Juniper Research: 5G to Account for 80% of Operator Revenue by 2027; 6G Requires Innovative Technologies
5G to Account for 80% of Operator Revenue by 2027:
Juniper Research has forecast that communications operators are likely to generate $625B from 5G services globally by 2027, a substantial rise from the $310bn predicted for the end of 2023. The new report, Operator revenue strategies: Business models, emerging technologies & market forecasts 2023-2027, forecasts that 80% of global operator-billed service revenue will be attributable to 5G by 2027; allowing operators to secure a return on investment into their 5G networks. However, the increasing implementation of eSIMs into new devices will drive global cellular data traffic to grow by over 180% between 2023 and 2027, as data traffic is offloaded from fixed and Wi-Fi networks to 5G.
Juniper Research noted that the increasing implementation of embedded subscriber identity modules (eSIMs) into new devices would drive global cellular data traffic to grow by over 180% between 2023 and 2027, as data traffic is offloaded from fixed and Wi-Fi networks to 5G. Previous Juniper studies have observed that after spending more than a decade offering a potential breakthrough in mobile communications, embedded eSIM technology has enjoyed noticeable growth in the past 12 months, making its way from smartphones to smart devices. The report also calculated that, driven by Apple’s innovation disrupting the smartphone sector, the value of the global eSIM market was expected increase from $4.7bn in 2023 to $16.3bn by 2027.
Juniper Research author Frederick Savage commented: “eSIM-capable devices will drive significant growth in cellular data, as consumers leverage cellular networks for use cases that have historically used fixed networks. Operators must ensure that networks, including 5G and upcoming 6G networks, are future‑proofed by implementing new technologies across the entirety of networks.”
6G Development Necessitates Innovative Technologies:
To prepare for this increasing demand in cellular data, the report predicts that 6G standards must adopt innovative technologies that are not currently used in 5G standards. It identified NTNs (Non‑terrestrial Networks) and sub-1THz frequency bands as key technologies that must be at the center of initial trials and tests of 6G networks, to provide increased data capabilities over existing 5G networks.
However, the research cautions that the increased cost generated by the use of satellites for NTNs and the acquisition costs of high-frequency spectrum will create longer timelines for securing return on 6G investment for operators. As a result, it urges the telecommunications industry to form partnerships with specialists in non-terrestrial connectivity; thus benefitting from lower investment costs into 6G networks.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
References:
https://www.juniperresearch.com/pressreleases/operator-5g-revenue-to-reach-$625bn-by-2027
Juniper Research: CPaaS Gobal Market to Reach $29 Billion by 2025
Juniper Research: 5G connectivity opportunity for the connected car market
Juniper Research: 5G Fixed Wireless Access to Generate $2.5 Billion in Operator Revenue by 2023
ITU-R report in progress: Capabilities of the terrestrial component of IMT-2020 (5G) for multimedia communications
Introduction:
ITU-R WP5D is working on a preliminary draft of a report that addresses the capabilities of IMT-2020 to distribute multimedia content such as video, audio, text and graphics, including support for real-time multimedia interactive applications. The new report also addresses the capabilities of IMT-2020 user devices and base stations to support such multimedia communications with low latency and wider transmission bandwidth. It complements Report ITU-R M.2373 on “Audio-visual capabilities and applications supported by terrestrial IMT systems,” which addresses the capabilities of IMT systems for delivering audio-visual services to the consumers and also covers some aspects of production of audio-visual content.
Multimedia applications include network video, digital magazine, digital newspaper, digital radio, social media, mobile TV, digital TV, touch media, etc., that are enabled by IMT-2020 technologies. Beyond the traditional media service, the new media application not only supports accurate delivery of content, but also supports real-time interaction and real-time uploading of user-generated content. The users can be both consumers and producers of new media content.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Editor’s Note:
Ultra low latency is needed to support almost any type of multimedia applications. In particular, the URLLC performance requirements must meet those specified in ITU-R M.2410 –Key requirements related to the minimum technical performance of IMT-2020 candidate radio interface technologies. The current version of IMT 2020 (ITU-R M.2150) doesn’t meet the M.2410 ultra low latency requirement of <1ms in the data plane and <10msec in the control plane. Until 3GPP Release 16 URLLC in the RAN spec is completed and performance tested, we don’t expect any serious use of 5G for multimedia applications.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Applications for multimedia content include but are not limited to:
– audio-visual applications,
– network video applications,
– digital online magazine applications,
– digital online newspaper applications,
– internet radio applications,
– social media applications,
– mobile internet TV applications,
– touch media applications,
– online information distribution applications,
– on-demand video applications
– imaging and audio distribution applications
– content dissemination applications
– file delivery application
_ Real time uploading of multimedia content
_ Electronic classroom presentation technology
_ Full motion video conferencing
This report covers the application of IMT technology to the specific applications mentioned above. For details of applications of the Broadcasting service for multimedia, please refer to the list of ITU‑R Recommendations and ITU-R Reports below.
