IDC forecasts that worldwide revenue for enterprise applications will grow from $279.6 billion in 2022 to $385.2 billion in 2026 with a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.0%. Nearly all this growth will come from investments in public cloud software, which is expected to represent nearly two thirds of all enterprise applications revenue in 2026.
While the process of migrating from on-premises applications to the cloud can take years, enterprise software vendors and their customers will continue the transition to the cloud as this is an essential part of business operations in the digital world. Companies that do not pursue this technology will sustain losses due to profound opportunity costs as their competitors adopt cloud technologies and the use of application programming interfaces (APIs), moving beyond the reach of technological holdouts with on-premises or homemade solutions.
“It’s no longer enough for businesses to sit back and rely on their technological debt of software and hardware assets to keep the company running. In the digital world, enterprise software needs to constantly innovate to keep up with demand for speed, scale, and a resilient business,” said Heather Hershey, research director, Worldwide Digital Commerce at IDC. “Organizations must invest in new tools to keep their application portfolio up to date as they move into the digital era, automating all processes while also leveraging innovation and a wealth of data to become a more creative and resilient company in the digital realm.”
In addition to the ongoing cloud migration, IDC has identified a number of other significant market developments that are driving growth in the enterprise applications market.
SaaS and cloud-based, modular, and intelligent applications are no longer “nice to have” but are instead essential for business. Organizations that want to stay in business need AI-driven software that is cloud enabled, modular, and intelligent.
Application programmable interface technology will continue to be the backbone of the enterprise applications market. APIs will always resonate as a sound investment to companies that understand the pivotal role they play in connecting all the disparate code bases that make up the modern world.
Phasic migration to cloud with TaskApps augmentation will continue, particularly in B2B enterprises. TaskApps and low-code/no-code development tools are being used to close gaps, extend processes, or change up the business at a faster pace throughout the transition to digital first.
New global regulations around data privacy and ethics have changed the way organizations collect and use data, pushing governance to the forefront of the conversation. Compliance has become a differentiating factor for enterprises that prioritize trustworthiness.
“The digital world is completely altering the way software is utilized and incorporated into the organization from modularity to APIs to low code/no code to business process automation to TaskApps and even with innovation,” said Mickey North Rizza, group vice president, Enterprise Software at IDC. “Organizations are stretching their visions from filling technology gaps to optimizing processes globally to going the last mile with complete differentiators for their clients. The business world is finally starting to leverage the opportunity technology brings to it.”
Photo Credit: Unsplash
The enterprise applications market is a competitive market that includes software specific to certain industries as well as software that can handle requirements for multiple industries. Enterprise applications can be delivered as a pre-integrated suite of applications (featuring common data and process models across functional areas) or as standalone applications that automate specific functional business processes, such as accounting, human capital management, or supply chain execution. The enterprise applications market consists of the following secondary markets: enterprise resource management, customer relationship management, engineering applications, supply chain management applications, and production applications.
The IDC report, Worldwide Enterprise Applications Software Forecast, 2022–2026: Digital Era Software on the Rise (Doc #US48563522), presents a five-year forecast for worldwide enterprise applications revenues, including spending by geographic region and deployment type (public cloud and on premises). The report also provides insight into the market’s evolution through 2026, including deployment models, trends, and significant market developments.
In a separate report titled Worldwide Quarterly Enterprise Infrastructure Tracker: Buyer and Cloud Deployment, IDC sas that spending on compute and storage infrastructure products for cloud deployments, including dedicated and shared IT environments, increased 24.7% year over year in the third quarter of 2022 (3Q22) to $23.9 billion. Spending on cloud infrastructure continues to outgrow the non-cloud segment although the latter had strong growth in 3Q22 as well, increasing at 16.5% year over year to $16.8 billion. The market continues to benefit from high demand and large backlogs, coupled with an improving infrastructure supply chain.
Spending on shared cloud infrastructure reached $16.8 billion in the quarter, increasing 24.4% compared to a year ago. IDC expects to see continuous strong demand for shared cloud infrastructure with spending expected to surpass non-cloud infrastructure spending in 2023. The dedicated cloud infrastructure segment grew 25.3% year over year in 3Q22 to $7.1 billion. Of the total dedicated cloud infrastructure, 45.2% was deployed on customer premises.
For the full year 2022, IDC is forecasting cloud infrastructure spending to grow 19.6% year over year to $88.1 billion – a noticeable increase from 8.6% annual growth in 2021. Non-cloud infrastructure is expected to grow 10.7% to $64.7 billion. Shared cloud infrastructure is expected to grow 19.0% year over year to $60.9 billion for the full year while spending on dedicated cloud infrastructure is expected to grow 21.2% to $27.3 billion for the full year.
About IDC:
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC’s analysis and insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world’s leading tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and insights.
ATIS today announced it has executed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the O-RAN ALLIANCE to further both organizations’ mutual objectives to advance the industry towards more intelligent, open, virtualized and global standards-compliant mobile networks.
The MoU notes that ATIS and the O-RAN ALLIANCE will collaborate on advancing the state-of-the-art of open radio access network, including Open RAN security and stakeholder requirements for Open RAN. It also addresses the opportunity for ATIS translation of O-RAN ALLIANCE specifications to Open RAN standards to advance the adoption of Open RAN in North America.
“This agreement with the O-RAN ALLIANCE brings the power of ATIS’ 3GPP leadership and its contributions to the continued evolution of 5G, coupled with ATIS’ leadership for 6G and beyond as part of its Next G Alliance, to advance the development of open RAN technologies,” said ATIS President and CEO Susan Miller. “The MoU combines the forces of ATIS and the O-RAN ALLIANCE to connect the present to the future for the open RAN ecosystem, advancing the promise of a robust open RAN marketplace.”
“Continuing the work toward open radio access networks is critical in unlocking the full potential of 5G in North America and will lay the foundation for future generations of wireless technology,” said Igal Elbaz, Chair of ATIS Board of Directors and Network CTO of AT&T. “ATIS and the O-RAN ALLIANCE combining their expertise and resources and ATIS’ adoption of O-RAN specifications to ATIS Open RAN standards will help accelerate the industry’s implementation of open RAN.”
The MoU also addresses participation, by invitation, in meetings of each other’s working groups where appropriate, and promoting and endorsing each other’s events (e.g., conferences and plugfests) or activities (e.g., publication of work results) in areas of mutual interest and with prior consent of the other party.
ATIS’ board is composed of top executives from AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile, Ciena and Comcast. It’s the group that has previously addressed topics including secure supply chain, robocalls and hearing aid compatibility for cellphones. And it’s also the association behind the new Next G Alliance, which is working to organize a comprehensive U.S. strategy around future 6G technologies.
Also note that ATIS represents 3GPP in ITU-R WP 5D and presents all their IMT contributions on 5G/IMT 2020/ITU-R M.2150. If 3GPP ever includes Open RAN in its specifications, it’s very likely that those will be presented by ATIS to ITU-R for 5G or even 4G LTE.
“Standards-based open RAN will help create a more receptive marketplace for open RAN technology, advance its development and drive adoption in North America,” added ATIS’ VP of technology and solutions, Mike Nawrocki, in a statement to Light Reading.
In the U.S., Dish Network is in the midst of building a nationwide 5G network that adheres to Open RAN specifications. However, it’s unclear whether Dish will be able to profit from its embrace of open RAN. AT&T has told this author they are interested in deploying Open RAN for 5G if it is more economical than legacy RANs. Neither Verizon or T-Mobile has expressed interest in Open RAN.
As a leading technology and solutions development organization, the Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (ATIS) brings together the top global ICT companies to advance the industry’s business priorities. Our Next G Alliance is building the foundation for North American leadership in 6G and beyond. ATIS’ 160 member companies are also currently working to address 5G, illegal robocall mitigation, quantum computing, artificial intelligence-enabled networks, distributed ledger/blockchain technology, cybersecurity, IoT, emergency services, quality of service, billing support, operations and much more. These priorities follow a fast-track development lifecycle from design and innovation through standards, specifications, requirements, business use cases, software toolkits, open-source solutions and interoperability testing.
ATIS is accredited by the American National Standards Institute (ANSI). The organization is the North American Organizational Partner for the 3rd Generation Partnership Project (3GPP), a founding partner of the oneM2M global initiative, a member of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) and a member of the InterAmerican Telecommunication Commission (CITEL). For more information, visit www.atis.org. Follow ATIS on Twitter and on LinkedIn.
About O-RAN ALLIANCE:
The O-RAN ALLIANCE is a world-wide community of more than 300 mobile operators, vendors, and research & academic institutions operating in the Radio Access Network (RAN) industry. As the RAN is an essential part of any mobile network, the O-RAN ALLIANCE’s mission is to re-shape the industry towards more intelligent, open, virtualized and fully interoperable mobile networks. The new O-RAN specifications enable a more competitive and vibrant RAN supplier ecosystem with faster innovation to improve user experience. O-RAN based mobile networks at the same time improve the efficiency of RAN deployments as well as operations by the mobile operators. To achieve this, the O-RAN ALLIANCE publishes new RAN specifications, releases open software for the RAN, and supports its members in integration and testing of their implementations.
China will debut the world’s first cruise ship covered by a5G network later this year, due to a collaboration between CSSC Carnival Cruise Shipping Ltd’s own cruise brand Adora Cruises and China Telecom Corp Ltd Shanghai Branch. Adora Cruises [1.] has partnered with Shanghai Telecom, a major 5G network service provider in China, to bring 5G connectivity to its first China-built large cruise ship. This partnership marks a major milestone, as it is the first time a 5G network has been installed on a cruise ship in the world and sets a new standard for connectivity and convenience, according to a press release on Thursday.
Note 1.Adora Cruises is part of CSSC Carnival Cruise Shipping Limited, a joint venture between shipbuilder China State Shipbuilding Corp (CSSC) and U.S.-based leisure travel company Carnival Corporation.
“From network layout, satellite communication, to various digital applications, our goal is to deliver seamless multimedia interactions and consistent mobile connectivity for guests and crew, allowing them to stay connected with loved ones and the world while at sea,” said Chen Ranfeng, Managing Director of CSSC Carnival Cruise Shipping Limited. “By seizing a first-mover advantage in the cruise industry’s 5G market, we hope to set a new standard for digital communication in the marine travel sector.”
Adora Cruises is working towards a future where guests can enjoy an enhanced cruise experience with 5G connectivity and access to all-around multimedia and real-time interaction, the company said.
Image Courtesy of CSSC Carnival Cruise Company
“Combining 5G and satellite technology, we will focus on network communication, digital high-definition, AR/VR and other content services to further improve our guest experience and jointly promote high-quality development of the tourism economy,” said Gong Bo, general manager of Shanghai Telecom. “By seizing a first-mover advantage in the cruise industry’s 5G market, we hope to set a new standard for digital communication in the marine travel sector,” said Ranfeng.
The cruise company’s first two China-built large cruise ships are currently under construction at Shanghai Waigaoqiao Shipbuilding Corp, and will be operated under the brand name of Adora in the future.
The first 135,500-gross-ton Adora cruise ship is expected to start its journey by the end of 2023, while the second vessel is currently still being designed and constructed.
by Geoff Burke, DZS Inc. (a global provider of access networking infrastructure, service assurance and consumer experience software solutions). Edited by Alan J Weissberger
There are a handful of significant trends that will emerge over the next several months as service providers navigate their transformation and seek to find their Competitive EDGE. This post will focus on the increasing shift to multi-gigabit services, the growing importance of the network edge and how service providers are being transformed into “experience providers..
Multi-Gigabit Broadband Services are Becoming the New Standard – The shift to gigabit services was both widespread and well suited for Gigabit Passive Optical Networking (GPON) However, new advanced applications will require symmetrical multi-gigabit speeds. The proliferation of multiple devices using these bandwidth-hungry apps is pushing service providers to begin to think 10 gig services and beyond for both business and residential services. The emergence of the metaverse, with Ultra High Definition (UHD) Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality/Extended Reality (AR/VR/XR) and gaming applications will continue push these boundaries.
The Network Edge Continues to Rise as a Strategic Location – The rise of 10 Gigabit Symmetrical (XGS)-PON and multi-gigabit services that support the above mentioned applications and more is creating new challenges in the network – especially as these apps require symmetrical bandwidth. Service providers realize that they must push equipment as close to the subscriber as possible to optimize traffic management, but also to minimize latency, which is becoming increasingly important in the world of the metaverse and AR/VR/XR apps. Additionally, leveraging intelligence at the edge moves it closer to where data is actually created and consumed and where the subscriber experience is defined giving service providers increased agility in monitoring, managing and optimizing performance.
Service Providers are Rapidly Transforming into Experience Providers – As the network becomes increasingly software defined and intelligent equipment is deployed closer to the edge, the ability for carriers to both gather meaningful information that can reflect and provide actionable insights into user experience grows dramatically. As a result, the concept of a true “experience provider” is emerging where subscriber problems can be anticipated and proactively addressed, and user needs can be addressed remotely and immediately in an extraordinarily personalized manner. This transformation is proving to have profound impacts on carrier performance, with dramatically reduced churn, faster responsiveness, better performance, and higher Average Revenue Per User (ARPU).
India’s Tech Mahindra and Microsoft have announced a collaboration to enable cloud-powered 5G SA core network for telecom operators worldwide. As a part of the collaboration, Tech Mahindra will provide its expertise, comprehensive solutions, and managed services offerings to telecom operators for their 5G SA Core networks. Tech Mahindra will provide its expertise like “Network Cloudification as a Service” and AIOps to global telecom operators for their 5G Core networks. AIOps will help operators combine big data and machine learning to automate network operations processes, including anomaly detection, predicting fault and performance issues.
CP Gurnani, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Tech Mahindra said, “Today, it is critical to leverage next-gen technologies to build relevant and resilient services and solutions for customers across the globe. At Tech Mahindra, we are well-positioned to help telecom operators realize the full potential of their networks and provide innovative and agile services to their customers while also helping them meet their ESG commitments. Our collaboration with Microsoft will further strengthen our service portfolio by combining our deep expertise across the telecom industry with Microsoft Cloud. Further to this collaboration, Tech Mahindra and Microsoft will work together to help telecom operators simplify and transform their operations in order to build green and secure networks by leveraging the power of cloud technologies. At Tech Mahindra, we are well-positioned to help telecom operators realize the full potential of their networks and provide innovative and agile services to their customers while also helping them meet their ESG commitments.”
Tech Mahindra believes the 5G core network will enable use cases such as Augmented Reality (AR), Virtual Reality (VR), IoT (Internet of Things, and edge computing. Of course, 5G URLLC performance requirements, especially ultra low latency, in the RAN and core network must be met first, which they are not at this time. The company will leverage the Microsoft Azure cloud for its sustainability solution iSustain to measure and monitor KPIs across all three aspects of E, S & G. iSustain will help operators address the challenge of measuring and reducing carbon emissions from the networks while meeting demands of the countless energy intense digital technologies, from AR/ VR to IoT.
Anant Maheshwari, President, Microsoft India said, “Harnessing the power of Microsoft Azure, telecom operators can provide more flexibility and scalability, save infrastructure cost, use AI to automate operations, and differentiate their customer offerings. The collaboration between Tech Mahindra and Microsoft will help our customers build green and secured networks with seamless experiences across the Microsoft cloud and the operator’s network. Azure provides operators with cloud solutions that enable them to create new revenue generating services and move existing services to the cloud. Through our collaboration with Tech Mahindra, Microsoft will further help telcos overcome challenges, drive innovation and build green and secured networks that provide seamless experiences by leveraging the power of Microsoft Cloud for Operators.”
The partnership is in line with Tech Mahindra’s NXT.NOWTM framework, which aims to enhance the ‘Human Centric Experience’, Tech Mahindra focuses on investing in emerging technologies and solutions that enable digital transformation and meet the evolving needs of the customer.
About Tech Mahindra:
Tech Mahindra offers innovative and customer-centric digital experiences, enabling enterprises, associates and the society to Rise. We are a USD 6 billion organization with 163,000+ professionals across 90 countries helping 1279 global customers, including Fortune 500 companies. We are focused on leveraging next-generation technologies including 5G, Blockchain, Metaverse, Quantum Computing, Cybersecurity, Artificial Intelligence, and more, to enable end-to-end digital transformation for global customers. Tech Mahindra is the only Indian company in the world to receive the HRH The Prince of Wales’ Terra Carta Seal for its commitment to creating a sustainable future. We are the fastest growing brand in ‘brand strength’ and amongst the top 7 IT brands globally. With the NXT.NOWTM framework, Tech Mahindra aims to enhance ‘Human Centric Experience’ for our ecosystem and drive collaborative disruption with synergies arising from a robust portfolio of companies. Tech Mahindra aims at delivering tomorrow’s experiences today and believes that the ‘Future is Now.’
“It’s Not Just You: 5G Is a Big Letdown,” is the title of a Wall Street Journal on-line article published today (January 11, 2023). Author Joanna Stern writes:
I turned off Verizon’s red down pointing triangle 5G on my iPhone—and barely noticed a difference. The 4G LTE performance and coverage felt just about the same.
Three years since the U.S. cellular carriers lit up their next-generation networks and promised to change the game, the game hasn’t changed. And if you’re among the millions of Americans who recently upgraded, you probably already know that. In 2022, 61% of U.S. cellular customers accessed 5G networks, according to Global Wireless Solutions, a network testing and research company.
On Verizon’s Ultra Wideband network, I got 500 Mbps down. But I didn’t notice a difference when streaming Netflix, watching TikTok, loading websites or sending messages. You don’t need a fire hose to extinguish a candle.
Where you might see a difference is during commuting hours and other times of heavy congestion, Chetan Sharma, a telecom-industry analyst, told me. A Verizon spokesman said that 5G’s higher data capacity helps at concerts, sporting events and other crowded areas where everyone is trying to download or upload photos or videos.
“As cars, smart home standards, and so many screens took center stage at this year’s [CES] show, 5G took a back seat,” concludes a Verge article titled, “Where was 5G at CES?” “After years of hype, 5G was seemingly a no-show at CES 2023.” The Verge article continues knocking 5G (and for good reason):
For starters, we’re all sick of hearing about it. And CES has a unique way of rallying around a technology one year and then leaving it for dead the next.
And there was always a time limit on 5G’s newsworthiness — at a certain point, when it becomes the prevailing wireless technology, it’s not going to be “5G the new thing;” it’ll just be “the internet you use when you’re not on Wi-Fi.”
More than any of the above, the time has passed where wireless CEOs feel they need to sell 5G to the general public (and, of course, their shareholders). It’s not a niche new service anymore; it’s the default option (in the U.S. at least). Basically every new phone sold on their shelves is 5G compatible, and mid-band 5G finally exists on all major carriers in large parts of the US. The next time you walk into a wireless store to buy a new phone or sign up for a new service, you’ll have a very hard time leaving without a 5G device and plan, regardless of whether you really wanted them.
So now we have 5G phones in our hands, 5G networks are here, and… not much has changed. Maybe web pages load a little faster — hardly robot surgery. What gives? The thing is, rolling out 5G is a long ongoing process. The hype made it seem like all the good stuff was just around the corner, but truthfully, it was (and still is) years and years away.
So yes, you may have a 5G icon on your phone, but the most transformative aspects of 5G are supposedly still in the works. That’s a tough message to sell in a flashy keynote, especially when everyone in the room has access to the technology you’re talking about.
The IEEE Techblog in general, and this author in particular, have been pounding the table for years that 5G would be a colossal tech train wreck for these reasons:
1. 3GPP Release 16 URLLC in the RAN spec and performance testing have not been completed. Hence the URLLC in 3GPP Release 15 and ITU M.2150 recommendation do not meet the critically important URLLC ITU M.2410 performance requirements for ultra high reliability or ultra low latency. Here is the latest status of URLLC in the RAN in the 3GPP Release 16 specification as of 6 January 2023:
–Physical Layer Enhancements for NR Ultra-Reliable and Low Latency Communication (URLLC) NR_L1enh_URLLC 1 Rel-16 R1 6/15/2018 12/22/2022 96% complete RP-19158
–UE Conformance Test Aspects – Physical Layer Enhancements for NR URLLC NR_L1enh_URLLC-UEConTest 2 Rel-16 R5 12/14/2020 12/22/2022 90% complete RP-202566 RP-221485
2. There is no implementation standard for 5G SA Core network– only 3GPP reference architecture specs which list alternative implementation schemes, most of which are “cloud native.” That resulted in a lot of telco confusion that delayed the roll out of 5G SA networks such that most 5G deployed today is NSA which uses 4G LTE core network and functions. Dell’Oro Group’s Dave Bolan wrote in a white paper:
The 5G Core is the key to monetizing the 5G SA network bringing MNOs (Mobile Network Operators) into the modern cloud era, allowing the MNO to (1) offer new services quickly with Cloud-Native Network Functions, (2) add Network Slices on demand for mobile private networks, and (3) address latency-sensitive applications with MEC. These new opportunities cannot be addressed by 4G or 5G NSA networks, and the sooner an MNO embraces 5G SA networking, the closer it will be to reaping new revenue streams.
3. ALL of the 3GPP defined 5G functions and features, require 5G SA Core network. Those 5G functions include 5G security, network slicing, and automation/virtualization. MEC also needs a 5G SA Core network to work efficiently with a 5G RAN. There are relatively few 5G SA Core networks deployed and for those that are, there are few of the highly touted 5G functions available, e.g. T-Mobile is a case in point.
4. There is no standard for roaming between 5G networks, especially not when there are different versions of 5G SA core networks- each requiring a different software download for 5G endpoint devices. Hence, 5G is not truly mobile in the sense of portability. 5G is probably best used for FWA or local M2M/IoT communications where there are no roaming requirements.
5. There is no standard for 5G Frequency Arrangements (ITU M.1036 revision 6) which are critically important for all the mmWave frequencies specified at WRC 19 for 5G, but frequency arrangements not yet agreed upon by ITU-R WP 5D.
6. 5G base station and endpoint devicepower consumption is very high, especially for the mmWave frequencies which deliver the fastest 5G speeds.
The White House is working through the NTIA to develop a national spectrum strategy that would cover 5G, 6G and other spectrum users.
According to FierceWireless, National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) chief Alan Davidson said that work would continue throughout this year. Speaking at last week’s CES conference in Las Vegas, Davidson reminded the audience that the NTIA manages federal spectrum use and serves as the President’s advisor on spectrum policy. That means that the NTIA works together with the FCC to manage spectrum when a federal user is involved. From a practical perspective, the Department of Defense has historically held a lot of valuable spectrum for national security use, making the DoD an incumbent user in many spectrum bands.
The NTIA manages federal spectrum use and serves as the President’s advisor on spectrum policy. (Image Credit: Gerd Altmann from Pixabay)
In 2023 NTIA will be working with federal agency partners to develop a national spectrum strategy, which will provide a long-term plan to meet both commercial and federal spectrum needs.
Officials from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said they’re taking stock of the agency’s spectrum usage in order to potentially release some for commercial uses, according to SpaceNews. “It is an ongoing challenge. We expect to have to fight for maintenance of spectrum. But at the same time, we realize we’re not going to win every fight,” said Steve Volz, NOAA Satellite and Information Service assistant administrator on January 11th at the American Meteorological Society meeting.
Spectrum for 5G and 6G is a critical national policy topic:
“Continuing to meet increasing consumer demand and expectations, ensure continued growth of the US economy, bridge the digital divide, and facilitate global leadership on next-generation technologies requires sufficient spectrum resources,” wrote the CTIA, the US wireless industry’s main trade association. “Accordingly, it is imperative that the commission continually replenish its pipeline of spectrum allocated for commercial mobile and fixed broadband services.”
“America needs a national strategy to make sure there is enough spectrum to build out 5G networks and not fall behind China,” wrote Mike Rogers, a former Congressional representative from Michigan who authored a report critical of China’s Huawei, in The Hill.
Joel Thayer, of the Digital Progress Institute, agreed. “If we cannot get our act together and follow an all-of-the-above spectrum strategy, we cede the race to 5G and even 6G to China. Full stop,” he wrote in The Hill.
Such arguments strongly echo the “race to 5G” rhetoric that wasubiquitous in policy circles in the early days of 5G.
Cloud-native network functions (CNF) promise to change the dynamic of telecommunications network function engineering. The advent of 5G has added impetus to this change. Insight Research is at the cutting edge of CNF market analysis. Here are a few excerpts from our new report on the Virtualized Network Function Orchestrator (VNFO) market
Insight Research considers Virtual Machines (VMs) and Containers to be the major Virtual Network Function Orchestration (VNFO) methodologies. Network functions synthesized using VMs and Containers qualify as Virtual Network Functions (VNFs), in our opinion. That latter term has taken on much broader context since it was first introduced in the context of Network Function Virtualization (NFV) at the OpenFlow World Congress in 2012.
VNFs orchestrated by Containers are sometimes referred to as cloud-native NFs (CNFs). Insight Research has also employed this term as early as 2020. Over time however, we have observed that the usage of CNFs is neither consistent nor uniform.
Most ‘traditional’ Management and Orchestration (MANO) schemes such as ONAP, OSM and all proprietary offerings now support Containers and Kubernetes [1.]. Containers are thus one more mean towards achieving the end-objective of VNFs. As such, Insight Research finds it more appropriate to use VNF as an umbrella term and refer to VM or Container as the specific virtualization methodology.
Note 1. Kubernetes, also known as K8s, is an open-source system for automating deployment, scaling, and management of containerized applications.
The question then arises – where would we slot network functions (NFs) orchestrated by containers encapsulated in VMs? Answer is containers. Similarly, NFs orchestrated by VMs encapsulated in containers are slotted under VMs.
The table below breaks down the VNFO market by virtualization methodology.
We see Containers gaining major market share from VMs such that they are running away with the VNFO market. The advantages of containers over VMs are all well known. Containers are sleeker and when employed with optimal microservice granularity – considerably faster as well.
Additionally, VMs have a head start over containers and have established a solid legacy which will hold good for near to midterm future. However, barriers surrounding container adoption are gradually dissolving with differing momentums across end-applications. The greater the performance differential, the greater is the adoption potential for Containers in end-applications.
Initiatives such Nephio have placed Kubernetes in the center of the VNFO universe. In short, it’s a matter of time before Containers push VMs to be the dominant VNFO virtualization vehicle. However, many question arise.
Here are a few questions for starters:
Is the NFVO the same as service orchestrator?
Is the NFVO the same as SDN controller?
Is Kubernetes an orchestrator?
Since containers and VMs can be embedded inside one another, how do we stamp which virtualization methodology they are using?
If a proprietary MANO uses portions of open source code, should it be considered proprietary?
After picking the brains of numerous experts who were unfailingly patient in unravelling their thinking, Insight Research has been able to arrive at a set of clearcut definitions and assumptions that address the above queries and more.
To buy the report or download an executive summary, please visit:
IPv6 is the first and might be the last upgrade of the global network in the coming decades. The development of IPv6 and IPv6 derivative and convergence technology standards will meet the objective requirements of the continuous expansion of the future network, facilitate the digital transformation in multiple fields, and become a new track of global digital technology innovation. In light of this, the “Global IPv6 Development and Standard Evolution Symposium and the Release Ceremony of the 2022 IPv6 Support White Paper,” held by the IPv6 Forum and the China Future Internet Engineering Center (CFIEC) on January 5, 2023.
The event accumulates global experts from global organizations from IPv6 Forum, CFIEC, Asia-Pacific Internet Network Information Center (APNIC), China Academy of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT), Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF), China Communication Standardization Association (CCSA), Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), European Telecommunications Standardization Association IPv6 Enhanced Innovation Working Group (ETSI IPE). Experts discuss the development vitality and opportunities of IPv6 under the new turning point of digital economy, strengthen the in-depth cooperation between different organizations, establish a perfect IPv6 and derived and fusion technology standards. accelerating large-scale deployment of IPv6 globally in the “global IPv6 development” and “IPv6 standard evolution” dimensions.
IPv6 is leading the development of the Internet
IPv6 provides more innovation capacity and development space for network infrastructure. Wu Hequan, academician of the CAE Member, summarizes the current development trend and characteristics of IPv6 at the meeting. He believes that the global Internet development has entered the dominant period of IPv6, which mainly presents three characteristics: first, the transition from IPv4 to IPv6 is accelerating; Second, from IPv4/IPv6 dual stack to IPv6 only; Third, IPv6 is developing towards IPv6+, with the developing IPv6 address space capabilities and fully integrating with the new generation of IT. IPv6 is playing an active role.
Liu Dong, Vice President of IPv6 Forum, introduced the development of the global IPv6 deployment in general: “The global IPv6 deployment speeds up to a new level in 2022. Countries or regions with a combined IPv6 deployment rate of around 30% or above account for more than half of the world. IPv6 deployment rate in 26 countries exceeded 40%, an increase of 9% compared with 2021; 37 countries have deployment rates exceeding 30%; The deployment rate of 51 countries exceeded 20%. IPv6-only has become a global consensus. The IPv6 applications and users will grow rapidly in the future ”
Sharing the development of IPv6 deployment in the Asia-Pacific region at the conference, Pan Guangliang, Director of Basic Resource Services at the Asia Pacific Internet Network Information Center (APNIC), puts, “The growth of the Internet has not stopped and will not stop. As more and more devices connects to the Internet, IPv6 is the way to go and is growing globally, with Asia seeing strong growth in overall IPv6 capability. According to APNIC statistics, the IPv6 support capacity in Asia exceeds the global average level by nearly 40%. Several countries such as China, India and Malaysia have witnessed rapid IPv6 development. In the next few years, the deployment of IPv6 will continue to improve, and more innovative applications based on IPv6 will appear ”
The development of IPv6 in China is outstanding. Gao Wei, director of the Internet Center of the Standards Institute of the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, points out at the conference: “China is among the first countries in the world to carry out research, standard setting, application development and large-scale commercialization of IPv6 and next-generation Internet technologies. By December 2022, the number of IPv6 users in China has reached 717.7 million, with IPv6 traffic on fixed networks accounting for 12% and mobile networks 46%, showing a good momentum of development. IPv6 transformation achieves monumental success especially in the cloud platform, to achieve the new era of IPv6 traffic increase to provide strong support.”
IPv6 standard evolves from IPv6-Only to “cloud network”, “computing network” and “security”
In the era of digital economy, the integration of the Internet and the economy continues to deepen, and industrial digitalization with digital industrialization have become opportunities for all industries to score a new chapter. As an important starting point of digital transformation, standard is more conducive to opening up a leading advantage in the changing situation. The research, development and creation of IPv6 and its derived and converged technical standards are closely related to the development and deployment of IPv6. With the accelerated deployment of IPv6, the international standardization of IPv6 has entered a new stage and came across new changes.
Zhao Huiling, chairman of CCSA TC3 Technical Committee of China Communications Standardization Association, says that after 20 years of development, the current IPv6 standards have formed a systematic and standardized trend, covering five categories of standards: resources, networks, applications, security and transition. The standards at this stage can meet the needs of IPv6 network construction, but the security standards and application standards still have a lot to catch up. She also proposes four key directions for the creation of IPv6 industry standards in the new stage:
First, in the field of cloud network integration, IPv6 supports the deep integration of new resources such as cloud network edge intelligent collaboration and data computing power;
Second, in the field of IOT, IPv6 supports seamless global coverage, and anyone can communicate with anyone at any place and any time.
Third, in the field of intelligent operation and maintenance, IPv6 supports end-to-end network quality assurance to ensure that the demands of the cloud on the network in enterprise production scenarios are met.
Fourth, in the field of security and credibility, IPv6 supports end-to-end security endogenous mechanisms, adaptive security frameworks and security atomic capabilities, security defense, detection, and response prediction.
Li Zhenbin, member of the IETF Internet Architecture Committee (IAB) and Huawei’s chief IP protocol expert, also mentions that, “As the data communication industry moves towards the intelligent connection era of IPv6+, IETF has also gradually carried out various IPv6 standardization work, including the IPv6+1.0 (SRv6) standard, the IPv6+2.0 (5G&Cloud) standard Important achievements have been made in relevant standards. At this stage, IPv6 provides more differentiated service capabilities. Cloud network and computing network become the key applications of IPv6. Through IPv6 expansion and APN and other technologies, personalized networks can be realized and diverse computing power requirements can be met. In terms of APN6, we have signed a standard manuscript with several operators to successfully promote BOF at IETF, which will be the key direction of future technology innovation and standard creation. In addition, the general tunnel encapsulation technology GIP6 based on IPv6 also deserves further attention. ”
After years of deployment and penetration, IPv6 has entered a golden age of IPv6-Only evolution. When introducing the development of IPv6 at ETSI, Xie Chongfeng, Vice Chairman of ISG at ETSI IPE (IPv6 Enhanced innovation) and senior expert on IPv6 at China Academy of Telecommunication Research, says that network infrastructure is multi-domain and multi-scenario. To this end, we should actively promote the multi-domainIPv6-Only network architecture and technical requirements, in the form of a standard in the industry consensus, which will help operators, OTT, and service and devices manufacturers to buildIPv6-Only networks, and promote network infrastructure towards IPv6-Only.
The Release of 2022 Global IPv6 Support White Paper:
This seminar is not only a rare multilateral interaction and exchange between domestic and foreign organizations and experts on IPv6 development and standards, but also a demonstration of the fruitful results achieved in promoting IPv6 globally in the past year. At the meeting, the 2022 Global IPv6 Support White Paper jointly prepared by the IPv6 Forum and CFIEC was officially released. Latif Ladid, the president of the IPv6 Forum, says at the release ceremony that the white paper is based on the latest progress of global IPv6 technology, the number of global users, the network and domain name system, international operators, websites, cloud services Network equipment and other parties elaborate on the global IPv6 support and make multi-dimensional and multi-dimensional statistics to comprehensively, objectively and accurately reflect the global IPv6 development. At the same time, the IPv6 Forum also selected “IPv6 Outstanding Contribution Enterprises” and “IPv6 Pioneer Enterprises” in 2022 based on the white paper. Latif Latid gives awards to five enterprises including Cisco, Huawei, HP, H3C and D-Link, with the “IPv6 Outstanding Contribution Enterprise” award, and ten enterprises, Dell, IBM, TOPSEC, QI-ANXIN, Allied Telesis, Panasonic, Microsoft, ZTE, China Mobile and TP Link, receive the “IPv6 Pioneer Enterprise” award. Yang Wu, chief architect of the H3C Router product line, Zhu Keyi, head of the Huawei Digital Communication Standards and Patent Department, and Han Minglei, an expert on TUPSEC protocol conversion products, also shared the latest IPv6 solutions and products at the meeting.
Liu Dong, Vice President of the IPv6 Forum and director of CFIEC, illustrates: “At the beginning of the year, it is a great pleasure to meet with you online. Through your sharing, we can see that we have made progress in two important dimensions, ‘Global IPv6 Development’ and ‘IPv6 Standard Evolution’, and formed a large number of new achievements. In the future, our various organizations will continue to deepen cooperation and make use of advantages. While moving towards IPv6-Only, the first is to maintain continuous innovation and improve the IPv6 network value; The second is to actively expand the innovative application of IPv6 in the context of the Internet of Everything. The third is to create and improve new technical standards for the sustainable development of IPv6. Let us accelerate the global IPv6 scale deployment, and let IPv6 and the Internet benefit everyone. ”
Scientists in China claim they have found a way for current-generation quantum computers to crack the RSA algorithm underlying the most common form of online encryption. The researchers said the encryption could be broken with a 372-quantum-bit (qubit) system using hybrid quantum-classical methods to overcome scaling limitations. The Chinese paper “Factoring integers with sublinear resources on a superconducting quantum processor” stated that the algorithm used factored a number with 48 bits on a quantum system with 10 qubits.
The likelihood that quantum computers would be able to crack online encryption was widely believed a danger that could lie a decade or more in the future. But the 24 researchers, from a number of China’s top universities and government-backed laboratories, said their research showed it could be possible using quantum technology that is already available. The quantum bits, or qubits, used in today’s machines are highly unstable and only hold their quantum states for extremely short periods, creating “noise.”
As a result, “errors accumulate in the computer and after around 100 operations there are so many errors the computation fails,” said Steve Brierley, chief executive of quantum software company Riverlane. That has led to a search for more stable qubits as well as error-correction techniques to overcome the “noise,” pushing back the date when quantum computers are likely to reach their full potential by many years. The Chinese claim, by contrast, appeared to be an endorsement of today’s “noisy” systems, while also prompting a flurry of concern in the cyber security world over a potentially imminent threat to online security.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Peter Shor pointed out that the team had “failed to address how fast the algorithm will run,” as it could “still take millions of years.” Shor, the American mathematician who first proposed a way for quantum computers to crack encryption, predicted that the inability to run all the computations at once meant it would take “millions of years” for a quantum computer to run the calculation proposed in the paper. The Chinese research comes at a time when many companies working on the technology are in a race to prove that today’s “noisy” systems can reach so-called quantum advantage — the point at which a quantum computer can perform a useful task more efficiently than a traditional, or “classical”, machine, ushering in commercial use of the technology.
Brierley at Riverlane said it “can’t possibly work” because the Chinese researchers had assumed that a quantum computer would be able to simply run a vast number of computations simultaneously, rather than trying to gain an advantage through applying the system’s quantum properties.
Four years ago, John Preskill, a professor of theoretical physics at the California Institute of Technology, predicted that quantum systems would start to outperform and might have commercial uses once they reached 50-100 qubits in size. But that moment has come and gone without quantum systems showing any clear superiority. IBM unveiled a 127-qubit computer more than a year ago, and last month announced that a new 433-qubit processor would be available in the first quarter of 2023. These days, Preskill sounds more cautious. “I expect that for practical applications with significant business value we’ll have to wait for error-corrected fault-tolerant quantum computers,” he said, adding that this was likely to be “a ways off.” But he added that today’s systems already had scientific value. One reason that hopes have retreated is that new ways have been found to program classical computers to handle tasks that were once thought to be beyond them.
This has pushed back the quantum frontier, delaying the moment when people building quantum systems can claim an advantage, said Oskar Painter, head of quantum hardware in the cloud computing division at Amazon, one of the tech companies that is building its own quantum computer. “They never finally could say, ‘This will be better,’” he said. After years of rising expectations, the lack of practical uses for the technology has led some experts to warn of a potential “quantum winter” — a period when disappointment about a new technology leads to a waning of interest for a number of years. The term is borrowed from the AI “winters” of the 1970s and 1980s, when a number of promising research avenues turned out to be dead ends, setting the field back for prolonged periods.
“People are worried it will be really harsh,” said Painter at Amazon Web Services. Like many in the field, though, he said that any short-term backlash was unlikely to hit long-term research funding. “I don’t think it will go away.” Receding hopes for early benefits from quantum computing have already contributed to a sharp fall in the stocks of a handful of companies that rode the wave of enthusiasm over the sector to go public since the middle of 2021. Based on their peak share prices soon after they each went public, Arquit, IonQ, D-Wave and Rigetti reached a combined value of $12.5bn. That has since fallen to $1.4bn.
Among the events to batter the quantum companies last year, IonQ was hit by a report from a short seller claiming its technology did not live up to its claims, while Rigetti founder Chad Rigetti was removed as chief executive before quitting the company late in the year.
Part of the problem facing the sector has been an excess of “hype” about the technology, said Constantin Gonciulea, chief technology officer of advanced technology at Wells Fargo. He compared the build-up of expectations around quantum to the crypto industry, as many non-experts have been drawn into the field and promises for the technology have far outgrown its potential in the near term. Despite this, companies working on the first quantum machines and software still insist that practical uses of the technology are just around the corner — while continuing to carefully avoid giving too precise a prediction about exactly when that will be.
David Rivas, head of engineering and product at Rigetti, said that the company still believed it would reach quantum advantage when its computers have “a few hundred to a few thousand qubits.” Even if they cannot match the performance of today’s supercomputers, they will still be useful if they cost much less, or if they can operate faster or with more precision, he said. For some quantum companies, the startling Chinese claim about online encryption was a sign that the technology’s big moment is drawing nearer. But for the doubters, the apparent impracticality of the research will serve as confirmation that quantum computing is still an impressive science experiment rather than a practical technology.
The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is giving the aviation industry more time to update legacy radio altimeters that could potentially be impacted by terrestrial 5G operations in C-Band spectrum.
In a notice of proposed rulemaking (to be published January 11, 2023), the FAA said that it remains concerned about the impacts of the C-Band operations on flights, including triggering false warnings from flight systems—particularly as more 5G is deployed across the entire band, and with more than 20 additional operators expected to start operating in the band later this year. This new Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) lays out a timeline for retrofits by February 2024.
SUMMARY: The FAA proposes to supersede Airworthiness Directive 2021-23-12, which applies to all transport and commuter category airplanes equipped with a radio (also known as radar) altimeter. AD 2021-23-12 requires revising the limitations section of the existing airplane/aircraft flight manual to incorporate limitations prohibiting certain operations requiring radio altimeter data when in the presence of 5G C-Band interference as identified by Notices to Air Missions.
Since the FAA issued AD 2021-23-12, the FAA determined that additional limitations are needed due to the continued deployment of new 5G C-Band base stations whose signals are expected to cover most of the contiguous United States at transmission frequencies between 3.7-3.98 GHz. This proposed AD would require revising the limitations section of the existing airplane/aircraft flight manual to incorporate limitations prohibiting certain operations requiring radio altimeter data, due to the presence of 5G C-Band interference.
This proposed AD would also require modifying certain airplanes to allow safe operations in the United States 5G CBand radio frequency environment. The FAA is issuing this AD to address the unsafe condition on these products.
Originally, the agency had targeted a phased approach that required operators of regional aircraft with the most susceptible altimeters to retrofit them with filters by the end of 2022. AT&T and Verizon, meanwhile, had agreed to delay 5G C-band deployments near airports until July 2023, at which time air carriers were expected to have completed all the retrofits to mitigate possible 5G C-band spectrum interference.
Concerns about the impacts of 5G in C-Band to radio altimeters delayed the initial deployment of C-Band spectrum by AT&T and Verizon roughly a year ago. The worry is that the old altimeters, even though they operate in a completely different spectrum range, were not designed to filter out strong terrestrial cellular signals, leading to out-of-band interference. That interference could lead to the radars not being able to accurately gauge an aircraft’s height-above-ground, which could lead to aircraft crashes—particularly in fog or other situations where pilots would not be able to visually confirm whether height information was correct. As a result, Verizon and AT&T voluntarily agreed to operational tweaks near certain airports, including 5G transmission at reduced power levels, or tilt adjustments to cell sites to direct energy away from protected areas.
The FAA said that it has been able to review data from “dozens of alternative method of compliance (AMOC) requests, demonstrating that these radio altimeters can be relied upon to perform their intended function when operating beyond a certain protection radius around 5G C-Band transmitters.” The agency said that its first related actions on C-Band protection were based on conservative estimates of impacts, and that it initially sought to protect against interference during take-offs and landings within a two-nautical-mile circle around the ends of runways.
“After some time and an improved understanding of the C-Band signals and their effects on specific radio altimeters, the FAA was able to reduce the protected area around the ends of runways,” the agency said int he NPRM—first, by defining a rectangular protected airspace, then shifting that to a trapezoidal protection zone that allowed for expanded neighboring 5G signals. “The FAA is now able to assess the 5G C-Band transmissions’ impact to aviation operations in a specific area, taking into account the particularities of the signal and the airport environment. This assessment process is the Signal in Space (SiS) analysis. It includes a 3-dimensional model for the runway safety zone and considers base station heights and terrain around the airport,” the FAA said.
The FAA said that since it began soliciting reports of potential C-Band interference impacts, it received more than 420 reports of radio altimeter anomalies happening within the areas of known 5G C-band deployments. Most of those—about 315—were ultimately determined to have other causes and resolved through normal operational safety procedures, the agency said. But, it added, “for roughly 100 of the anomaly reports occurring within NOTAM areas, the FAA has excluded other potential causes for the anomaly, but could not rule out 5G C-Band interference as the potential source of the radio altimeter anomalies.”
Those 100 incidents included “erroneous Terrain Awareness and Warning System (TAWS) warnings, erroneous Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) warnings, erroneous landing gear warnings, and the erroneous display of radio altimeter data. … The FAA is concerned that to the extent 5G C-Band operations contributed to such events, the effects will occur more frequently as telecommunication companies continue to deploy 5G C-Band services throughout the country.”
“The radio altimeter modifications that would not require a substantial system redesign, allowing aircraft operators to readily replace radio altimeters or install filters that allowed the aircraft to operate safely in a mitigated 5G environment,” the agency said, adding that some altimeters will also be able to demonstration that level of performance without any modification. The FAA estimated that the modifications would affect about 7,993 aircraft registered in the U.S.
