Omdia: Big increase in Gig internet subscribers in 2022; Top 25 countries ranked by Cable
Global gigabit internet subscriptions are expected to increase to 50 million in 2022, more than doubling from 24 million at the end of 2020, according to a new report from market research firm Omdia (owned by Informa).
The Omdia report states that accelerated fiber deployments are helping to drive an increase in gigabit connectivity.
“Demand for reliable broadband is set to drive growth in gigabit services, with fiber playing a key role,” said Peter Boyland, principal analyst, broadband at Omdia.
“There were fewer than 620 million fiber subscriptions globally at the end of 2020, but we expect these to grow to 719 million in 2022, or 62% of total subscriptions.” The majority of fiber internet subscribers are expected to be in China.
However, Omdia warns that service providers must “carefully consider market demand” for their gigabit strategies and make targeted investments in fiber.
“Service providers need to carefully plan and execute gigabit network rollout, analyzing a number of factors, including infrastructure challenges, market competition, and expected demand,” writes Omdia. “But this does not stop with network rollout – operators need to continually monitor potential competitors and constantly innovate, refresh, and build service offerings so they stay ahead of rivals.”
The analysts also point out the opportunity for vendors in the market who can help service providers build “future proof” networks. “Vendors can offer long-term solutions such as monitoring and automation tools to extend the operator/vendor relationship beyond network rollouts,” the report recommends.
Of course, what matters most to consumers is reliable service. According to Omdia’s Digital Consumer Insights survey, 36% of respondents said they were more reliant on broadband services during COVID-19, and 55% of respondents said reliability ranked top among the most important home broadband features.
All of this gigabit and fiber growth will impact broadband speeds for years to come. According to Omdia:
“In 2020, just 2% of broadband subscriptions were more than 1Gbps, but this is expected to double to 4% in 2022.”
–>See table below for the 25 countries with the fastest AVERAGE internet speeds, ranked by Cable. Note that none of them is close to 1Gbps.
The report says that subscribers with access to 500 Mbit/s-1 Gbit/s will increase from 15% in 2020 to 21% in 202, with 17% of broadband subscriptions projected to reach speeds over 1 Gbit/s by 2026.
While high-bandwidth entertainment like augmented and virtual reality (AR/VR) and gaming were thought to be the main drivers for ever-faster home broadband speeds in pre-pandemic times, Omdia’s report doesn’t think they are significantly important for gigabit Internet growth, referring to them just once as “other drivers.”
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Internet comparison site Cable has ranked the countries with the fastest broadband internet in the world based on over 1.1 billion speed tests across 224 countries and territories.
“The acceleration of the fastest countries in the world has finally plateaued this year as they reach FTTP pure fibre saturation. Increases in speed among the elite performers, then, can be attributed in greater part to uptake in many cases than to network upgrades. Meanwhile, though the countries occupying the bottom end of the table still suffer from extremely poor speeds, 2021’s figures do indicate that the situation is improving,” said Dan Howdle of Cable.
Here are the 25 countries with the fastest download speeds:
| 1 | Jersey | JE | WESTERN EUROPE | 274.27 |
| 2 | Liechtenstein | LI | WESTERN EUROPE | 211.26 |
| 3 | Iceland | IS | WESTERN EUROPE | 191.83 |
| 4 | Andorra | AD | WESTERN EUROPE | 164.66 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | GI | WESTERN EUROPE | 151.34 |
| 6 | Monaco | MC | WESTERN EUROPE | 144.29 |
| 7 | Macau | MO | ASIA (EX. NEAR EAST) | 128.56 |
| 8 | Luxembourg | LU | WESTERN EUROPE | 107.94 |
| 9 | Netherlands | NL | WESTERN EUROPE | 107.30 |
| 10 | Hungary | HU | EASTERN EUROPE | 104.07 |
| 11 | Singapore | SG | ASIA (EX. NEAR EAST) | 97.61 |
| 12 | Bermuda | BM | NORTHERN AMERICA | 96.54 |
| 13 | Japan | JP | ASIA (EX. NEAR EAST) | 96.36 |
| 14 | United States | US | NORTHERN AMERICA | 92.42 |
| 15 | Hong Kong | HK | ASIA (EX. NEAR EAST) | 91.04 |
| 16 | Spain | ES | WESTERN EUROPE | 89.59 |
| 17 | Sweden | SE | WESTERN EUROPE | 88.98 |
| 18 | Norway | NO | WESTERN EUROPE | 88.67 |
| 19 | France | FR | WESTERN EUROPE | 85.96 |
| 20 | New Zealand | NZ | OCEANIA | 85.95 |
| 21 | Malta | MT | WESTERN EUROPE | 85.20 |
| 22 | Estonia | EE | BALTICS | 84.72 |
| 23 | Aland Islands | AX | WESTERN EUROPE | 81.31 |
| 24 | Canada | CA | NORTHERN AMERICA | 79.96 |
| 25 | Belgium | BE | WESTERN EUROPE | 78.46 |
It is the fourth year of the assessment and the latest ranking uses data collected in the 12 months up to 30th June 2021 to evaluate internet speed by country.
