Author: Alan Weissberger
Dell’Oro Worldwide Wireless LAN market at new high in 2Q-2022; IDC reports 20.4% annual growth for enterprise segment
1. According to Dell’Oro Group’s Wireless LAN Quarterly Report, the Wireless LAN market reached a new high in the second quarter, eclipsing $2 Billion, with HPE Aruba and Juniper Mist overcoming supply constraints to contribute over two thirds of the shipment growth outside China. Enterprises saw a 10 percent increase in average prices compared to last year, boosting manufacturers’ revenues and helping to defray additional costs.
“HPE and Juniper really pulled rabbits out of their hats this quarter ̶ Aruba and Mist represent the majority of the growth in units shipped outside China,” says Siân Morgan, Wireless LAN Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “It’s like a game of whack-a-mole for the manufacturers. They’ll get their hands on one particular access point component and then another shortage will pop up. We’re expecting shipments to be lumpy through the next few quarters.”
Cisco has promised shipments ‘en masse’ for enterprises, and all of the manufacturers are busy finding creative solutions: redesigning products, using brokerage firms, or bypassing component distributors.
“Wireless LAN solutions have also become more expensive for enterprises. It’s very rare to see such a long stretch of quarters with year-over-year price increases. It’s a combination of higher-end products being available, including the new Wi-Fi 6E technology, as well as a general move by the manufacturers to cover their escalating costs. Looking ahead we have to ask ourselves how long the market will bear these higher prices,” added Morgan.
Additional highlights from the 2Q 2022 Wireless LAN Quarterly Report:
- The Wireless LAN market saw two distinct phenomena driving the growth: one in China, and another one in the markets outside China.
- In light of the China lockdowns, the Wireless LAN market in China showed surprising strength with both Huawei and H3C pulling in strong quarters.
- Wi-Fi 6E shipments accelerated this quarter, as another half dozen vendors started shipping products supporting the new 6 GHz band. However, now in its fourth quarter of product availability, Wi-Fi 6E is lagging the adoption rate of the prior two generations of Wi-Fi.
- Revenue from public cloud-managed APs has outpaced the market. The cloud-managed AP business is still dominated by Cisco – although this quarter, Juniper grabbed an outsized market share in cloud-managed Wireless LAN.
Sian wrote in an email to this author, “It is difficult to judge changes in market share based on one or two quarters, given that supply constraints are making shipment volumes choppy. To understand how the market is unfolding it is useful to look at market share based on trailing four-quarter averages, which are shown in the chart below.
Dell’Oro note earlier this year that supply chain issues increased vendor backlogs by up to 15-times normal levels. “Many enterprises have planned network upgrades and the popular connection is Wi-Fi. The trouble is getting it. Several manufacturers announced that components from second and third-tier suppliers became the bottleneck in 1Q22,” said Tam Dell’Oro, Founder, CEO and Wireless LAN Analyst. “Supply constraints have resulted in highly volatile quarterly performance vendor-to-vendor depending on whether or not they have all the components. For example, sales may be up 20 percent in one quarter and down 20 percent the next. Another item, which could potentially cause delays, that we are keeping our eye on are the contract negotiations between the west coast dockworkers union and the Maritime Association,” added Dell’Oro.
The Dell’Oro Group Wireless LAN Quarterly Report offers complete, in-depth coverage of the Enterprise Outdoor and Indoor markets, Wireless LAN Controllers with tables containing manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and unit shipments by the following wireless standards: 802.11ax (Wi-Fi 6 and 6E [6 GHz]), 802.11ac (Wi-Fi 5) Wave 1 vs. Wave 2, and historic IEEE 802.11 standards. The Enterprise market is portrayed by Public Cloud vs. Premises and Private Cloud deployments, as well as by ten Vertical markets and by Customer Size. To purchase these reports, please contact us by email at [email protected].
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
2. IDC reports that the enterprise segment of the worldwide wireless local area network (WLAN) market continued its strong growth in the second quarter of 2022 (2Q22), increasing 20.4% year over year to $2.1 billion. That’s according to the IDC report: “Worldwide Quarterly Wireless LAN Tracker.”
The 20.4% annualized growth builds on the enterprise WLAN market growing 17.1% year over year in the first quarter of 2022. In the first half of 2022, the enterprise WLAN market has grown 18.4% compared to the first half of 2021. Growth in the enterprise WLAN market continues to be driven by the latest Wi-Fi standard, known as Wi-Fi 6 or 802.11ax. Wi-Fi 6 access points (AP) made up 76.5% of the revenues in the Dependent AP segment and accounted for 62.7% of unit shipments within the segment. Wi-Fi 5 products, also known as 802.11ac, made up the remaining balance of Dependent AP sales.
The consumer segment of the WLAN market declined 3.5% year over year in 2Q22, with the quarter’s unit shipments remaining relatively flat at 0.6% growth compared to the first quarter of 2022. Adoption of Wi-Fi 6 continues in the consumer segment of the WLAN market too: In 2Q22, Wi-Fi 6 made up 33.5% of the market’s revenues.
“The enterprise WLAN market continues to grow at a rapid clip, emphasizing the importance of wireless technology in the network and digital transformation goals of organizations across the globe,” said Brandon Butler, research manager, Enterprise Networks at IDC. “The enterprise WLAN market is not immune to challenges however, with the supply chain disruptions and component shortages being notable examples. But strong demand for wireless refreshes to Wi-Fi 6 – and increasingly to Wi-Fi 6E – is buoying the market and leading to strong growth rates.”
The enterprise WLAN market had mixed results across the globe. In the United States, the market increased 15.7% annually, while in Latin America the market grew 47.7% from a year earlier. In Canada the market declined 1.6%. In Western Europe, the market increased 45.4%, but in Central and Eastern Europe, the market declined 20.6%. Within Central and Eastern Europe, Russia’s market declined 73.2% as the Russia-Ukraine war rages on. In the Middle East & Africa, the market rose 23.2%. In the Asia/Pacific region, excluding Japan and China, the market rose 26.5%, while in the People’s Republic of China the market increased 8.7% year over year. In Japan the market rose 6.2%.
Vendor highlights (note that Juniper Mist is NOT mentioned by IDC as a leading wireless LAN vendor):
- Cisco’s enterprise WLAN revenues increased 19.3% year over year in 2Q22 to $792.0 million, giving the company market share of 37.7%, compared to market share of 41.5% in the previous quarter, 1Q22.
- HPE-Aruba revenues rose 48.6% year over year in 2Q22, giving the company market share of 14.9%, down from 16.5% in the first quarter.
- Ubiquiti enterprise WLAN revenues increased 10.5% year over year in 2Q22, giving the company 7.9% market share in the quarter, up from 7.1% in 1Q22.
- Huawei enterprise WLAN revenues rose 20.0% year over year in 2Q22, giving the company 8.5% market share, up from 4.6% market share in the previous quarter.
- H3C revenues increased 16.4% year over year in 2Q22, giving the company market share of 4.6%, up from 4.3% in 1Q22.
The IDC Worldwide Quarterly Wireless LAN Tracker provides total market size and vendor share data in an easy-to-use Excel Pivot Table format. The geographic coverage includes nine major regions (USA, Canada, Latin America, People’s Republic of China, Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan & China), Japan, Western Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, and Middle East and Africa) and 60 countries. The WLAN market is further segmented by product class, product type, product, standard, and location. Measurement for the WLAN market is provided in vendor revenue, value, and unit shipments.
About IDC Trackers:
IDC Tracker products provide accurate and timely market size, vendor share, and forecasts for hundreds of technology markets from more than 100 countries around the globe. Using proprietary tools and research processes, IDC’s Trackers are updated on a semiannual, quarterly, and monthly basis. Tracker results are delivered to clients in user-friendly Excel deliverables and on-line query tools.
References:
HPE Aruba and Juniper Mist Navigate Component Shortages to Gain Share, According to Dell’Oro Group
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS49663322
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=IDC_P23464
T-Mobile sells Sprint wireline business to Cogent for $1
T-Mobile will sell its wireline business, acquired from Sprint, to Cogent Communications Holdings Inc for $1, while taking a $1 billion charge on the transaction. The deal includes a $700 million contract under which Cogent will provide transit services to T-Mobile for 4-1/2 years after the deal closes. Cogent and T-Mobile expect to close the deal in or prior to December 2023.
T-Mobile has been turning its attention away from the wireline business that includes assets from its $26 billion acquisition of Sprint Corp in 2020. The decline of Sprint’s wireline business has been astounding to this author. For years, Sprint was the leader in wireline technologies like X.25, Primary Rate ISDN, Frame Relay, ATM, Carrier Ethernet and MPLS. Their optical network was second to none and was used as a backbone network for many carriers, including AT&T.
The deal for the Sprint wireline assets, a unit formerly known as Sprint Global Markets Group, provides a range of services, including MPLS (Cogent plans to convert those to VPLS and WAN), DIA (dedicated Internet access) and transit, wavelength and colocation services. The unit generated roughly $560 million in revenues in 2021 and has about 1,300 employees. In North America, the unit operates approximately 19,000 long-haul route miles, 1,300 metro route miles, and some 16,800 route miles of leased dark fiber. Total wireline business revenue was $739 million last year, according to Reuters.
In the most recent earnings call, T-Mobile Chief Executive Michael Sievert said the company was no longer using Sprint infrastructure to support its wireless business and that an asset review was underway.
“We think that T-Mobile must be receiving some sort of discount on the IP transit services that they will be buying from Cogent contractually, and they will save on the costs that they’d otherwise have to keep, maintain and improve (the infrastructure),” said Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors.
For Cogent, the deal provides a U.S. long-haul network that could eventually replace its current leased network and help expand the company’s product set to consumers and enterprises.
Cogent expects its revenue base to be about $1.1 billion, or 180% of its current $600 million run rate, CEO Dave Schaeffer said on a conference call. He outlined several strategic benefits from the deal, noting it will increase its fiber footprint and boost scale in the DIA, transit, virtual private networks and colocation/data centers markets.
The deal also paves the way for Cogent to enter the North American market for wavelength sales, and compete with market leaders Lumen and Zayo. Cogent, which is also looking to enter the market for dark fiber sales, said it also stands to gain international operating licenses in India and Malaysia, where it has no presence today.
Among other benefits, Cogent will also acquire a legacy Sprint customer base of about 1,400 businesses that, it claims, fall outside Cogent’s typical customer profile.
Cogent expects to offer customers the ability to migrate from their legacy MPLS VPN solutions to modern Ethernet / VPLS or SD-WAN / DIA solutions for their corporate needs. Cogent also expects to facilitate the migration of netcentric internet access customers from the T-Mobile Wireline Business (legacy Sprint) AS1239 to Cogent’s AS174.
Cogent expects its revenue base, post-close, to be $1.1 billion, or 180% of its current $600 million run-rate. Cogent likewise expects its multi-year revenue growth post-close will be 5% to 7% annually, with targeted aggregate revenue of over $1.5 billion by 2028.
A newly formed direct subsidiary of Cogent will consummate the acquisition. Cogent does not plan to issue new debt or equity in order to finance the acquisition, and the transaction is not expected to be dilutive to Cogent’s existing stockholders. Cogent plans to maintain its current dividend per share, which is expected to continue to increase over time.
Morgan Stanley served as the financial adviser for Cogent, while Houlihan Lokey was T-Mobile’s financial adviser.
References:
https://www.cogentco.com/en/about-cogent/events/3565-cogent-investor-call
China Mobile Partners With ZTE for World’s First 5G Non Terrestrial Network Field Trial
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Separately, ZTE says they’ve produced the industry’s smallest 5G Core network product, dubbed the Mini5GC. The new Mini5GC features miniaturization, light weight, simple networking and ultra-high integration. The company states that it can well facilitate safe production, flexible adjustment of work sites, and efficient and accurate emergency rescue in mining areas.
References:
https://sdnfv.zte.com.cn/en/news/2022/2/ZTE-5G-Common-Core-Aims-to-Improve-Digital-Economy
https://www.zte.com.cn/global/products/core_network/packet_core/202003251501/5G-Common-Core
FCC to release U.S. broadband maps in November 2022
Today, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) confirmed that its first data collection window for the broadband serviceable location fabric has closed. The agency also said it is targeting November 2022 for a public release of a first draft of the new map.
“For the first time ever, we have collected extensive location-by-location data on precisely where broadband services are available, and now we are ready to get to work and start developing new and improved broadband maps,” wrote Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel in a note on Friday afternoon. This comes after FCC work over the past 18 months to update and improve their broadband maps.
What’s next for the FCC’s broadband maps:
- FCC is targeting November 2022 for release of the first draft of the map.
- The Fabric challenge process will begin in 10 days.
- The Fabric is the first-ever national dataset capturing individual locations that should have fixed broadband service availability. It is the product of integrating multiple data sources for each state and territory—in other words, hundreds of data sources. These data sources include, among other things, address records, tax assessment records, imagery and building footprints, Census data, land use records, parcel boundaries, and geo-spatial road and street data. Our old broadband maps, in contrast, lacked any of this location-specific information.
- Broadband providers reported their own availability data to the locations identified in the Fabric.
- The FCC is continually working to improve our Fabric through additional data sources, such as LIDAR data and new satellite and aerial imagery sources, as they become available and through our upcoming challenge processes.
- States, local governments, Tribal governments, and providers can now access the initial Fabric data, and, in 10 days we will open up a window for them to challenge this data.
In a public notice, the FCC set some parameters for that process, writing: “We remind governments, service providers, and other entities and organizations planning to submit challenges that the Fabric is intended to identify BSLs as defined by the Commission, which will not necessarily include all structures at a particular location or parcel.” The FCC will host a webinar on September 7, at 2 p.m. ET, “to assist state, local, and Tribal governments, service providers, and other entities who intend to submit bulk challenges, or proposed corrections, to the location data in the Fabric,” it said.
Once the maps are released, FCC will open a process for the public and other stakeholders to make challenges directly through the map interface.
Looking ahead, there’s one more important thing to note about the new maps. When the first draft is released, it will provide a far more accurate picture of broadband availability in the United States than our old maps ever did. That’s worth celebrating. But our work will in no way be done. That’s because these maps are iterative. They are designed to updated, refined, and improved over time.
Broadband providers are constantly updating and expanding their networks. We have set up a process to make sure our maps will reflect these changes and yield more precise data over time. We have also built a process in which state, local and Tribal governments, other third parties and, perhaps most importantly, consumers, will be able to give us feedback on the maps and help us continually improve and refine the data we receive from providers. All of this will require persistent effort—from the agency, providers, and other stakeholders. The Commission is committed to doing this hard work and keeping the public informed of our efforts every step of the way.
Here’s the most current broadband map for Santa Clara County, CA (oven referred to as Silicon Valley and previously as the Valley of Hearts Delight):
References:
https://www.fcc.gov/news-events/notes/2022/09/02/another-step-toward-better-broadband-maps
https://www.fcc.gov/document/start-bulk-fabric-challenge-process-announced
Carrier Ethernet Market Assessment and MEF 3.0 Certification
Disclaimer: This is an update to our August 24, 2022 post that includes a new report on the Global Carrier Ethernet Market and the status of MEF 3.0 certification for Carrier Ethernet and SD-WAN.
Chart from: https://reportsexpress.com/carrier-ethernet-services-market-report-4/
To date, 80 global service and technology providers now offer MEF 3.0-certified Carrier Ethernet (CE) and SD-WAN solutions. In addition, more than 8,000 professionals from 500+ companies around the globe have earned MEF professional certifications in Carrier Ethernet, SD-WAN, and SDN/NFV. Five of the six top companies ranked on Vertical Systems Group’s 2021 U.S. Carrier Managed SD-WAN Leaderboard—AT&T, Comcast Business, Verizon, Lumen, and Windstream—have achieved MEF 3.0 SD-WAN certification (see complete list below), and each of these providers employs professionals with MEF-SDCP training and certification.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..Lumen Technologies ranked first in Vertical Systems Group’s mid-year US Carrier Ethernet Leaderboard. VSG’s rank order is based on retail port share as of June 30, 2022: Lumen, AT&T, Spectrum Enterprise, Verizon, Comcast Business and Cox Business. To qualify for a rank on this LEADERBOARD, network providers must have four percent (4%) or more of the U.S. retail Ethernet services market. VSG analyzes Ethernet port share based on six service segments that service providers deliver to enterprise customers: Ethernet DIA (Dedicated Internet Access), E-Access to IP/MPLS VPN, Ethernet Private Lines, Ethernet Virtual Private Lines, Metro LAN and WAN VPLS (Virtual Private LAN service).
Challenge Tier citations were attained by the following six companies (in alphabetical order): Altice USA, Cogent, Frontier, GTT, Windstream and Zayo. The Challenge Tier includes providers with between 1% and 4% share of the U.S. retail Ethernet market.
“Share rankings on the U.S. Ethernet LEADERBOARD remain unchanged for the first half of 2022, however a shakeup is possible by the end of the year,” said Rick Malone, principal of Vertical Systems Group. “Escalating requirements for Gigabit Ethernet services – and particularly 100+Gbps – are spurring capacity upgrades and intensifying competition among fiber-based providers.”