Relevant ITU-R Recommendations and Reports:
- Recommendation ITU-R BT.1833 – Broadcasting of multimedia and data applications for mobile reception by handheld receivers
- Recommendation ITU-R BT.2016 – Error-correction, data framing, modulation and emission methods for terrestrial multimedia broadcasting for mobile reception using handheld receivers in VHF/UHF bands
- Recommendation ITU-R M.2083 – Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2020 and beyond
- Recommendation ITU-R M.2150 – Detailed specifications of the terrestrial radio interfaces of International Mobile Telecommunications-2020 (IMT-2020)
- Report ITU-R BT.2049 – Broadcasting of multimedia and data applications for mobile reception
- Report ITU-R BT.2295 – Digital terrestrial broadcasting systems
- Report ITU-R M.2373 – Audio-visual capabilities and applications supported by terrestrial IMT systems
Multimedia Use cases:
- Ultra-high-definition multimedia content
- Virtual reality (VR) panoramic video
- Augmented Reality (AR)
- Entertainment live streaming
- Live eCommerce (use of live webcast technology to carry out new sales methods)
- Smart venue (new viewing experiences at live events or activities)
- Live streaming production and distribution of events
IMT-2020 capabilities for real-time multimedia interaction and media content uploading:
Interactive multimedia allows the user to control, combine and manipulate a variety of media types, such as text, computer graphics audio and video materials, animation and virtual reality.
To enable interactive task completion during voice conversation, IMT-2020 is capable of supporting low-delay speech coding for interactive conversational services (refer 3GPP TS22.261, 100 ms, one-way mouth-to-ear).
Table 1. below (from 3GPP TS 22.261 Table 7.1-1.) gives a capability example of IMT-2020 to support high data rate and traffic density scenario for an interactive audio and video application in indoor hotspot.
Table 1. High data rate and traffic density scenario of IMT-2020 for an interactive audio and video application
| Scenario | Experienced data rate (DL) | Experienced data rate (UL) | Area traffic capacity (DL) | Area traffic capacity (UL) | Overall user density | Activity factor | UE speed | Coverage |
| Indoor hotspot | 1 Gbit/s | 500 Mbit/s | 15 Tbit/s/km2 | 2 Tbit/s/km2 | 250 000/km2 | Note 2 | Pedestrians | Office and residential (Note 1) |
| NOTE 1: A certain traffic mix is assumed; only some users use services that require the highest data rates. | ||||||||
Conclusions:
This report (in progress) summarizes various capabilities of terrestrial component of IMT-2020 for Multimedia communications. Multimedia is an immersive technological way of presenting information that combines audio, video, images, and animations with textual data. Multimedia applications include network video, digital magazine, digital newspaper, digital radio, social media, touch media, etc., and can be easily enabled using IMT-2020. New emerging technologies such as Virtual Reality (VR) and Augmented Reality (AR) are becoming key technologies to upgrade the traditional multimedia industries.
The IMT-2020 capabilities can support the evolving interactive multimedia communication with the capabilities not only broader bandwidth, higher data rate, but also lower latency and higher reliability.
The typical technologies are flexible and dynamic resources allocation, uplink enhancement e.g. UL MIMO, UL Carrier Aggregation and Dual connectivity, and related architecture improvement, which can connect the user to a high-definition video, real-time multimedia interaction virtual world on their mobile device.
Live events with high definition and ultra-high definition content can be streamed via IMT-2020 radio network with higher throughput. HD and UHD content (e.g. news, sport event) can be real-time produced and on demand distributed to mobile devices without any interruptions through IMT-2020 higher user experienced data rate and low latency. The entertainment industry will hugely benefit from IMT-2020 wireless networks, which are expected to enable HD virtual reality games with a better real-time interactive gaming experience, and high dynamic range video streaming without interruption. Cloud AR and Cloud VR with HD or UHD video can be supported with higher user experienced data rate and low latency supported by IMT-2020. It is foreseeable that with the support of IMT-2020 technology, it will gradually bring consumers more amazing virtual experiences.
References:
Evaluating Multimedia Protocols on 5G Edge for Mobile Augmented Reality
https://www.routledge.com/5G-Multimedia-Communication-Technology-Multiservices-and-Deployment/Bojkovic-Milovanovic-Fowdur/p/book/9780367561154
https://www.rcrwireless.com/20220413/5g/what-is-the-5g-multimedia-priority-service-mps
IMT 2020.SPECS approved by ITU-R but may not meet 5G performance requirements; no 5G frequencies (revision of M.1036); 5G non-radio aspects not included
Ericsson Mobility Report: 5G monetization depends on network performance
A special Ericsson Mobility Report – called the Business Review edition – addresses monetization opportunities as they relate to 5G. Flattening revenues have been a challenge for service providers in all parts of the world, often impacting network investment decisions as part of their business growth strategies, known as ‘monetization’ in the industry.
The report highlights a positive revenue growth trend since the beginning of 2020 in the top 20* 5G markets – accounting for about 85 percent of all 5G subscriptions globally – that correlates with increasing 5G subscription penetration in these markets.
The report finds:
- Tiered pricing models are key for service providers, both for effectively addressing the individual needs of each customer and for continuing to drive long-term revenue growth.
- The top 20 5G markets have seen a significant network performance boost following the introduction of 5G services.
- After a period of slow or no growth, wireless service revenue curves are again pointing upwards in these leading markets. This correlate with 5G subscription penetration growth.
- In the top 20 5G markets, the average downlink throughput has increased by 4.3 times over the past 5 years. This is 32 percent more than other markets on a global level, showing the positive impact 5G has had on network performance and user experience. The most significant network performance improvement in the top 20 5G markets was in 2020, following the introduction of 5G NSA network services.
- In the top 20 5G markets, the median downlink throughput of 5G is 5.8 times higher than the throughput of 4G (187 Mbps vs. 32 Mbps) in Q3 2022. This performance boost is what service providers could offer to consumers as an immediate benefit of upgrading to 5G.
Fredrik Jejdling, Executive Vice President and Head of Networks, Ericsson, says: “Meeting our customers’ challenges is at the heart of our R&D efforts and every resulting product we develop. The link between 5G uptake and revenue growth in the top 20 5G markets underlines that not only is 5G a game changer, but that early adopters benefit. What is particularly encouraging about this is that while 5G is still at a relatively early phase, it is growing fast with proven early use cases and a clear path to medium and long-term use cases.”
As expected, Enhanced Mobile Broadband (eMBB) is the main early use case for 5G, driven by increasing geographical coverage and differentiated offerings. More than one billion 5G subscriptions are currently active across some 230 live commercial networks globally. 5G eMBB offers the fastest revenue opportunities for 5G, as it is an extension of service providers’ existing business, relying on the same business models and processes. Even in the top 20 5G markets, about 80 percent of consumers have yet to move to 5G subscriptions – one pointer to the potential for revenue growth.
As highlighted in the November 2022 Ericsson Mobility Report, Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is the second biggest early 5G use case, particularly in regions with unserved or underserved broadband markets. FWA offers attractive revenue growth potential for CSPs as it largely utilizes mobile broadband assets. FWA connections are forecast to top 300 million within six years.
Beyond consumer subscribers, there are growing opportunities in enterprise and public sector applications across the world. Ericsson sas that 5G enables significant value for enterprises, with private 5G networks and wireless wide area networks being deployed for enterprise and industrial use.
Upgrading existing 4G sites to 5G has the potential to realize increases of 10 times in capacity and reduce energy consumption by more than 30 percent, offering the possibility of growing revenue and lowering costs, while addressing sustainability.
Jejdling adds: “Revenue growth and sustainability are recurring themes in my discussions with customers. In this special Ericsson Mobility Report edition, we have explored how service providers are tapping 5G opportunities. We see initial signs of revenue growth in advanced 5G markets with extensive coverage build-out and differentiated service offerings. An equally crucial aspect of 5G is that it brings cost advantages and helps service providers handle the data growth needed to drive future revenue. This can make 5G the growth catalyst that the market has been waiting for.”
Read the full Ericsson Mobility Report Business Review Edition report here.
*Note: The markets categorized as the Top 20 5G markets in the report are: Australia, Bahrain, China, Denmark, Finland, Hong Kong, Ireland, Japan, Kuwait, Monaco, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, the UAE, the UK and the US.
They were selected on the basis of 5G subscription penetration. These markets represent 85 percent of all 5G subscriptions globally – with each market having 5G penetration above 15 percent.
Related links:
Ericsson Mobility Report site
Ericsson 5G
Ericsson 4G and 5G Fixed Wireless Access
Breaking the energy curve
5G the next wave – what does consumers want
Nokia introduces new Wavence microwave solutions to extend 5G reach in both urban and rural environments
Nokia today announced the availability of the UBT-m XP, the latest addition to its Wavence product family designed to support mobile operators and enterprises with premium coverage in both dense urban and rural environments. Nokia’s newest E-Band radio is a high-capacity outdoor unit with a small, light form factor and the highest transmit power available on the market; ideal for urban microwave transport applications.
Nokia SteadEband, a stabilized three-foot antenna that combats common E-Band issues [1.], was also announced to complement UBT-m XP. It includes tower vibrations and movements due to thermal effects. Combined with the UBT-m XP, it can increase the typical E-Band link distance by up to 50 percent, helping mobile operators deliver multi-gigabit 5G connectivity to their customers. These new products address all use cases for improving link distance as well as the energy efficiency of the Wavence portfolio.
