RAN
Dell’Oro: RAN Market Stabilized in 2025 with 1% CAG forecast over next 5 years; Opinion on AI RAN, 5G Advanced, 6G RAN/Core risks
A recently published report from Dell’Oro Group reveals that the Radio Access Network (RAN) market ended the year on a stable note, with stronger than typical 3Q to 4Q seasonality. Fourth-quarter results were consistent with the broader stabilization trend that shaped the RAN market throughout the year, resulting in stable revenue trends for the full year.
“Taking into consideration that the RAN market lost around a fifth of its value between 2022 and 2024, this improved stability in 2025 represents a welcome shift in market conditions,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at the Dell’Oro Group. “Helping to explain the improved sentiment are the more favorable regional mix, easier comparisons, and the weaker USD. Even so, we have not made any material changes to the short-term outlook and still expect the market to be mostly flat in 2026,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the 4Q 2025 RAN report:
- Revenue rankings did not change in 2025. The top 5 RAN suppliers by worldwide revenue are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
- RAN vendor dynamics shifted in 2025—leading vendors strengthened their positions, while smaller suppliers adjusted their strategies. As a result, overall RAN market concentration increased during the year.
- Overall market concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index, reached a 10-year high in 2025.
- In 2025, Huawei and Nokia gained ground, Ericsson and Samsung were stable, and ZTE’s RAN revenue share fell.
- The fundamentals that shape the RAN market have not changed, and the long-term trajectory discussed in the most recent 5-year forecast still holds (1% CAGR, 2025-2030).
- The short-term outlook is mostly unchanged, with total RAN expected to remain stable in 2026.
RAN is not a growth market over time (0% CAGR 2020-2025 in nominal US $). However, it can go through periods of higher and lower capital intensity ratios as operators align investment needs with the availability of new spectrum/technologies and demand for capacity. The base case forecast is for stable RAN and capex trends, resulting in further improvements in capital intensity ratios before 6G investments commence towards the end of the forecast period. Worldwide RAN revenue is projected to grow at a 1% CAGR over the next five years, as rapidly declining LTE capex will offset continued 5G and initial 6G investments. RAN as a share of wireless capex is expected to average in the 20 to 25 percentage share range over the forecast period.
Dell’Oro Group’s RAN Quarterly Report offers a complete overview of the RAN industry, with tables covering manufacturers’ and market revenue for multiple RAN segments including 5G NR Sub-7 GHz, 5G NR mmWave, LTE, macro base stations and radios, small cells, Massive MIMO, Open RAN, and vRAN. The report also tracks the RAN market by region and includes a four-quarter outlook. To purchase this report, please contact us by email at [email protected].
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Editors Opinion:
This author believes that the only RAN growth driver over the next 5 years will be investments in 5G SA core networks, which finally is starting to be deployed more than 5G NSA networks as we noted in today’s companion IEEE Techblog post. Omdia forecasts that 5G SA core network software spending will grow at an 8.8% CAGR between 2025 and 2030, making it a primary driver of investment. Continued 5G investments by global telcos are largely being offset by sharply declining 4G-LTE investments, leading to a “stable” rather than a growing RAN market.
Neither AI RAN, 5G Advanced, or Open RAN will be significant RAN market growth drivers:
- 5G Advanced (5G-A): 5G Advanced is widely considered a key part of the roadmap toward 6G. While some operators are focusing on it, its initial impact on overall global RAN revenue is expected to be more incremental rather than a massive boom in the next 2-3 years. If 5G-Advanced is seen by operators as “incremental” and 6G is legally/technically bound to a 2030/2031 ITU-R standards and 3GPP spec finalization, there is very little “must-have” radio hardware for a network operator to buy before 2030 at the earliest.
- AI-RAN: While AI-RAN is viewed as a key tool for improving efficiency and reducing energy costs (operational expenditure), its immediate impact on capital investment (Capex) in RAN equipment is likely to be slower. However, some, like Samsung, argue that AI-RAN is already driving optimizations in 2026. AI-RAN is primarily an OpEx play. Network operators are buying software and specialized silicon to lower their energy bills and automate frequency management. While this is critical for their survival, it doesn’t create a new “coverage wave” of RAN spending. It’s simply a “treading water” investment.
- Open RAN: has not led to increased RAN sales or multi-vendor equipment in the same RAN. Rather, it is a procurement shift, not a market expander.
There may be pockets of RAN growth in 5G-Advanced for specific performance needs, 5G private networks, and AI-enabled efficiency tools. However, we believe that the global RAN market will continue to stagnate till 6G network are deployed in early 2031.
Stefan had forecast that “cumulative 6G RAN investments over the 2029-2034 period are projected to account for 55 to 60% of the total RAN capex over that time period.” However, 6G capex does not translate into 6G RAN revenue until 6G is actually deployed!
Any earlier 6G deployment will be BEFORE the 5G RAN (IMT 2030 RIT/SRITs) and IMT 2030 Frequency arrangements standards are approved by ITU-R in late 2030 or early 2031 as IMT 2030 recommendations. Note that 3GPP Release 21 marks the official start of its normative 6G work. While the specific milestones for Release 21 are to be decided by June 2026, it is widely expected to produce the first formal 6G RAN technical specifications by late 2028 or early 2029 and submit them to ITU-R WP 5D via ATIS. Therefore, any 6G RAN equipment shipped before the 2030 ITU seal of approval would be based on pre-standardized or early 3GPP specifications that may require later alignment and hardware/software updates.
–>No rational wireless network operator wants to deploy thousands of “6G-ready” sites in 2029 only to find that the ITU-R IMT 2030 RIT/SRITs and/or Frequency Arrangements finalized in late 2030 require a hardware filter change or a different sub-carrier spacing to meet global interference requirements.
Hopefully, 3GPP will have finalized its 6G core network specs during the same time period so that 6G RANs will be complemented with 6G core networks- unlike the initial 5G RAN rollouts which had 4G evolved packet cores (5G NSA).
Potential Repeat Problem of No 6G Core Network Standard:
It’s highly likely that 3GPP will once again (like with 5G) not submit their 6G core network specs to ITU-T which is responsible for non-radio aspects of wireless networks. That means that 3GPP effectively operates as a silo for the 6G Core Network (refusing ITU-T oversight),so there will likely be no unified global regulatory mandate for the “6G system” as a whole—only for the “radio” (ITU-R IMT 2030 recommendations). This might allow operators to delay 6G SA Core deployments indefinitely, which in turn kills the business case for buying new 5G-Advanced or AI-RAN hardware.
Google Gemini: If the 6G Core Network isn’t standardized in a way that allows operators to actually monetize these new radio architectures, it doesn’t matter if the RAN is “Open,” “AI-enabled,” or “Advanced.” It’s still just a cost center on a stagnant balance sheet. If the “brain” (6G Core) doesn’t support the “limbs” (6G RAN), the market may not buy the limbs and 6G RAN sales will disappoint, just as 5G RAN sales did. Many carriers are still struggling to recoup the billions spent on 5G deployment so are seriously concerned about the 6G ROI.
| Feature | 5G Challenge | 6G Challenge |
|---|---|---|
| Spectrum | Mid-band & mmWave (24-52 GHz) | Sub-THz & THz (>100 GHz) |
| Connectivity | Massive IoT (1M devices/km²) | Internet of Senses (10M devices/km²) |
| Architecture | Cloud-native | AI-native & “Cell-free” MIMO |
| Primary Goal | Enhanced Mobile Broadband | Convergence of Physical & Digital worlds |
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References:
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7422420902362988544/
6G Capex Ramp to Start Around 2030, According to Dell’Oro Group
Dell’Oro: Mobile Core Networks +15% in 2025; Ookla: Global Reality Check on 5G SA and 5G Advanced in 2026
Dell’Oro: RAN market stable, Mobile Core Network market +14% Y/Y with 72 5G SA core networks deployed
Omdia on resurgence of Huawei: #1 RAN vendor in 3 out of 5 regions; RAN market has bottomed
Dell’Oro Group: RAN Market Grows Outside of China in 2Q 2025
Dell’Oro: AI RAN to account for 1/3 of RAN market by 2029; AI RAN Alliance membership increases but few telcos have joined
Omdia: Huawei increases global RAN market share due to China hegemony
Network equipment vendors increase R&D; shift focus as 0% RAN market growth forecast for next 5 years!
vRAN market disappoints – just like OpenRAN and mobile 5G
Analysis: Rakuten Mobile and Intel partnership to embed AI directly into vRAN
Today, Rakuten Mobile and Intel announced a partnership to embed Artificial Intelligence (AI) directly into the virtualized Radio Access Network (vRAN) stack. While vRAN currently represents a small percentage of the total RAN market (Dell’Oro Group recently forecasts vRAN to account for 5% to 10% of the total RAN market by 2026), this partnership could boost increase that percentage as it addresses key adoption hurdles—performance, power, and AI integration. Key areas of innovation include:
- Enhanced Wireless Spectral Efficiency: Optimizing spectrum utilization for superior network performance and capacity.
- Automated RAN Operations: Streamlining network management and reducing operational complexities through intelligent automation.
- Optimized Resource Allocation: Dynamically allocating network resources for maximum efficiency and subscriber experience.
- Increased Energy Efficiency: Significantly reducing power consumption in the RAN, contributing to sustainable network operations.
The partnership essentially aims to make vRAN superior in performance and TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) compared to traditional, proprietary, purpose built RAN hardware.
“We are incredibly excited to expand our collaboration with Intel to pioneer truly AI-native RAN architectures,” said Sharad Sriwastawa, co-CEO and CTO, Rakuten Mobile. “Together, we are validating transformative AI-driven innovations that will not only shape but define the future of mobile networks. This partnership showcases how intelligent RAN can be achieved through the seamless and efficient integration of AI workloads directly within existing vRAN software stacks, delivering unparalleled performance and efficiency.”
Rakuten Mobile and Intel are engaged in rigorous testing and validation of cutting-edge RAN AI use cases across Layer 1, Layer 2, and comprehensive RAN operation and network platform management. A core objective is the seamless integration of AI directly into the RAN stack, meticulously addressing integration challenges while upholding carrier-grade reliability and stringent latency requirements.
Utilizing Intel FlexRAN reference software, the Intel vRAN AI Development Kit, and a robust suite of AI tools and libraries, Rakuten Mobile is collaboratively training, optimizing, and deploying sophisticated AI models specifically tailored for demanding RAN workloads. This collaborative effort is designed to realize ultra-low, real-time AI latency on Intel Xeon 6 SoC, capitalizing on their built-in AI acceleration capabilities, including AVX512/VNNI and AMX.
“AI is transforming how networks are built and operated,” said Kevork Kechichian, Executive Vice President and General Manager of the Data Center Group, Intel Corporation. “Together with Rakuten, we are demonstrating how AI benefits can be achieved in vRAN. Intel Xeon processors power the majority of commercial vRAN deployments worldwide, and this transformation momentum continues to accelerate. Intel is providing AI-ready Xeon platforms that allow operators like Rakuten to design AI-ready infrastructure from the ground up, with built-in acceleration capabilities.”
Rakuten says they are “poised to unlock new levels of RAN performance, efficiency, and automation by embedding AI directly into the RAN software stack, this AI-native evolution represents the future of cloud-native, AI-powered RAN – inherently software-upgradable and built on open, general-purpose computing platforms. Additionally, the extended collaboration between Rakuten Mobile and Intel marks a significant step toward realizing the vision of autonomous, self-optimizing networks and powerfully reinforces both companies’ commitment to open, programmable, and intelligent RAN infrastructure worldwide.”
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- AI-Native Efficiency & Performance: The collaboration focuses on integrating AI to improve network performance and energy efficiency, which is a major pain point for operators. By embedding AI directly into the vRAN stack, they are enhancing wireless spectral efficiency, reducing power consumption, and automating RAN operations.
- Leveraging High-Performance Hardware: The initiative utilizes Intel® Xeon® 6 processors with built-in vRAN Boost. This eliminates the need for external, power-hungry accelerator cards, offering up to 2.4x more capacity and 70% better performance-per-watt.
- Validation of Large-Scale Commercial Viability: Rakuten Mobile operates the world’s first fully virtualized, cloud-native network. Its continued collaboration with Intel to make the vRAN AI-native provides a proven blueprint for other operators, reducing the perceived risk of adopting vRAN, particularly in brownfield (existing) networks.
- Acceleration of Open RAN Ecosystem: The collaboration supports the broader push towards Open RAN, which is expected to see a significant rise in market share, doubling between 2022 and 2026.
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- Market Share Shift: Omdia forecasts that vRAN’s share of the RAN baseband subsector will reach 20% by 2028. That’s a significant jump from its current low single-digit percentage.
- Explosive CAGR: The global vRAN market is projected to grow from approximately $16.6 billion in 2024 to nearly $80 billion by 2033, representing a 19.5% CAGR.
- Small Cell Dominance: By the end of 2026, it is estimated that 77% of all vRAN implementations will be on small cell architectures, a key area where Rakuten and Intel have demonstrated success.
References:
https://corp.mobile.rakuten.co.jp/english/news/press/2026/0210_01/
Virtual RAN gets a boost from Samsung demo using Intel’s Grand Rapids/Xeon Series 6 SoC
RAN silicon rethink – from purpose built products & ASICs to general purpose processors or GPUs for vRAN & AI RAN
vRAN market disappoints – just like OpenRAN and mobile 5G
LightCounting: Open RAN/vRAN market is pausing and regrouping
Dell’Oro: Private 5G ecosystem is evolving; vRAN gaining momentum; skepticism increasing
https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/virtualized-ran-vran-market
https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/virtualized-radio-access-network-market-report
Vodafone Spain (Zegona), MasOrange and Telefonica in possible RANco joint venture
In an interview with Expansion published on January 26, 2026, Zegona [1.] CEO Eamonn O’Hare revealed that Vodafone Spain, MasOrange and Telefonica have been holding talks on the possibility of joining their mobile networks together since late last year. “We are talking with Orange and Telefónica to create a RANco,” he said.
Note 1. Zegona owns 100% of Vodafone Spain.
However, Zegona was unable to give the potential joint venture its full attention due to demands of its ongoing fiber projects. Telefonica and Vodafone created their Fiberpass joint venture (JV) in 2025 and agreed to sell a 40% stake to AXA in November. Meanwhile, Vodafone and MasOrange brought in GIC as an investor in their PremiumFiber JV last summer.
Eamonn O’Hare, president and CEO of Zegona
“The whole team was so involved in the fibercos that we didn’t have the time or energy to thoroughly develop the project,” O’Hare told the Expansion. Instead, his staff focused on tying up the fiber optic projects and then took a break over the Christmas period, he explained. “And now we’re back with more energy.”
Why a JV rather than a merger of telcos: “Mergers and acquisitions are not a priority in Spain and the regulatory risk is very high,” he said. Zegona has a greater motivation to make the RANco a reality. “Today there are three companies…that manage three national mobile networks with exactly the same fixed costs, but Orange and Telefónica have twice as many customers as us,” O’Hare explained. “Therefore, our national mobile network is inefficient. Just as our fixed infrastructure was inefficient and unprofitable, [and] that’s why we powered the fibercos.”
“It would be easier to broker a deal with MasOrange to share the network in certain areas, so the synergies would be in urban areas. But we don’t have anything with Telefónica, so there it would all be synergies.” Telefonica already has a mobile network sharing deal in place with Vodafone in sparsely populated areas, and was rumoured to be in talks with the telco on a broader RANco arrangement this time last year.
As a result, a partnership with Telefonica would bring greater synergies as there are no existing arrangements in place in the mobile space, but any deal would be a more difficult deal to hammer out and it would be trickier to bring in an investor, O’Hare added. Zegona has three priorities in Spain: to align its valuation with those of its competitors; to boost its cash flow to €1 billion; and to develop a RANco. “As long as we are in the middle of that transformation, we have no interest in mergers and acquisitions,” he said. And in addition, “the regulatory obstacle is…too big.”
“Historically, these small businesses have grown and then tried to sell themselves to MásMóvil. But MásMóvil no longer buys. Neither do we or Telefónica,” O’Hare said. “No one is buying. So they… will just be devoured by us and by Digi, as in the Pac-Man game.”
Would Huawei network equipment be used in the proposed Spanish RanCo? Vodafone is the mobile operator with the largest network provided by Huawei. Orange is reducing its share, and Telefónica only uses Huawei in part of its core network in Spain and not at all in its radio network. If the Brussels Cybersecurity Act mandates the replacement of this Chinese equipment, what will Vodafone Spain (Zegona) do?
“If Europe is more aggressive on the Huawei issue , I suppose we should accelerate efforts to reduce the amount of Huawei equipment in the network… should we accelerate RANco for this reason? Officially, the answer is no.”
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References:
https://www.expansion.com/empresas/tecnologia/2026/01/26/6973ab17468aebd1418b4590.html
SNS Telecom & IT: Private 5G Market Nears Mainstream With $5 Billion Surge
España hit with major telecom blackout after power outage April 28th
Orange Spain & Ericsson to build 5G Infrastructure for 3 High-Speed Rail Lines
Telefónica and Nokia partner to boost use of 5G SA network APIs
Telefónica launches 5G SA in >700 towns and cities in Spain
Telefónica – Nokia alliance for private mobile networks to accelerate digital transformation for enterprises in Latin America
Ericsson and O2 Telefónica demo Europe’s 1st Cloud RAN 5G mmWave FWA use case
Telecom and AI Status in the EU
Marvell shrinking share of the RAN custom silicon market & acquisition of XConn Technologies for AI data center connectivity
Samsung and Nokia currently use Marvell’s OCTEON Fusion baseband processors and OCTEON Data Processing Units (DPUs) in their 5G Radio Access Network (RAN) equipment.
- OCTEON Fusion Processors: Samsung uses these baseband processors in its 5G base stations, particularly for massive MIMO (Multiple-Input Multiple-Output) deployments that require significant compute power for complex beamforming algorithms.
- OCTEON and OCTEON Fusion Families: Samsung has leveraged multiple generations of these processors for baseband and transport processing solutions.
- Customized OCTEON Silicon: Nokia uses customized Marvell OCTEON silicon across key applications, including multi-RAT (Radio Access Technology) RAN and transport.
- OCTEON Fusion Processors: These are used for baseband processing in Nokia’s 5G products.
- OCTEON TX2 and OCTEON 10 Families: These infrastructure processors are used for demanding tasks like packet processing, security, and edge inferencing within Nokia’s 5G infrastructure.
- OCTEON 10 Fusion: Nokia is working with the latest generation of this 5nm baseband platform, which supports use cases from radio units (RU) to distributed units (DU) for both traditional and Open RAN architectures.
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Meanwhile, the total global RAN market has been declining for years as network operators slash investment in network equipment and cut jobs. According to Omdia (owned by Informa):
- Global RAN equipment sales fell from $45 billion in 2022 to $40 billion in 2023 and just $35 billion in 2024. Nokia’s mobile networks business group suffered an operating loss of €64 million (US$75 million) on sales of €5.3 billion ($6.2 billion) for the first nine months of 2025.
- For its 2023 fiscal year (ending in January 2023), Marvell’s carrier division made almost $1.1 billion in revenues, more than 18% of total company sales. Two years later, annual revenues had slumped to just $338.2 million, less than 6% of turnover.
- Marvell’s carrier sales have also recently improved in fiscal 2026, rising 88% year-over-year for the first nine months, to $436.3 billion. However, that’s still half as much as Marvell made during the first nine months of fiscal 2024, and interest in the RAN has seemingly evaporated.
- Samsung’s share of the shrinking RAN market has declined. Amid contraction of the entire addressable market, revenues generated by Samsung Networks fell from 5.39 trillion South Korean won ($3.74 billion) in 2022 to just KRW2.82 trillion ($1.95 billion) in 2024. For the first nine months of 2025, Samsung reported network sales of KRW2.1 trillion ($1.46 billion). But it has also lost market share, which dipped from 6.1% in 2023 to 4.8% in 2024, according to Omdia.
- Ericsson has two development tracks – one for purpose-built RAN products based partly on its own custom RAN silicon and the other for an Intel-based virtual RAN. In contrast to Samsung, the purpose-built RAN silicon portfolio today accounts for nearly all of the company’s sales.
- Ericsson’s senior managers increasingly talk about virtualization as a means of developing one set of software for multiple hardware platforms. The hope is that software originally designed for use with Intel’s processors could be redeployed on CPUs from AMD or licensees from ARM Ltd. with minimal coding changes. Such optionality combined with the narrowing of the performance gap between CPUs and purpose built RAN silicon would make it hard for Ericsson to justify investment in its own custom silicon.
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Today, Marvell announced it will acquire XConn Technologies for $540 million to boost AI/data center connectivity. In late 2025, the company announced the acquisition of Celestial AI for up to $5.5 billion to expand its optical interconnects for next-gen data centers, solidifying its position in infrastructure semiconductors.
Adding XConn’s PCIe and CXL switching technology (see illustrations below), fills gaps in Marvell’s silicon portfolio and enables the company to expand into higher-speed interconnects (like PCIe Gen 6).
XConn Technologies XC 50256 chip: 256 lanes with total 2,048GB/s switching capacity
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XC50256 CXL 2.0 Switch Chip
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As AI workloads scale, data center system design is evolving from single-rack deployments to larger, multi-rack configurations. These next-generation platforms increasingly require a high-bandwidth, ultra-low latency scale-up fabric such as UALink to efficiently connect large numbers of XPUs and enable more flexible resource sharing across the system.
UALink is a new open industry standard purpose-built for scale-up connectivity, enabling efficient, high-speed communication so multiple accelerators can operate together as a single, larger system. UALink builds on decades of PCIe ecosystem innovation and incorporates proven high-speed I/O techniques to meet the bandwidth, latency, and reach requirements of next-generation accelerated infrastructure.
Together, Marvell and XConn will bring together a significantly larger, integrated team to fully address the rapidly emerging opportunity in UALink switching as well as comprehensively support the growing list of customers and partners who want to work with Marvell in evolving their next generation AI platforms.
About Marvell:
To deliver the data infrastructure technology that connects the world, we’re building solutions on the most powerful foundation: our partnerships with our customers. Trusted by the world’s leading technology companies for over 30 years, we move, store, process and secure the world’s data with semiconductor solutions designed for our customers’ current needs and future ambitions. Through a process of deep collaboration and transparency, we’re ultimately changing the way tomorrow’s enterprise, cloud and carrier architectures transform—for the better.
About XConn Technologies:
XConn is the innovation leader in next-generation interconnect technology for high-performance computing and AI applications. The company is the industry’s first to deliver a hybrid switch supporting both CXL and PCIe on a single chip. Privately funded, XConn is setting the benchmark for data center interconnect with scalability, flexibility, and performance. For more information visit: https://www.xconn-tech.com
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References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/fragile-samsung-deal-with-marvell-shows-challenge-for-ran-chipmakers
RAN silicon rethink – from purpose built products & ASICs to general purpose processors or GPUs for vRAN & AI RAN
Dell’Oro: Analysis of the Nokia-NVIDIA-partnership on AI RAN
Intel FlexRAN™ gets boost from AT&T; faces competition from Marvel, Qualcomm, and EdgeQ for Open RAN silicon
Analysis: Nokia and Marvell partnership to develop 5G RAN silicon technology + other Nokia moves
Samsung and Marvell develop SoC for Massive MIMO and Advanced Radios
China gaining on U.S. in AI technology arms race- silicon, models and research
Omdia on resurgence of Huawei: #1 RAN vendor in 3 out of 5 regions; RAN market has bottomed
RAN silicon rethink – from purpose built products & ASICs to general purpose processors or GPUs for vRAN & AI RAN
The global RAN market has been declining for several years, putting pressure on network equipment vendors to cut costs and rethink their commitment to purpose built/custom RAN silicon products or ASICs. In 2022, the market for RAN equipment and software generated about $45 billion in revenues, according to research by Omdia, an Informa company. By 2024, annual revenue had tumbled to $35 billion – a 22.22% drop (and even worse in real dollars when you include inflation). As a result. it has become harder to justify the cost of expensive purpose-built silicon for the shriveling RAN market sector.
The Radio Access Network (RAN) is the segment of the mobile network interfacing the end-users and the mobile core network. In it’s IMT 2020 and IMT 2030 recommendations, ITU-R refers to the interface between a wireless endpoint and RAN equipment (base station or small cell) as the Radio Interface Technology or RIT). The core network specifications all come from 3GPP which has ETSI rubber stamp them.
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Ericsson and Samsung appear increasingly reliant on Intel for RAN silicon, while Nokia has been dependent on Marvell, but is planning to use NVIDIA GPUs in the near future (much more below). Let’s look at RAN silicon offerings from Intel, Marvell and NVIDIA:
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Key RAN silicon offerings from Intel include:
- Intel Xeon with Intel vRAN Boost: The primary processors for network and edge applications include specific Intel Xeon 6 SoCs (System-on-Chips) that integrate Intel’s vRAN Boost accelerators directly on the die. This integration helps offload demanding Layer 1 (physical layer) processing, such as forward error correction, from the general-purpose CPU cores.
- Integrated Accelerators: These built-in accelerators are designed to improve performance-per-watt and increase capacity for RAN workloads. Intel’s approach is to provide high performance using common, off-the-shelf hardware with specialized acceleration, contrasting with other approaches that might rely entirely on general-purpose CPUs.
- FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Arrays): Through its acquisition of Altera, Intel offers FPGAs which can also be used in some RAN applications, allowing for flexible, programmable hardware solutions.
- Intel has a significant market share in 5G base station silicon and its upcoming Granite Rapids processors (part of the Xeon 6 family) are being developed to maintain its strong position in this market, including for Massive MIMO applications. The company faces strong competition, but its next-generation processors aim to improve performance and efficiency for both core and edge computing in 5G networks. massive MIMO into future chips, such as the upcoming Granite Rapids generation.
- OCTEON Fusion Processors: These are baseband processors optimized for cost, power, and programmability, widely used in both traditional and Open RAN (O-RAN) architectures. The latest iteration, the OCTEON 10 Fusion processor, provides comprehensive in-line 5G Layer 1 acceleration, enabling RAN virtualization in cloud data centers.
- OCTEON Data Processing Units (DPUs): The OCTEON TX2 and OCTEON 10 families are multi-core ARM-based processors that handle 5G transport processing, security, and edge inferencing for the RAN Intelligent Controller (RIC). They incorporate hardware accelerators for AI/ML functions, enabling optimized edge processing.
- AtlasOne Chipset: This is a 50Gbps PAM4 DSP (Digital Signal Processor) and TIA (Transimpedance Amplifier) chipset solution for 5G fronthaul, optimized for high performance and power efficiency in integrated, O-RAN, and vRAN architectures.
- Ethernet Switches and PHYs: Marvell’s Prestera switches and Alaska Ethernet physical layer (PHY) devices are used in carrier infrastructure to provide the necessary networking connectivity for 5G base stations and data centers.
- Marvell also works with partners to integrate its technology into accelerator cards, such as the Dell Open RAN Accelerator Card powered by the OCTEON Fusion platform, to provide carrier-grade vRAN solutions. Furthermore, Marvell offers custom ASIC design services for hyper-scalers and telecom customers who need highly optimized, specific silicon solutions for their unique 5G and AI infrastructure requirements.
3. NVIDIA’s new silicon platform for AI Radio Access Networks (AI-RAN) is the NVIDIA Aerial RAN Computer, which is built on the next-generation Blackwell architecture. The primary system for AI-RAN deployment is the NVIDIA Aerial RAN Computer-1, which utilizes the NVIDIA GB200 NVL2 platform.
Key NVIDIA RAN components and features include:
- NVIDIA Blackwell GPU: The core graphics processor that features 208 billion transistors and provides significant performance improvements for AI and data processing workloads compared to previous generations.
- NVIDIA Grace CPU: The GB200 NVL2 platform combines two Blackwell GPUs with two NVIDIA Grace CPUs, connected by a high-speed NVLink-C2C (Chip-to-Chip) interconnect to form a powerful, unified superchip.
- NVIDIA Aerial Software: The hardware runs a full software stack that includes NVIDIA Aerial CUDA-Accelerated RAN libraries and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software for 5G and future 6G networks.
- Specialized Networking: The platform uses NVIDIA BlueField-3 Data Processing Units (DPUs) for real-time data transmission and precision timing, and NVIDIA Spectrum-X Ethernet for high-speed networking, which are critical for RAN performance.
- The goal of this platform is to enable wireless telcos to run both traditional RAN and AI workloads concurrently on a common, energy-efficient, software-defined infrastructure, thereby creating new revenue opportunities and preparing for 6G.
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To many stakeholders, piggybacking on the general purpose processors used in PCs and data centers might be more sensible, but that would require Virtual RAN (vRAN), which replaces custom silicon with such general-purpose processors. However, it is a very small share of the RAN compute or baseband subsector. Omdia says it was just 10% in 2023, but the market research firm expects that share to more than double by 2028. It that forecast pans out, vRAN could conceivably replace some of the custom RAN silicon business with general purpose processors.
Lat year, Ericsson allocated approximately $5.7 billion of its R & D budget to design and development of ASICs for Layer 1 (PHY), the most demanding part of the baseband. It relies on Intel for other RAN silicon functionality. If virtual RAN claims a bigger share of a low- or no-growth market, Ericsson’s returns on the same level of investment in ASICs would decline because they wouldn’t be needed for vRAN. Also, Intel’s Granite Rapids could markedly narrow the performance and cost gap with purpose-built RAN chips.
“We are doing trials on many platforms,” said Per Narvinger, the head of Ericsson’s mobile networks business group, in reference to that taste testing of different chips. “But the more important thing is that we have actually created this disaggregation of and separation of hardware and software.”
The aim is to have a set of RAN software deployable on multiple hardware platforms. However, that is not achievable with ASICs, which create a tight union between hardware and software (they are inextricably tied together). The general-purpose options identified by Narvinger were AMD, Intel and Nvidia. Currently, Intel remains Ericsson’s sole silicon commercial vendor. Despite Ericsson’s professed enthusiasm for )single vendor) open RAN, its business today is nearly all about purpose-built 5G.
In sharp contrast, Samsung’s retreat from custom RAN silicon has appeared rapid. It is without doubt the biggest mainstream vendor of virtual RAN products, and there is barely interest in the purpose-built 5G technology it has developed with Marvell. The RAN that Samsung has built for Verizon in the US is entirely virtual. It is about to do the same in parts of Europe for Vodafone. Canada’s Telus purchases both virtual and purpose-built 5G products from Samsung. But Bernard Bureau, the operator’s vice president of wireless strategy, says the virtual now outperforms the traditional and is also significantly less expensive. The processors, as in the case of Ericsson, come exclusively from Intel.
- Ericsson’s primary concern likely centers on the hardware architecture utilized for Forward Error Correction (FEC), a resource-intensive Layer 1 function. While Intel’s Granite Rapids and preceding platforms integrate the FEC accelerator directly within the main processor, AMD provides this functionality via an external accelerator card. Ericsson has historically favored integrated solutions, citing the use of separate cards as an added expense.
- Samsung is evaluating virtualized RAN software that potentially obviates the need for a dedicated hardware accelerator when deployed on AMD’s high-core-count processors. Samsung is confident that the increased core density of AMD’s offerings can manage the computational load of a software-only FEC implementation, and a commercial offering may be imminent. Samsung’s transition to AMD processors from Intel would require minimal changes to existing software written for Intel’s x86 instruction set architecture.
Nokia’s situation is more complicated due to NVIDIA’s recent $1 billion investment in the company. An apparent condition is that Nokia will designing 5G and 6G network equipment that uses Nvidia’s GPUs. As we noted in yesterday’s IEEE Techblog post, many telcos regard those GPUs as an expensive and energy-hungry component, which makes using them a risky move by Nokia. Presumably, Nokia cannot use the money it has received from NVIDIA to develop 5G Advanced and 6G software specifically for Marvell’s special purpose RAN silicon. If Nokia develops RAN software that runs on NVIDIA GPUs it conceivably could be repurposed for another GPU platform rather than specialized RAN silicon or an ASIC. And the only viable GPU alternative to NVIDIA at this time (outside of China) is AMD.
References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/slow-death-of-custom-ran-silicon-opens-doors-for-amd
Omdia on resurgence of Huawei: #1 RAN vendor in 3 out of 5 regions; RAN market has bottomed
China gaining on U.S. in AI technology arms race- silicon, models and research
Intel FlexRAN™ gets boost from AT&T; faces competition from Marvel, Qualcomm, and EdgeQ for Open RAN silicon
Analysis: Nokia and Marvell partnership to develop 5G RAN silicon technology + other Nokia moves
Ericsson’s revenue drops, profits soar; deal with Vodafone and partnership with Export Development Canada look promising
Ericsson’s 3rd quarter 2025 results released today showed a 9% drop in revenues, to 56.2 billion Swedish kronor (US$5.9 billion), compared with the same period last year. Ericsson’s gross margin rose 2% to 47.6%. U.S. sales fell by as much as 17% year-over-year for the 3rd quarter, to about SEK22.5 billion ($2.4 billion), after an especially busy period in 2024. And the only region where Ericsson realized any growth was northeast Asia, and that was due to Japan’s new 5G rollout.
At Ericsson’s big mobile networks unit, sales fell 11% year-over-year, to SEK35.4 billion ($3.7 billion), while the decline on a constant-currency basis was just 4%. The division’s operating income also slid by 6%, to SEK7.1 billion ($740 million).
Sales were much better at the company’s cloud software and services group, responsible for the development of Ericsson’s core network software as well as its business and operational support systems. Reported sales rose 3%, to SEK15.3 billion ($1.6 billion), while Ericsson put the organic improvement at 9%. More importantly, it swung from an operating loss of SEK400 million ($42 million) a year earlier to a profit of SEK1.7 billion ($180 million).
Net income soared by an astonishing 191%, to SEK11.3 billion ($1.2 billion). That sharp increase in net income was due to Ericsson’s recent sale of iconectiv, a provider of number-portability and data-exchange services, to a private equity firm. The deal landed Ericsson a capital gain of SEK7.6 billion ($800 million) that flattered its profits at the operating income level. In Stockholm, Ericsson’s share price soared more than 14% in mid-morning trade, although it remained almost 2% below its level at the start of the year.
CEO Börje Ekholm said on today’s earnings call: “The margin expansion reflects actions we’ve taken over the last years to increase operational excellence and efficiency, including the work we’ve done on our cost base. Over the last year, we’ve reduced our headcount by some 6,000, leveraging new ways of working, and that of course includes AI.”
Since the end of 2022, the year Ericsson acquired VoIP software developer Vonage for $6.2 billion, headcount has fallen by more than 15,600, to just 89,898 at the end of June, the company revealed in its latest earnings report.
The Vonage business suffered a 17% drop in sales, to SEK3.2 billion ($330 million), and saw its loss widen by 50%, to SEK600 million ($63 million). It is where Ericsson believes it can monetize the network application programming interfaces (APIs) that will link software apps to networks and hopefully revitalize the 5G market. However, that’s not happening yet.
“The geopolitical situation has required us to shift resources a bit politically. As we went through that transition, we duplicated a large part of the R&D spend. We don’t need to have that anymore as we have relocated R&D,” said Ekholm. “We are not going to jeopardize technology leadership and if we feel there is any risk – and that is a risk I don’t see today – then we would of course need to reassess.”
After years of growth, R&D spending fell by 10% year-over-year for the first nine months of 2025, to SEK35.8 billion ($3.8 billion), prompting concern among analysts that Ericsson could lose competitiveness versus Chinese rivals.
AI is now being used to refine the algorithms that are fed into Ericsson’s software products, said Per Narvinger, the head of Ericsson’s mobile networks business group, on a call with Light Reading. No indication was given if that would reduce headcount any further.
Ericsson hopes the new 5G contract it announced with Vodafone earlier today will boost sales in Europe, where underinvestment in midband 5G coverage and the “standalone” variant of 5G have been constant bugbears for the company. After the rollout of “non-standalone” 5G, which maintains the 4G core, operators just continued to sell a “4G plus” service, Ekholm said.
“It was the established business model of most operators around the world, so it became very natural to take that step and then use 5G almost as a marketing icon on the phone, but, in reality, it didn’t give the extra capabilities,” he added. Standalone features such as low latency and network slicing will be critical in future apps, Ekholm correctly said, arguing that 6G will necessitate edge cloud and AI investments that have also not yet happened.
In summing up, Ericsson said “Increased uncertainty remains on the outlook, both in terms of potential for further tariff changes as well as in the broader macroeconomic environment.”
Looking ahead:
– Continue to invest in technology leadership to strengthen competitive position
– Future-proofed Open RAN-ready portfolio
– New use cases to monetize network investments taking shape
● AI applications becoming a key driver for network investments
● Structurally improving the business through rigorous cost management
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Separately,
Ericsson today announced the signing of a USD $3 billion partnership agreement with Export Development Canada (EDC) to expand investment in Canadian research and development, deepen domestic supply chains, and accelerate next-generation technologies including 5G, Cloud RAN, AI, and quantum innovation.
Börje Ekholm, President and CEO, Ericsson, says: “Canada is one of Ericsson’s most important hubs for global research and development, and this partnership with Export Development Canada will allow us to scale that leadership even further. By strengthening our collaboration with Canadian businesses, universities and government partners, we can accelerate breakthroughs in 5G, quantum, and Cloud RAN that will drive growth, create opportunities, and reinforce Canada’s position as a global leader in next generation networks.”
With more than 3,100 employees nationwide and R&D centres in Ottawa, Montreal, and Toronto, Ericsson Canada is at the heart of the company’s global innovation footprint. Canadian teams are driving advancements in 5G, 5G Advanced, and 6G, while also contributing to new research in quantum communications and AI-powered network management.
The three-year partnership will enable Ericsson to expand its Canadian-led innovation and global projects with the support of financial and insurance solutions from EDC. By reinforcing Ericsson’s Canadian supply chain and connecting the company with innovative domestic businesses, the agreement will also amplify Ericsson’s ability to bring Canadian technology to the world, strengthen competitiveness, and create new opportunities for Canadian companies within Ericsson’s global network of partners.
Across all wireless network equipment vendors, annual sales of RAN products fell from $45 billion in 2022 to $35 billion last year, according to Omdia, a Light Reading sister company. Market research firms Omdia and Dell’Oro have encouragingly guided for a more stable market this year.
Most wireless network providers have seen no incentive to spend more on 5G when their returns to date have been so disappointing. And there is skepticism about the business case for low latency services and network slicing. Telcos increasingly sell large bundles of gigabytes to their customers and have struggled to monetize other features.
References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/ericsson-says-world-is-flat-amid-us-gloom-and-keeps-cutting
https://www.ericsson.com/en/press-releases/6/2025/ericsson-edc-advance-canadas-technology-leadership
Ericsson integrates agentic AI into its NetCloud platform for self healing and autonomous 5G private networks
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Latest Ericsson Mobility Report talks up 5G SA networks and FWA
Ericsson and e& (UAE) sign MoU for 6G collaboration vs ITU-R IMT-2030 framework
Omdia on resurgence of Huawei: #1 RAN vendor in 3 out of 5 regions; RAN market has bottomed
Market research firm Omdia (owned by Informa) says Huawei remains the number one RAN vendor in three out of five large geographical regions. Far from being fatally weakened by U.S. government sanctions, Huawei today looks as big and strong as ever. Its sales last year were the second highest in its history and only 4% less than it made in 2020, before those sanctions took effect. In three out of the five global regions studied by Omdia – Asia and Oceania, the Middle East and Africa, and Latin America and the Caribbean – Huawei was the leading RAN vendor. While third in Europe, it was absent from the top three only in North America where it is banned.
Spain’s Telefónica remains a big Huawei customer in Brazil and Germany, despite telling Krach in 2020 that it would soon have “clean networks” in those markets. Deutsche Telekom and Vodafone, two other European telco giants, are also still heavy users of Huawei. Ericsson and Nokia have noted Europe’s inability to kick out Huawei while alerting investors to “aggressive” competition from Chinese vendors in some regions.
“A few years ago, we were all talking about high-risk vendors in Europe and I think, as it looks right now, that is not an opportunity,” said Börje Ekholm, Ericsson’s CEO, on a call with analysts last month. The substitution of the Nordic vendors for Huawei has not gone as far as they would have hoped. Ekholm warned analysts one year ago about “sharply increased competition from Chinese vendors in Europe and Latin America” and said there was a risk of losing contracts. “I am sure we’ll lose some, but we do it because it is right for the overall gross margin in the company. Don’t expect us to be the most aggressive in the market.”
There are few signs of European telcos replacing one of the Nordic vendors with Huawei, or of big market share losses by Ericsson and Nokia to Chinese rivals. Nokia’s RAN market share outside China did not materially change between the first and second quarters, says Remy Pascal, a principal analyst with Omdia (quarterly figures are not disclosed but Nokia held 17.6% of the RAN market including China last year). Huawei appears to have overtaken it because of gains at the expense of other vendors and a larger revenue contribution from Huawei-friendly emerging markets in the second quarter. Seasonality and the timing of revenue recognition were also factors, says Pascal.
Huawei is still highly regarded by chief technology officers for the quality of its products. It was a pioneer in the development of 5G equipment for time division duplex (TDD) technology, where uplink and downlink communications occupy the same frequency channel, and in massive MIMO, an antenna-rich system for boosting signal strength. It beat Ericsson and Nokia to the commercialization of power amplifiers based on gallium nitride, an efficient alternative to silicon, according to Earl Lum, the founder of EJL Wireless Research.
Sanctions have not held back Huawei’s technology as much as analysts had expected. While the company was cut off from the foundries capable of manufacturing the most advanced silicon, it managed to obtain good-enough 7-nanometer chips in China for its latest smartphones, spurring its resurgence in that market. Network products remain less dependent on access to cutting-edge chips, and sales in that sector do not appear to have suffered outside markets that have imposed restrictions.
Alternatives to Huawei’s dominance have not materialized in a RAN sector that was already short of options. Besides evicting Huawei from telco networks, U.S. authorities hoped “Open RAN” would give rise to American developers of RAN products. That has failed badly.
- Mavenir, arguably the best Open RAN hope the U.S. had, became emblematic of the Open RAN market gloom after it recently withdrew from the market for radio units as part of a debt restructuring. The company has sold its Open RAN software to DISH Network and Vodafone, it has not achieved the market penetration it initially targeted. Mavenir has faced significant financial challenges that led to a restructuring in 2025, significant layoffs and a major shift in strategy away from developing its own hardware.
- Parallel Wireless makes Open RAN software and also provides Open RAN software-defined radios (SDRs) as part of its hardware ecosystem, focusing on disaggregating the radio access network stack to allow operators flexibility and reduced total cost of ownership. Their offerings include a hardware-agnostic 5G Standalone (SA) software stack and the Open RAN Aggregator software, which manages and converges multi-vendor RAN interfaces toward the core network.
Stefan Pongratz of Dell’Oro Group forecasts annual revenues from multi-vendor RAN deployments – where telcos combine vendors instead of buying from a single big supplier – will have reached an upper limit of $3 billion by 2029, giving multi-vendor RAN less than 10% of the total RAN market by that date. He says five of six tracked regions are now classed as “highly concentrated,” with an Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score of more than 2,500. “This suggests that the supplier diversity element of the open RAN vision is fading,” Stefan added.
Preliminary data from Dell’Oro indicate that Open RAN revenues grew year-over-year (Y/Y) in 2Q25 and were nearly flat Y/Y in the first half, supported by easier comparisons, stronger capex tied to existing Open RAN deployments, and increased activity among early majority adopters.
Open RAN used to mean alternatives to Ericsson and Nokia. Today, it looks synonymous with the top 5 RAN vendors (Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung). In such an environment of extreme market concentration and failed U.S. sanctions, the appeal of Huawei’s RAN technology is still very much intact.
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Omdia’s historical data shows that RAN sales fell by $5 billion, to $40 billion, in 2023, and by the same amount again last year. In 2025, it is guiding for low single-digit percentage growth outside China, implying the RAN market has bottomed out. This stabilization suggests the market may be transitioning into a phase of flat-to-modest growth, though risks such as operator capex constraints and uneven regional demand remain. However, concentration of RAN vendors
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References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/huawei-overtakes-nokia-outside-china-as-open-ran-stabilizes-
Omdia: Huawei increases global RAN market share due to China hegemony
Malaysia’s U Mobile signs MoU’s with Huawei and ZTE for 5G network rollout
Dell’Oro Group: RAN Market Grows Outside of China in 2Q 2025
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Dell’Oro Group: RAN Market Grows Outside of China in 2Q 2025
Following two years of steep declines, initial estimates by Dell’Oro Group reveal that total RAN revenues—including baseband, radio hardware, and software, excluding services—advanced for a third consecutive quarter outside of China in 2Q 2025.
“Our initial assessment confirms that the narrative we’ve been discussing for some time is now coming to fruition. Market conditions have continued to stabilize, resulting in growth for three consecutive quarters outside of China,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN market research at the Dell’Oro Group. “However, broader market sentiment remains subdued, and a rapid rebound is not anticipated. The industry acknowledges that short-term fluctuations are unlikely to alter the market’s generally flat long-term trajectory,” Pongratz added.
Additional highlights from the 2Q 2025 RAN report:
- Growth in Europe, as well as the Middle East and Africa, nearly offset declines in the Caribbean and Latin America, as well as the Asia Pacific region.
- RAN vendor dynamics are gradually shifting, driven by three major trends: the strong are getting stronger, laggards are not improving, and the market is becoming increasingly divided.
- Ericsson and Huawei together accounted for more than 60 percent of the 1H25 market in North America and China, respectively.
- The top 5 RAN suppliers, based on worldwide revenues for the trailing four quarters, are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
- The short-term outlook remains unchanged, with total RAN expected to stabilize in 2025.
For sure, RAN is not a growth market (+1% CAGR between 2000 and 2023). However, underneath that flattish topline over time, RAN revenues fluctuate significantly as new spectrum/technologies become available. After a massive RAN surge between 2017 and 2021, RAN revenues declined sharply in 2023 and the fundamental question now is fairly straightforward – how will the slowdown in mobile data traffic impact the RAN market over the next five years? The constantly changing and increasingly demanding end-user expectations in combination with the search for growth present opportunities and challenges for incumbent RAN suppliers and new entrants.
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Huawei’s ability to sustain growth during a period of industry volatility can be attributed to several key factors:
- Strong Presence in China: Huawei maintains a commanding position in its home market, which remains one of the largest and most competitive globally. Despite external pressures and restrictions, its domestic strength provides stability and scale.
- Expanding Global Footprint: Growth in regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Africa helped Huawei offset weaker performance in Asia Pacific, the Caribbean, and Latin America. These markets have been central to Huawei’s strategy of diversifying its global presence.
- Technological Advancements in 5G: Huawei has continued to invest heavily in 5G RAN innovation, leveraging advanced radio hardware, AI-driven network optimization, and energy-efficient base stations. These capabilities strengthen its competitive edge in delivering cost-effective and high-performance solutions.
- Resilient Business Strategy: Despite global challenges, including regulatory restrictions in certain markets, Huawei has adapted by strengthening local partnerships, investing in regional ecosystems, and optimizing supply chain resilience.
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According to the recent Omdia report, Ericsson is the top RAN vendor in both business performance and portfolio strength in 2025, thanks in part to its energy-efficient products, comprehensive support across radio technologies, and Open RAN–ready offerings.
Ericsson also continues expanding its enterprise solutions, with integrated strategies that include private 5G, Cradlepoint, and cloud-native cores. In India, Ericsson signed a multi-billion-dollar 4G/5G equipment deal with Bharti Airtel to enhance network coverage using Open RAN-ready solutions.
Nokia is actively replacing Huawei in key European deployments—securing a major Open RAN contract to supply Deutsche Telekom across 3,000 German sites. In the U.S., Nokia signed a multi-year deal with AT&T to provide cloud-based voice core and 5G network automation solutions powered by AI/ML. Nokia is gaining ground in Europe and the U.S. through modernization and automation contracts. Samsung is leveraging Open RAN partnerships for a comeback, and overall vendor competition is shaped by technology shifts toward cloud-native, AI-enabled, and multi-vendor architectures.
Samsung is stepping up in the Open RAN ecosystem — as illustrated by a successful joint demonstration between Samsung, Vodafone, and AMD showcasing a full Open RAN voice call using AMD processors and Samsung’s O-RAN vRAN software. Despite its RAN equipment revenues falling 25% in 2024, Samsung remains well positioned in Europe and Africa, particularly in Vodafone tenders for replacing Huawei, which may drive recovery through expanded vRAN/Open RAN adoption.
In summary, the global RAN market is stabilizing after a steep downturn in 2024. Huawei holds steady in core markets like China and parts of Europe, while Ericsson leads globally on portfolio strength and new deals — particularly Open RAN and enterprise solutions.
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References:
RAN Market Grows Outside of China, According to Dell’Oro Group
https://telecomlead.com/telecom-equipment/huawei-achieves-growth-in-global-ran-market-amid-industry-stabilization-122275
https://www.ericsson.com/en/ran/omdia-2025
Dell’Oro: AI RAN to account for 1/3 of RAN market by 2029; AI RAN Alliance membership increases but few telcos have joined
Dell’Oro: RAN revenue growth in 1Q2025; AI RAN is a conundrum
Omdia: Huawei increases global RAN market share due to China hegemony
Network equipment vendors increase R&D; shift focus as 0% RAN market growth forecast for next 5 years!
vRAN market disappoints – just like OpenRAN and mobile 5G
Mobile Experts: Open RAN market drops 83% in 2024 as legacy carriers prefer single vendor solutions
Dell’Oro: Global RAN Market to Drop 21% between 2021 and 2029
Omdia: Huawei increases global RAN market share due to China hegemony
Due to China’s enormous mobile network market (where foreign vendors are mostly shut out), Huawei remained the world’s largest vendor of radio access network (RAN) equipment – a market worth about $35 billion last year – according to Omdia (an Informa owned company). In 2023, the Chinese behemoth had a 31.3% share of the global RAN market. Omdia says Huawei’s market share was up by an unspecified amount in 2024, due to “a more favorable regional mix as well as market share gains in emerging markets,” according to Remy Pascal, principal analyst at Omdia.
Huawei recently reported a 22% increase in sales last year, to 860 billion Chinese yuan (US$ 118.6 billion), and it looks in better shape than its ailing western rivals. Its share of the global 5G networks market appears to have grown, according to the market research firm.
Omdia’s findings seems further to highlight the futility of U.S. sanctions against Huawei, originally imposed by Donald Trump in his first term as U.S. President and then expanded by President Joe Biden.
Image Credit: Huawei
China still lacks the ability to make the most advanced chips featuring the tiniest transistors. But technical workarounds or loopholes in trade rules have enabled Huawei to revive its smartphone business and remain competitive in networks. Late last year, telco executives who spoke on condition of anonymity said there had been no discernible impact on the quality of its products. And Ericsson continues to regard Huawei as its chief rival.
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“After two years of significant acceleration and exceptionally high investment in 2021 and 2022, and two years of steep decline in 2023 and 2024, Omdia expects 2025 to be a year of stabilization for the RAN market,” said Remy Pascal of Omdia. “Different regions will follow different trajectories, but at a global level, the market is expected to be flattish. North America has returned to growth in 2024 and we expect this to continue, we also expect a positive trajectory in some emerging markets.”
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Other results and forecasts from Omdia:
- The total global RAN market (which includes hardware and software but not services) was just over $35 billion last year, which represented a 12 percent decline on the previous year.
- There was a very slight drop in the aggregate market share of the top five RAN equipment vendors – Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung. In 2023, Omdia had that figure at about 95%. In 2024, it was roughly 94%.
- Ericsson was one of the main gainers last year thanks to its huge AT&T (non) OpenRAN contract.
- As a result, Nokia lost market share in the U.S., but claims that its global RAN footprint grew by 18,000 sites in 2024.
- Tejas Networks, an Indian RAN equipment vendor (not in the top five) that landed a large 4G contract with state-owned BSNL was another winner.
- Global RAN revenue will be “essentially flat” this year and marked by “low single digit percentage growth” outside China.
- A “positive trajectory” in emerging Asian markets as well as Africa, the Middle East and Latin America is forecast. Europe risks falling behind other parts of the world in mobile network markets.
Top RAN vendors, full year 2024 RAN revenue:
|
Global |
Global ex-China |
|---|---|
|
Huawei |
Ericsson |
|
Ericsson |
Nokia |
|
Nokia |
Huawei |
|
ZTE |
Samsung |
|
Samsung |
ZTE |
Top RAN vendors, full year 2024 RAN revenue, top 3 by region:
|
North America |
Asia & Oceania |
Europe |
Middle East and Africa |
Latin America & the Caribbean |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Ericsson |
Huawei |
Ericsson |
Huawei |
Huawei |
|
Nokia |
ZTE |
Nokia |
Nokia |
Ericsson |
|
Samsung |
Ericsson |
Huawei |
Ericsson |
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Dell’Oro Group’s most recent RAN report a few weeks ago stated that the global RAN market is expected to improve slightly over the short term, but the long-term outlook remains subdued. “The underlying message we have communicated for some time has not changed,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at Dell’Oro Group. “Regional imbalances will impact the market dynamics over the short term while the long-term trajectory remains flat. This is predicated on the assumption that new RAN revenue streams from private wireless and FWA, taken together with MBB-based capacity growth, are not enough to offset slower MBB coverage-based capex,” said Dell’Oro’s Stefan Pongratz.
References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/huawei-defies-us-to-grow-market-share-as-ran-decline-ends-omdia
RAN Equipment Market to Remain Uninspiring, According to Dell’Oro Group
Network equipment vendors increase R&D; shift focus as 0% RAN market growth forecast for next 5 years!
Telco spending on RAN infrastructure continues to decline as does mobile traffic growth
vRAN market disappoints – just like OpenRAN and mobile 5G
Mobile Experts: Open RAN market drops 83% in 2024 as legacy carriers prefer single vendor solutions
Network equipment vendors increase R&D; shift focus as 0% RAN market growth forecast for next 5 years!
In 2024, Ericsson’s R&D spending was SEK53.5 billion ($4.8 billion). “It is our firm commitment to really ensure that we have capacity to do the investments in R&D over time,” said Lars Sandström, Ericsson’s chief financial officer. “I think that has been the guiding star for the company for quite some years and I think, if you go long back into history, we felt that has been hurting our ability to invest when not having the right cash position.” Meanwhile, Nokia’s R&D spending rose 5% on the year, to about €4.5 billion ($4.6 billion).
Combined, that was only one-third of Huawei’s projected 2024 R&D spending of around 197.8 billion yuan or $27.3 billion which was ~20% higher than 2023. Huawei’s R&D spending has increased in recent years, from 102 billion yuan in 2018 to 164.7 billion yuan in 2023. It invests more than 10% of its sales revenue into R&D each year. In addition to telecom and IT equipment/software, Huawei is a leader in China’s efforts to develop advanced chips and technology. The company is involved in a government-funded project to develop memory units for AI chips.
Mobile network market shrinkage has not helped ROI in wireless network R&D projects. Overall RAN sales fell 11% in 2023, to about $40 billion, said researchers at Informa owned Omdia. At the midpoint of its most recently published data, Omdia was anticipating another contraction of 15% in 2024 to ~$35 billion.
Stefan Pongratz of Dell’Oro said that mobile infrastructure investments slowed significantly in 2024. Preliminary findings indicate that the Radio Access Network (RAN) market contracted by 10 to 20% year-over-year (YoY) during the 1Q24 to 3Q24 period (final 4Q24 and full-year data expected around mid-February). Network operators in many countries paused spending after their initial 5G rollouts did not lead to meaningful improvements in sales or profitability.
Following the intense 5G acceleration phase from 2017 to 2022, RAN investments declined sharply in 2023 and 2024, with the exception of India where RAN market growth is now tapering off.
While data for 2024 is unavailable, the top five vendors – Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung – served ~95.1% of the global RAN market in 2023, according to Omdia. That doesn’t leave much room for start-up or other RAN equipment makers (like Fujitsu, NEC, Datang Mobile, Mavenir, CICT Mobile, Comba, and other small players).
“The underlying message we have communicated for some time has not changed,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President for RAN market research at Dell’Oro Group. “Regional imbalances will impact the market dynamics over the short term while the long-term trajectory remains flat. This is predicated on the assumption that new RAN revenue streams from private wireless and FWA, taken together with MBB-based capacity growth, are not enough to offset slower MBB coverage-based capex,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from Del’Oro’s Mobile RAN 5-Year January 2025 Forecast Report:
- Worldwide RAN revenues are projected to grow at a 0% CAGR over the next five years, as rapidly declining LTE revenues will offset continued 5G investments.
- Medium-term risks to the baseline are balanced, while the long-term risks are tilted to the downside and characterized by the data growth uncertainty with the existing MBB use case. As the investment focus gradually shifts from coverage to capacity, one of the most significant forecast risks is slowing mobile data traffic growth. Given current network utilization levels and data traffic trends in more advanced markets, there are serious concerns about the timing of capacity upgrades.
- The mix between existing and new use cases has not changed. Private/enterprise RAN is expected to grow at a 20 percent plus CAGR while public RAN investments decline. At the same time, because of the lower starting point, it will take some time for private RAN to move the broader RAN needle.
- 5G-Advanced positions remain unchanged. The technology will play an essential role in the broader 5G journey. However, 5G-Advanced is not expected to fuel another major capex cycle. Instead, operators will gradually transition their spending from 5G towards 5G-Advanced within their confined capex budgets.
- RAN segments that are expected to grow over the next five years include 5G NR, FWA, mmWave, Open RAN, vRAN, private wireless, and small cells.
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So how do incumbent RAN vendors cope? Ericsson is becoming more heavily reliant on software sales. CEO Börje Ekholm told analysts on the company’s last earnings call: “It is going to take some time for customers to realize we are increasingly becoming a software business. If you go back 15 years, we were much more hardware-centric, and then it was a bigger question for customers. As you move into becoming a software vendor, the working capital becomes less and less and less.”
Nokia is turning to data center connectivity for growth. CEO Pekka Lundmark declared that data centers are now the company’s top growth target, shifting away from its traditional focus on telecommunications networks and services. Nokia is developing and promoting data center switching platforms, IP networking solutions, and automation technologies to cater to the needs of hyperscalers and enterprise customers. The company has secured notable contracts with companies like CoreWeave, a leading AI hyperscaler, which demonstrates their growing presence in the data center space. It’s also in the process of acquiring fiber optic equipment company Infinera which will enhance both inter and intra- data center connect capabilities. Nokia is emphasizing open-source software like SONiC alongside its own SR Linux operating system to provide flexibility and cater to diverse customer requirements.
References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/ericsson-and-nokia-flaunt-cash-as-open-ran-pack-struggles
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