Fixed Wireless Access (FWA)
UAE network operator “etisalat by e&” achieves 5G mmWave distance milestone
UAE network operator etisalat by e& today claimed the world’s first deployment of 5G mmWave covering more than 10 kilometres, as it highlighted the potential of the range to support fixed wireless access (FWA) and industrial applications over private networks. In a statement, e& explained the pilot used the 26Ghz band and delivered high speeds. The test forms part of a push to address demand for mobile networks capable of delivering large amounts of data reliably and securely.
The UAE telco claimed its test demonstrated the network’s ability to uplink heavy video and real-time data transfer with faster speed and lower latency, supporting “industries operating over vast areas.”
Alongside citing opportunities for FWA, the operator highlighted the potential of private networks using the frequencies across various industry verticals, citing healthcare, manufacturing and public safety.
The implementation of 5G mmWave (FR2 only) network capability was steered as part of etisalat by e& vision to deliver state of art technologies to the society. This is considered as a global first 5G deployment on mmWave @ 26Ghz, FR2 only over 10 km with high speeds. The step aimed at addressing the demand of consumers and enterprises to have a solution following the highest standards of data security and digitalisation over mobile network that’s also capable to deliver large amounts of data reliably and securely.
The mmWave spectrum generally refers to above 24GHz, that can deliver extreme capacity, ultra-high throughput and ultra-low latency which has huge potential in multiple applications for consumers as well as enterprises.
The solution demonstrates the ability of 5G networks to enable uplink heavy video and real-time data transfer scenarios over a specific geographical area, effectively paving the way toward the digital transformation of industries operating over vast areas.
Marwan Bin Shakar, SVP Access Network Development, etisalat by e& said: “This deployment is a commitment to unleashing the full potential of 5G network and pushing the boundaries to redefine the world of connectivity. This is a significant milestone for 5G mmWave, especially that the demand for data has increased exponentially, and this plays a pivotal role in increasing network capacity. Our partnerships with technology leaders has also contributed to setting these benchmarks in the industry and bring advanced solutions to the country making sure we address customer digitalization’s requirements and enabling quicker time to market.”
This achievement will support the use of 5G network for FWA subscribers who can enjoy fiber like user experience over wireless network and also accelerate the adoption of 5G private network technology in other sectors like oil and gas, public safety, healthcare, manufacturing and more to have complete control over their user data with on-premise hosted MEC (Multi-access edge computing) and use their enterprise data and security policies to manage data delivered from a private 5G network.
References:
UAE’s “etisalat by e&” announces first software defined quantum satellite network
AT&T Internet Air FWA home internet service now available in 16 markets
AT&T announced today that its new fixed wireless access (FWA) home internet service, named Internet Air, is now available in more than a dozen markets across the U.S. The emphasis here is on the customer installation process, which AT&T says can be done in five easy steps, with the customer up and running in less than 15 minutes. No tech dispatch or truck rolls are necessary to install this FWA home internet service.
AT&T is now the third nationwide mobile network operator (MNO) to launch a 5G FWA home internet service. Verizon is the current FWA leader, followed by T-Mobile. USCellular has also launched a 5G FWA service in the area it serves (not nationwide).
AT&T says they’ve already deployed Internet Air to existing copper-based (DSL) customers with great success. The company is now hyper-focused on selecting locations with enough wireless coverage and capacity to deliver not only a great in-home experience, but also maintain a top-notch wireless service for our existing mobile users.
Installation: Upon opening the box, customers will scan a QR code to access a step-by-step guide providing clear instructions. AT&T Smart Home Manager app makes set-up fool-proof with the use of a unique feature that helps you find the best spot in your home with the strongest connection. We also offer add-on Wi-Fi extenders to create a whole-home mesh Wi-Fi eliminating dead zones. While connectivity will always be our focus, we understand customers want a product that is visually appealing and easy to use. AT&T Internet Air sports a sleek and modern look that seamlessly blends into any design aesthetic.
AT&T Internet Air complements AT&T Fiber, expanding our footprint into new locations including areas of Los Angeles, CA; Philadelphia, PA: Cincinnati, OH; Harrisburg-Lancaster-Lebanon, PA; Pittsburgh, PA; Las Vegas, NV; Phoenix (Prescott), AZ; Chicago, IL; Detroit, MI; Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, MI; Hartford-New Haven, CT; Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN; Portland, OR; Salt Lake City, UT; Seattle-Tacoma, WA; and Tampa-St. Petersburg (Sarasota), FL.