References:
https://www.cable.co.uk/broadband/speed/worldwide-speed-league/
Heavy Reading: How network operators will deploy Open RAN and cloud native vRAN
Heavy Reading conducted an operator survey in association with Quanta Cloud Technology (QCT) to explore how and why operators are likely to deploy Open RAN. The data was collected in November 2021 and includes North American, European and Asian operator respondents in roughly equal proportions.
The first question in the survey that asked about the business justification for Open RAN. Here’s the result:
The lead response is for “faster greater control of feature development” with 25%, just ahead of “increase vendor diversity” at 21%, and “new service and monetization opportunities” at 20%.
The absence of an overriding reason to pursue open RAN is consistent with previous Heavy Reading operator surveys. These results indicate the business case will be founded on an accumulation of benefits that will deliver value relative to a classic, single-vendor RAN. They also point to the view that open RAN has not yet found — or at least, has not yet proven — a compelling business justification and that this diversity of views reflects an ongoing search for a business case.
Note that cost savings at 6% of respondents, indicates lower cost is not really a business reason to deploy Open RAN. There are likely two explanations for this:
- Open RAN has a similar bill of materials to classic single-vendor RAN. Ericsson and Nokia say Open RAN is more expensive than integrated, single vendor RAN.
- Operators in leading markets will not compromise on user experience simply to save a small percentage on RAN equipment costs.
With respect to cloud native vRAN (RAN software that is deployed in containers and centrally orchestrated) the survey asked when operators plan to deploy a containerized Distributed Unit (DU) vRAN application in their commercial network. 21% of respondents said they are “deploying now,” and a further 34% “will deploy within 1 year.”
While this response this looks overly optimistic, containerized DU products are now available and are commercially deployed and operational. Heavy Reading expects deployment of this technology to scale quickly. So even if this data seems too optimistic on the timeline, it is a good indicator of sentiment among operators that are likely to already be positive on vRAN.
Network operators must deploy RAN software — either in virtual machines, containers or both — on cloud infrastructure. A key question is which software infrastructure platform to use?
The chart below shows three leading operator preferences:
For vRAN software suppliers and DU server vendors that want to help accelerate open vRAN deployments, the three main cloud environments to pre-integrate with appear to be Red Hat, Wind River and VMware.
These are well-known solutions in the telco cloud and core network, and it is logical operators will want to extend their existing telco cloud to the edge to support vRAN. An interesting third option also emerges from this data. Wind River, which offers cloud infrastructure software focused on smaller footprint edge devices that can be optimized for RAN applications, also scores highly at 31%. This is consistent with several Tier 1 operator vRAN deals that reference Wind River publicly.
To learn more about this Heavy Reading operator survey, register for the archived Light Reading webinar on Designing and Deploying Cloud Native Open RAN.
— Gabriel Brown, Principal Analyst, Heavy Reading
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A Red Hat survey found that communication service providers (CSPs) now realize the role and benefits of cloud-native network functions (CNFs) and container-based cloud platforms as the means to advance their infrastructures. Benefits include features and efficiency, automation, scalability, and flexibility that will help further lower overall costs. Respondents confirmed their rollout of 5G services would utilize container-based 5G infrastructure, with three-quarters of those respondents indicating the use of container-based platforms in over 25% of their networks by 2022.
In a recent report from Heavy Reading based on a survey of respondents from 77 CSPs, the steady uptick of service providers evolving their RAN has been significant, with the following observations:
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50% of service providers have deployed a vRAN in over a quarter of their network compared to the fourth quarter of 2019, when only 35% of respondents had achieved the same rollout.
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vRAN deployment has doubled in service provider 4G-only networks and vRAN in service provider 5G-only networks has increased by 66% since the survey in Q4 of 2019.
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By the end of 2023 , the above numbers are expected to be flipped, with the majority of service providers deploying vRAN into both their 4G and 5G networks and not 4G alone.
As service providers’ experience with network transformation grows, they are embracing horizontal cloud platforms over vertically integrated solutions. The increased flexibility provided by containers, coupled with automation, can take full advantage of horizontal platforms.
A common cloud-native application platform deployed across any footprint and any cloud provides a simplified operational model and allows greater choice of CNFs. This is important to fit service providers’ business needs and to deploy and scale where needed, so they can make future additions and changes more easily. A Kuberenetes-based platform offers other direct benefits for RAN workloads, such as reduced latency, higher throughput and precision timing.
In summary, service providers are evolving their RAN to deliver new 5G services that are adaptable, scalable and efficient. Successful vRAN deployments will build upon a telco-grade container platform solution that takes automation and flexibility to the next level. With that, disaggregated vRAN architectures can be optimized to deliver the lowest latency and highest performance. This infrastructure needs to be a consistent cloud-native platform that can support multiple RAN functions and that spans the entire service provider network from edge to core to cloud.