Research Highlights:
- Lumen continues to hold the top rank on the Mid-2022 U.S. Ethernet LEADERBOARD based on port share.
- Our latest Ethernet research shows that port shares are tightening between several of the market leading providers.
- Dedicated Internet/Cloud Access (DIA) was the fastest growing Ethernet service for the first half of 2022 and is on pace to be the largest Ethernet service overall by year-end based on billable U.S. customer installations. Primary Ethernet DIA applications are connectivity for Cloud services and Managed SD-WANs.
- Market demand is rising for Ethernet services ranging up to 100+ Gbps. Customers requiring higher bandwidth connectivity are also evaluating alternatives to Ethernet, including Wavelength and Dark Fiber services.
- Ethernet service providers continue to grapple with supply chain challenges, including lengthy lead times and shortages of the supplies necessary for customer deployments and backbone network operations.
- Lumen and Verizon are the only LEADERBOARD companies with MEF 3.0 Carrier Ethernet (CE) certification.
The Market Player tier includes all providers with port share below 1%. Companies in the Market Player tier include the following providers (in alphabetical order): ACD, AireSpring, Alaska Communications, Alta Fiber, American Telesis, Arelion, Armstrong Business Solutions, Astound Business, Breezeline, BT Global Services, Centracom, Consolidated Communications, Conterra, Crown Castle, Douglas Fast Net, DQE Communications, ExteNet Systems, Fatbeam, FiberLight, First Digital, FirstLight, Flo Networks, Fusion Connect, Global Cloud Xchange, Great Plains Communications, Hunter Communications, Intelsat, Logix Fiber Networks, LS Networks, MetTel, Midco, Momentum Telecom, NTT, Orange Business, Pilot Fiber, PS Lightwave, Ritter Communications, Segra, Shentel Business, Silver Star Telecom, Sparklight Business, Syringa, T-Mobile, Tata, TDS Telecom, TPx, Unite Private Networks, Uniti, US Signal, WOW!Business, Ziply Fiber and other companies selling retail Ethernet services in the U.S. market.
Market shares are measured based on the number of billable retail customer ports installed. Vertical Systems Group’s Ethernet port share analysis includes six service segments based on what service providers are offering and enterprise customers are purchasing as follows: Ethernet DIA (Dedicated Internet Access), E-Access to IP/MPLS VPN, Ethernet Private Lines, Ethernet Virtual Private Lines, Metro LAN, and WAN VPLS.
@Ethernet is available now exclusively by subscription to an ENS Research Program. Research data includes the market share detail that powers the U.S. and Global Provider Carrier Ethernet Services LEADERBOARD results. Contact us for more information and pricing.
Vertical Systems Group: Mid-2022 U.S. Carrier Ethernet Leaders; Change is Coming
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2022/08/30/2506924/0/en/MEF-3-0-Certification-Growth-Fueled-by-Acceleration-of-Global-Enterprise-Digital-Transformation.html
5G Optical Transceiver Market Trends and Technologies
by Fayre Fan (edited by Alan J Weissberger)
Introduction:
The fiber optic transceiver is the core component of optical communications. It is used to realize optical-to-electrical conversion. The transmitter converts the electrical signal into an optical signal, while the receiver does the reverse – it converts the optical signal into an electrical signal.
Increasingly, fiber optics is being used for the transport of 5G signals to and from the edge of the carrier’s wide area network. Optical transceivers are the basic component of 5G backhaul, midhaul and fronthaul. Their cost accounts for 50%~70% of the total 5G network costs.
Low cost is the key appeal of the 5G optical transceivers. The industry has carried out extensive research on 5G optical module technology, and currently, there are many solutions.
Increasing demands for 5G transceivers: low cost is the key to 5G optical module:
The growth of optical modules in the 5G network mainly comes from three factors:
- More base stations are needed in the high-frequency band.
- Larger bandwidth is required for high-speed rates.
- More connections are required for added midhaul transmission links.
Global top suppliers of 5G base stations include Huawei (China), Ericson (Sweden), Nokia (Finland), ZTE (China), and Samsung (Korea). China is the largest 5G market, which has captured about 74% of the market, followed by Korea and Europe.
The development of the global 5G network market stimulates the increasing demand for 5G optical transceivers. According to the forecast data from Lightcounting, the global market share of 5G fronthaul transceivers will reach 657/632/593 million dollars in 2022~2024. 5G midhaul and backhaul transceivers will reach 242/245/247 million dollars respectively. Therefore, reducing cost is a key objective of 5G transceiver development. Here’s an illustration of backhaul, midhaul and fronthaul:
5G fronthaul -demand for 25G BiDi transceiver:
In the 4G fronthaul network, the most commonly used transceivers are single-mode 10G duplex transceivers. 5G network has higher requirements for the data rate and optical interface of transceivers. In consideration of saving fiber resources and maintaining high-precision synchronization of uplink and downlink, the simplex bi-directional (BiDi) transceiver allowing data transmitting and receiving over one single fiber, is superior to duplex transceivers. Moreover, considering the 5G download rate is at least 10 times higher than that of the 4G network, the 25 Gbit/s data rate is also necessary for the 5G fronthaul transceivers. Taken together, 25G BiDi transceivers are needed for 5G fronthaul networks.
Optical Transceivers for 5G Front-Haul
| Data Rate | Form Type | Transmission Distance | Wavelength | Modulation Format | Transmitter & Receiver |
| 25Gbit/s | SFP28 | 70~100m | 850nm | NRZ | VCSEL+PIN |
| 25Gbit/s | SFP28 | 300m | 1310nm | NRZ | FP/DFB+PIN |
| 25Gbit/s | SFP28 | 10km | 1310nm | NRZ | DFB+PIN |
| 25Gbit/s | SFP28 BiDi | 10/15/20km | 1270/1330nm | NRZ/PAM4 | DFB+PIN/APD |
| 25Gbit/s | SFP28 | 10km | CWDM | NRZ | DFB+PIN |
| 25Gbit/s | Tunable SFP28 | 10/20km | DWDM | NRZ | EML+PIN |
| 100Gbit/s | QSFP28 | 70~100m | 850nm | NRZ | VCSELs+PINs |
| 100Gbit/s | QSFP28 | 10km | 4WDM-10 | NRZ | DFBs+PINs |
| 100Gbit/s | QSFP28 | 10km | 1310nm | PAM4/DMT | EML+PIN |
| 100Gbit/s | QSFP28 BiDi | 10km | CWDM4 | NRZ | DFBs+PINs |
5G midhaul and backhaul – demand for 50G/100G/200G/400G transceivers:
The 5G midhaul and backhaul are mainly carried through the metro access layer, convergence layer, and core layer. For the access layer, 50G/100G transceivers are commonly used. For example, 50G PAM4 transceiver is a cost-effective solution for 5G midhaul and backhaul. It is based on 25G optical components and PAM4 (Pulse Amplitude Modulation 4-level) modulation. For the convergence layer and core layer, 100G/200G/400Gb/s DWDM transceivers are mainly used. And low-cost coherent 100G/200G/400G transceivers are welcomed, which mainly use QAM (Quadrature Amplitude Modulation) modulation and DSP (Digital Signal Processing) technology.
Optical Transceivers for 5G Mid-Haul/Back-Haul
| Data Rate | Form Type | Transmission Distance | Wavelength | Modulation Format | Transmitter & Receiver |
| 25Gbit/s | SFP28 | 40km | 1310nm | NRZ | EML+APD |
| 50Gbit/s | QSFP28/SFP56 | 10km | 1310nm | PAM4 | EML/DFB+PIN |
| 50Gbit/s | QSFP28 BiDi | 10km | 1270/1330nm | PAM4 | EML/DFB+PIN |
| 50Gbit/s | QSFP28/SFP56 | 40km | 1330nm | PAM4 | EML+APD |
| 50Gbit/s | QSFP28 BiDi | 40km | 1295.56/1309.14nm | PAM4 | EML+APD |
| 100Gbit/s | QSFP28 | 10km | CWDM/LWDM | NRZ | DFBs/EMLs+PINs |
| 100Gbit/s | QSFP28 | 40km | LWDM | NRZ | EMLs+APDs |
| 100Gbit/s | QSFP28 | 10/20km | DWDM | PAM4/DMT | EMLs+PINs |
| 100/200/400Gbit/s | CFP2-DCO | 80~120km | DWDM | PM QPSK/8-QAM/16-QAM | IC-TROSA+ITLA |
| 200/400Gbit/s | OSFP/QSFP-DD | 2/10km | LWDM | PAM4 | EMLs+PINs |
Technological innovations of 5G transceivers:
Optical transceiver-related technology mainly includes packaging technology and optoelectronic components technology.
In terms of packaging technology, 5G transceivers can adopt existing mature packaging technologies. For example, since 25G BiDi has a similar optical structure to that of 10G BiDi, the common TO-CAN (transistor-outline-can) package can be used to save cost.
The most vital technological innovation aims at optoelectronic components technology. The technological innovation of optoelectronic devices mainly aims at these goals: function expansion, data rate increase, and cost reduction.
Function expansion innovation of laser chips example: industrial-grade laser chips no longer require temperature control devices, the laser chip used in the non-airtight environment no longer requires the expensive airtight package, the laser chip with a small divergence angle no longer requires an expensive non-spherical lens, anti-reflection laser chips no longer require isolators, etc. Those technologies simplify the packaging of the optical module, also providing higher reliability and lower cost.
Data rate increase innovation includes example: the 50G PAM4 optical module uses a 25G baud rate laser/detector, and an electrical chip with high linearity. Compared with the 25G NRZ (non-return to zero) optical module, it allows for higher bandwidth.
Cost reduction innovation example: coherent 100G transceiver, it reduces the cost on the premise of meeting the transmission distance requirement within 200km.
Ultimately, the key technologies of 5G optical modules are mainly reflected in the innovation of optoelectronic chips. The specific technologies include:
- Industrial temperature grade high-speed laser chip technology
- High linearity 25G baud rate DFB chip and EML chip technology
- Low-cost 25G wavelength tunable laser chip technology
- Low-cost coherent 100G/200G/400G optical transceiver technology
For example, Marvell and OE Solutions recently announced a collaboration to deliver the industry’s first production-ready 100G QSFP-DD optical modules optimized for 5G backhaul and Metro Access applications.
In conclusion, 5G optical transceivers will play a more important role in the entire optical module market compared with the 4G era. Technological innovation will be the main driver to realize the low-cost 5G optical modules.
References:
https://www.researchreportsworld.com/global-5g-base-station-sales-market-21017689
Ericsson Mobility Report: 5G subscriptions in Q2 2022 are 690 million (vs. 8.3 billion total mobile users)
According to the latest Ericsson Mobility Report, total mobile subscriptions increased by 52 million to reach 8.3 billion.
Global 5G subscriptions grew by 70 million in the second quarter of 2022, reaching 690 million in the second quarter of 2022, according to Ericsson. Despite the challenges and obstacles, 5G adoption is progressing faster than 4G (we disagree).
Ericsson’s Mobility Report also details how people are using their mobile phones, with mobile data usage increasing dramatically year-on-year. Between Q2 2021 and Q2 2022, network data traffic increased by 39%. The growth from Q1 2022 to Q2 2022 was also 8%.
Ericsson attributes the growth to increased consumption of media on mobile devices driven by faster speeds offered by 5G. Here are the report’s highlights:
•In Q2 2022, the total number of mobile subscriptions was around 8.3 billion, with a net addition of 52 million subscriptions during the quarter. Mobile broadband accounts for 86 percent of all mobile subscriptions.
• 5G subscriptions total 690 million (but in China, there are many 5G plan subscribers who can only get 4G service).
• China accounted for the most net additions during the quarter (+10 million), followed by India (+7 million) and Indonesia (+4 million).
• Global mobile subscription penetration was 106 percent. That means more than one mobile device per person!
• The number of mobile broadband subscriptions grew by about 100 million in the quarter to reach 7.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6 percent. Mobile broadband now accounts for 86 percent of all mobile subscriptions.
• The number of unique mobile subscribers is 6.1 billion. The difference between the number of subscriptions and the number of subscribers is due to inactive subscriptions, multiple device ownership and/or the optimization of subscriptions for different types of calls.
• 5G subscriptions grew by 70 million during the quarter, lifting the total to 690 million. Meanwhile, 218 communications service providers have launched commercial 5G services and 24 have launched 5G standalone (SA) networks.
• 4G subscriptions increased by 77 million to around 5 billion, representing 60 percent of all mobile subscriptions, while WCDMA/HSPA subscriptions declined by 41 million. GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions dropped by 48 million during the quarter, and other technologies3 decreased by about 6 million.
Mobile network data traffic grew 39 percent between Q2 2021 and Q2 2022 and reached 100ExaBytes per month. The quarter-on-quarter mobile network data traffic growth between Q1 2022 and Q2 2022 was 8 percent. Total monthly global mobile network data traffic reached 100EB. Over the long term, traffic5 growth is driven by both the rising number of smartphone subscriptions and an increasing average data volume per subscription, fueled primarily by increased viewing of video content. There are large differences in traffic levels between markets, regions and service providers.
References:
https://www.ericsson.com/en/reports-and-papers/mobility-report
Orange Telco Cloud to use Equinix Bare Metal to deliver virtual services with <10 ms latency
Orange and Equinix announced today a collaboration to expand the Orange Telco Cloud footprint, using Equinix’s Bare Metal as a Service capability—Equinix Metal®—to speed the deployment of Orange’s New Generation International Network.
This new business model enables Orange to provide business and wholesale customers with powerful on-demand Telco Cloud Points of Presence (PoPs), delivering essential services such as SD-WAN, CDN, 5G roaming and voice services, with an expected latency below ~10 milliseconds.
Three locations will be deployed by the end of this year: Amsterdam, Madrid and Seattle.
The advancement of network-based services, largely driven by evolving customer requirements around speed of deployment and flexibility, is compelling network providers to deploy a new class of connectivity and infrastructure platform. Indeed, the Equinix 2022 Global Tech Trends Survey found 72% of companies surveyed around the world are planning to expand in the next 12 months, despite economic concerns and supply chain challenges—and they’re relying on digital strategies to achieve that.
By integrating with Equinix’s automated dedicated Bare Metal (see image below) as a Service located in proximity to its existing networks at Equinix, Orange can quickly meet customer demand for growth, deploying in weeks from inception (instead of months).
Equinix Metal infrastructure (Image source: Equinix)
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Leveraging Equinix Metal, Orange accelerates its next-generation services without the up-front CAPEX or complexities of global supply chains, while retaining full choice and control over IT infrastructure and digital transformation projects. This approach to cleaner energy consumption was also determinant for Orange to choose to partner with Equinix, in line with its 2040 carbon neutral objective, on top of its strategy to avoid energy consumption where there is no customer demand.
“We are delighted to partner with Equinix to deploy Orange Telco Cloud PoPs technology on top of Equinix Metal,” explained Jean-Luc Vuillemin, Executive Vice President, International Networks at Orange. “By embracing an ‘as a service’ infrastructure model and focusing investment in our SDN and VNF capabilities, Orange can provide a fully flexible and elastic solution to customers, speed up the deployment of our planned 100 Telco Cloud PoPs, and quickly adapt capacity to meet demand. This confirms Orange’s position as a trusted infrastructure partner, optimizing application performance with secured and consistent connectivity, regardless of end user location, and supporting cloud management and transformation.”
Through its Telco Cloud Platform, Orange uniquely provides customers with end-to-end optimized levels of performance, security and flexibility. Powered by industry-leading innovation in virtualized network functions and software-defined networks (SDN), Orange already has 40 SDN PoPs around the world and is targeted to reach 100+ “Telco Cloud PoPs” by 2024 as part of its eNGINe (New Generation International Network) transformation program. Each Telco Cloud PoP can host virtualized network service functions such as voice, 5G, CDN, SD-WAN or Security Services, as well as connect customers to key content and cloud service providers. With its Telco Cloud PoP architecture, Orange’s customers can access and manage applications in the cloud with reliable, fast connectivity, and choose from an expanded portfolio with on-demand and adapted services.
“We have a rich 20-year history of collaboration with Orange and are pleased to see them accelerate innovation for their customers by becoming the first provider to combine their extensive global network footprint at Equinix with the new possibilities provided by our investments in automated digital infrastructure capabilities. We’re excited to see them expand this offering into additional markets in 2023,” said Zachary Smith, Global Head of Edge Infrastructure Services at Equinix.
Iiro Stubin, principal product manager for Equinix Metal, told Light Reading that Equinix Metal provides pre-installed storage at Equinix locations that is ready for customers to access when additional network capacity is required. Equinix Metal also integrates with a library of application programming interfaces (APIs) for “an element of automation,” said Stubin. “That’s kind of been in the heart of our service portfolio to build more data center locations into different regions, where our telco customers can then expand and we’ve been working with Orange very closely to let them expand their PoPs globally with us,” Stubin added.
Orange EVP Jean-Louis Le Roux told Light Reading that about 20 of the operator’s existing 40 Telco Cloud points of presence (PoPs) are deployed in collaboration with Equinix but utilize Orange’s hardware. Le Roux said the three new PoPs will rely on Equinix hardware instead of deploying Orange’s own compute and storage hardware. “We keep control because on top of this hardware, we deploy our own SDN [software defined network] stack. So we keep control over our digital transformation. This elasticity is really useful for us; we can easily add or remove a compute server or storage server, really following the customer activity.”
Le Roux added that a “pay-as-you-grow” model provides Orange with the ability to deploy storage for its customers without upfront capital expenses or the worry of navigating a troublesome supply chain.
Orange said the partnership with Equinix will provide the network operator with the ability to “meet customer demand for growth” in weeks versus months.
Courtney Munroe, Vice President for Telecommunications Research at IDC commented:
“This partnership between Orange and Equinix is a smart move enabling Orange to enhance its existing platform and its ability to facilitate reliable, agile digital capabilities for its customers—all while being able to more quickly meet customer demand by using Equinix Metal. IDC research shows that enterprises look to Telcos and digital infrastructure providers as key partners for hybrid IT infrastructure and cloud networking requirements. Furthermore, the enhanced Telco Cloud Platform will improve Orange’s operational efficiency, and flexibility, and most importantly will allow it to offer enhanced low latency performance and on-demand requirements for enterprises around the world.”
About Equinix:
Since its founding in 1998, Equinix has helped the world’s networks connect and deploy services for their customers. Today, digital leaders like Orange are looking to move even faster. This has fueled Equinix’s strategy to help unlock value from their existing network presence in its data centers, with an as a Service model that delivers choice and control of dedicated infrastructure, powered by clean and renewable energy.
Equinix Metal® provides developer-friendly physical compute, storage and networking infrastructure services to help digital leaders move faster and more easily access Equinix’s unique ecosystem of thousands of enterprises, clouds, services and networks.
About Orange:
Orange is one of the world’s leading telecommunications operators with sales of 42.5 billion Euros in 2021 and 137,000 employees worldwide at 30 June 2022, including 76,000 employees in France. The Group has a total customer base of 282 million customers worldwide at 30 June 2022, including 236 million mobile customers and 24 million fixed broadband customers. The Group is present in 26 countries. Orange is also a leading provider of global IT and telecommunication services to multinational companies under the brand Orange Business Services. In December 2019, the Group presented its “Engage 2025” strategic plan, which, guided by social and environmental accountability, aims to reinvent its operator model. While accelerating in growth areas and placing data and AI at the heart of its innovation model, the Group will be an attractive and responsible employer, adapted to emerging professions.
References:
Corning to Build New Fiber Optic Plant in Phoenix, AZ for AT&T Fiber Network Expansion
Corning will build a new fiber optical cable manufacturing plant near Phoenix, AZ that will primarily supply AT&T’s continuing fiber optic network buildout. The new facility, expected to open in 2024, will add about 250 jobs to Corning’s payroll.
“At Corning, our investments in capacity are always based on strong customer commitments, and that’s the case here, with a long-term commitment from AT&T,” said John McGirr, the SVP and GM of Corning’s optical fiber and cable group. “As for who it will serve: This expansion will serve AT&T as well as the broader industry by adding capacity during a time of record demand.”
AT&T, in its recent quarterly earnings update, disclosed that it now has 6.59 million fiber-connected customers and marked its tenth straight quarter with more than 200,000 fiber net adds. AT&T says it’s on pace to cover more than 30 million locations with fiber by the end of 2025.
“This investment is a significant step forward for our country and building world-class broadband networks that will help narrow the nation’s digital divide,” said AT&T Chief Executive Officer John Stankey. “This new facility will provide additional optical cable capacity to meet the record demand the industry is seeing for fast, reliable connectivity. We are also working with Corning to create training programs to equip the next generation of technicians with the skills to build the networks that will expand high-speed internet access to millions of Americans.”
Separately, AT&T announced today that it is deploying fiber internet service to the Mesa, Arizona area, with service expected to be available to Mesa residents in 2023.
Corning said the Gilbert site is part of a $500 million expansion plan for optical fiber and cable manufacturing that started in 2020, nearly doubling the company’s capacity. Optical communications has been one of Corning’s fastest-growing businesses. In the June quarter, optical sales grew 22% from the year-ago quarter to $1.3 billion, about 36% of the specialty glass company’s total sales in the period.
Corning CEO Wendell Weeks said in an interview that the decision to add the new facility largely reflects a commitment from AT&T to continue to source fiber optic cable and systems from Corning. “They are the keystone of this investment,” Weeks said.
AT&T CEO John Stankey noted in an interview that his company has “a very long relationship with Corning that goes back many years,” and now supplies all of the fiber that the company deploys to home and businesses.
AT&T now offers fiber optic service in more than 100 U.S. metro areas, reaching a potential audience of more than 18 million homes.
Stankey notes that the company has plans to reach more than 30 million homes by 2025. The company will add service in Mesa, Ariz., close to the new facility, starting in 2023.
“Ultimately everything is moving to one fiber-fed infrastructure to be able to deal with the demand equation,” said AT&T CEO John Stankey, adding the trends are “all rooted by massively increasing amount of consumption.”
Stankey said that data traffic is expected to grow five times its current level over the next five years. “There needs to be infrastructure to deal with that,” Stankey said.
Although AT&T and Corning didn’t disclose the details of their arrangement, Stankey said that the company has made long-term commitments to Corning, “as we do with other major component providers” that covers pricing, volume and other terms.
At an event in Arizona on Tuesday to announce the new facility, Weeks and Stankey will be joined by U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. Both Weeks and Stankey pointed to the Infrastructure and Investment Act, a measure signed into law last year which includes $65 billion for broadband deployment, as a boost to their confidence in expanding capacity.
“In order to have a foundation to invest, you need consistent and stable policy going forward,” Stankey said. The AT&T CEO said that the Biden Administration has recognized that there is a significant percentage of the U.S. population that hasn’t been effectively served by broadband–and that “the infrastructure act is intended to address that.”
Weeks notes that this is Corning’s seventh fiber optic cable manufacturing facility, and stressed that it is the Westernmost location. AT&T CEO Stankey added that the bulky nature of fiber optic cable makes proximity to manufacturing an important factor. Shipping fiber optic cables around the country is costly.
The new plant is “a great step” in that direction but the supply chain is “large and complex,” and there are many other components to look at as well, said Jeff Luong, President – Broadband Access & Adoption, AT&T.
Corning and AT&T have also expanded the Fiber Optic Training Program that kicked off four months ago in North Carolina, following a joint investment in optical cable manufacturing there. It’s not clear what the cost of the training is or how long it takes to become a fully credentialed fiber installer. The companies said the initial class is currently underway in North Carolina and the program aims to train 50,000 American workers over the next five years. The company said the industry needs another 850,000 workers by the end of the 2025 to carry out planned expansion and maintenance of fiber optic networks.
References:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/corning-fiber-optic-plant-arizona-51661818036
FCC Auction 108 (2.5 GHz) ends with total proceeds << than expected; T-Mobile expected to be #1 spectrum buyer
The FCC’s 2.5 GHz auction (FCC Auction 108) ended Monday, after 73 rounds, reaching net proceeds of only $427.8 million (M). The FCC found winning bidders for 7,872 of the 8,017 licenses offered. The FCC holds the remaining 145 licenses. Proceeds were much less than anticipated before the auction. Pre-auction estimates had run as high as $3B, or in the range of $0.10 to $0.20 per MHz-POP. In reality, the end result was just $427.8M in aggregate proceeds, and less than two cents per MHz-POP on average.
“After some extended bidding in Guam today, Auction 108 finally came to an end,” wrote Sasha Javid, BitPath chief operating officer. “While the end of this auction should not be a surprise for those following activity on Friday, it certainly ended faster than I expected just a week ago.”
With no assignment phase, Javid predicted the FCC will issue a closing public notice in about a week, with details on where each bidder won licenses. T-Mobile was expected to be the dominant bidder as it fills in gaps in the 2.5 GHz coverage it’s using to offer 5G. AT&T, Verizon and Dish Network qualified to bid but weren’t expected to acquire many licenses (see Craig Moffett’s comments below).
New Street analysts significantly downgraded projections for the auction as it unfolded, from $3.4 billion, to less than $452 million in its latest projection. New Street’s Phillip Burnett told investors Sunday Guam Telephone Authority was likely the company making a push for the license there. The authority owns citizens broadband radio service and high-band licenses “but lacks a powerful mid-band license” since “no C-Band or 3.45GHz licenses were offered for Guam,” he said. “We still assume T-Mobile won essentially all the licenses,” Burnett said in a Monday note. The auction translated to just 2 cents/MHz POP, 8 cents excluding the areas where T-Mobile is already operating, he said: “This will make it the cheapest of the 5G upper mid-band auctions at the FCC to date, both in terms of unit and aggregate prices. However, given how odd these licenses were, we wouldn’t expect to see the auction used as a marker for mid-band values going forward.”
Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson wrote:
While we won’t know for sure who “won” the licenses in question for another week or so, it is universally assumed that T-Mobile was far and away the auction’s principal buyer. They are the only U.S. company that uses 2.5 GHz spectrum (2.5 GHz is the backbone spectrum band of their 5G network), and the licenses at auction were best seen as the “holes in the Swiss cheese” of T-Mobile’s otherwise national 2.5 GHz footprint. There was a great deal of spectrum here for sale, but it wasn’t geographically contiguous, and thus it would be difficult for anyone other than T-Mobile to use it. Nor should one expect spectrum speculators to have played a large role; after all, if there is but one true exit – i.e., to sell to T-Mobile – then bidding more than T-Mobile was willing to pay would seem an ill-advised strategy. Usually, we refrain from using the term “winner” when discussing auction results.
Winning, after all, depends on price paid. In this case, however, there can be little argument that T-Mobile is the auction’s big winner (assuming, again, that it was indeed T-Mobile that bought almost everything here). They will have significantly expanded their already-large spectrum advantage versus Verizon and AT&T and they will have done so at a much lower price than had been expected. Remember that not only does T-Mobile enjoy a spectrum quantity advantage versus Verizon and AT&T– they already had more mid-band spectrum than either VZ or T, and now they will have significantly augmented their already prodigious holdings – but they also have a spectrum quality advantage, inasmuch as 2.5 GHz spectrum propagates better than the 3.7 GHz C-Band spectrum used for 5G by Verizon and AT&T, and therefore promises better coverage and fewer dead spots with less required capital spending for density/coverage.
T-Mobile just a few weeks ago invested about $3.5B in low frequency spectrum, allocating about the same amount of capital many had expected them to spend on Auction 108. But their low (600 MHz) frequency spectrum purchase – done at what we assume is $2.53 per MHz-POP in a two-part acquisition from private equity owners – is for spectrum they were already leasing, so it represents a direct substitution of capital for opex without changing the amount of spectrum employed in their network. Margins should be higher, as what was previously leased is now owned. And, happily, they got the deal done just before the Inflation Reduction Act eliminated the cash tax shield from spectrum purchases as it relates to the 15% minimum corporate tax rate on future spectrum purchases.
If there is one additional takeaway here, it is the reminder that spectrum is NOT a commodity, where prices inherently reflect some immutable “intrinsic value.” Instead, they are highly volatile, reflecting much more the dynamics of supply and demand for each individual spectrum band at any given moment, factoring in not just how much different carriers might want the spectrum, but also what their balance sheets will bear.
Our long-term tracking of spectrum transactions, sorted into low-band, mid-band, upper mid-band, and millimeter wave cohorts, now updated to include both Auction 108 and T-Mobile’s private market transactions for 600 MHz spectrum, tells the tale:
References:
https://www.fcc.gov/document/auction-108-25-ghz-band-qualified-bidders