Los Angeles is Charter’s largest market and a T-Mobile FWA stronghold. Philadelphia is Comcast’s home market, and Seattle is T-Mobile’s FWA home market.
Gigapower, a joint venture of AT&T and BlackRock, is building out fiber in Mesa, AZ. While the two are about 100 miles apart, it will be interesting to see how fiber and FWA technologies will be adopted in the same market.
AT&T Internet Air costs $55 a month plus taxes. AT&T Internet Air has no overage fees, no price increase at 12 months, no equipment fees and no annual contract. Coupled with AT&T ActiveArmorSM internet security included, customers can stream and surf the web with peace of mind. New and existing AT&T cellular customers with an eligible wireless plan can get Internet Air at $35/month.
AT&T Internet Air is also eligible for the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) providing eligible households with a benefit of up to $30 a month (up to $75 a month on qualifying Tribal lands) to reduce the cost of broadband service.
References:
https://about.att.com/blogs/2023/internet-air.html
https://www.att.com/internet/internet-air/
https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/fwa-and-then-there-were-three-entner
ABI Research joins the chorus: 5G FWA is a competitive alternative to wired broadband access
MoffettNathanson: ROI will be disappointing for new fiber deployments; FWA best for rural markets
IBD – Controversy over 5G FWA: T-Mobile and Verizon are in; AT&T is out
Verizon broadband – a combination of FWA and Fios (but not so much pay TV)
Verizon makes 5G Business Internet (FWA) available in 24 U.S. cities
Saudi Arabia’s Stc Achieves 10 Gbps Speeds in 5G mmWave Trials
Saudi Arabia’s Stc (Saudi Telecom Company) Group announced the successful completion of the first live trials of advanced 5G technology in the Middle East and North Africa. The trials demonstrated speeds exceeding 10 Gbps using Millimeter Wave (mmWave) technology. The trials are an extension of the robust infrastructure of the advanced 5.5G network in the Kingdom
According to the company, these trials complement the existing advanced 5.5G network in the kingdom, enabling data transfer at new record speeds in a live working environment.
“This achievement signifies a new stage in facilitating digital transformation in the region and places the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the forefront of advanced nations in the field of telecommunications.”
The Kingdom’s residents can now anticipate faster and more efficient data connectivity than before. The company said that the success of these trials is an essential aspect of stc’s “Dare” strategy. The goal is to offer access to new services and enhance customer experiences to new heights, aligned with the Saudi Vision 2030 and supporting digital transformation in the region.
The latest progress in advanced 5G technology puts Saudi Arabia at the forefront of technological innovation in the region, paving the way for even more advancements. By adopting this technology, the country is preparing itself for upcoming developments and the digital age.
References:
Dell’Oro: Broadband Equipment Spending to exceed $120B from 2022 to 2027
Dell’Oro Group predicts the broadband equipment market will surpass $120 billion in cumulative spending between 2022 and 2027. The market research firm says sales of PON equipment for fiber-to-the-home deployments, cable broadband access equipment, and fixed wireless CPE will show a 0.2% Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2027. Service providers continue to expand their fiber and DOCSIS 3.1/4.0 networks, while also increasing the reliability and sustainability of their broadband access networks.
“After three consecutive years of tremendous broadband network expansions and upgrades, 2023 is expected to show a return to normalized levels of spending,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President of Broadband Access and Home Networking research at Dell’Oro Group. “After 2023, spending is expected to increase through 2026 and 2027, driven by 25 Gbps and 50 Gbps PON, Fixed Wireless CPE, as well as DAA and DOCSIS 4.0 deployments.”
Labor markets are “still being challenged” and a number of fiber based network operators (AT&T, Altice USA, Frontier) have reduced their expansion plans and homes passed targets. “To close out 2022 we did see a significant uptake in equipment purchases, and what happened there was supply chains appeased. A lot of orders that had been on the books for a long time have been fulfilled.”
Network equipment vendors are working through that inventory they had built up while taking on “additional equipment purchases.
Additional highlights from the Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year July 2023 Forecast Report:
- PON equipment revenue is expected to grow from $11.8 B in 2022 to $13.3 B in 2027, driven largely by XGS-PON deployments in North America, EMEA, and CALA.
- Revenue for Cable Distributed Access Equipment (Virtual CCAP, Remote PHY Devices, Remote MACPHY Devices, and Remote OLTs) is expected to reach $1.6 B by 2027, as operators ramp their DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber deployments.
