese behemoth had a 31.3% share of the global RAN market. Omdia says Huawei’s market share was up by an unspecified amount in 2024, due to “a more favorable regional mix as well as market share gains in emerging markets,” according to Remy Pascal, principal analyst at Omdia.
Huawei recently reported a 22% increase in sales last year, to 860 billion Chinese yuan (US$ 118.6 billion), and it looks in better shape than its ailing western rivals. Its share of the global 5G networks market appears to have grown, according to the market research firm.
Omdia’s findings seems further to highlight the futility of U.S. sanctions against Huawei, originally imposed by Donald Trump in his first term as U.S. President and then expanded by President Joe Biden.
Image Credit: Huawei
China still lacks the ability to make the most advanced chips featuring the tiniest transistors. But technical workarounds or loopholes in trade rules have enabled Huawei to revive its smartphone business and remain competitive in networks. Late last year, telco executives who spoke on condition of anonymity said there had been no discernible impact on the quality of its products. And Ericsson continues to regard Huawei as its chief rival.
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“After two years of significant acceleration and exceptionally high investment in 2021 and 2022, and two years of steep decline in 2023 and 2024, Omdia expects 2025 to be a year of stabilization for the RAN market,” said Remy Pascal of Omdia. “Different regions will follow different trajectories, but at a global level, the market is expected to be flattish. North America has returned to growth in 2024 and we expect this to continue, we also expect a positive trajectory in some emerging markets.”
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Other results and forecasts from Omdia:
- The total global RAN market (which includes hardware and software but not services) was just over $35 billion last year, which represented a 12 percent decline on the previous year.
- There was a very slight drop in the aggregate market share of the top five RAN equipment vendors – Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung. In 2023, Omdia had that figure at about 95%. In 2024, it was roughly 94%.
- Ericsson was one of the main gainers last year thanks to its huge AT&T (non) OpenRAN contract.
- As a result, Nokia lost market share in the U.S., but claims that its global RAN footprint grew by 18,000 sites in 2024.
- Tejas Networks, an Indian RAN equipment vendor (not in the top five) that landed a large 4G contract with state-owned BSNL was another winner.
- Global RAN revenue will be “essentially flat” this year and marked by “low single digit percentage growth” outside China.
- A “positive trajectory” in emerging Asian markets as well as Africa, the Middle East and Latin America is forecast. Europe risks falling behind other parts of the world in mobile network markets.
Top RAN vendors, full year 2024 RAN revenue:
|
Global |
Global ex-China |
|---|---|
|
Huawei |
Ericsson |
|
Ericsson |
Nokia |
|
Nokia |
Huawei |
|
ZTE |
Samsung |
|
Samsung |
ZTE |
Top RAN vendors, full year 2024 RAN revenue, top 3 by region:
|
North America |
Asia & Oceania |
Europe |
Middle East and Africa |
Latin America & the Caribbean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ericsson |
Huawei |
Ericsson |
Huawei |
Huawei |
|
Nokia |
ZTE |
Nokia |
Nokia |
Ericsson |
|
Samsung |
Ericsson |
Huawei |
Ericsson |
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Dell’Oro Group’s most recent RAN report a few weeks ago stated that the global RAN market is expected to improve slightly over the short term, but the long-term outlook remains subdued. “The underlying message we have communicated for some time has not changed,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at Dell’Oro Group. “Regional imbalances will impact the market dynamics over the short term while the long-term trajectory remains flat. This is predicated on the assumption that new RAN revenue streams from private wireless and FWA, taken together with MBB-based capacity growth, are not enough to offset slower MBB coverage-based capex,” said Dell’Oro’s Stefan Pongratz.
References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/huawei-defies-us-to-grow-market-share-as-ran-decline-ends-omdia
RAN Equipment Market to Remain Uninspiring, According to Dell’Oro Group
Network equipment vendors increase R&D; shift focus as 0% RAN market growth forecast for next 5 years!
Telco spending on RAN infrastructure continues to decline as does mobile traffic growth
vRAN market disappoints – just like OpenRAN and mobile 5G
Mobile Experts: Open RAN market drops 83% in 2024 as legacy carriers prefer single vendor solutions
Network equipment vendors increase R&D; shift focus as 0% RAN market growth forecast for next 5 years!
In 2024, Ericsson’s R&D spending was SEK53.5 billion ($4.8 billion). “It is our firm commitment to really ensure that we have capacity to do the investments in R&D over time,” said Lars Sandström, Ericsson’s chief financial officer. “I think that has been the guiding star for the company for quite some years and I think, if you go long back into history, we felt that has been hurting our ability to invest when not having the right cash position.” Meanwhile, Nokia’s R&D spending rose 5% on the year, to about €4.5 billion ($4.6 billion).
Combined, that was only one-third of Huawei’s projected 2024 R&D spending of around 197.8 billion yuan or $27.3 billion which was ~20% higher than 2023. Huawei’s R&D spending has increased in recent years, from 102 billion yuan in 2018 to 164.7 billion yuan in 2023. It invests more than 10% of its sales revenue into R&D each year. In addition to telecom and IT equipment/software, Huawei is a leader in China’s efforts to develop advanced chips and technology. The company is involved in a government-funded project to develop memory units for AI chips.
Mobile network market shrinkage has not helped ROI in wireless network R&D projects. Overall RAN sales fell 11% in 2023, to about $40 billion, said researchers at Informa owned Omdia. At the midpoint of its most recently published data, Omdia was anticipating another contraction of 15% in 2024 to ~$35 billion.
Stefan Pongratz of Dell’Oro said that mobile infrastructure investments slowed significantly in 2024. Preliminary findings indicate that the Radio Access Network (RAN) market contracted by 10 to 20% year-over-year (YoY) during the 1Q24 to 3Q24 period (final 4Q24 and full-year data expected around mid-February). Network operators in many countries paused spending after their initial 5G rollouts did not lead to meaningful improvements in sales or profitability.
Following the intense 5G acceleration phase from 2017 to 2022, RAN investments declined sharply in 2023 and 2024, with the exception of India where RAN market growth is now tapering off.
While data for 2024 is unavailable, the top five vendors – Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung – served ~95.1% of the global RAN market in 2023, according to Omdia. That doesn’t leave much room for start-up or other RAN equipment makers (like Fujitsu, NEC, Datang Mobile, Mavenir, CICT Mobile, Comba, and other small players).
“The underlying message we have communicated for some time has not changed,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at Dell’Oro Group. “Regional imbalances will impact the market dynamics over the short term while the long-term trajectory remains flat. This is predicated on the assumption that new RAN revenue streams from private wireless and FWA, taken together with MBB-based capacity growth, are not enough to offset slower MBB coverage-based capex,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from Del’Oro’s Mobile RAN 5-Year January 2025 Forecast Report:
- Worldwide RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 0% CAGR over the next five years, as rapidly declining LTE revenues will offset continued 5G investments.
- Medium-term risks to the baseline are balanced, while the long-term risks are tilted to the downside and characterized by the data growth uncertainty with the existing MBB use case. As the investment focus gradually shifts from coverage to capacity, one of the most significant forecast risks is slowing mobile data traffic growth. Given current network utilization levels and data traffic trends in more advanced markets, there are serious concerns about the timing of capacity upgrades.
- The mix between existing and new use cases has not changed. Private/enterprise RAN is expected to grow at a 20 percent plus CAGR while public RAN investments decline. At the same time, because of the lower starting point, it will take some time for private RAN to move the broader RAN needle.
- 5G-Advanced positions remain unchanged. The technology will play an essential role in the broader 5G journey. However, 5G-Advanced is not expected to fuel another major capex cycle. Instead, operators will gradually transition their spending from 5G towards 5G-Advanced within their confined capex budgets.
- RAN segments that are expected to grow over the next five years include 5G NR, FWA, mmWave, Open RAN, vRAN, private wireless, and small cells.
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So how do incumbent RAN vendors cope? Ericsson is becoming more heavily reliant on software sales. CEO Börje Ekholm told analysts on the company’s last earnings call: “It is going to take some time for customers to realize we are increasingly becoming a software business. If you go back 15 years, we were much more hardware-centric, and then it was a bigger question for customers. As you move into becoming a software vendor, the working capital becomes less and less and less.”
Nokia is turning to data center connectivity for growth. CEO Pekka Lundmark declared that data centers are now the company’s top growth target, shifting away from its traditional focus on telecommunications networks and services. Nokia is developing and promoting data center switching platforms, IP networking solutions, and automation technologies to cater to the needs of hyperscalers and enterprise customers. The company has secured notable contracts with companies like CoreWeave, a leading AI hyperscaler, which demonstrates their growing presence in the data center space. It’s also in the process of acquiring fiber optic equipment company Infinera which will enhance both inter and intra- data center connect capabilities. Nokia is emphasizing open-source software like SONiC alongside its own SR Linux operating system to provide flexibility and cater to diverse customer requirements.
References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/ericsson-and-nokia-flaunt-cash-as-open-ran-pack-struggles
RAN Equipment Market to Remain Uninspiring, According to Dell’Oro Group
Dell’Oro: Global RAN Market to Drop 21% between 2021 and 2029
Highlights of Dell’Oro’s 5-year RAN forecast
Mobile Experts: Open RAN market drops 83% in 2024 as legacy carriers prefer single vendor solutions
Dell’Oro: OpenRAN revenue forecast revised down through 2027
Dell’Oro: RAN market still declining with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung top vendors
Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024
Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023
Dell’Oro: RAN Market to Decline 1% CAGR; Mobile Core Network growth reduced to 1% CAGR
Telco spending on RAN infrastructure continues to decline as does mobile traffic growth
Telco spending on radio access network (RAN) infrastructure, which is the largest share of capex, has dropped sharply in the last couple of years. It fell 11% in 2023, to about $40 billion, according to Informa owned market research firm Omdia (see References below for Dell’Oro’s numbers).
For 2024, Omdia predicts another decline of between 7% and 9%. Instead of buying new equipment, telcos have used existing supplies in their where houses.
Traffic growth rates also appear to have slowed. The graphic used in Ericsson’s latest mobility report pictures this very clearly, showing a church steeple of a traffic spike in 2019 and 2020 before a shallower downward-sloping gradient to the first half of 2024. That’s shown in this chart:
.jpg?width=700&auto=webp&quality=80&disable=upscale)
Source: Ericsson
Ericsson’s latest numbers, available through its mobility visualizer tool, shows the monthly volume of global mobile data rose by just 4.34% in the second quarter of 2024, compared with the first quarter. This is much lower than the rate of 10.76% Ericsson observed in the corresponding quarter four years earlier. The actual increase in 2024 was 6.27 exabytes. In 2020, it was 4.86 exabytes.
RAN product revenues have been falling at their sharpest rate in many years despite the 6.27-exabyte increase in monthly data volumes that happened in the second quarter. There are no signs that current 4G and 5G networks are about to keel over beneath an avalanche of data. It remains to be seen whether mobile networks are sufficiently robust to cope with many more exabytes of mobile data traffic or if telcos care about any service problems caused by congestion due to increased traffic.
There is also no obvious correlation between traffic growth and expenditure, according to Coleago Consulting. Spain’s Telefónica supported 17,054 petabytes of data on its global networks in 2015, its annual reports show. By 2023, the amount had rocketed to 146,074. Yet its capital intensity has fallen from more than 17% to just 14% over this period. Energy use, a proxy for operating costs, is also down, dropping from about 6,578 gigawatt hours in 2015 to 6,012 last year. Despite all that data consumption by its customers, Elisa’s capital intensity last year was less than 15%.
In Germany, the average monthly data usage per mobile customer (rather than per capita) amounted to 7.4 Gbytes and this may have risen to around 8 Gbytes in 1H 2024. In 2024, mobile data consumption in Finland was around 10 times higher compared to Germany. In Finland mobile operators have implemented 5G-SA and sell a user experience in terms of speed (Mbits/s) as opposed to data volume (Gbytes). As of October 2024, Elisa Finland offered a speed of 300 Mbits/s with unlimited data volume for €34.99. By contrast, in Germany, Telekom’s offer for 20 Gbytes is priced at €39.95 per month. For unlimited data usage Telekom charges €84.95, which is 2.5 times more costly than Elisa’s unlimited offer. It is unreasonable to assume that there is no price elasticity of demand. Surely, if prices in Germany were like those in Finland, monthly mobile data usage per customer would be much higher.
Monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) for a postpaid customer of Deutsche Telekom, Germany’s biggest telco, has fallen from €22 (US$23.7) before the launch of 5G to about €20 ($21.6) for the most recent quarter. Clearly, cost realities are especially awkward for Europe’s telcos, which have refused to give up their “fair share” argument that big content companies should pay for network usage because of all the traffic they supposedly generate. Critics disagree, saying that the telco’s own customers are the traffic generators, and they have already paid for it, even if pricing schemes do not help telcos to grow their sales.
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References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/data-traffic-growth-or-decline-there-s-no-upside-for-telecom
https://www.coleago.com/insights/the-end-of-telecoms-history-not-really/
Analysys Mason & Light Reading: cellular data traffic growth rates are decreasing
Dell’Oro: Global RAN Market to Drop 21% between 2021 and 2029
Dell’Oro: RAN market still declining with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung top vendors
Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024
Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023
China’s mobile data consumption slumps; Apple’s market share shrinks-no longer among top 5 vendors
Analysts: Telco CAPEX crash looks to continue: mobile core network, RAN, and optical all expected to decline
Ookla: T-Mobile and Verizon lead in U.S. 5G FWA
Dell’Oro: Global RAN Market to Drop 21% between 2021 and 2029
According to a new report from Dell’Oro Group, the overall RAN market is now facing a second consecutive year of steep declines. That follows 40 to 50% revenue growth between 2017 and 2021. While the pace of decline is expected to moderate after 2024, downward pressure is likely to persist until 6G becomes a reality.
In addition to the typical market fluctuations that have shaped the RAN landscape over the past 30-plus years, the overpromising of 5G and its inability to significantly alter the flat revenue trend among operators are fueling increased skepticism regarding the need for substantial investments in new technologies (like 5G Advanced, 5G RedCap or O-RAN).
“Some skepticism is warranted. After all, operators invested over $2 trillion in wireless capex between 2010 and 2023 to build out 4G and 5G, yet revenues remain flat,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex research at Dell’Oro Group. “Looking ahead, operators will need to optimize their spectrum roadmaps to address various data traffic scenarios. Our base case assumes that mobile data traffic growth will continue to slow, enabling operators to improve their capital intensity ratios, which will in turn put further downward pressure on the RAN market. However, additional capacity will eventually be required, and at that point, leveraging larger spectrum bands and the existing macro grid will likely offer the most cost-effective solution,” Pongratz added.
Additional highlights from the new 6G Advanced Research Report:
- Total RAN revenues are projected to trend downward until 2029
- 6G RAN revenues to approach $30 B by 2033
- Sub-7 GHz and CM-wave macros are expected to dominate the 6G mix by 2033
Dell’Oro Group’s 6G Advanced Research Report offers a complete overview of the RAN market by region and by technology, with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue for 5G NR and 6G by frequency, including Sub-7 GHz, cmWave, and mmWave. The report also covers Cloud RAN, small cells, and Massive MIMO. To purchase this report, please contact by email at [email protected].
References:
6G RAN to Approach $30 B by 2033, According to Dell’Oro Group
https://www.ericsson.com/en/blog/2023/6/cm-wave-spectrum-6g-potent-enabler
Dell’Oro: RAN market still declining with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung top vendors
Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024
Highlights of Dell’Oro’s 5-year RAN forecast
Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023
Dell’Oro: 2023 global telecom equipment revenues declined 5% YoY; Huawei increases its #1 position
Dell’Oro: Global telecom CAPEX declined 10% YoY in 1st half of 2024
According to a recent report by Dell’Oro Group, telecom operators are now scaling back their investments in 5G and fixed broadband technologies. Of course, that’s nothing new as telco CAPEX has been declining for quite some time (see References below). Preliminary Dell’Oro findings show that the more challenging conditions that shaped the second half of 2023 extended into the first half of 2024.
Worldwide telecom capex, the sum of wireless and wireline/other telecom carrier investments, declined 10% year-over-year (YoY) in the first half of 2024, partly due to built-up inventory, weaker demand in China, India, and US, challenging 5G comparisons, excess capacity, and elevated uncertainty.
“The high-level message is clear. The flattish revenue trajectory and the difficulties with monetizing new technologies and opportunities are impacting the risk appetite and willingness to raise the capital intensity levels for extended periods,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN and Telecom Capex research at Dell’Oro Group. “In addition, the reduced gap between advanced and less advanced regions, when it comes to adopting new technologies, is impacting the investment intensity on the way up and down,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the September 2024 Telecom Capex report:
- Global carrier revenues are expected to increase at a 1 percent CAGR over the next 3 years.
- Worldwide telecom capex is projected to decline at a mid-single-digit rate in 2024 and at a negative 2 percent CAGR by 2026.
- The mix between wireless and wireline remains largely unchanged, reflecting challenging times still ahead for wireless. Wireless-related capex will decline at a 3 percent CAGR by 2026.
- Capital intensity ratios are modeled to approach 15 percent by 2026, down from 17 percent in 2023.
In a previous Dell’Oro report last month, telecom equipment revenues fell by 17% worldwide during the first half of the year. Dell’Oro described that as ‘abysmal results’ and again blamed excess inventory, weaker demand in China, ‘challenging 5G comparisons’, and elevated uncertainty.
The Dell’Oro Group Telecom Capex Report provides in-depth coverage of around 50 telecom operators, highlighting carrier revenue, capital expenditure, and capital intensity trends. The report provides actual and 3-year forecast details by carrier, by region by country (United States, Canada, China, India, Japan, and South Korea), and by technology (wireless/wireline). To purchase this report, please contact by email at [email protected].
References:
Telecom Capex Down 10 Percent in 1H24, According to Dell’Oro Group
Dell’Oro: Abysmal revenue results continue: Ethernet Campus Switch and Worldwide Telecom Equipment + Telco Convergence Moves to Counter Cable Broadband
Analysts: Telco CAPEX crash looks to continue: mobile core network, RAN, and optical all expected to decline
Analysys Mason’s gloomy CAPEX forecast: “there will not be a cyclical recovery”
China Mobile & China Unicom increase revenues and profits in 2023, but will slash CAPEX in 2024
Dell’Oro: RAN market still declining with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung top vendors
Highlights of Dell’Oro’s 5-year RAN forecast
Dell’Oro: 2023 global telecom equipment revenues declined 5% YoY; Huawei increases its #1 position
Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024
Global 5G Market Snapshot; Dell’Oro and GSA Updates on 5G SA networks and devices
Dell’Oro: RAN market still declining with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung top vendors
RAN market conditions continued to remained challenging in the second quarter despite some faint signs of improvements. Dell’Oro estimates that the overall 2G–5G Radio Access Network (RAN) market—including baseband plus radio hardware and software, excluding services—declined at a double-digit rate for a fourth consecutive quarter in 2Q24. The results in the second quarter were mostly an extension of what we have seen over the past year, characterized by cautious capex spending and challenging comparisons.
“Even if the RAN market is still down at a double-digit rate in the first half, the second quarter offered some glimmer of hope that the nadir of this cycle with double-digit declines might now be in the past for the time being,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President and analyst at the Dell’Oro Group. “This does not change the fact that the RAN market is expected to decline at a 2 percent CAGR over the next five years. But the pace of the decline should moderate somewhat going forward,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the 2Q 2024 RAN report:
- Total RAN revenues were mostly in line with expectations.
- Strong growth in North America and stable trends in China were not enough to offset steep declines in the Asia Pacific region, partly driven by sharp drops in India.
- Vendor rankings are mostly unchanged. The top 5 RAN suppliers based on worldwide revenues are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
- Relative to 2023, Huawei’s 1H 2024 revenue share is up, ZTE is stable, and Nokia/Ericsson are together down 3 to 4 percentage points.
- Short-term RAN projections are mostly unchanged since the 5-year forecast update. Global RAN is expected to decline 8 percent to 12 percent outside of China.
On the bright side, the overall results were fairly aligned with expectations, and more regions are now growing. Our initial analysis shows that three out of the six tracked regions advanced on a year-over-year basis in the quarter, up from just one region in the first quarter (North America, MEA, and CALA increased while Europe, China, and Asia Pacific Excl. China declined).
Strong growth in North America and stable trends in China were not enough to offset steep declines in the Asia Pacific region, partly driven by sharp drops in India.
The supplier landscape is mostly unchanged with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE Corporation, and Samsung Networks still leading the way, while many of the non-top 5 suppliers are declining.
Relative to 2023, Huawei’s 1H 2024 revenue share is up, ZTE is stable, and Nokia/Ericsson are together down 3 to 4 percentage points.
Short-term RAN projections have remained mostly unchanged since the 5-year forecast update. Global RAN is expected to decline 8% to 12% outside of China. This implies a stronger-than-typical 2024 second half, comprising more than 53% of full-year revenues.
References:
RAN Market Still Down with Some Glimmer of Hope, According to Dell’Oro Group
Analysts: Telco CAPEX crash looks to continue: mobile core network, RAN, and optical all expected to decline
Where Have You Gone 5G? Midband spectrum, FWA, 2024 decline in CAPEX and RAN revenue
Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024
Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023
Dell’Oro: RAN Market to Decline 1% CAGR; Mobile Core Network growth reduced to 1% CAGR
AI RAN Alliance selects Alex Choi as Chairman
Backgrounder:
The AI RAN Alliance, formed earlier this year, is a groundbreaking collaboration aimed at revolutionizing the RAN industry. Partnering with tech giants, the goal is to transform traditional Radio Access Networks (RANs) into intelligent, self-optimizing systems using advanced AI technologies. Their website states:
Bringing together the technology industry leaders and academic institutions, the AI-RAN Alliance is dedicated to driving the enhancement of RAN performance and capability with AI. Moreover, we aim to optimize RAN asset utilization, and unlock new revenue streams. By pioneering AI-based innovations in RAN, we aspire to profitably propel the telecom industry towards 6G.
The alliance’s founding members include Amazon Web Services, Inc. (AWS), Arm, DeepSig Inc. (DeepSig), Telefonaktiebolaget LM Ericsson (Ericsson), Microsoft Corporation (Microsoft), Nokia, Northeastern University, NVIDIA, Samsung Electronics, SoftBank Corp. (SoftBank) and T-Mobile USA, Inc. (T-Mobile).
The group’s mission is to enhance mobile network efficiency, reduce power consumption, and retrofit existing infrastructure, setting the stage for unlocking new economic opportunities for telecom companies with AI, facilitated by 5G and 6G.
Image Courtesy of the AI RAN Alliance.
Purpose:
The AI RAN Alliance is dedicated to eliminating the inefficiencies of traditional RAN systems by embedding AI directly into network infrastructures. This shift will enable, for example, dynamic resource allocation, predictive maintenance, and proactive network management.
Industry Benefits:
Enhanced Network Efficiency: Real-time optimized bandwidth allocation and improved user experiences.
Economic Advantages: Cost savings from AI-driven automation and reduced energy consumption.
Innovative Revenue Opportunities: New services such as real-time AI Assistants on your mobile devices.
Key Focus Areas:
- AI for RAN
- AI on RAN (RAN for AI)
- AI and RAN
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New AI RAN Alliance Chairman:
On August 15, 2024, the AI RAN Alliance appointed Dr. Alex Jinsung Choi, Principal Fellow of SoftBank Corp.’s Research Institute of Advanced Technology as Chairman.
“The AI-RAN Alliance is set to transform telecommunications through AI-RAN advancements, increased efficiency, and new economic opportunities,” said Choi. “As Chair, I’m excited to lead this AI-RAN initiative, working with industry leaders to enhance mobile networks, reduce power consumption, and modernize infrastructure with 5G and 6G with AI/ML. Our goal is to drive societal progress through AI-RAN, transitioning from traditional to next-generation communications infrastructure.”
Satadal Bhattacharjee, Sr. Director of Marketing, Infrastructure BU, ARM, said, “We’re excited to collaborate with Choi, the Chair of the AI-RAN Alliance. Like Choi, we believe that AI will fundamentally change the way wireless services are deployed, fostering broad innovation and enhancing operational efficiency. We look forward to working with key industry leaders from silicon to software to fulfill the promise of ubiquitous AI and 6G.”
Jim Shea, Co-founder and CEO of DeepSig, said, “As a pioneer in AI-native communications together with his prior experience growing the O-RAN ALLIANCE, Choi will lead this important initiative that is shaping the future of intelligent radio access networks. DeepSig’s extensive AI/ML wireless expertise will play a key role in this exciting collaboration to leverage advanced technologies to help the industry unlock unprecedented network efficiency and accelerate innovation.”
Mathias Riback, VP & Head of Advanced Technology U.S., Ericsson, said, “I’m thrilled to welcome Dr. Choi as Chair of the AI-RAN Alliance. As a non-standardization organization, the Alliance can uniquely complement the work of existing SDOs by focusing on shaping innovative use cases that integrate AI with RAN. In addition to realizing benefits from AI in RAN implementations, it will be important to advance ‘AI on RAN’ use cases, where mobile networks play a critical role in enabling AI applications. Ericsson is fully committed to fostering a collaborative environment that unites all players in the evolving AI ecosystem to shape the future of telecom together.”
Shawn Hakl, VP of 5G Strategy, Microsoft, said, “At Microsoft, we recognize artificial intelligence (AI) as a pivotal technology of our era. We are excited to be a part of the AI-RAN Alliance and are particularly pleased to see Choi step into the role of Chair. Choi’s leadership will be key as we collaborate to leverage AI in optimizing RAN infrastructure investments and expanding the capabilities of RAN to introduce new AI-driven services for modern mobile applications.”
Ari Kynäslahti, Head of Strategy and Technology, Mobile Networks at Nokia commented, “Nokia is proud to be part of the AI-RAN Alliance and contribute towards integrating AI into radio access networks. The potential of AI to optimize networks, predict and resolve issues, and enhance performance and service quality is significant. As we embark on this transformative journey, collaboration is essential to harness our collective expertise. We are pleased to see Dr. Alex Choi appointed to this role, and look forward to him guiding our efforts to achieve these goals.”
Tommaso Melodia, William L. Smith Professor, Northeastern University, said, “We are pleased to have Choi as the Chair of the AI-RAN Alliance, leading our efforts to transform the industry. Choi has been a strong advocate for the evolution towards a more open, software-driven, and AI-integrated future. Under Choi’s leadership, the AI-RAN Alliance is set to fast-track the development of new services and use cases by leveraging openness, softwarization, and AI integration to enhance network performance, energy efficiency, spectrum sharing, and security, ultimately redefining the landscape of global communications.”
Soma Velayutham, GM, AI and Telecoms, NVIDIA, said, “The AI-RAN Alliance is a critical initiative for advancing the convergence of AI and 5G/6G technologies to drive innovation in mobile networks. The consortium’s new leadership will bring a fresh perspective and focus on delivering the next generation of connectivity.”
Dr. Ardavan Tehrani, Samsung Research, AI-RAN Alliance Board of Directors Vice Chair, said, “We are excited to have Dr. Alex Choi leading the AI-RAN Alliance as the Chair of the Board. The Alliance will play a pivotal role in fostering collaboration, driving innovation, and transforming future 6G networks utilizing AI. Under Dr. Choi’s leadership, the Alliance will strive to deliver substantial value to end users and operators through pioneering AI-based use cases and innovations.”
Ryuji Wakikawa, VP and Head of Research Institute of Advanced Technology, SoftBank Corp., said, “SoftBank is committed to realizing an AI-powered network infrastructure, and we strongly believe that Choi’s extensive background and expertise will be a great force in advancing AI-RAN technology and driving significant progress for the mobile industry in this AI era with lightning speed.”
John Saw, EVP and CTO, T-Mobile, said, “We are thrilled to have Alex Choi as Chair of the AI-RAN Alliance. AI is advancing at an unprecedented rate and with our 5G network advantage we have a unique opportunity to harness this momentum. By developing solutions that make the most of both RAN and AI on GPUs — and working alongside Choi and the top industry leaders within the Alliance — we believe there is potential for change that will revolutionize the industry.”
Dr. Akihiro Nakao, Professor, The University of Tokyo, said, “Dr. Alex Jinsung Choi’s appointment as Chair of the AI-RAN Alliance represents a pivotal step in advancing AI within the telecommunications sector. His leadership is expected to unite academic and industry efforts, nurturing the next wave of innovators who will drive the future of AI and telecommunications. This initiative will not only fast-track the adoption of AI across diverse applications but also foster international collaboration and set new standards for efficiency, energy management, resilience, and the development of AI-driven services that will reshape the telecommunications industry and benefit society worldwide.”
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References:
https://ai-ran.org/news/industry-leaders-in-ai-and-wireless-form-ai-ran-alliance/
AI sparks huge increase in U.S. energy consumption and is straining the power grid; transmission/distribution as a major problem
Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024
Nokia’s 760 global private networking contracts are mostly 4G-LTE Advanced
Backgrounder:
Private Wireless Radio Access Network (RAN) revenue growth slowed in the fourth quarter of 2023 on a year-over-year basis. However, full-year revenues accelerated by approximately 40% in 2023, propelling private wireless to comprise around 2% of the overall RAN market.
“Private wireless RANs are now growing at a formidable pace, in contrast to public RAN and enterprise WLAN – both segments are projected to contract in 2024,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group in April.
The top 3 Private Wireless RAN suppliers in 2023 were Huawei, Nokia, and Ericsson. Excluding China, they were Nokia, Ericsson, and Samsung.
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Nokia leads in Private RANs:
Nokia recently told Fierce Network that it signed 30 new private networking contracts in the second quarter of 2024. Nokia has said that it has signed more than 760 private network contracts around the world. NGIC, Sigma Lithium and Solis are some of the most recent names it has signed.
Nokia said that 78% of its private network business is based on 4G LTE-Advanced [1.], compared to 18% being 5G only, and the remaining 4% combining the two broadband cellular technologies.
Note 1. In October 2010, LTE-Advanced successfully passed the ITU-R’s evaluation process and was found to meet or exceed IMT-Advanced requirements. It was standardized a “IMT Advanced,” which support low to high mobility applications and a wide range of data rates in accordance with user and service demands in multiple user environments. IMT Advanced also has capabilities for high quality multimedia applications within a wide range of services and platforms, providing a significant improvement in performance and quality of service.
Image courtesy of Research Gate
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David de Lancellotti, VP of enterprise campus edge business at Nokia talked to Fierce about Nokia’s performance in the private networking space. “Thirty in Q2, and roughly 50 — a little more than 50 — in the first half,” he said of contracts signed.
“We kind of jumped into this a bit earlier than anybody else,” Nokia’s de Lancellotti explained. “I think we’ve always taken a real service provider approach in terms of quality, in terms of feature set [and] in terms of roadmap,” while noting Nokia’s “real drive to pick up the enterprise space.”
Industry verticals – transportation, energy and manufacturing – continue to “lead the way” for private networking contracts in Q2. “When we talk about transportation, I think that’s the port side of business, which continues to be strong for us,” David said.
References:
https://www.fierce-network.com/wireless/nokia
Private Wireless RAN Revenues up ~40 Percent in 2023, According to Dell’Oro Group
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LTE_Advanced
https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg5/rwp5d/imt-adv/Pages/default.aspx
https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Network-architecture-of-LTE-Advanced_fig1_333886291