Note 1. The E-Band is 71-76 and 81-86 GHz, standardized worldwide, commonly referred to as “80 GHz,” but it’s always that range, said Nokia Microwave Radio Links VP Giuseppe Targia, noting that the E-Band is suitable for both urban and suburban environments.
Urban Coverage Boost:
The UBT-m XP is a single ultra-broadband transceiver with an integrated modem and diplexer, offering best-in-class energy efficiency with twice the transmit power compared to the industry average. In recent tests, Nokia demonstrated a 12-kilometer-long link using the Nokia UBT-m XP and the SteadEband antenna.
Rural Broadband Extension:
Nokia also announced the launch of the Outdoor Channel Aggregator (OCA) to support mobile operators looking to expand the reach and capacity of their networks for rural broadband applications. The OCA aggregates multiple UBT-T XP radios, Nokia’s high-capacity, high-power, outdoor dual-band radio, for N+0 operations and allows for increased throughput with improved system gain of up to 10 dB compared with traditional aggregation methods. This is important in increasing the link distance or to optimize OPEX/CAPEX by removing the requirement for larger antenna or repeater systems.
Nokia is also introducing the Carrier Aggregation High Density (CAHD) card, which adds ‘single pipe’ capacity to the backhaul to support the link distance. The innovative CAHD module enables 10 Gbps backhaul capacity over multiple channels and supports seamless migration from existing low-capacity backhaul to high capacity hence preserving an operator’s investment.
Nokia’s ‘Simplified RAN Transport’ solution optimizes radio access base station and microwave radio transport hardware to the minimum. This provides enhanced serviceability and operations without the need for dedicated indoor microwave equipment. Nokia’s solution saves 30 percent more energy versus a traditional microwave site solution, due to a reduced number of units and less air conditioning requirements. Additionally, it also enables lower TCO and reduced site footprint.
Nokia’s comprehensive Wavence portfolio provides a complete microwave solution for all use cases covering short-haul, long-haul, E-Band, and SDN-based management both for mobile operators and Enterprises. Its zero-footprint implementation for full-outdoor architectures can be integrated directly with RAN and IP devices with common management. This contributes to an overall reduction in network energy consumption and its software features and automation help to achieve further energy-saving targets.
“It’s no secret that capacity and radio efficiency are driving the market, said Emmy Johnson, Chief Analyst, Sky Light Research. “According to Sky Light Research’s latest forecast, the high-capacity E-band market is expected to grow north of 60 percent in 2023. Nokia’s newest products answer this call but with the added benefit of high power and energy efficiency. The sustainability and power metrics are impressive, as they not only lower TCO but also help meet climate change guidelines.”
Giuseppe Targia, Vice President, Microwave Radio Links at Nokia, said: “We are further strengthening our industry-leading Wavence portfolio with the addition of these next-generation products. The winning combination of the UBX-m XP and the SteadEband offers our customers a high-performance transport solution with leading capacity and coverage for both urban and rural environments. Microwave links are cost-efficient and fast to deploy, representing a robust alternative to fiber backhaul.”
Nokia’s Wavence UBT-mX
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
References:
Wavence – Microwave transmission
https://www.nokia.com/networks/mobile-networks/wavence-microwave-transmission/e-band-portfolio/
Counterpoint Research: Ericsson and Nokia lead in 5G SA Core Network Deployments
There was steady growth in 5G network coverage in 2022, with the number of subscribers reaching almost 1 billion worldwide. Although most of the 5G deployments in 2022 were in the developed economies of the world, Counterpoint Research expects that the bulk of 5G network roll outs in 2023 will be in emerging markets. This will drive the continuing transition from 5G NSA to 5G SA. To date, 42 network operators have deployed 5G SA commercially.
Counterpoint Research ‘s recently published 5G SA Tracker is a culmination of an extensive study of the 5G SA market. It provides details of all operators with 5G SA cores in commercial operation at the end of 2022, with market share by region, vendor and by frequency band. As shown in Exhibit 1, the Asia-Pacific region led the world at the end of 2022, followed by North America and Europe, with the other regions – Middle East and Africa and Latin America – lagging behind.
Key Points:
Key points discussed in the report include:
- Operators – 42 operators have deployed 5G SA commercially [1.] with many more testing and in trials. Most of the deployments are in the developed economies of the world with those in emerging economies lagging. In some markets, operators have adopted a “wait-and-see” approach and are looking for evidence of successful use cases before switching from 5G NSA to SA. The ongoing economic headwinds might also delay commercial deployment of SA particularly during the first half of 2023.
Note 1. By the end of 2022, Dell’Oro Group had identified 39 MNOs that had deployed 5G SA eMMB networks.
- Vendors – Ericsson and Nokia lead the 5G SA Core market globally and are benefiting from the geopolitical sanctions on Chinese vendors Huawei and ZTE in some markets. Asian vendors Samsung and NEC are mainly focused on their respective domestic markets, but and are expanding their reach to Tier-2 operators and emerging markets, while US vendor Mavenir is active across all regions, with multiple deployments due to become live in 2023, including several with Tier-1 operators.
- Spectrum – most operators are deploying 5G in mid-band frequencies, for example, n78, as it provides faster speeds and good coverage. A small number of operators have also launched commercial services in the sub-1GHz and millimetre wave bands. FWA seems to be the most popular use case at present but there is a lot of interest in edge services and network slicing as well.
Report Overview:
Counterpoint Research’s 5G SA Core Tracker, January 2023 tracker provides an overview of the 5G Standalone (SA) market, highlighting the key trends and drivers shaping the market, plus details of commercial launches by vendor, by region and by frequency band. In addition, the tracker provides details about the 5G SA vendor ecosystem split into two categories: public operator and private network markets.
Table of Contents:
- Overview
- Market Update
- 5G SA Market Deployments
- Commercial Deployment by Operators
- Network Engagements by Region
- Network Engagements by Deployments Status
- Leading 5G Core Vendors
- Mobile Core Vendor Ecosystem
- 5G Core Vendors Market Landscape
- Outlook
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
During its recent Q4 2022 earnings call, Nokia CEO Pekka Lundmark was asked about 5G SA core networks. Lundmark said, “Obviously 5G standalone is now the name of the game because you need 5G standalone in terms of getting the full benefits of 5G. There is going to be a lot of investment in 5G core, and operators will be implementing some critical important services like slicing, which require investment in the 5G core.”
That’s an understatement because 5G SA is needed to realize 3GPP defined 5G features and functions, like security and network slicing. 5G NSA, which is mostly deployed today, is actually 4G with 3GPP 5G-NR for the RAN.
References:
Update on 5G Stand-Alone (SA) Core Networks
Dell’Oro: Mobile Core Network & MEC revenues to be > $50 billion by 2027
Global Data: Wireless telcos don’t know how to market 5G SA
Omdia and Ericsson on telco transitioning to cloud native network functions (CNFs) and 5G SA core networks
Why are 5G SA Core networks taking so long to be commercially deployed?
Dell’Oro: Mobile Core Network market driven by 5G SA networks in China
Mobile Core Network & Multi-Access Edge Market—A Look into 2023
Mobile Core Network (MCN) growth to slow due to slow roll-out of 5G SA networks
Ericsson & Mobily enhance network performance through Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Ericsson has developed an AI system for automated network management which has now been included in Saudi Arabia operator Mobily’s wireless network. The companies have successfully deployed the ‘Ericsson AI-based network solution’ into Mobily’s network in Saudi Arabia in order to enable some ‘enhanced and smart end-user experiences.’
This AI system will provide 5G network diagnostics, root cause analysis and recommendations for ‘superior user experiences.’ The network diagnostics capabilities within the cognitive software suite provides ‘proactive network optimization’, allowing the operator to identify and resolve network anomalies and providing reliable connectivity, we are told.
Ericsson’s AI-based network solution delivers comprehensive Machine Learning (ML) based 5G network diagnostics, root cause analysis and recommendations for superior user experiences. The smart, automated network diagnostics capabilities of Ericsson’s cognitive software suite results in proactive network optimization, supporting Mobily, the leading digital partner of the international technical conference LEAP 23, in identifying and resolving network anomalies and constantly providing reliable connectivity.
Ericsson is so excited by the product in fact that it says it ‘redefines the very nature of network operations,’ alongside the presence of Big Data and ‘ever-expanding and more accessible computing power.’
“From people in remote locations to large gatherings, individuals often expect uninterrupted and quality connectivity,” said Alaa Malki, Chief Technology Officer from Mobily. “Ericsson’s Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based solution enables our customers to enjoy superior and uninterrupted 5G connectivity to stay connected with loved ones or to document key moments anytime, anywhere. Our partnership with Ericsson has once more reinforced our commitment to Unlock Possibilities during times that matter most, and we look forward to carrying our mission forward. I want to thank Ericsson for its support which allowed us to use this data-driven concept to make all kinds of changes and optimizations within short timeframes.”
Ekow Nelson, Vice President at Ericsson Middle East and Africa said: “For numerous years, our partnership with Mobily has provided customers with assured and superior connectivity to stream live experiences and benefit from a multitude of services even in the most challenging environments. Our success relied on Ericsson’s Artificial Intelligence-based network solution built with Machine Learning models that learn from the live network using the multiple sources of data to deliver near real-time improvements, thus avoiding interruptions during critical and peak times.”
How AI interacts and disrupts different industries looks likely to be an increasingly prominent issue in the years to come, for all sorts of reasons. In an interview with Telecoms.com recently, Beerud Sheth – CEO of conversational AI firm Gupshup said, “Like almost any industry, telcos will also have to figure out how they see this disruption… it creates opportunities and threats. And I think you have to lean into the opportunities, and maybe mitigate the threats a little bit. It changes a lot of things, it changes consumer expectations, it changes what people expect and what they want to do and can do, and they have to keep pace with all of it. So, there’s a lot of work for telco executives.”
References:
Ericsson, Mobily successfully enhance network performance through Artificial Intelligence
Ericsson warns profit margins at RAN business set to worsen
BT’s CEO: Openreach Fiber Network is an “unstoppable machine” reaching 9.6M UK premises now; 25M by end of 2026
BT’s chief executive said its broadband network is now an “unstoppable machine” that will ultimately “end in tears” for many of its fiber optic competitors. “There is only going to be one national network,” Philip Jansen told the Financial Times. “Why do you need to have multiple providers?” BT said on Thursday that its networking division Openreach had laid fiber to 9.6M premises, with 29% of people in those areas opting to move over to its fiber optic connectivity offering.
BT has long provided the main wholesale network in Britain, giving access to TalkTalk and Sky among other OTT players. BT is ploughing billions of pounds into its network, extending its fiber offerings to 25M premises by end of 2026.
Competitors to Openreach, backed by billions in private capital, are racing to lay full fiber across the UK before the incumbent gets there. They include Virgin Media O2 and more than 100 alternative networks known as “altnets.”
Virgin Media O2 is seeking to upgrade its network to fiber by 2028 and has formed a joint venture between its owners, Spain’s Telefónica and Liberty Global, as well as infrastructure fund Infravia, to lay fiber to an additional 7M premises across the UK and offer wholesale access to other broadband providers. That’s in areas not already covered by the existing Virgin Media network. Industry insiders say network operators need to sign up about 40% of customers in any given location where they are building to make their business viable.
“Building is irrelevant — it’s how many people you’ve got on the network,” Jansen said. “No one else has got a machine anywhere near ours. It’s . . . unstoppable.” He said that the market would probably shake out to be just a “couple of big players” as well as a smattering of specialist providers for things like rural areas and multi-occupancy buildings — a process that would “end in tears” for many of the other operators. Jansen added that while BT had been spending large amounts of cash this year to fund its build efforts, once the construction phase ends he hopes the company will generate “a lot more cash” and could increase the dividend offered to shareholders.
“BT was on the back foot five years ago, we’re unquestionably on the front foot now,” he added. “Investors who own the company need a return.” BT maintained its full-year outlook on Thursday as it posted third-quarter revenue and earnings in line with analysts’ expectations. Revenue fell 3% in the third quarter compared with the same period in the previous year, to £5.2bn, which it attributed in part to lower sales in its global division and a loss of income from BT Sport following the completion of a joint venture with Warner Bros Discovery.
In November BT announced that it would increase its cost-savings target by £500mn to £3bn by 2025 as it sought to mitigate higher energy and inflation costs. As part of the cost-cutting drive, Jansen said there would be fewer people working at BT over the next five years, although he refused to be drawn on numbers. BT has already reduced its net headcount by 2,000 over the past two years, despite significant recruitment at Openreach. It has pushed ahead with inflation-linked price rises in 2023 for the majority of its consumer and wholesale customers in spite of cross-party calls for telecoms companies to reverse the decision during a cost of living crisis. “Right now the [capital expenditure] has to be paid for somehow,” Jansen said. “Hopefully inflation comes down and it won’t be so painful for everyone.”
References:
https://www.ft.com/content/031dcf72-dfaf-4e90-85d2-335ef703dbd1
Openreach on benefit of FTTP in UK; Full Fiber rollouts increasing
Super fast broadband boosts UK business; Calls to break up BT & sell Openreach
China to build ground stations in Antartica to support ocean monitoring satellites
China, only the third country to put a man in space after the Soviet Union and United States, is to build ground stations on Antarctica to back its network of ocean monitoring satellites, state media said on Thursday.
Renders of the 43.95 million yuan ($6.52 million) project show four radome-covered antennas at China’s Zhongshan research base in East Antarctica. It is unknown if these are new and additional to antennas already established at the base.
The antennas will assist data acquisition from Chinese satellites that orbit in polar and near-polar orbits. Satellites in these orbits are visible near the poles multiple times a day, allowing more frequent opportunities for downlink than with stations at lower latitudes.