- Revenue for Fixed Wireless CPE is expected to reach $2.7 B by 2027, led by shipments of 5G sub-6GHz and 5G Millimeter Wave units.
- Revenue for Residential Wi-Fi Routers will surpass $5.2 B in 2027, owing to massive shipments of Wi-Fi 7 units.
“Which isn’t going to float to manufacturers until you know, late 2024, really into 2025,” he said. “I think in the interim, XGS-PON in the European market is certainly going to catch up. We’re also seeing considerable growth in XGS-PON deployments now in China.”
In Dell’Oro’s five-year forecast published in January, Heynen expected fixed wireless subscriber growth, particularly in North America, would “start to moderate” beginning in 2024, due to factors like “capacity issues and fiber expansion.”
Heynen has increased his revenue predictions for the fixed wireless CPE market – which he previously tipped would hit $2.2 billion in five years – and now predicts subscriber growth to continue into 2025.
“Part of that is because of the net reduction in homes passed for fiber,” he said. “In the meantime, fixed wireless will be able to cover more ground while the operators who are building out fiber kind of extend their overall deployment plans.”
Further, operators like T-Mobile and Verizon “are seeing fixed wireless as a way to secure broadband subscribers away from cable operators. The U.S. market is really dynamic in terms of how services can be marketed.”
The Dell’Oro Group Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year Forecast Report provides a complete overview of the Broadband Access market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and port/unit shipments for PON, Cable, Fixed Wireless, and DSL equipment. Covered equipment includes Converged Cable Access Platforms (CCAP), Distributed Access Architectures (DAA), DSL Access Multiplexers (DSLAMs), PON Optical Line Terminals (OLTs), Customer Premises Equipment ([CPE] for Cable, DSL, PON, Fixed Wireless), along with Residential WLAN Equipment, including Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 7 Gateways and Routers. For more information about the report, please contact [email protected].
Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, security, enterprise networks, data center infrastructure markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions. For more information, contact Dell’Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit www.delloro.com.
References:
https://www.fiercetelecom.com/telecom/broadband-equipment-market-eclipse-120b-2027-delloro
Dell’Oro: XGS, 25G, and Early 50G PON Rollouts to Fuel Broadband Spending
Dell’Oro: Bright Future for Campus Network As A Service (NaaS) and Public Cloud Managed LAN
Dell’Oro: FWA revenues on track to advance 35% in 2022 led by North America
Dell’Oro: PONs boost Broadband Access; Total Telecom & Enterprise Network Equipment Markets
Dell’Oro: U.S. suppliers ~20% of global telecom equipment market; struggling in RAN business
Futuriom and Dell’Oro weigh in on SD-WAN and SASE market: single vendor solutions prevail
UScellular’s Home Internet/FWA now has >100K customers
UScellular now has more than 100,000 Home Internet/Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) customers and it anticipates even more growth over the coming years.
In 2022, fixed wireless services accounted for 90% of home broadband net additions, according to Leichtman Research Group. In the U.S., Verizon is by far the leader in 4G/5G FWA ending 2022 with 1.452 million fixed wireless home internet customers. The telco added 384K, 393K, 379K, and 342K in the last four quarters. It now has 2.229 million FWA internet subscribers.
In a press release on Tuesday, UScellular Chief Marketing Officer Eric Jagher said they knew rural areas in particular would see great benefit from having a FWA solution.
“We continue to enhance our Home Internet experience for customers, and the growth and positive response we’ve received to this service has us excited for the future. As we celebrate this milestone, we look forward to further updating the service so we can soon surpass hundreds of thousands of Home Internet customers,” Jagher stated.
As UScellular continues to build out its 5G mid-band network, more customers will be able to realize the fast, dependable connectivity that Home Internet provides. Earlier this year, UScellular launched its 5G mid-band network in parts of 10 states and expects to cover 1 million households by the end of the year and 3 million households by the end of 2024. This network can deliver speeds up to 10x faster than its 4G LTE network and low-band 5G.
UScellular initially offered Home Internet on its 4G LTE network and has upgraded the service with low-band, mid-band and mmWave 5G in select markets across the country. Most customers today can access 5G speeds on the service, which has led to a doubling of the customer base over the last 18 months. The company currently offers self-install, plug-and-play internal antennas and routers and a professionally installed external antenna in certain areas. Later this year, the company expects to have additional self-install options available to help meet the evolving needs of customers.
Additionally, UScellular offers a free Internet Setup Coach for all new customers. Experts from Asurion are available via phone to help customers with router placement for the best speeds and getting all essential devices – like computers, TVs and doorbells – connected to their home’s Wi-Fi network.
As UScellular looks to further enhance and expand its Home Internet service especially in rural areas, funding from the National Telecommunications and Information Administration’s Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program will be important. Fixed wireless technology will likely be the best and most affordable option in many under- and un-served areas to help bridge the digital divide in the United States.
Indeed, UScellular has made it clear that it wants to use funds from the BEAD program to build more towers and serve more rural areas with FWA while increasing its 5G mobile coverage.
The telco this week reiterated the importance of that BEAD funding. “Fixed wireless technology will likely be the best and most affordable option in many under- and un-served areas to help bridge the digital divide in the United States,” the company stated.
About UScellular:
UScellular is the fourth-largest full-service wireless carrier in the United States, providing national network coverage and industry-leading innovations designed to help customers stay connected to the things that matter most. The Chicago-based carrier provides a strong, reliable network supported by the latest technology and offers a wide range of communication services that enhance consumers’ lives, increase the competitiveness of local businesses and improve the efficiency of government operations. Through its After School Access Project, the company has pledged to provide hotspots and service to help up to 50,000 youth connect to reliable internet. Additionally, UScellular has price protected all of its plans, promising not to increase prices through at least the end of 2024. To learn more about UScellular, visit one of its retail stores or www.uscellular.com. To get the latest news, visit newsroom.uscellular.com.
References:
For more information about UScellular’s efforts:
https://newsroom.uscellular.com/connecting-us/
https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/uscellular-marks-100000-fwa-customers
UScellular Launches 5G Mid-Band Network in parts of 10 states
US Cellular touts 5G millimeter wave and cell tower agreement with Dish Network
GSA FWA Report: 38 commercially launched 5G FWA networks in the EU; Speeds revealed
GSA has been tracking the FWA broadband market to determine the evolving extent and nature of availability of services based on LTE or 5G technologies around the world. The number of network operators delivering FWA services varies widely by region, as Figures 3 and 4 show.
There are more operators marketing FWA services in Europe than any other region, particularly in the 27 countries that make up the EU, which has 38 commercially launched 5G FWA networks. An operator’s decision about whether to offer services will depend on various factors: how well covered with fixed-line broadband services the country or territory is; whether there are many remote regions with little to no broadband availability; whether that operator provides a fixed network at all and how advanced that network is from a technology perspective; and whether its rivals have introduced a FWA service. Where one operator introduces such a service, its rivals often quickly follow.
FWA Service Speeds:
Operators are often opaque about the FWA service speeds their LTE and 5G customers should expect. We believe this is because actual network performance depends on distance from cell towers, speed of movement or local interference — from walls or other physical or electronic objects — and other factors.
Operators often do not provide speed information or are deliberately vague talking about the types of speed that LTE, LTE-Advanced and 5G can theoretically provide, mentioning the maximum theoretical speed a customer might get (in a perfect scenario), mentioning speeds measured by third parties or, occasionally, offering average speed information.
GSA collected information about the fastest download speeds quoted by operators for their FWA services where data was available. The maximum speeds promoted for LTE FWA services range from 1 Mbps to 2.5 Gbps. The average of the marketed maximum peak download speeds that GSA identified was 173.3 Mbps, up significantly from 155.2 Mbps in November 2022 (based on maximum speed data for 333 operators, up from 317 operators identified as promoting their LTE FWA speeds in November 2022).
Data on 5G FWA maximum download speeds was collected from 72 operators (compared with 36 in June 2021). Quoted peak speeds ranged from 10 Mbps to 5400 Mbps in the downlink, with half of them sitting in the 250Mbps to 2300 Mbps range. The average 5G FWA maximum peak download speed identified by GSA is 1077 Mbps, up significantly from 875 Mbps in November 2022 and from 863 Mbps in June 2022.
Where information was made available to GSA, the average or typical peak download speed marketed to customers was lower at an estimated 31.8 Mbps for LTE networks, compared with 32.7 Mbps in November 2022 and 38.5 Mbps at the end of 2020; and just over an estimated 236.2 Mbps for 5G FWA services, down from 248.3 Mbps in November 2022 and up from 147 Mbps in November 2020. It should be noted that the sample sizes of operators quoting their average speeds were much smaller than the sample sizes of those quoting maximum speeds, at 35 for LTE and 14 operators for 5G, and that some quoted average ranges (where we used the midpoint in the range).
Conclusions:
The promotion of LTE and 5G networks as a mainstream mechanism for the delivery of broadband services to homes and businesses is now well established, with lots of services available from network operators, supported by a wide range of devices from many vendors.
FWA services are being offered as an alternative or complement to fixed broadband; the nature of the message is dependent on whether an operator already owns a large fixed broadband network it wishes to continue to sell.
As more operator networks are upgraded to LTE-Advanced, as more 5G networks are built out and as more (particularly 5G) CPE devices are commercialised, GSA expects the number of FWA services to rise. This study will be updated in November 2023
ABI Research joins the chorus: 5G FWA is a competitive alternative to wired broadband access
5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) allows Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) to provide Quality of Service (QoS) offerings with higher speeds and unlimited data, creating a demand for 5G FWA, which will continue to grow over the next few years. Global technology intelligence firm ABI Research forecasts that 5G FWA subscriptions will reach 72 million by 2027, representing 35% of the total FWA market in 2027.
Although LTE FWA services have already been widely deployed worldwide, they often cannot provide the speed needed to compete with wired broadband connections. 5G FWA is set to offer data rates rivaling the range of fiber, making it a competitive alternative to wired broadband solutions. “FWA is one of the few use cases that utilize 5G Massive Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (mMIMO) networks to their full extent, with a typical monthly utilization that could be as high as 1TB per subscriber. Many MNOs that have launched 5G are expected to offer FWA services, driving 5G FWA market growth,” explains Fei Liu, 5G and Mobile Network Infrastructure Industry Analyst at ABI Research.
Both developed and emerging markets benefit from 5G FWA. North America, Western Europe, and Asia Pacific are driving 5G FWA deployments. In North America and Western Europe, MNOs are using 5G FWA to compete with DSL broadband services. Major U.S. operators, like T-Mobile, see a huge opportunity with 5G FWA because two-thirds of its residential customers living in urban and suburban areas are dissatisfied cable customers, making up a significant amount of its 5G FWA customers. In Western Europe, EE UK launched 5G FWA in 2019 and plans to cover 90% of the UK with 5G by 2028. Fastweb in Italy launched 5G FWA in 2020 and plans to cover 12.5 million homes and businesses by 2025. There is growing interest in the Asia Pacific as Reliance Jio eyes 100 million homes through 5G FWA.
“MNOs should launch 5G FWA to utilize their network capacity to make additional revenue. However, they need to be vigilant on how many FWA subscribers they can support, and which type of service they wish to offer (best effort or QoS). In the long term, MNOs need to apply Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques such as Machine Learning (ML) to evaluate their network resource, network capacity, and spectrum to ensure a steady 5G FWA growth,” Liu recommends. “When the 5G FWA service starts to challenge their network capacity, these MNOs may have to deploy millimeter wave (mmWave) to guarantee the quality of their FWA services and overall network capacity,” Liu concludes.
These findings are from ABI Research’s Fixed Wireless Access market data report. This market data is part of the company’s 5G & Mobile Network Infrastructure research service, which includes research, data, and analyst insights. Market Data spreadsheets comprise deep data, market share analysis, and highly segmented, service-specific forecasts to provide detailed insight into where opportunities lie.
Fixed-wireless access antennas can be placed near windows or on roofs as shown in this diagram:
Image credit: Qualcomm
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Other Market Rearch Firm Findings and Forecasts for 5G FWA:
A study published by Leichtman Research Group earlier this month claimed that FWA services accounted for 90% of U.S. net broadband additions last year, compared to 20% in 2021. Fixed wireless/5G home Internet services from T-Mobile and Verizon added about 3,170,000 subscribers in 2022 – compared to about 730,000 net adds in 2021.
Verizon VP Sampath Sowmyanarayan recently said that Verizon’s FWA is winning 50 to 60% of its consumer segment customers and about half of its business segment customers from cablecos, with only a minority of subscribers coming from unserved and/or rural areas. The rural percentage may rise in the future due to growing availability and C Band deployment in rural markets, but not because capacity constraints are limiting it in urban and suburban markets. Outside the U.S.:
- EE UK launched 5G FWA in 2019 and plans to cover 90 percent of the UK with 5G by 2028.
- Fastweb in Italy launched 5G FWA in 2020 and plans to cover 12.5 million homes and businesses by 2025.
- “There is growing interest in the Asia Pacific as Reliance Jio eyes 100 million homes through 5G FWA.” Admittedly Jio has yet to offer a time frame for hitting that target, but if it makes good on its pledge to offer nationwide 5G coverage by the end of this year, 100 million FWA customers by 2027 seems eminently achievable.
Other bullish forecasts for the global 5G FWA market from JC Market Research and Research & Markets are here and here.
Regarding, telco 5G FWA revenues, a Juniper Research forecast last September was $2.5 billion globally this year, up from $515 million in 2022. It expects that number to climb to $24 billion by 2027 driven by consumers switching from fixed broadband.
About ABI Research:
ABI Research is a global technology intelligence firm delivering actionable research and strategic guidance to technology leaders, innovators, and decision makers around the world. Our research focuses on the transformative technologies that are dramatically reshaping industries, economies, and workforces today.
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References:
https://telecoms.com/520843/5g-fwa-emerging-as-a-competitive-alternative-to-fixed-broadband/
https://telecoms.com/517535/telco-5g-fixed-wireless-revenues-set-to-rocket/
Research & Markets: 5G FWA Global Market to hit $38.17B by 2026 for a CAGR of 87.1%
JC Market Research: 5G FWA market to reach $21.7 billion in 2029 for a CAGR of 65.6%
5G FWA launched by South Africa’s Telkom, rather than 5G Mobile
Leichtman Research Group: Fixed Wireless Services Accounted for 90% of the Broadband Net Adds in 2022!
Leichtman Research Group, Inc. (LRG) found that the largest cable and wireline phone providers and fixed wireless services in the U.S. – representing about 95% of the market – acquired about 3,500,000 net additional broadband Internet subscribers in 2022, compared to a pro forma gain of about 3,725,000 subscribers in 2021.
These top broadband providers account for about 110.5 million subscribers, with top cable companies having 75.6 million broadband subscribers, top wireline phone companies having 30.8 million subscribers, and top fixed wireless services having 4.1 million subscribers.
LRG’s findings for 2022 include:
- Overall, broadband additions in 2022 were 94% of those in 2021.
- The top cable companies added about 515,000 subscribers in 2022 – compared to about 2.8 million net adds in 2021.
- The top wireline phone companies lost about 180,000 total broadband subscribers in 2022 – compared to about 210,000 net adds in 2021.
- Wireline Telcos had about 2.4 million net adds via fiber in 2022, offset by about 2.6 million non-fiber net losses.
- Fixed wireless/5G home Internet services from T-Mobile and Verizon added about 3,170,000 subscribers in 2022 – compared to about 730,000 net adds in 2021.
“Top broadband providers added about 3.5 million subscribers in 2022. Fixed wireless services (FWA) accounted for 90% of the net broadband additions in 2022, compared to 20% of the net adds in 2021,” said Bruce Leichtman, president and principal analyst for Leichtman Research Group, Inc. “Total broadband net adds in 2022 were slightly lower than last year, and down from about 5 million in 2020, but were more than in any year from 2012-2019.”
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FWA in the Spotlight:
A recent survey of some T-Mobile fixed wireless customers, conducted by the financial analysts at Wolfe Research, “T-Mobile Fixed Wireless Consumer Survey & Broadband Industry Implications,” found that 90% rated their service as “good enough.” The firm surveyed Facebook’s T-Mobile FWA user group, totalling over 15,000 members, in December 2022. Based on the 60 replies it received, 90% said they were mostly satisfied. The firm also found that 42% of respondents previously subscribed to a cable connection, 37% hailed from DSL operators, and 6% previously used fiber. Around 8% had no prior broadband service. Moreover, the financial analysts at Evercore expect T-Mobile to accumulate around 450,000 new fixed wireless customers in the first quarter of 2023, down from the 524,000 the operator reported in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Verizon added 262,000 residential FWA customers in Q4, up from +38,000 in the year-ago period, to end 2022 with 884,000 residential FWA subscribers. The company also signed on 117,000 business FWA subs in the quarter, up from +40,000 in the year-ago period, ending 2022 with 568,000 business FWA customers. About 70% of the consumer fixed wireless gross additions have come from bundling an existing wireless service, while 30% are new to Verizon. Interestingly, the experience is flipped for Verizon Business, where 70% of FWA customers were new to Verizon.
In contrast to the widely-held view that FWA is a “lower quality” service than wired broadband, Verizon says their principal selling point is FWA network’s greater reliability versus wireline alternatives. Cable’s outside plant issues can take days to resolve, a particularly critical issue in B2B, where cablecos (like Comcast Business) have increased their market share.
Image Credit: Verizon
The Wireless Internet Service Providers Association (WISPA) kicked off its annual trade show this week in Louisville, Kentucky, stating that WISPs service a total of 9 million Americans, many of whom live in the hardest to reach and serve parts of the country
According to Fierce Wireless, Cox is using 5G technology to test FWA services near Macon, Georgia; Tucson, Arizona; and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.
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| Broadband Providers | Subscribers at end of 2022 | Net Adds in 2022 |
| Cable Companies | ||
| Comcast | 32,151,000 | 250,000 |
| Charter | 30,433,000 | 344,000 |
| Cox* | 5,560,000 | 30,000 |
| Altice | 4,282,900 | (103,300) |
| Mediacom* | 1,468,000 | 5,000 |
| Cable One** | 1,060,400 | 14,400 |
| Breezeline** | 693,781 | (22,997) |
| Total Top Cable | 75,649,081 | 517,103 |
| Wireline Phone Companies | ||
| AT&T | 15,386,000 | (118,000) |
| Verizon | 7,484,000 | 119,000 |
| Lumen^ | 3,037,000 | (253,000) |
| Frontier | 2,839,000 | 40,000 |
| Windstream* | 1,175,000 | 10,300 |
| TDS | 510,000 | 19,700 |
| Consolidated** | 367,458 | 724 |
| Total Top Wireline Phone | 30,798,458 | (181,276) |
| Fixed Wireless Services | ||
| T-Mobile | 2,646,000 | 2,000,000 |
| Verizon | 1,452,000 | 1,171,000 |
| Total Top Fixed Wireless | 4,098,000 | 3,171,000 |
| Total Top Broadband | 110,545,539 | 3,506,827 |
* LRG estimate
** Includes LRG estimate of pro forma net adds
^ Includes the impact of a divestiture completed in October 2022
- TDS residential subscribers, includes 305,200 wireline subscribers and 204,800 cable subscribers
- Company subscriber counts may not solely represent residential households – about 6.5% of the total are non-residential
- Top broadband providers represent approximately 95% of all subscribers
- Net additions reflect pro forma results from system sales and acquisitions, reporting adjustments, and the addition of new providers to the list – therefore, comparing totals in this release to prior releases will not produce accurate findings
About Leichtman Research Group, Inc:
Leichtman Research Group, Inc. (LRG) specializes in research and analysis on broadband, media and entertainment industries. LRG combines ongoing consumer surveys with industry tracking and analysis, to provide companies with a richer understanding of current market conditions, and the potential impact and adoption of new products and services. For more information about LRG, please call (603) 397-5400 or visit www.LeichtmanResearch.com
References:
https://wispa.org/news_manager.php?page=29725
https://www.verizon.com/about/blog/fixed-wireless-access
Dell’Oro: XGS, 25G, and Early 50G PON Rollouts to Fuel Broadband Spending
A newly published report by Dell’Oro Group predicts that sales of PON (Passive Optical Network) equipment for fiber-to-the-home deployments, cable broadband access equipment, and fixed wireless CPE will all increase from 2022 to 2027, as service providers continue to expand their fiber and DOCSIS 4.0 networks, while expanding the types of services they deliver to residential subscribers.
“Service providers around the world continue to transition their broadband networks to fiber and retire their existing copper and DSL networks,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “With markets expected to become more competitive, broadband providers will have to continue spending in order to differentiate their services not only by increasing advertised speeds, but also improving latency and expanding managed Wi-Fi services,” added Heynen.
Additional highlights from the Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year January 2023 Forecast Report:
- PON equipment revenue is expected to grow from $11.0 B in 2022 to $13.2 B in 2027, driven largely by XGS-PON deployments in North America, EMEA, and CALA.
- Revenue for Cable Distributed Access Equipment (Virtual CCAP, Remote PHY Devices, Remote MACPHY Devices, and Remote OLTs [1.]) is expected to reach $1.5 B by 2027, as operators ramp their DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber deployments.
- Revenue for Fixed Wireless CPE [2.] is expected to reach $2.2 B by 2027, led by shipments of 5G sub-6GHz and 5G Millimeter Wave units.
Note 1. Remote OLTs (Optical Line Terminals) can be deployed in distributed access nodes to support targeted deployments of FTTP. Comcast is already doing that for its next-gen HFC network. But others, such as Charter Communications, are also ramping up their respective efforts and pursuing similar deployment models.
“You’re now talking about a whole new architecture with remote OLTs, virtual CMTSs and remote PHY. It will take longer to operationalize. It’s a slower burn than it used to be in the past,” Heynan said. He expects cable access network spending to continue climbing past 2027 as other cablecos join the mix.
Note 2. Heynen expects FWA CPE spending to stay steady through 2024, but notes that some providers might run into capacity issues that curtail growth and will also be faced with fiercer competition from fiber and newly upgraded HFC networks. “That puts a ceiling on how much growth can happen for fixed wireless,” he said. While T-Mobile and Verizon are now driving FWA growth in the U.S., we wonder how the future will shake out for the WISP (wireless ISP) sector, which is also seeing steady growth at the moment. As WISPs (Wireless Internet Service Providers) seek out government subsidy opportunities, some may need to consider licensed spectrum or transition to fiber across their footprint.
The Dell’Oro Group Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year Forecast Report provides a complete overview of the Broadband Access market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and port/unit shipments for PON, Cable, Fixed Wireless, and DSL equipment. Covered equipment includes Converged Cable Access Platforms (CCAP), Distributed Access Architectures (DAA), DSL Access Multiplexers (DSLAMs), PON Optical Line Terminals (OLTs), Customer Premises Equipment ([CPE] for Cable, DSL, PON, Fixed Wireless), along with Residential WLAN Equipment, including Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 7 Gateways and Routers. For more information about the report, please contact [email protected].
Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, security, enterprise networks, data center infrastructure markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions. For more information, contact Dell’Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit www.delloro.com.
References:
Broadband network spending set to climb as cable gets its groove back | Light Reading
Dell’Oro: FWA revenues on track to advance 35% in 2022 led by North America
Dell’Oro: PONs boost Broadband Access; Total Telecom & Enterprise Network Equipment Markets
Dell’Oro: PON ONT spending +15% Year over Year
Dell’Oro: 5G Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) deployments to be driven by lower cost CPE
Passive Optical Network (PON) technologies moving to 10G and 25G
MoffettNathanson: ROI will be disappointing for new fiber deployments; FWA best for rural markets
From two recent research reports to clients, MoffettNathanson chief analyst Craig Moffett wrote:
There is no question that there will be a great deal of new fiber deployed in the U.S. But we expect it will be considerably less than current worst-case scenarios for two reasons.
- There simply isn’t sufficient labor availability for all operators to meet the projections they’ve set forth (this issue will be significantly exacerbated by the upcoming rural Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) program, which will introduce a dramatic new source of labor demand).
- The expected return from fiber overbuilds will be disappointing, in our view, both because deployment costs (including the cost of capital) have risen sharply, and because expected densities of available markets are falling sharply.
We are skeptical about the returns that will be generated by fiber builds, as costs are rising and densities are falling. The spiraling costs of fiber deployment also make it likely that there will be upward, not downward, pressure on broadband ARPU in competitive markets, as overbuilders scramble to cost-justify not only their existing projects, but, perhaps more importantly, the projects on which they have not yet broken ground (and which, without a more generous ARPU assumption, can no longer be return-justified). Craig had argued earlier this year that the fiber buildout bubble may pop.
Wireless operators have an enormous cost advantage in offering fixed wireless access (FWA) service on preexisting network facilities; the marginal cost of offering FWA is zero if it is simply using excess capacity. The capacity available for such a strategy is relatively limited, making the strategic leverage of FWA relatively limited as well. Cable operators have a smaller, but still significant, cost advantage in offering wireless services that can offload at least some of their traffic onto existing infrastructure. And unlike wireless operators offering FWA, their capacity to do so is unlimited.
Almost no telecom investor with whom we have spoken views FWA as an important part of the story for the companies that actually offer it. Investors seem to have already come to the view (for the wireless operators, at least) that FWA is at best a costly sideline in rural markets. Longer term, the bigger threat to cable broadband is likely fiber rather than fixed wireless, Moffett said. But even with that, the analyst seems to be less concerned that cable operators will overspend on fiber or that overbuilders will present more competition.
The convergence arguments for fiber to the home (FTTH) are arguably even weaker. As we’ve pointed out often, AT&T’s wireline footprint covers but 45% or so of the U.S. (by population), and of that, just a third is wired for fiber. In total, then, AT&T can deliver a bundled solution to just 15% or so of the population. In our view, a strategy (bundling) that “works” in 15% of the country isn’t a strategy.
We certainly aren’t convinced that the U.S. market will be fundamentally shaped by convergence. But if it is, the cable operators, not the telcos, are positioned to benefit.
References:
MoffettNathanson: Fiber Bubble May Pop; AT&T is by far the largest (fiber) overbuilder in U.S.