Red Hat OpenShift is an application platform that not only boosts developer productivity but can orchestrate both containers and VMs in production environments. OpenShift helps simplify workflows and reduce overall total cost of ownership (TCO). As an answer to ever-changing marketplace demands, Red Hat’s extensive partner ecosystem provides choices to select software functions and hardware from multiple vendors, while accommodating present needs and anticipating those in the future.
References:
https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/designing-and-deploying-cloud-native-open-ran/a/d-id/774302?
https://www.redhat.com/en/blog/adoption-evolved-vran-propels-network-enhancements
https://www.redhat.com/en/resources/virtualized-ran-insights-2021-analyst-paper
China’s telecom revenue: +8.1% YoY from Jan-Nov 2021
With the caveat that you can’t trust any economic numbers reported by China’s government………….
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology says that the country’s telecommunications industry registered robust growth in revenue in the first 11 months of this year, according to “official data.”
The combined industrial revenue rose 8.1% year on year (YoY) to over 1.35 trillion yuan (about 212 billion U.S. dollars) in the January-November period.
The growth was down 0.1 percentage points from the figure for the January-October period, the data showed.
By the end of November, China’s three state owned telecom giants — China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom — had over 1.64 billion mobile phone users, a net increase of 47.92 million users compared with the end of last year. The number of 5G mobile subscribers reached 497 million, up 298 million from the end of last year, according to the ministry.
A poster of commercial 5G applications shown outside a branch of China Telecom in Beijing. Photo Credit: SHEN BOHAN/XINHUA
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China’s big three telecom companies also saw a steady increase in the number of fixed broadband internet users by the end of November, with subscribers rising by 51.85 million from the end of last year to stand at 535 million.
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As of 2021, China is the only country known to work towards a single-stack IPv6 network. The country announced plans in 2017 to lead globally in IPV6 adoption by 2025, and achieve full nationwide rollout by 2030. Experts believe that such a plan to widely adopt IPv6 for the country’s internet infrastructure, can help China to increase its leadership in 5G and Internet of Things (IoT) across multiple varying industries.
References:
http://www.china.org.cn/business/2021-12/26/content_77953625.htm
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telecommunications_industry_in_China
Reliance Jio trials connected robotics on its “indigenously developed” 5G network
Aayush Bhatnagar, SVP, of Reliance Jio said in a Linkedin post Friday:
Jio has successfully performed trials of Connected Robotics over its indigenously developed 5G RAN and 5G SA core network. This underlines the true potential of 5G Standalone networks in realizing real-life industrial use cases.
Jio 5G Robotics have implemented a wide canvas of services – from heavy lifting and logistics at manufacturing warehouses, to healthcare robots assisting medical staff – from remote ultrasound enablement to industrial automation robots.
This development opens up exciting possibilities for value creation in Industry 4.0, with direct relevance to businesses and the economy.
Jio’s Bhatnagar has said India’s top telco has undertaken use case trials such as Voice and Messaging over 5G NR (VoNR) using its own home grown 5G RAN and Core network, which it plans to export or license once its 5G technology is tested and deployed throughout India. Of course, that can’t happen till after the repeatedly delayed 5G spectrum auction (now scheduled for April or May 2022 if not delayed yet again).
Earlier this month, Jio reported it successfully trialed connected drones on its indigenous 5G network, the telco’s senior vice president Aayush Bhatnagar said. The trial involved a precision command and control of drones over 5G using a fleet management system running in the Cloud to perform tasks such as image recognition, track-and-trace, discrete payload pickup, and delivery, drone route sorties, video imagery, real-time drone control, and other applications, the executive added.
“5G-connected drones will enable future use cases across industries and enterprises,” Bhatnagar said. “At Jio, we have taken another major stride in “Making 5G real” – beyond speed tests and demos. Jio has successfully conducted trials of connected drones on its indigenous 5G network,” Bhatnagar said in a Linkedin post.
Jio has not disclosed all the other companies are helping to design, develop and test their indigenous 5G RAN and Core network. In July, Intel said that it is helping Reliance Jio make the transition from 4G to 5G as part of their 5G infrastructure deal. Intel and Jio are collaborating in the areas of 5G radio, core, cloud, edge and artificial intelligence.
“…our collaboration spans those areas, and it’s co-innovation. So, we have got our engineering and business unit teams working closely with Reliance Jio in those areas. And we are committed towards helping customers and partners like Reliance Jio to make the transition from 4G to 5G,” Prakash Mallya, vice president and Managing Director of sales, marketing and communications group at Intel told Economic Times.
Intel’s investment arm, Intel Capital, had in 2020 invested Rs 1,894.50 crore to buy a 0.39% equity stake in Jio Platforms.
While speaking at Reliance Industries Ltd’s 44th AGM, RIL Chairman Mukesh Ambani said that:
“Jio’s engineers have developed a 100 per cent home-grown and comprehensive 5G solution that is fully cloud native, software defined, and digitally managed. Jio’s ‘Made in India‘ solution is complete and globally competitive.”
Ambani also said that his company has achieved 1Gbps download speed on its 5G trial network.
As for Jio’s 5G competitors:
- Bharti Airtel previously said that it was collaborating with global consulting firm Accenture, along with Amazon Web Service (AWS), Cisco, Ericsson, Google Cloud, Nokia, Tata Consultancy, and unnamed others to demonstrate enterprise-grade use cases using high-speed, low-latency 5G networks.
- Airtel has been working on the 5 G-based solutions with Apollo Hospitals, Flipkart, and other manufacturing companies.
- Vodafone Idea (VI) has partnered with Nokia and Ericsson to work on several 5 G-powered applications, including enhanced mobile broadband (emBB), ultra-reliable low latency communications (uRLLC), multi-access edge computing (MEC), and AR/VR.
5G trials began earlier this year in May and in June:
- Jio reported achieving speeds over 1Gbps during the trial.
- Airtel also reported achieving over 1Gbps peak speed during its 5G network trial.
- VI claims to achieve a peak 5G speed of 3.7Gbps on the mmWave spectrum during the network trials in Pune.
Last month, India’s Department of Telecom (DoT) granted a six-month extension for 5G trials in India to telecom operators, including Jio, Airtel, and VI, upon their request. The telecom operators are currently conducting 5G trials in various parts of the country and have achieved tremendous results. However, the extension means that the 5G spectrum auction won’t happen anytime soon. So any 5G commercial launch is still a long way off in India.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6879954283375267840/
Sequans clever CBRS module for Green-GO Digital’s Beltpack Sports
Paris, France based Sequans Communications, a leading provider of cellular IoT chips and modules for massive and broadband IoT, announced that Green-GO Digital is using its Cassiopeia CB410L CBRS module to connect its new Beltpack Sports wireless intercom communications device.
Cassiopeia CB410L Module Highlights:
- All-in-one standalone module
- Small 32 x 29 mm leadless chip carrier (LCC) package
- CBRS networks in USA on LTE band 48
- MNO networks worldwide on LTE bands 42/43
- FCC
- 3GPP Release 10
- Easy integration into IoT, M2M and broadband applications
- Drivers compatible with Linux, Android,Google Chrome, MAC OS, Windows and a wide range of embedded and realtime OSes
- Comprehensive set of interfaces
CB610L and CB410L are used to add LTE connectivity to electronics devices for industrial Internet of Things (IoT), Machine-to-Machine (M2M) and broadband consumer applications. The LCC package allows for a cost-efficient platform and simple PCB design. The modules support a wide variety of interfaces, including USB 2.0 device and UARTs.
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The Green-GO Beltpack Sports is designed to facilitate coach to coach communications in professional sports teams. It is connected by LTE technology and designed specifically to run on CBRS (citizens broadband radio service), a new block of spectrum allocated by the FCC to enable private LTE networks on a shared spectrum basis. CBRS provides enterprises in many sectors, including sports, government, education, industry, and agriculture, with an affordable way to set up private networks for their organizations without subscribing to commercial wireless service.
“It’s exciting to see our technology connecting the new Green-GO device now being used in the world of professional sports,” said Bertrand Debray, EVP of Sequans’ Broadband IoT division. “The Green-GO Beltpack is designed with features that facilitate ease of use on the playing field, and it shows how well a private LTE network using CBRS spectrum can meet the communications needs of enterprises like pro sports teams.”
“We selected Sequans’ technology to connect the Green-GO Beltpack Sports because Sequans is an expert in cellular IoT connectivity with particular expertise in solutions for 3.5 GHz, the frequency of CBRS, said Joost van Eenbergen, Principal and Founder of ELC Lighting BV, manufacturer of Green-GO! Digital Intercom. “Sequans’ IoT module is proven reliable in LTE devices and networks all over the world, and it has all the capabilities we required for design into the Beltpack, including small size, low power consumption for long battery life, and most important, reliability.”
The Green-GO CBRS/LTE Beltpack Sports has features designed specifically for use outdoors, including a backlit display for easier viewing in sunlight, weather-tight buttons for protection from rain and for use with gloves. Its four big buttons can be used all as talk buttons or as a combination of talk and call.
The Beltpack can be easily combined with a wired system by using a Green-GO Bridge. There is no need for a separate interface to connect the Beltpack to an existing wired network. By simply plugging in the bridge and cloning the configuration to the Beltpacks, the wireless device is fully integrated. Each Green-Go Beltpack connects to a port on a bridge as a remote user, providing the same user interface and audio quality of a wired beltpack, with the security and reliable connectivity of LTE.
“As the exclusive US distributor of Green-GO! Digital Intercom, we are excited to introduce this revolutionary product through our network of authorized dealers,” said Jim Casey, President of Nova Lume LLC. “Having worked with the premier professional sports league in the US for almost two years to implement this product across all 32 teams in time for the 2021 season, while dealing with the pandemic restrictions, was a remarkable accomplishment and prepared us to provide this solution to a wide range of use cases needing secure, reliable, wireless intercom.”
Sequans Cassiopeia CB410L/CB610L Modules:
Sequans’ Cassiopeia CBRS modules are available in two versions:
1) Cassiopeia CB410L with LTE Category 4 throughput, and
2) Cassiopeia CB610L with LTE Category 6 throughput.
Both modules are standalone all-in-one solutions delivering robust LTE network connectivity. The module design benefits from Sequans’ long and extensive experience in 3.5 GHz solutions. The module supports CBRS networks in the USA on LTE band 48 and MNO networks worldwide on LTE bands 42/43.
The Sequans Cassiopeia CBRS modules feature unique LCC (leadless chip carrier) packaging and a compact size, and they are OnGo certified.
The new Green-GO Digital Wireless Beltpack Sports will be on display at CES 2022 in Sequans meeting room at the Venetian at CES TECH WEST. For more information or to schedule a meeting at CES, please email [email protected].
About Sequans:
Sequans Communications S.A. is a leading developer and supplier of cellular IoT connectivity solutions, providing chips and modules for 5G/4G massive and broadband IoT. For 5G/4G massive IoT applications, Sequans provides a comprehensive product portfolio based on its flagship Monarch LTE-M/NB-IoT and Calliope Cat 1 chip platforms, featuring industry-leading low power consumption, a large set of integrated functionalities, and global deployment capability. For 5G/4G broadband IoT applications, Sequans offers a product portfolio based on its Cassiopeia Cat 4/Cat 6 4G and high-end Taurus 5G chip platforms, optimized for low-cost residential, enterprise, and industrial applications. Founded in 2003, Sequans is based in Paris, France with additional offices in the United States, United Kingdom, Israel, Hong Kong, Singapore, Finland, Taiwan, South Korea, and China.
References:
Omdia: Regulatory activity to impact telecom in 2022; Global 5G status
According to market research dynamo Omdia, 2022 will be rife with regulatory activity that will impact the telecommunications market for years to come.
“As technology evolves, regulation will become more important than ever in the TMT industry,” said Sarah McBride, senior analyst for regulation at Omdia.
Omdia identified several trends it says will be “at the heart of regulatory activity” next year, including spectrum licensing, fiber networks, the digital divide and 6G (even though 5G spectrum has not been standardized by ITU-R in a revision to M.1036).
Regarding the digital divide (between the broadband haves and have nots), Omdia says “governments should learn from the pandemic and recognize the need for these broadband services to be affordable to all.”
The Omdia analysts say that governments must define a “comprehensive national digital strategy that includes providing state-aid tools to improve broadband availability and affordability.”
Such a strategy should go beyond deployment to “ensure citizens can use connectivity transformatively to bring about innovation and growth.” Doing so will encourage more deployment and investment, writes Omdia.
However, to avoid too much government intervention, Omdia also stresses the need for cooperation by service providers.
“Experience shows that market-led development, not a reliance on government intervention, is the most effective model for effective allocation of resources. However, economic viability is lower in some rural and sparsely populated areas than in populous areas,” Omdia said. The firm recommends that network operators collaborate by sharing infrastructure to reduce deployment costs and create shared wireless networks to “remove the need for regulators to set ambitious coverage obligations as part of spectrum licenses or universal service obligations.”
According to Omdia’s tracker for 5G networks, more than 150 5G networks have been launched around the world to date, which the research firm says will continue to drive demand for more spectrum.
“5G will profoundly affect society because of its ultrafast speeds, low latency, and high reliability, which enable digital transformation and support new use cases,” writes Omdia.
Regulators need to effectively manage spectrum allocation, “allowing access to the right amount of internationally harmonized spectrum (e.g., 700MHz, 3.6GHz, and 26GHz bands in the EU) in a timely manner to keep costs down.”
As operators continue to build out their 5G networks, Omdia tells policymakers it’s important to plan ahead on 6G standards, given the role these networks will play in the digital economy and the danger posed by a lack of cohesion.
Specifically, the firm warns against further splintering the telecom and Internet ecosystem, or what it calls “the splinternet.”
“It is especially important that regulators and policymakers prepare for future network generations by ensuring agreement is reached on 6G standards. A fragmentation of standards must be avoided to prevent any further separation of the telecoms and internet ecosystem, a ‘splinternet’,” writes Omdia.
Acknowledging that plans for 6G are in their infancy, Omdia further tells policymakers to begin identifying appropriate spectrum bands, though it notes that such plans “will need to be balanced with the need to release spectrum for 5G.”
Part of the rush to deploy high-speed internet everywhere includes a migration to fiber, whether through new builds or upgrades of existing cable networks. Omdia says that as network operators migrate to fiber, regulators should focus on promoting competition, pricing strategies and raising awareness amongst consumers about fiber access.
The firm further states that regulators should include fiber access in wholesale obligations, “once sufficient fiber coverage is reached.”
It’s important for network operators to collaborate with regulators on network upgrade plans and give wholesale customers advance warning to avoid disruption.
“Operators need to give their wholesale customers a sufficient notice period when withdrawing copper networks. This includes providing formal notifications that outline the timeframes involved, the replacement products on offer, and the new price terms,” writes Omdia.
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In a separate report titled, 2022 Trends to Watch: Global 5G, Omdia says that 5G network rollouts are still in the early stages, especially in developing regions.
“But there are compelling reasons for telcos to commit to 5G so they can differentiate around an improved network experience, as well as realize network efficiencies and lower operating costs. Moreover, 5G’s enhancements over 4G – most noticeably speed and latency – will come to be appreciated by consumers more next year as an increasing number of data-intensive services and applications become popular in the mass market,” the research firm said.
“A surprise to many next year may be the rapid emergence of satellite to augment telcos’ terrestrial network coverage,” Omdia observed.
“A key driver for hybrid satellite-cellular deployments is the need for ubiquitous high-speed data coverage, something which telcos can greatly benefit from if their rivals’ 5G network coverage remains patchy.”
Major telcos including BT, Deutsche Telekom, Telecom Italia and Verizon signed significant deals with satellite internet providers in 2021 to offer a hybrid approach to targeted residential, enterprise and industrial markets.
Omdia believes that the likely success of these satellite internet initiatives could jump-start a flurry of new activity in this area in 2022.
“Although most end users aren’t rushing to buy 5G, the quality of their network experience in terms of reliability, speed, and coverage is increasingly important to them. As such, 5G offers telcos a better opportunity than 4G to differentiate, especially for ones that can claim they offer the best-in-market network experience,” Omdia said.
Omdia thinks that partnership strategies will be even more important for telco 5G success in 2022.
“How good telcos are at partnering, whether for content, service, or technology development, will increasingly define how successful they are in consumer, enterprise, and industrial markets. Because of its enhanced capabilities over 4G, 5G enables telcos to offer much more, and they will have to partner effectively to capitalize on this.”
“Except for 5G MEC (really ?), the ecosystem and markets for advanced 5G technologies are still in their infancy. However, 5G front-runners are already launching them, placing them in a strong position to gain a first-mover advantage when the market is ready to adopt them,” Omdia said.
References:
https://www.broadbandworldnews.com/document.asp?doc_id=774240&
https://techblog.comsoc.org/2021/12/18/etsi-mec-standard-explained-part-ii/
Telco business models must change as Big Tech generates the majority of internet traffic
In a blog post today, network intelligence firm Sandvine states that Google, Facebook, and other ‘top-6’ digital brands generate more than 56% of global network traffic. The company’s upcoming 2022 “Global Internet Phenomenon Report,” takes this a step further by showing that the top-6 – Google, Facebook, Netflix, Amazon, Microsoft, and Apple – are generating more than 56% of global network traffic.
For the first time, the biggest digital players account for more traffic than everyone else (telcos, MSOs/cablecos, satellite internet, state & local governments, municipalities, etc), combined! And that trend is likely to continue to increase. as OpenVault recently reported that average monthly home internet data consumption in the U.S. rose to 434.9 GBytes in the third quarter of 2021, up 13% over the same period in 2020.
The chart below shows the percentage of traffic that the six biggest Internet companies generated across global networks.
Source: Sandvine
For Communications service providers (CSPs), this is a watershed moment: they must deliver the benefits of 5G (are there any?), cloud, the IoT, AR/VR, AI, the metaverse (?), etc. and they must assure a good QoE (Quality of Experience) for the current and next generation of apps.
Sandvine believes the shift to more mission-critical enterprise and industry services will trigger a need for flawless connectivity (ultra high reliability/availability) and optimal performance for manufacturing robotics, remote healthcare, autonomous driving, public safety, and other critical services.
Recently, the CEOs of Deutsche Telekom, Telefonica, Vodafone, and 11 other influential service providers published an open letter stating that “a large and increasing part of network traffic is generated and monetized by Big Tech platforms.”
They cited the fact that it is the telecommunications sector that is bearing the “continuous, intensive network investment and planning” that ultimately drives the unprecedented profitability of the biggest tech brands.
“A large and increasing part of network traffic is generated and monetized by Big Tech platforms, but it requires continuous, intensive network investment and planning by the telecommunications sector,” the CEOs said in the joint statement seen by Reuters.
In other words, telcos are subsidizing Big Tech who reap the benefits of those same telco networks. MSOs/cablecos broadband internet providers, like Comcast, Charter, and Cox Communications, could likely make the same argument.
The CEOs did not mention any big tech firms by name, but Reuters understands that U.S.-listed giants such as Netflix and Facebook are companies they have in mind.
According to Reuters, the investments in Europe’s telco sector rose to 52.5 billion euros ($59.4 billion) last year, a six-year high. Those investments include the networks, 5G trials, licenses, planning, and deployment that fuel app QoE. In return, the European telcos received modest usage fees from subscribers.
In addition to wanting a fair ROI for their substantial investments, CSPs also want to protect their networks and brands. The recent Facebook, AWS, and Tesla outages demonstrated how pronounced and far reaching the impacts on networks can be now that apps and services are far more intertwined and interdependent than ever before. QoE for both related and unrelated apps and services were affected.
Source: Sandvine
Sandvine says CSPs need predictive insights that help identify macro trends across their millions of subscribers, billions of devices, and thousands of applications to answer key questions that can drive business actions and outcomes.
Here are a few such questions CSPs should address, according to Sandvine:
- Which apps are consuming and generating the most traffic, downstream and upstream?
- What’s the impact of app complexity in terms of mashups, embedded video, payments, chat, and other features?
- How are QUIC (a new multiplexed transport built on top of UDP), HTTP/3, iCloud Private Relay, and encryption affecting the network?
- Who are the “heavy users” in the upgrade from 4G to 5G?
The above questions are just some that Sandvine will explore in detail in their upcoming “Global Internet Phenomenon Report.”
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Meanwhile, a growing number of professionals are calling for “Big Tech” to contribute to the Universal Service Fund (USF). The FCC instituted the USF in 1997 to help fund the construction of broadband networks in rural and unserved areas of the country, and to help low-income Americans afford telecom services. But the primary sources of funding for the USF are network operators (which redirect the USF fees paid by their customers each month).
FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr said that the best way to fund the FCC’s Universal Service Fund advanced communications subsidies is to make Big Tech pay the freight. Citing a new study from economist Hal Singer and Ted Tatos, Carr said that the current method of assessing dwindling traditional telecom services is unsustainable, and that shifting to assessing wireless broadband would continue to hit consumers in the pocketbook–the USF fees are passed on by telecoms onto their customers’ bills.
Car argues that the FCC should make Big Tech companies like Google and Facebook pay the USF fees, which would be very difficult for them to pass on to consumers and which would, “significantly reduce consumers’ costs, properly align incentives, and unlike assessing wireline broadband revenues, would not raise consumers’ monthly bill for internet services,” Carr said citing the study,
References:
https://www.sandvine.com/blog/telco-business-models-reaching-tipping-point-in-digital-era
https://www.nexttv.com/news/fccs-carr-make-big-tech-pay-for-usf-subsidies
Dell’Oro: 3Q21 Total Telecom Equipment Market up 6% year-over-year & 9% year-to-date
Dell’Oro Group just completed their 3Q21 reporting period for all the Telecommunications Infrastructure programs covered. Those include: Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core & Radio Access Network (RAN), SP Router & Switch.
The data contained in these reports suggest that the positive trends that characterized the broader telecom equipment market in the first half of 2021 extended into the third quarter, propelling the overall telecom equipment market to a sixth consecutive quarter of year-over-year (Y/Y) growth in revenues.
Preliminary estimates suggest the overall telecom equipment market advanced 6% Y/Y in the quarter and 9% Y/Y year-to-date (YTD). The growth in the quarter was underpinned by healthy demand for both wireless and wireline equipment.
While the majority of the suppliers were able to navigate the supply chain situation fairly well in the first half, supply chain disruptions had a greater impact in the third quarter, though clearly this was not enough to derail the positive momentum that has characterized the market over the past six quarters.
The analysis contained in these reports suggests the collective global share of the leading suppliers remained relatively stable between 2020 and 1Q21-3Q21, with the top seven vendors comprising around ~80% of the total market.
Ongoing efforts by the US government to curb the rise of Huawei is starting to show in the numbers, especially outside of China. At the same time, Huawei continued to dominate the global market, still nearly as large as Ericsson and Nokia combined.
Overall, we believe ZTE and Samsung are trending upward while Huawei is losing some ground YTD relative to 2020.
Additional key takeaways from the 3Q21 reporting period include:
- Positive market sentiment in the third quarter was driven by strong growth in RAN and Broadband Access, which was more than enough to offset weaker trends in Optical Transport.
- RAN and Broadband Access are also the strongest growth vehicles for the YTD period, fueled by surging demand for 5G, PON, and FWA CPEs.
- With the pandemic resurging and the visibility surrounding the supply chain weakening, the Dell’Oro analyst team is expecting near-term growth to decelerate – the overall telecom equipment market is now projected to advance 2% in 2022, down from 8% in 2021.
Dell’Oro Group telecommunication infrastructure research programs consist of the following: Broadband Access, Microwave Transmission & Mobile Backhaul, Mobile Core Networks, Radio Access Network, Optical Transport, and Service Provider (SP) Router & Switch.
Dell’Oro: Ethernet adapter port shipments declined in Q3-2021 but expected to grow in 2022
After declining in the 3rd quarter of 2021, Ethernet adapter port shipments are forecast to return to double-digit growth in 2022, as supply restrictions ease, and as Smart NICs create growth opportunities.
“Ethernet adapter port shipments declined 7% year-over-year in 3Q 2021, as vendors faced various component sourcing challenges, with lead-times extending beyond 52 weeks in some extreme cases,” said Baron Fung, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group.
“In contrast, Ethernet controller shipments have approached record levels, as we believe server vendors are increasing their inventories of controllers in anticipation of stronger cloud and enterprise demand ahead,” added Fung.
Additional highlights from the 3Q 2021 Ethernet Controller and Adapter report include:
- Total Ethernet controller and adapter revenue forecast to grow 27 percent in 2021.
- Major cloud service providers are upgrading server connectivity to 100 and 200 Gbps port speeds in conjunction with network upgrades.
- Smart NICs developed internally by cloud service providers, such as Amazon and Microsoft, for their data centers have accounted for the majority of the shipments.
- Vendors such as Marvell and Nvidia, are expected to increase their share in 2022 as customer qualifications make progress.
“Outside of the hyperscale cloud service providers, the smartNIC market is still in its early stages,” Fung said, as customers explore viable use cases for them in their data centers.
Most adapter vendors today either offer smartNICs or are sampling them. Besides cloud providers, smartNIC vendors include Marvell, Intel, Xilinx, Nvidia, Napatech, Pensando, Fungible, Ethernity, and Broadcom.
Most of them “are trying to grow their smartNIC share in the tier two cloud, enterprise, and telco segments,” Fung said.
The Dell’Oro Group Ethernet Controller and Adapter Quarterly Report provide complete, in-depth coverage of the market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue; average selling prices; and unit and port shipments by speed (1 Gbps, 10 Gbps, 25 Gbps, 40 Gbps, 50 Gbps, 100 Gbps, and 200 Gbps) for Ethernet controllers and adapters. The report also covers Smart NIC controllers and adapters. To purchase this report, please contact us at [email protected].
References:
Ethernet Adapter Shipments Stalled by Supply Constraints in 3Q 2021, According to Dell’Oro Group
Synergy Research: Microsoft and Amazon (AWS) Dominate IT Vendor Revenue & Growth; Popularity of Multi-cloud in 2021
Synergy Research Group’s detailed review of 2021 IT markets identified 13 vendors that generated over $25 billion in annual revenues from sales of technology to enterprises and service providers. Microsoft was the leader by a wide margin with annual revenues of $120 billion from its enterprise customers, followed by IBM, Amazon, Huawei and Cisco.
Amazon Web Services led the way in annual revenue growth, with 36% growth. Salesforce and Microsoft followed with each grew their revenues by well over 20%. None of the other leaders managed to achieve double-digit growth rates, with Cisco coming the closest.
At the other end of the spectrum Huawei saw its revenues from enterprise and service provider customers fall by 9%, as it was hurt by geopolitical issues and technology supply restrictions. While Huawei’s revenues dropped, business levels at both Ericson and Nokia were mostly flat, demonstrating the relative weakness of service provider sales compared with the enterprise sector.
2021 Vendor Ranking. Source: Synergy Research Group
In aggregate the thirteen vendors generated 2021 revenues of $613 billion from enterprise and service provider customers, up 10% from 2021. The analysis is based on Synergy’s detailed quarterly tracking data for a comprehensive range of enterprise IT markets. The full-year 2021 revenue numbers represent actual data for the first three quarters of the year and a forecast of Q4 activity levels. The larger market segments include cloud infrastructure services, collaboration, enterprise software/SaaS, data center infrastructure, service provider infrastructure and enterprise IT services. Segments with the highest growth rates are cloud infrastructure services, SaaS, hosted & cloud collaboration and service provider data center infrastructure.
“The performance of the technology titans was a bit of a mixed bag in 2021, but the good news is that only Huawei saw its revenues decline and that was due to factors that were largely beyond its control. Across a broad swathe of enterprise technology markets, vendors saw double-digit revenue growth,” said John Dinsdale, Chief Analyst at Synergy Research Group. “Cloud and software-oriented markets were the standout performers, driving stellar growth for AWS, Microsoft and Salesforce. Vendors whose sales are focused primarily on more traditional on-premise products or infrastructure will continue to have a hard time generating exciting levels of growth.”
About Synergy Research Group:
Founded in 1999, Synergy provides market intelligence and analytics for the networking and telecoms industry for over 30 technology markets. We publish comprehensive quantitative market data that is updated every 90 days. Through annual subscription services, Synergy offers worldwide, regional, and country-level market share data including vendor revenue, shipments, subscribers, end user sizing, detailed market segmentation, forecasts and analysis.
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Cloud Computing Trends in 2021 – Multi-cloud, Hybrid and Cloud Migration:
2021 was another big year for multi-cloud, thanks not only to the continued demand for cloud services but also the number of strong options users have. The advantage of using multi-cloud when there are multiple strong options available is that an organization can run workloads across multiple clouds, instead of choosing just one cloud for all of its needs.
The multi-cloud trend in 2021 also extended to hybrid cloud deployments – a mix of public cloud resources alongside on-premises deployments. Moving from one deployment model to another, either from on-premises to the public cloud or from one public cloud to another, has been a common topic of discussion across vendors in 2021, as they try to grow share.
What 2021 proved was that organizations are continuing and will continue to turn to the cloud and there is no shortage of options, technologies and vendors from which IT pros can choose.
References: