fiber optics
AT&T and BlackRock’s Gigapower fiber JV may alter the U.S. broadband landscape
AT&T and a unit of investment titan BlackRock will form a joint venture to operate a commercial fiber-optic platform, with AT&T as its first wholesale tenant. The objective is to further propel AT&T’s fiber ambitions outside of the carrier’s traditional 21-state wireline footprint and move on AT&T’s long-simmering fiber expansion plans. The newly formed joint venture (JV) — Gigapower, LLC — expects to provide a best-in-class fiber network to internet service providers (ISPs) and other businesses across the United States.
The Gigapower joint venture will operate the commercial fiber service. That service – not to be confused with AT&T’s previous “GigaPower” broadband offering – will be targeted at internet service providers (ISPs) and enterprises.
BlackRock’s work in the venture will be through its Alternatives division and through a fund managed by its Diversified Infrastructure business. That business recently raised $4.5 billion in initial investor commitments. AT&T executive veteran Bill Hogg was named CEO of Gigapower.
The JV’s initial plans are to deploy a multi-gigabit fiber network to 1.5 million customer locations using a commercial open access platform. This will be incremental to AT&T’s own fiber deployment plans targeted at reaching more than 30 million locations within its 21-state wireline footprint by the end of 2025. The JV will tap into AT&T’s nationwide 5G wireless service to support sales outside of its traditional wireline footprint. This will allow it to take advantage of AT&T’s already established enterprise arrangements and more quickly get a sales channel up and running.
“Now more than ever, people are recognizing that connecting changes everything,” said John Stankey, CEO of AT&T. “With this joint venture, more customers and communities outside of our traditional service areas will receive the social and economic benefits of the world’s most durable and capable technology to access all the internet has to offer.”
“We are excited to form the Gigapower joint venture in partnership with AT&T, which will be serving as not only a joint owner but also the first wholesale tenant. We believe Gigapower’s fiber infrastructure designed as a commercial open access platform will more efficiently connect communities across the United States with critical broadband services,” said Mark Florian, Global Head of Diversified Infrastructure, BlackRock. “We look forward to partnering with Gigapower’s highly experienced management team to support the company’s fiber deployment plans and shared infrastructure business model.”
Gigapower plans to deploy a reliable, multi-gig fiber network to an initial 1.5 million customer locations across the nation using a commercial open access platform. The Gigapower fiber deployment will be incremental to AT&T’s existing target of 30 million-plus fiber locations, including business locations, by the end of 2025. Combined with existing efforts within AT&T’s 21-state footprint, this capital efficient network deployment will advance efforts to bridge the digital divide, ultimately helping to provide the fast and highly secure internet people need. This network expansion will also help spur local economies in each of the communities in which Gigapower operates.
“Fiber is the lifeblood of digital commerce,” said Bill Hogg, CEO of Gigapower. “We have a proven team of professionals building this scalable, commercial open access wireline fiber network. Our goal is to help local service providers provide fiber connectivity, create the communications infrastructure needed to power the next generation of services and bring multi-gig capabilities to help close the gap for those who currently are without multi-gig service.”
Tammy Parker, Principal Analyst at GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company, wrote:
“AT&T is pursuing a shrewd path to extend its fiber footprint nationwide without assuming all the risk by itself. Although the new Gigapower platform will be operated as a joint venture with BlackRock, offering commercial open access to not only AT&T but also other internet service providers and businesses, the carrier’s influence features prominently: the moniker ‘GigaPower’ was formerly applied to AT&T’s fiber-based service, which was renamed ‘AT&T Fiber’ in October 2016.
“The Gigapower platform will serve customers outside of AT&T’s traditional 21-state wireline footprint, and as the platform’s first wholesale tenant AT&T will be able to sell fiber service in more wireline markets, complement its nationwide mobile service footprint, and enable the carrier to market fixed-mobile service bundles in those markets. Over time, AT&T should be able to leverage this dual-technology capability to not only attract new customers and revenue streams, but also increase customer retention as subscribers who take multiple services from a carrier tend to be ‘stickier’ and less likely to stray to a rival service provider.
“The AT&T and BlackRock JV poses a competitive challenge to cable providers and regional fiber providers, whose broadband reaches are geographically restricted, though those carriers could possibly become tenants on the open access Gigapower platform to extend their own footprints.
“Gigapower will also help AT&T extend its fiber offerings to compete against the highly successful fixed wireless access (FWA) services being marketed by rivals T-Mobile US and Verizon to residential and business broadband customers both inside and outside of AT&T’s existing wireline service area. However, unlike FWA services, which can ride on top of existing mobile network coverage and are often self-installable, fiber requires the deployment of new infrastructure and truck rolls to the premises to be served, impacting time to market for AT&T and BlackRock’s ambitious plan. Additionally, Gigapower’s initial footprint will cover only 1.5 million customer locations, and it is unclear what the deployment timeline will be.
“After largely extracting itself from its previous foray into entertainment, AT&T continues doubling down on its broadband focus, committing to both 5G and fiber nationwide. AT&T’s JV with BlackRock has the potential to alter the broadband landscape, not only by enabling AT&T to market fiber in more markets but also by providing a platform for public-private broadband partnerships between Gigapower and local municipalities. However, it will take time to see results from this long-term play.”
References:
https://www.sdxcentral.com/articles/analysis/att-bags-blackrock-for-gigapower-fiber-jv/2022/12/
RVA LLC: Fiber Deployment in U.S. Reaches Highest Level Ever; Google Fiber Returns
Fiber facility service providers passed 7.9 million additional homes in the U.S. in 2022—the highest annual deployment ever, even with challenges in materials supply chain and labor availability, according to a fiber deployment report from the Fiber Broadband Association.
The 2022 Fiber Provider Survey was based on research conducted by RVA LLC Market Research & Consulting (RVA). Their researchers found that there are now a total of 68 million fiber broadband passings in the U.S., with strong recent increases of 13% over the past 12 months and 27% over the past two years. The survey also found that 63 million unique homes have now been passed (this figure “excludes homes with two or more fiber passings”). To date, fiber has passed nearly half of primary homes and over 10% of second homes. The annual fiber deployment rate is likely to be even higher over the next five years as BEAD and other broadband funding programs kick in.
In its research, RVA notes that although deployment expectations from individual companies are in constant flux based on many factors, many service providers have announced network builds exceeding the fiber footprint they have built through private funding. Canada is seeing strong fiber deployment as well, with about 66% of homes passed.
“High-quality broadband has become more important to consumers every year. Fiber broadband exceeds all other types of delivery in every single measurement of broadband quality, including speeds, uptime, latency, jitter, and power consumption,” Gary Bolton, Fiber Broadband Association president and CEO, said in a prepared statement. “For the consumer this has real-world impacts, like more productivity, better access to health care and education, more entrepreneurism, and the option of more rural living. For society, this means more sustainability and, ultimately, digital equity.”
Mike Render, Founder and CEO of RVA, will present the findings of the 2022 Fiber Provider Survey on Fiber for Breakfast, Wednesday, December 28, 2022, at 10:00am ET. Click here to register for the episode.
About the Fiber Broadband Association (FBA):
The Fiber Broadband Association is the largest and only trade association that represents the complete fiber ecosystem of service providers, manufacturers, industry experts, and deployment specialists dedicated to the advancement of fiber broadband deployment and the pursuit of a world where communications are limitless, advancing quality of life and digital equity anywhere and everywhere. The Fiber Broadband Association helps providers, communities, and policy makers make informed decisions about how, where, and why to build better fiber broadband networks. Since 2001, these companies, organizations, and members have worked with communities and consumers in mind to build the critical infrastructure that provides the economic and societal benefits that only fiber can deliver. The Fiber Broadband Association is part of the Fibre Council Global Alliance, which is a platform of six global FTTH Councils in North America, LATAM, Europe, MEA, APAC, and South Africa. Learn more at fiberbroadband.org.
The Fiber Broadband Association is also helping with the expansion by helping to train installers through its Optical Telecom Installation Certification (OpTIC) Path program.
Press Contact:
Ashley Schulte
Connect2 Communications for the Fiber Broadband Association
[email protected]
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Separately, Light Reading says that Webpass to play role in Google Fiber’s new expansion efforts. “As we continue to grow our footprint across the country, we’re integrating this [wireless] method for delivering high-speed service in more areas where it makes sense in all our existing cities and in our new expansion areas as well,” Tom Brownlow, senior network operations manager at Google Fiber, and Blake Drager, the head of technology at Google Fiber’s Webpass business, wrote in a post to the company’s website.
Google Fiber recently announced talks were underway with city leaders in five states – Arizona, Colorado, Nebraska, Nevada and Idaho – about expanding fiber services to various communities. Cities to make Google Fiber’s new-build list recently include Omaha, Nebraska, Mesa, Arizona and Lakewood, Colorado. Brownlow and Drager didn’t specify which of those expansion markets might include wireless offerings.
References:
Comcast demos 10Gb/sec full duplex with DOCSIS 4.0; TDS deploys symmetrical 8Gb/sec service
Comcast announced in a press release it successfully tested a symmetrical multi-gigabit DOCSIS 4.0 connection on its live network, taking a major step toward “offering 10G-enabled services” in the second half of 2023. In Philadelphia, where Comcast is headquartered, it connected service at an undisclosed business location using multiple cable modems and a DOCSIS 4.0-enabled 10G node. If you’re wondering what 10G means, the answer is — more than 5G. As we noted in 2019, the cable industry rolled out its marketing term just in time to have something that’s twice as many Gb/sec as 5G wireless has.
DOCSIS 4.0 technology should enable download speeds of up to 10Gbps with 6Gbps uploads, and Comcast said a lab test in January achieved more than 4Gbps speed in both directions.
Earlier this year, Comcast announced it was working on rolling out multi-gig Internet speeds to more than 50 million residences and businesses in the U.S. by the end of 2025. The company planned on deploying 2Gbps speeds to 34 cities by the end of this month and has also given a slight bump to download speed on internet service in many areas.
The advantage of 10G tech is that it should make multi-gig speeds available for both downloads and uploads (currently, Comcast’s gigabit plans include upload speeds of just 200Mbps), just as it is with fiber optic internet connections. However, for anyone considering upgrading, we should note that you will probably need another new cable modem.
Ideally, this will increase speeds for those in places where fiber isn’t available, especially non-metropolitan areas. And in places that have competition, it measures closer against rivals that deliver fiber services, such as Verizon, AT&T, Google, and Frontier Communications, which are already offering some customers symmetrical multi-gigabit connections.
“We started this year with the announcement of our world-first test of 10G modem technology capable of delivering multi-gig speeds to homes and, as of today, 10G is a reality with the potential to transform and evolve the Internet as we know it,” said Elad Nafshi, EVP and Chief Network Officer at Comcast Cable. “It’s been an incredible year of progress, and we look forward to continuing to refine and harden our 10G technology as we work to make this service—and all its incredible benefits—available to all customers in the years ahead.”
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Separately, TDS Telecom [1.] said its new symmetrical 8Gb/sec (gig) service is already available in more than 75 of its fiber markets and runs $295 per month. While most U.S. operators [2.] are sticking with 2-gig as their top tier product for now, a handful of others have already pushed further into multi-gig territory. AT&T and Ziply Fiber, for instance, both offer residential plans providing up to 5 Gbps. And fewer still have gone beyond that. Lumen Technologies introduced an 8-gig tier for its Quantum Fiber service in August and Google Fiber has announced plans to trot out 5-gig and 8-gig plans in early 2023. Lumen’s service costs $300 per month.
Note 1. TDS Telecom offers internet service across 31 states with the greatest coverage in Wisconsin, Tennessee, and Utah.
Note 2. TDS is competing directly against AT&T, Comcast, Consolidated Communications and Lumen in the territory it serves.
While TDS in a press release pitched the 8-gig product as suitable for power users such as gamers and content creators, an operator representative told Fierce Telecom it doesn’t initially expect significant uptake of the plan. Instead, such offerings are tools in a marketing war being waged across the broadband industry.
Wire 3 offers a 10-gig service to customers in Florida, and Tennessee’s EPB and also provides a 25-gig service. However, it is not likely that consumers need those kinds of speeds currently.
On TDS’s Q3 2022 earnings call, TDS CFO Michelle Brukwicki stated its 1-gig and 2-gig plans are “important tools that will allow us to defend and win new customers.” She added nearly a quarter of new customers are taking its 1-gig service where it is available and its faster, higher-APRU tiers helped it boost residential broadband revenue in the quarter. However, TDS expects to miss 2022 fiber build target.
References:
https://corporate.comcast.com/press/releases/comcast-live-10g-connection-4-gig-symmetrical-speeds
https://www.theverge.com/2022/12/12/23505779/comcast-multi-gigabit-10g-docsis-40-cable-fiber-isp
https://www.fiercetelecom.com/broadband/tds-cranks-fiber-speeds-8-gbps
U.S. cable commercial revenue to grow 6% in 2022; Comcast Optical Network Architecture; HFC vs Fiber
U.S. cable multi-service operators (MSO’s) now generate more than $20 billion a year in business services revenues as the sector has emerged as one of the most profitable for the industry. However, cablecos face major challenges in maintaining their growth pace because of the economic meltdown wrought by COVID-19 and the emergence of new all-fiber and wireless competitors.
Cable business service revenues and customer growth each slowed during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, but they are clearly increasing again at the end of 2022.
U.S. cablecos commercial revenue growth is set to hit 6% in 2022, up from just 2% in 2020 and 3% in 2021, Alan Breznick, cable/video practice leader at Light Reading and a Heavy Reading analyst said in opening remarks at Light Reading’s 16th-annual CABLE NEXT-GEN BUSINESS SERVICES DIGITAL SYMPOSIUM, which focused on cable business services. [The source of that data is CMG/S&P.]
“There are signs of things pointing up again for the [cable] industry,” Breznick told the virtual audience.
U.S. cable is expected to bring in $20.5 billion in total commercial services revenues in 2022. Broken down by segment, small businesses (up to 19 employees), at $14.6 billion, will continue to represent the lion’s share, followed by medium businesses (20-99 employees), at $3.3 billion, and large businesses (100-plus employees), at $2.6 billion.
Commercial customer growth is estimated to reach 5% in 2022, down slightly from 2021 levels, but almost doubling the growth rate seen in 2020, when businesses across the country were hit by pandemic-driven shutdowns and lockdowns. Breznick estimates that US cable has about 5.5 million commercial customers.
Christopher Boone, senior VP of business services and emerging markets at Cable One, acknowledged that the commercial services market is returning to a faster rate of growth. However, businesses – and smaller businesses, particularly – are feeling labor and inflationary pressure as things continue to open up.
“Everything is expensive, including labor, and it’s hard to find [workers],” Boone explained. “For the small business owner, I think it’s pretty tough right now.”
During the earlier phases of the pandemic, Boone said Cable One didn’t emphasize new work-from-home products but instead focused on the broader customer experience. For example, Cable One put some customers on a seasonable pause for the first time, forgave early termination fees, issued credits and, where appropriate, helped customers move to lower-level services.
“We really threw the rulebook out and just said, do what it takes to take care of the customers,” he said. Even if some small businesses fail, the hope is that those entrepreneurs will return and choose Cable One again, remembering that the company did right by them when times were tough. Moving forward, he said Cable One will stick to its knitting and focus on connectivity rather than look to expand its product line for the business segment.
“I think our product menu needs to look like In-N-Out and not The Cheesecake Factory,” Boone said, noting that Cable One has opted to sit on the sidelines with product categories such as SD-WAN. “We’re pretty cautious in terms of new product launches … We feel that connectivity is really our sweet spot.”
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Comcast Business now serves, small, mid-range and enterprise-level customers with a variety of services including Metro Ethernet, wavelength services and Direct Internet Access. An important piece of the firm’s broader strategy revolves around a “unified optical network architecture” initiative that enables the MSO to serve a broad range of customer types, including those requiring that services are delivered to multiple locations in multiple markets.
Comcast’s unified optical architecture combines the access and metro optical networks using a set of items: network terminating equipment (NTE), a Wave Integration Shelf (WIS) and OTN (Optical Transport Network – ITU standard) “tails.”
The NTE is a small, optical shelf that today supports 10-Gig and 100-Gig up to a 400-Gig wavelength, and can reside at a single customer site or a data center. The WIS resides in the Comcast headend or hub, co-located with the metro optical line system, and serves as the demarcation point for commercial services. The OTN Tails are the key to connecting the access network to the metro network.
“We needed a way to provide commercial services to customers that were located in the access [network], but needed to reach the metro network to get to one of our routers for Internet access or possibly another segment of the access to connect their locations together,” Stephen Ruppa, senior principal engineer, optical architecture for Comcast’s TPX (technology, product and experience) unit, said this week during his keynote presentation.
The combining/meshing of the access and metro networks enables features such as remote management, performance monitoring data, alarming and a full “end-to-end circuit view,” including the customer sites themselves. “We use the same hardware, standards, configurations, designs, procurement, processes … in all the networks, regardless of the vendor,” Ruppa said.
And while there was once little need to connect two non-Comcast sites that resided in different areas or to provide connections greater than 10 Gbit/s, customer demands have changed. Ruppa said two products drove that demand and the desire to create the company’s unified optical architecture: wavelength services and high-bandwidth Metro Ethernet.
A modular, simplified, commoditized and easily repeatable architecture enables Comcast Business to “easily offer the next gen of 400-Gig wavelengths and Ethernet services with a very light lift,” he added.
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Ed Harstead, Lead Technology Strategist, Chief Technology Office, Fixed Networks, Nokia presented the final keynote.
The panel session “Fighting Fiber with Fiber” was moderated by Breznick with panelists:
- Christian Nascimento, VP, Product Management & Strategy, Comcast Business
- Brian Rose, Assistant VP, Product Internet, Networking & Carrier Services. Cox Communications
- Steve Begg, VP/GM, Business Services, Armstrong Business Solutions
- Mark Chinn, Partner, CMG Partners
- Ed Harstead, Lead Technology Strategist, Chief Technology Office, Fixed Networks, Nokia
Decades old hybrid fiber-coax networks (HFC) drive fiber to the node outside of the premises, which is then hooked up using older cable (coaxial) technology. However, due to advances in cable technology such as the latest DOCSIS 4.0 technology, the cable industry has touted its newly developed technological capacity to support multi-gig symmetrical speeds over those hybrid networks. DOCSIS 4.0 currently supports speeds of up to 10 Gigabits (Gbps) per second download and 6 Gbps upload – its predecessor, DOCSIS 3.1, offered only 5 Gbps * 1.5 Gbps.
Christian Nascimento of Comcast stated that hybrid networks that deliver multi-gigabit speeds are “adequate” for smaller enterprises. “This is matter of matching the technology up with…the customer’s needs,” he said, adding that Comcast delivers these services in a “cost-effective way.”
For Cox Communications, the hybrid model is “an ‘and,’ not an ‘or,’” said Brian Rose, the assistant vice president of product internet for the cable company. While Cox may invest more heavily in fiber networks going forward, Rose said it will continue to invest in its cable networks as well. Rose said he welcomes market challenges from insurgent fiber deployers. “Competition is good for customers and the industry overall,” he said. “It pushes people to be better and to push the envelope.”
The panel wasn’t unanimously bullish on older cable technology, however. Ed Harstead of Nokia argued that a widespread transition to fiber is inevitable. “I don’t doubt that mom-and-pop businesses will be perfectly fine on [cable]. But to the extent that you need higher speeds and symmetrical speeds…it’s going to be fiber.”
The cable broadband industry faces an onslaught of criticism from fiber advocates. Organizations like the Fiber Broadband Association say their preferred technology performs better, last longer, and costs less in the long term than the competition. FBA President Gary Bolton has strongly opposed government support for all manner of non-fiber technology, including satellite and wireless.
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References:
https://www.lightreading.com/cable-tech/cable-business-services-bounce-back/d/d-id/782175
Cable Providers Back Hybrid Fiber-Coax Networks in Face of Pure Fiber
MoffettNathanson: Fiber Bubble May Pop; AT&T is by far the largest (fiber) overbuilder in U.S.
Fiber network build-outs are still going strong, even as the pace of those builds slowed a bit in 2022. Our colleague Craig Moffett warns that the fiber future isn’t looking quite as bright due to an emerging set of economic challenges that could reduce the overall rate of return on those build-outs. Rising costs, reflecting labor cost inflation, equipment cost inflation, and higher cost of capital, all point to diminished investment returns for fiber overbuilds. Craig wrote in a note to clients:
Our by-now familiar tally of planned competitive fiber builds for 2022 started the year at to 6M or so homes passed. By early Spring it had climbed to 7M. It currently sits at ~8M. Next year’s number is flirting with 10M. All for an industry that has never built even half that many in a single year. As we approach the end of the year, however, it is clear that the actual number, at least for this year, will fall short. The number is still high, to be sure… but lower.
There does not appear to be a single explanation for the construction shortfall; some operators blame labor supply, some permitting delays. And some, of course, are actually doing just fine. For the industry as a whole, however, notably including AT&T, by far the nation’s largest (fiber) overbuilder, the number will almost certainly end the year meaningfully below plan. Costs appear to be rising, as well. Here again, there is no single explanation. Labor costs are frequently cited, but equipment costs are rising as well. For example, despite construction shortfalls, AT&T’s capital spending show no such shortfall, suggesting higher cost per home passed. Higher cost per home passed, coupled with a higher cost of capital, portend lower returns on invested capital.
If, as we expect, investment returns for fiber overbuilds increasingly prove to be inadequate, the capital markets will eventually withdraw funding. Indeed, this is how all bubbles ultimately pop. There are already signs of growing hesitancy. To be sure, we don’t expect a near-term curtailment; operators’ plans for the next year or two are largely locked in. Our skepticism is instead about longer-term projections that call for as much as 70% of the country to be overbuilt by fiber. We believe those kinds of forecasts are badly overstated.
As recent as its Q3 2022 earnings call, AT&T has reiterated that it’s on track to expand its fiber footprint to more than 30 million locations by 2025. The company deployed fiber to about 2.3 million locations through the third quarter of this year, but appears hard-pressed to meet its guidance to build 3.5 million to 4 million fiber locations per year.
Given that the fourth quarter is typically a slow construction period, AT&T “looks to be well behind its deployment goals,” Moffett wrote. “If the company retains the pace of deployment in Q3, they will end the year 675K homes short of their goal, or an 18% shortfall compared to the midpoint of their target.”
But AT&T isn’t alone. Lumen has also fallen behind its target, as has TDS and altafiber (formerly Cincinnati Bell) and Altice USA. Those on track or ahead of pace include Frontier Communications, Consolidated Communications and Verizon.
The analysts at Wells Fargo recently lowered their fiber buildout forecasts for 2022 and 2023. They cut their 2022 forecast for the US to about 8 million new fiber locations, down from 9 million. For 2023, they expect the industry to build about 10 million locations, cut from a previous expectation of 11 million.
Though overall buildout figures are still relatively high, some operators recently have blamed a blend of reasons for the recent slowdown in pace, including a challenging labor supply, permitting delays and rising costs for capital and equipment.
“Labor costs are frequently cited, but equipment costs are rising as well,” Moffett noted. “For example, despite construction shortfalls, AT&T’s capital spending show no such shortfall, suggesting higher cost per home passed.”
And, like the pace of buildouts, the cost situation is clearly not the same for all operators. While Consolidated is seeing the cost per home passed rising to a range of $600 to $650 (up from $550 to $600), Frontier expects its costs to remain at the expected range of $900 to $1,000.
But more generally, Moffett believes the returns on those investments “will only weaken further as buildouts are necessarily pushed out to less attractive, lower density, markets.”
One takeaway from that, Craig warns, is that fiber overbuilding is poised not only to generate lower returns that originally hoped, but that there also will be upward, not downward, pressure on broadband prices.
With respect to the pace of fiber build-outs, there’s heavy demand for labor for today’s overbuilding plans, and it will only get heavier as the $42.5 billion Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program gets started.
Remedies are out there, with Moffett pointing to the Fiber Broadband Association’s rollout of its OpTICs Path fiber technician training program earlier this year as one example. ATX Networks, a network tech supplier, is contributing with the recent launch of a Field Personnel Replenishment Program.
But they might not completely bridge the gap. “These efforts may help expand capacity, but they are unlikely to fully meet demand, and they are almost certainly not going to forestall near-term labor cost inflation, in our view,” Moffett wrote.
With rising equipment costs and the cost of capital also factoring in, Moffett views a 20% rise in fiber deployment (for both passing and connecting homes) a “reasonable range” in the coming two to three years.
Moffett wonders if network operators will be forced to raise prices to help restore returns to the levels anticipated when fiber buildout plans were first conceived. While it’s unclear if competitive dynamics will allow for that, “it does appear to us that expectations of falling ARPU [average revenue per user] are misplaced,” Craig wrote.
But the mix of higher cost of capital and deployment for fiber projects, paired with deployment in lower density markets or those with more buried infrastructure, stand to reduce the value of such fiber projects further.
“Capital markets will sniff out this dynamic long before the companies themselves do, and they will withdraw capital. This is, of course, how bubbles are popped,” Moffett warned.
The MoffettNathanson’s report also provided an update on broadband subscriber metrics. US cable turned in a modest gain of 38,000 broadband subs in Q3 2022, an improvement from cable’s first-ever negative result in Q2. Cable saw broadband subscriber growth of 1.2% in Q3, down from +4.4% in the year-ago quarter. U.S. telcos saw broadband subscriber growth fall to -0.5% in Q3, versus +.06% in the year-ago quarter.
Meanwhile, fixed wireless additions set a new record thanks to continued growth at both Verizon and T-Mobile. However, T-Mobile’s 5G Home business posted 578,000 FWA subscriber adds in Q3, up just 3.2% from the prior quarter.
References:
Clearwave Fiber Expands Fiber Buildout in Savannah, Hinesville and Richmond Hill, GA
Clearwave Fiber [1.] continues its construction of a state-of-the art, all-Fiber Internet network in the “Coastal Empire.” This latest expansion for the Savannah-based operation marks a continuation of almost 6,000 route miles of Fiber in the Southeast and Midwest. The company’s goal is to bring the most advanced and fastest Internet available to more than 500,000 homes and businesses across the United States by the end of 2026.
Note 1. Clearwave Fiber was formed in January of 2022 as a rebranding of Hargray Fiber, which has been serving the Southeast for 70+ years. Senior leadership and operations management have a long history with Hargray and now lead Clearwave Fiber during this rapid expansion.
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“Clearwave Fiber is excited to contribute to the continual growth in Southeast Georgia and provide such a crucial resource to residents and commercial operations,” said Clearwave Fiber General Manager John Robertson. “We’re committed to providing communities with the high-speed connectivity that is essential for families, businesses and local economies.”
“We’re ingrained in the fabric of Savannah and its surrounding communities,” said Clearwave Fiber Chief Operating Officer Gwynne Lastinger. “Our sales and technical support staff live and work in the Coastal Empire and we continue to add to our team of more than 500 throughout the Southeast and Midwest.”
With gigabit download and upload speeds, Clearwave Fiber will bring 10 times more speed to consumer doorsteps at a time when fast, reliable Internet is becoming increasingly critical to modern households and businesses. Remote work, streaming, gaming, smart home technology and multiple device connectivity all require robust, reliable connections. Clearwave Fiber is committed to providing hassle-free, high-quality Fiber data connection to every location of its growing footprint.
“We’re seeing an increase in households where multiple online activities are occurring at the same time. Many Internet connections aren’t up to the task of keeping it all running at top speeds,” said Robertson. “Clearwave Fiber solves the problem of the bandwidth issues that happen when everyone in the house is connected. We also have solutions for businesses that keep them operating on a fast, reliable network.”
For many consumers, Internet touches every facet of daily life. Remote work, telehealth, and virtual learning all require robust, reliable connections. A 2022 study by Deloitte indicated that 45 percent of surveyed households include one or more remote workers, and 23 percent include at least one or more household member attending school from home. Additionally, 49 percent of U.S. adults had virtual medical appointments in the past year.
In addition, the Deloitte report noted that the average U.S. household now utilizes a total of 22 connected devices, including laptops, tablets, smartphones, smart TVs, game consoles, home concierge systems like Amazon Echo and Google Nest, fitness trackers, camera and security systems, and smart home devices such as connected exercise machines and thermostats.
Supporting this burgeoning ecosystem of household devices can challenge companies serving customers over DSL or cable systems. “Older copper wire and coaxial networks worked just fine for the technologies they were built for. Copper lines are great for telephone calls and coax worked well for cable TV, but those networks struggle to deliver the kind of bandwidth possible with fiber,” noted Lastinger. “Fiber optic technology is the future. Fiber networks are more durable, more consistent, and they move data at the speed of light. Best of all, our network easily keeps pace with technology innovations, exponentially increasing demands for bandwidth, and evolving customer needs. The options are almost limitless.”
Fiber networks are currently being installed on Wilmington and Whitemarsh Islands, Windsor Forest, Hinesville, Rincon, Pooler and Richmond Hill. Clearwave Fiber is scheduled to complete these projects by the end of November and will continue working in other areas in the region into 2023 and beyond.
For more information, visit ClearwaveFiber.com
References:
Chile’s Entel to sell fiber optic assets for $358 million to ON*NET Fibra
Chilean telecoms giant Entel (which this author consulted for in 2002 and 2005) said on Saturday it would sell the assets of its fiber optic business, which provides services to homes, to local company ON*NET Fibra (?) in a deal worth $358 million.
The sale, led by investment banks BNP Paribas, Santander and financial adviser Scotiabank, is subject to approval by Chile’s economic regulator, expected in the first half of 2023.
Entel and ON*NET Fibra signed an agreement as part of the deal that will enable Entel to continue offering internet services for residences on ON*NET’s network, Entel said in a statement.
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“By selling our network, rather than leaving the fixed market, we are increasing coverage rapidly to offer our internet services to the home at efficient costs and without the need to invest the sums required for a fiber deployment with this coverage,” the statement added.
Following the closing of this transaction, ON*NET Fibra is expected to reach more than 4.3 million homes in 2024. Entel has operations in Chile and Peru and has more than 20 million mobile subscribers.
Source: ON*NET Fibra
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Nokia announces Lightspan MF-14 platform as “most advanced in the world”
Nokia has unveiled what it boldly claims is the “most advanced fiber broadband platform in the world,” one it’s calling the “fiber-for-everything” world. According to the vendor, the new Lightspan MF-14 platform extends the upper reaches of its fiber broadband range, bringing “unmatched” capacity, low latency, intelligence, reliability and efficiency. The platform, which falls into “Generation 6” of such things, is already being tried out by customers looking to build 25Gbit/s-capable network in Europe, North America and the Asia-Pacific region. Lightspan MF-14 is being premiered at the Network X event in Amsterdam from 18 to 20 October.
The industry is entering a ‘fiber-for-everything’ era. Once operators have deployed fiber-to-the-home, their networks pass every other building in the street, as well as the homes, meaning they can connect businesses and other services. Fiber PON will be capable of supporting high bandwidth consumer services, industry 4.0 applications, business connectivity, 5G transport and smart city services. This creates more revenue opportunities, lowers TCO and significantly reduces overall power consumption. This new broadband era, designated Broadband 6 by the World Broadband Association (WBBA), requires a new technical solution. Nokia’s pioneering Lightspan MF-14 is the first Gen 6 optical line terminal (OLT) in the world and has already been selected by customers building 25 Gb/second capable networks in Europe, North America and Asia Pacific.
Geert Heyninck, Nokia’s VP Broadband Networks, said: “Fiber-to-the-home is becoming fiber-for-everything. This is enabled by several technology advances, most notably higher speed PON technologies to accommodate all new services, and SDN to bring more intelligence in the network. If you think about it, the massive number of connection points on fiber make it a challenge to get an instant view of everything that happens in your network, fully automate network control, and perform actions with no service interruption. Our current portfolio is doing an excellent job in supporting many of these requirements for today’s and tomorrow’s services, but we are looking ahead. The MF-14 platform will suit operators who are planning large scale 25G PON, 50G and even 100G PON within the same environment.”
In his recent report* Erik Keith, Senior Research Analyst for Broadband Infrastructure at S&P Global, says: “The PON market is at a pivotal moment in the evolution of networks, where fiber broadband means so much more than residential connectivity. There is a huge opportunity for service providers to connect everything much more efficiently by leveraging their existing fiber broadband networks. After all, the same fiber cables that were originally laid in residential areas also pass commercial buildings such as office blocks, hospitals and government properties. This approach eliminates multiple overlay networks, minimizes digging up the streets, and lowers energy use substantially. The new Lightspan MF-14 OLT can enable operators to deploy a solution that will last for decades, while providing a platform that can increase network performance exponentially compared to most networks in use today.”
Based on new, advanced hardware and disaggregated software design, MF-14 is a generation leap in fiber access solutions. It is the highest capacity platform in the industry and the only solution ready for mass delivery of 25G, 50G and 100G PON services. It’s also the industry’s first OLT with the six-nines availability and sub-millisecond latency needed for mission critical industry 4.0 and 5G transport services.
Frontier Communications, the first in the U.S. to trial 25G PON, is also the first to evaluate MF-14 in its live network. Frontier’s Scott Mispagel, SVP National Architecture and Engineering, said: “We are proud to be the first to embrace this next-generation platform. This is another way for us to provide customers with the fastest broadband available. The MF-14 platform will support our path to 100G using our existing fiber network and future-proof our network with speeds that will continue to outpace cable and other technologies for generations to come.”
Nokia Lightspan MF-14
In July this year CityFibre – the UK’s largest independent full fibre infrastructure platform – signed a 10-year equipment agreement to support its nationwide network upgrade. John Franklin, CTIO, CityFibre said: “As we accelerate our full fibre rollout to serve a third of the UK market by 2025, the demand placed on those networks will also accelerate. MF-14’s flexibility and capacity will help us to meet the needs of our partner’s and their customers for generations to come.”
* From “Nokia launches 6th generation flagship fiber platform” published by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Resources
Lightspan MF-14, a generation leap in fiber access solutions
- 4x higher capacity than previous generation, ensures smooth evolution to massive connectivity with 25, 50, 100.
- No single point of failures, ensuring the highest availability (six nines) in the market. This is important because consumers and business depend on broadband non-stop
- Sub millisecond latency for 5G transport and new array of industry 4.0 applications
- 20% higher power efficiency than the industry average so operators can decrease overall power consumption as they connect more points on fiber network and meet sustainability targets
- Modular software architecture for more agility for upgrading software and onboarding of new functionality, with much less effort and time.
- SDN programmability and open APIs to enable control function by Nokia or 3rd party network control functions
- Fast telemetry and digital mirror in the cloud for enhanced network overview
- For more details visit the web page
Fiber for everything website
World Broadband Association (WBBA) BB6 network characteristics, published in Next-Generation Broadband Roadmap white paper, Oct 2022
- Residential speed. Up to 50Gbps *
- Enterprise speed. Up to 1.6–3.2Tbps
- Intelligence. Fully autonomous
- Reliability & latency. Deterministic reliability / <1ms latency (hard guarantee) / very low jitter
- Trustworthy & green. 10×-plus better per bit energy efficient, very fast problem detection and response (seconds)
- Connectivity. Fiber sensors, 10 times more IoT terminals
- Sensing Capability. Fiber sensing for applications, application and computing awareness, AI
*Speeds listed are speculative given the timeframe, and further work by the WBBA will explore this in more detail in future reports.
California begins construction of $3.8B middle mile fiber network
California began work on an ambitious fiber project which aims to deliver statewide open access middle mile connectivity by the end of 2026. The project, which was announced in 2021, is being fueled by $3.8 billion in federal and state funds.
The sate’s network design calls for a total of 10,000 miles of fiber. The largest portion of the project will run through San Bernadino County, which will be home to 850 miles of fiber. Kern County (544 miles), Riverside County (535 miles) and Los Angeles County (525 miles) will also account for substantial portions of the system.
California’s Department of Transportation (Caltrans) is working with the state’s Department of Technology to complete the project.
During a project meeting in September, Caltrans’ Acting Assistant Deputy Director for the Middle Mile Broadband Initiative Janice Benton said preconstruction work – including environmental, permitting and design tasks – was already underway for 93% of the project’s fiber miles.
She added 114 miles of the project are expected to go into construction in 2022, with another 300 miles to come in 2023. The first leg of its work got underway this week.
The state of California has already advertised contracts covering 900 miles of the project. And by October 14, it was planning to have 60% of the middle mile network out for construction bids. It is aiming to have 100% of the system under contract by May 2023.Once the network is complete, ISPs will be able to tap into it to provide last mile connectivity. Those efforts will also get a funding boost. The same 2021 legislation that allocated $3.25 billion for the middle mile project (which was subsequently supplemented by another $550 million from the 2022 state budget) also set aside $2 billion for the rollout of last mile connections.
The 10,000-mile “middle mile” network is expected to cost $3.8 billion and help connect the roughly one in five Californians do not have access to reliable and affordable high-speed internet.
“We are thrilled to see construction begin on the middle-mile network,” said Secretary Tong. “Too many rural and urban areas lack adequate broadband infrastructure, forcing residents to attempt to connect via mobile hotspots and unreliable satellite service, which leaves out too many Californians.”
Former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who was named by the Governor in August to serve as Infrastructure Advisor to the State of California, joined the event Thursday to highlight the substantial federal resources coming to the state for infrastructure investments like broadband networks.
“This broadband network is one of the most ambitious and impactful infrastructure projects in California – and we’re thrilled that construction is underway starting today,” Mayor Villaraigosa said. “With billions more in federal infrastructure dollars on the way, we’re getting ready to celebrate many more groundbreakings for innovative projects across California. This goes far beyond infrastructure, this is about building the future of our state and creating thousands of good-paying jobs along the way.”
CDT Director Liana Bailey-Crimmins said construction on the first segment of the Middle Mile network follows more than a year of planning.
“The rapid planning by the Middle Mile team as well as our local partners is coming to fruition. It’s wonderful to see the hard work paying off, to make a difference in the lives of Californians who live in unserved areas like this one.”
Caltrans Director Tony Tavares said each of the Department’s 12 districts is working to build segments of the Middle Mile network on an ambitious timeline in the hope of capturing the maximum amount of federal funding available.
“This project provides a wonderful opportunity for us to ‘dig smart’ and highlights the benefits of coordination among state agencies and with our local partners. Caltrans is proud to partner with the Department of Technology to create a broadband Middle Mile network, providing equitable, high-speed broadband service to all Californians.”
Once the Middle Mile network is complete, local carriers will have access to the network to provide communities with direct service to homes and businesses as well as reduced-cost or free broadband internet service for those who are eligible.
References:
https://www.fiercetelecom.com/telecom/california-kicks-construction-38b-middle-mile-fiber-network
Altice USA bets on FTTP with multi-gigabit speeds by 2025; MVNO with T-Mobile
Dexter Goei, Altice USA’s outgoing CEO, continues to strongly defend the company’s decision to upgrade large portions of its network to fiber, stating that the product and business performance of the move make dollars and sense. Altice USA’s current plan is to upgrade about 6.5 million passings to fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) by 2025 and back that up with multi-gigabit speeds, which Altice USA has begun to soft-launch in parts of its fiber upgrade areas.
At the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology conference in San Francisco, Goei said while the company has made strides in deploying its fiber network — it expects to finish 2022 with up to 2.3 million homes passed with the technology — it is still seeing customer declines in its former Cablevision and Suddenlink footprints.
In Altice’s former Cablevision systems in metropolitan New York City, gross additions are lower, there is less move activity and churn levels are low, but the company also is competing against a telco — Verizon Communications — that has been extremely aggressive on price. In its Suddenlink markets mainly in the Midwest, gross addition activity is high but churn is high, especially in markets where it is being overbuilt.
“We’re still losing subs in both markets but for different reasons,” Goei said. “We feel good about the fourth quarter turning around and looking better next year.”
Altice USA lost about 3,000 subscribers in 2021 — the only major cable operator to do so — and shed more than 50,000 broadband customers in the first half of this year.
Altice began accelerating its fiber rollout last year, with a goal of passing 6.5 million homes by 2025. At the Goldman conference, Goei said the company expects to end 2022 with 2.2 million to 2.3 million homes passed with fiber (an increase of about 1 million homes), and should add another 1.6 million to 1.8 million households by the end of 2023.
While other cable operators have seen an increase in competition from fixed wireless access providers from telcos, Goei said most of Altice USA’s telco competition is replacing slower DSL lines with fiber, hence the acceleration of its own fiber buildout plans. But he shared his peers’ disdain for fixed wireless access (FWA), agreeing with some pundit predictions that the technology will reach a performance and penetration plateau in the next two or three years.
Goei announced his intention to step down as CEO earlier this month, and will become executive chairman of Altice USA on October 3. In his place the company named Comcast executive Dennis Mathew as CEO, also effective October 3. Mathew has 17 years of experience with Comcast, most recently as senior VP of its Freedom Region (Southeast Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Northern Delaware). He earlier served as senior VP for its Western New England Region (Connecticut, Vermont, Western Massachusetts and areas of New York and New Hampshire) and has extensive experience in running cable businesses.
Goei said at the Goldman conference that his main motivation for stepping down was a desire to return to Europe, where he spent his childhood and most of his professional career, with his family. He added that he notified the Altice USA board of his decision about a year ago, starting the search process for a replacement about six months ago. He believes he’s leaving Altice USA in capable hands.
“I interviewed many, many people during the process; Dennis fits the bill across the board,” Goei said, adding that Mathew has a proven track record in operations, running one of Comcast’s most high-profile regions (the Freedom Region) and will fit in well with the Altice team. “He’s just a great guy, a team player, will focus on the prize and is someone who would do very well with the executive team at Altice USA.”
The average revenues per user (ARPU) on Altice USA’s fiber-based products are 7% to 8% higher than ARPU on cable-based services, he said. Additionally, churn rates on fiber services are also coming in about 6% to 8% lower than on HFC, and the NPS (net promoter score) for the fiber product is also coming in higher.
“Every single metric that you can imagine – that you would anticipate – are better” on the fiber product, Goei said. He acknowledged, however, that the installation process for fiber customers getting a triple-play bundle that includes pay-TV and voice could be better.
As for Altice USA’s fiber network build update, the company finished almost 270,000 new homes in the second quarter of 2022, a record the company expects to beat in Q3 and, weather permitting, in Q4.
For 2022, Altice USA expects to complete an additional 1 million fiber passings, with 1.2 million as its “stretch target.” That will put Altice USA in a position to end the year with 2.2 million to 2.3 million homes passed with fiber.
In 2023, Goei said Altice USA expects to ratchet up the build to 1.6 million to 1.8 million homes passed as the operator starts to push fiber upgrades into the Suddenlink footprint.
Altice USA is also doing edge-out builds to areas adjacent to existing facilities and pursuing grants for fiber builds in underserved and unserved areas. Altice USA has won grants or subsidies covering 40,000 to 45,000 homes, a number that Goei predicts could rise to about 200,000 in the next 12 to 24 months.
Altice USA, which has been fielding M&A inquiries about the Suddenlink properties, believes its fiber focus will set the stage for a return to broadband subscriber growth as early as Q4 2022, and certainly by sometime in 2023.
Goei said 80% of gross broadband subscriber adds in fiber areas take a fiber-based service. Though Altice USA is trying to convert HFC customers to fiber proactively, exceptions include customers who want to keep their existing setup or who are in homes and locations where a landlord won’t allow a new fiber drop.
Altice USA has been building a fiber broadband network in its Optimum territory in the New York tri-state area (New York, New Jersey, Connecticut) with 1.2 million fiber passings available for sales as of December 31, 2021. For Suddenlink, construction is expected to begin this year in areas of Texas. Additional states in the Suddenlink footprint that will benefit from this fiber expansion plan include areas of Arizona, California, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and West Virginia.
“Altice USA is proud to announce plans to invest further in our fiber deployment strategy by accelerating the build of a 100% fiber broadband network capable of delivering multi-gig speeds across our Optimum and Suddenlink footprint,” said Dexter Goei, Altice USA Chief Executive Officer. “Fiber is the future and given the progress we have made at Optimum with our fiber expansion, we’re excited to build on that success and break ground later this year at Suddenlink to bring our advanced network to more customers and communities.”
Goei touched briefly on Altice USA’s Optimum Mobile product, which is supported by an MVNO deal with T-Mobile. He agreed that there are benefits to bundling mobile with home broadband but lamented that mobile EBIDTA is challenged by “thin margins” being driven by a mobile marketplace that’s seeing falling ARPU and rising levels of promotions.
With that backdrop, Altice USA expects to market fiber more aggressively than mobile this year and into 2023. “For the balance of this year, I don’t think you should expect real big waves in the mobile product,” Goei said.
Goei also offered some additional commentary on the recent announcement that he will be stepping down as CEO to become executive chairman of the board. Comcast exec Dennis Mathew has been tapped to take the CEO slot effective October 3.
Goei reiterated that he is shifting gears for personal reasons, as he and his family want to return to Europe. He said he informed the board of his decision about a year ago. Altice USA started its CEO search roughly six months ago.
In his new role, Goei said he will focus on “large strategic stuff” and external elements such as government affairs and conversations with the financial community, so that Mathew can focus squarely on operations.
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