China has already launched eight Haiyang series ocean observation satellites into sun-synchronous orbits between 2002 and 2021, and plans more in the coming years. The first new-generation Haiyang-3 satellite is scheduled for launch this year, according the China’s main space contractor, CASC.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
China Satellites and Balloons used for Espionage?
China’s global network of ground stations to support a growing number of satellites and outer space ambitions has drawn concern from some nations that it could be used for espionage, a suggestion China rejects.
In 2020, Sweden’s state-owned space company, which had provided ground stations that helped fly Chinese spacecraft and transmit data, declined to renew contracts with China or accept new Chinese business due to “changes” in geopolitics.
The United States military shot down a Chinese spy balloon on Saturday that had spent the last week traversing the country. The balloon, which spent five days traveling in a diagonal southeast route from Idaho to the Carolinas, had moved off the coast by midday Saturday and was shot down within moments of its arrival over the Atlantic Ocean.
One of two F-22 fighter jets from Langley Air Force Base fired a Sidewinder air-to-air missile, downing the balloon, which was flying at an altitude of 60,000 to 65,000 feet. The F-22s were at 58,000 feet, with other American fighters in support.
In announcing the cancellation of his trip to China, U.S. Secretary of State, Antony J. Blinken said the entry of the spy balloon was a “clear violation of U.S. sovereignty and international law.”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
China Aerospace Science and Technology Group Co. is to build the stations at the Zhongshan research base, one of two permanent Chinese research stations on Antarctica, after winning the tender with its 43.95 million yuan ($6.53 million) bid, state-controlled China Space News reported.
Liftoff of a Long March 2C from Taiyuan carrying the Haiyang-1D ocean observation satellite on June 10, 2020. Image Credit: CASC
No technical details of the project were given in the report, though China Space News published two accompanying illustrations of an artist’s rendering that shows four ground stations at Zhongshan, located by Prydz Bay in East Antarctica, south of the Indian Ocean.
The project was part of broader initiatives aimed at building China’s marine economy and turning China into a marine power, according to China Space News.
References:
Ericsson, Intel and Microsoft demo 5G network slicing on a Windows laptop in Sweden
Ericsson, Intel and Microsoft successfully demonstrating end-to-end 5G standalone (SA) network slicing capabilities on a Windows laptop at Ericsson’s Lab in Sweden. This pioneering trial demonstrates the applicability of the technology on devices beyond smartphones, paving the way for new business/enterprise opportunities and for consumer use cases such as mobile gaming and collaboration applications for 5G cellular-connected laptops.
The trial used User Equipment Route Selection Policy (URSP), which enables devices to automatically select between different slices according to which application they are using. It also used Ericsson’s Dynamic Network Slicing Selection, Ericsson’s dual-mode 5G Core, and Ericsson’s RAN Slicing capabilities to ‘secure end-user service differentiation.’
Network slicing has long been seen as vital to capturing the value that a 5G network can provide for communications service providers (CSPs) and enterprises. The market for network slicing alone in the enterprise segment is projected at USD 300 billion by 2025, according to the GSMA. By demonstrating a single Windows 11 device can make use of multiple slices, which are used according to the on-device usage profiles and network policies defined at the CSP level, the partners show the flexibility and range of potential use cases available using this technology.
This trial illustrates the opportunities for 5G monetization beyond smartphone devices and opens the door to a wider 5G device ecosystem, allowing CSPs and other members of the telecoms and IT world to expand their horizons when considering opportunities to generate profitable use cases for 5G. Laptop type devices, in particular, are vital to enterprise productivity. The inclusion of Windows 11 laptops in the ranks of devices that can be used for commercializing 5G network slicing is a sign of the ecosystem maturing. Network slicing capabilities will benefit consumer and enterprise segments by defining specific Service Level Agreement per slice for existing and emerging Windows applications and use cases, such as real-time enterprise applications like Microsoft Teams and Office365, game/media streaming, and emerging AI and augmented reality/extended reality (AR/XR) applications.
Sibel Tombaz, Head of Product Line 5G RAN at Ericsson, said: “Expanding the range of devices for network slicing to include laptops will allow new business segments to create a variety of use cases for consumer and enterprises. We have shown, together with Intel and Microsoft, how ecosystem collaboration can open new possibilities. We will continue to strengthen Ericsson’s network slicing capabilities and work with industry partners to enable more applications on several devices, spreading the benefits of 5G in the consumer and enterprise segments.”
Ian LeGrow, Microsoft Corporate Vice-President of Core OS Innovation said: “We are thrilled to showcase our cutting-edge technology and its ability to deliver fast, dependable and secure 5G connectivity on Windows 11. Partnering with Intel and Ericsson only further solidifies our commitment to innovation and openness in our platform.”
This ground-breaking network slicing demo will be showcased jointly with Intel and Microsoft in the Ericsson Hall during MWC Barcelona 2023 from February 27 to March 2.
Andrew Wooden of telecoms.com wrote:
“There are so many tests and trials going on, and while technically seem to signal a bit of incremental progress each time, it can be easy to lose the context of what is supposed to be offered while digging around in the weeds of experimental telecoms architecture. That said if trials like this can keep the emphasis on how they provide some extra money-making opportunities for those in the business of flogging 5G, and some genuine benefits for the rest of us, perhaps it will gain some traction when they show it off in Barcelona.”
Source: Viavi Solutions
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
References:
https://www.ericsson.com/en/news/2023/2/ericsson-intel-and-microsoft-show-network-slicing-capabilities-on-a-laptop-for-consumer-and-enterprise-applications
https://www.ericsson.com/en/network-slicing#dynamicnetworksliceselection
https://www.ericsson.com/en/core-network/5g-core
https://telecoms.com/519733/ericsson-intel-and-microsoft-slice-up-a-network-and-feed-it-to-a-laptop/
Ericsson and Nokia demonstrate 5G Network Slicing on Google Pixel 6 Pro phones running Android 13 mobile OS
Samsung and KDDI complete SLA network slicing field trial on 5G SA network in Japan
5G Network Slicing Tutorial + Ericsson releases 5G RAN slicing software
https://www.viavisolutions.com/en-us/5g-network-slicing
Network Slicing and 5G: Why it’s important, ITU-T SG 13 work, related IEEE ComSoc paper abstracts/overviews
China is global IoT Superpower with 1.8 billion connections as of Dec 2022
As of December 2022, the number of connections for cellular Internet of Things (IoT) services hit 1.8 billion in China, accounting for 70 percent of the world’s total, according to the country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT).
MIIT’s figures, which are based on data from three major telecommunication companies in China, show that the total number of terminal connections for mobile network have reached 3.528 billion, among which 1.845 billion are cellular IoT end users. The biggest proportion of the IoT services in China are using NB-IoT (the most popular 3GPP and ITU-R standard for cellular IoT), rather than LTE-M or other cellular IoT variant.
The ministry says four NB-IoT use cases have scaled to more than 10 million connections: water meters, gas meters, smoke detectors and tracking. Another seven, including agriculture and streetlights, have crossed the 1 million mark. The MIIT has also issued a breakdown of end-user terminal numbers, with 496 million deployed in public services, 375 million in internet of vehicles, 350 million in smart retail and 192 million in smart home. In area without service coverage, NB-IoT is deployed to achieve connectivity, such as soil sensors for smart agriculture.
China’s cellular IoT end users, for the first time, have surpassed that of mobile phone users by 161 million, accounting for 52.3 percent of the total, MIIT said.
Cellular IoT connects a wide variety of machines and devices, allowing them to communicate with each other by piggybacking on the cellular networks often used. Simply put, it facilitates massive data streams among sensors, actuators, etc., without building additional physical infrastructure.
While the IoT services are heavily applied across a myriad of industries, such as manufacturing, logistics, agriculture and transportation, cellular IoT modules fulfill a critical role as part of IoT systems or products in serving as the gateway for data transfer through 5G, 4G and LTE.
Government think tank CAICT predicts that by 2030 China will have tens of billions mobile IoT connections. The three operators, with their monopoly over communications infrastructure, will be at the center of this growth story.
In 2021 China Mobile reported 11.4 billion Chinese yuan (US$1.57 billion) in revenue from its IoT business, a 21% year-over-year (YoY) rise, with the number of connections 20% higher. It hasn’t yet reported revenue from 2022 but says total connections rose 14% to 1.2 billion, website C114 reported.
China Telecom’s 2021 IoT revenue was 2.9 billion yuan, while in the first three quarters of 2022, China Unicom claimed 366 million connections and 6.2 billion yuan in revenue, up 26% YoY.
The revenue numbers are low and will probably remain relatively so, but with this sort of growth rate, and with no external competitors, the telcos will be expecting their IoT portfolios to become a healthy niche income stream. However, while the growth numbers are good, we have no insight into the underlying cost or profitability of these IoT services. The obvious parallel is 5G, where the telcos have built networks and user numbers at huge scale but with limited returns so far.
China also leads in IoT silicon:
China also leads the world in supply of IoT chips. Counterpoint Research data shows that three Chinese companies – Quectel, Fibocom and Sunsea – accounted for half of the global mobile IoT module market in Q3. The no. 5 supplier is China Mobile, which has developed two types of RISC-V chips, and has shipped more than 100 million IoT chips. It has also sold more than 30 million OneOS operating system terminals.
With the expansion of 5G coverage, China is set to expand its IoT industry that covers chips, modules, terminals, software, platform and service. Meanwhile, its NB-IoT has been applied for smart metering, sensing, tracking and smart agriculture.
References: