Author: Alan Weissberger
AT&T’s fiber business grows along with FWA “Internet Air” in Q4-2023
AT&T added 273,000 residential fiber subs in Q4, down slightly from year-ago adds of +280,000 and a gain of +296,000 in the prior quarter. AT&T ended 2023 with 8.3 million fiber subs. The U.S. based carrier added about 400,000 fiber locations in Q4, extending that reach to 21.1 million. AT&T remains committed to expanding its fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) footprint to 30 million locations by 2025, Stankey said.
Fiber-related revenues hit $1.67 billion, up from $1.37 billion in the year-ago quarter. Fiber average revenue per user (ARPU) reached $68.50, up from $64.82 a year earlier.
AT&T says it has the nation’s largest fiber network, which now passes 26 million+ consumer and business locations; on track to pass 30 million+ locations with fiber by the end of 2025.
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AT&T’s new fixed wireless access (FWA) service dubbed “Internet Air” gained ground in the fourth quarter of 2023. Internet Air added 67,000 subscribers in Q4 of 2023, extending its total to 93,000. Those quarterly FWA subscriber additions were a “surprise,” New Street Research analyst Jonathan Chaplin said in a research note issued after AT&T posted earnings. Yet they are way below Verizon’s FWA numbers which came in at 375,000 FWA subs added in the Q4 of 2023.
However, AT&T’s FWA offering will remain a limited and targeted product in the operator’s home broadband arsenal. “I don’t expect that we are going to be pushing the [Internet Air] product the same way that some others in the market are pushing it today,” AT&T CEO John Stankey said on today’s earnings call. “We made a conscious choice as a company that we want to dedicate capital to invest in fiber, which we believe is a more sustainable long-term means to deal with stationary and fixed broadband needs.”
AT&T will continue to use Internet Air on a selective basis, relying on it as an alternative for customers transitioning off of the telco’s aging copper plant, in pockets of some markets where AT&T offers fiber service, as well as markets where AT&T has no existing wireline business.
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AT&T claims it has the largest and most reliable wireless network in North America. Its mid-band 5G spectrum now covers 210 million+ people, achieving its end-of-year targets. It expects wireless service revenue growth in the 3% range for 2024.
Stankey said 2024 will be the “proving year” for the Gigapower joint venture with BlackRock that will initially bring open access fiber networks to about 1.5 million locations outside of AT&T’s legacy wireline footprint. Initial Gigapower markets include Las Vegas, three cities in Arizona (Mesa, Chandler and Gilbert), parts of northeastern Pennsylvania (including Wilkes-Barre and Scranton) and segments of Alabama and Florida.
AT&T also said that it now has a FirstNet customer base consisting of more than 5.5 million connections.
“We accomplished exactly what we said we would in 2023, delivering sustainable growth and consistent business performance, resulting in full-year free cash flow of $16.8 billion, ahead of our raised guidance. As we advance our lead in converged connectivity, we will continue to scale our best-in-class 5G and fiber networks to meet customers’ growing demand for seamless, ubiquitous broadband, and drive durable growth for shareholders,” said CEO John Stankey.
References:
https://about.att.com/story/2024/q4-earnings-2023.html
https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/keicd3et/ (4Q 2023 earnings call)
https://investors.att.com/news-and-events/events-and-presentations
https://www.lightreading.com/fixed-wireless-access/at-t-nears-100k-internet-air-subs
AT&T and BlackRock’s Gigapower fiber JV may alter the U.S. broadband landscape
Telecom layoffs continue unabated as AT&T leads the pack – a growth engine with only 1% YoY growth?
NTT advert in WSJ: Why O-RAN Will Change Everything; AT&T selects Ericsson for its O-RAN
Ericsson expects continuing network equipment sales challenges in 2024
Ericsson expects challenges in the mobile-network industry to continue this year as customers remain cautious about spending and as the investment pace normalizes in its key Indian market. The Swedish telecommunications-equipment company said sales in its network equipment unit fell 23% in the fourth quarter, with sales momentum in India slowing, while North America had a 50% drop in sales.
Ericsson, the world’s biggest western vendor of 5G network equipment, had a 10% drop in sales on a constant-currency basis in 2023, despite a renewed focus on cost cutting. Reported revenues fell 3%, to 263.4 billion Swedish kronor (US$25.2 billion), and Ericsson’s closely monitored gross margin shrank from 41.7% to 38.6%. After impairment charges affecting Vonage, the VoIP software company Ericsson bought for $6.2 billion in July 2022, the Swedish vendor went from a SEK19.1 billion ($1.8 billion) net profit the year before to a SEK26.1 billion ($2.5 billion) loss.
Ericsson saw a shift in its business mix through 2023 from higher-margin 5G work in early-mover markets like North America to lower-margin developing markets such as India. This helped keep sales levels propped up but has held margins back.
The rapid phase of 5G deployments in India is now moderating, with sales in the country growing by 14% on year, but declining by almost 40% compared with the third quarter.
“A reduction in capex investments in India was expected in the beginning of 2024 but occurred earlier than anticipated,” Ericsson said in a statement.
“It is important to note that, looking historically, large declines in the mobile network market are followed by a rebound,” said Börje Ekholm, Ericsson’s CEO, on his usual quarterly call with analysts. “Operators can sweat the assets up to a point but eventually will need to invest to manage the data traffic growth, cost, energy usage and, of course, network quality, and give the customer the experience that the customer demands.”
“As we look ahead, 2024 will be a difficult year and market conditions will prevail, and so we currently expect the market outside China to further decline as our customers remain cautious and the investment pace normalizes in India,” said Ekholm. A speedy rollout of 5G in the huge Asian country slowed down massively in the final quarter, explaining why Ericsson’s network sales in India fell sequentially by as much as 40%.
Ericsson reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.39 billion Swedish kronor ($324 million) compared with SEK6.07 billion a year earlier, as sales fell 16% to SEK71.88 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet had expected a net profit of SEK3.29 billion on sales of SEK76.64 billion.
The earnings before interest, tax and amortization margin excluding restructuring charges stood at 11.4%, beating company guidance of around 10%. The Swedish company expects the overall network market to shrink in 2024 and the near-term outlook remains uncertain, mainly due to the decline in India as well as generally cautious customer investments.
However, Ericsson expects to gain market share in North America toward the latter part of 2024 thanks to its recent $14B Open RAN contract win from AT&T. That deal has been heavily promoted by Ericsson and AT&T as an “open RAN” affair. Disaggregated network equipment with “open interfaces”would permit AT&T to pair Ericsson Open RAN gear with that from other Open RAN hardware vendors. Although Fujitsu has been named as another supplier of Open RAN radios, the contract will clearly make AT&T more dependent on Ericsson than it is today.
This author doesn’t believe the reported $14B deal will be totally realized, because AT&T will not deploy much, if any, Open RAN this year.
Ericsson also remains hopeful that Vonage can bring about a recovery. Along with other parts of the industry, it has been working to standardize the application programming interfaces (APIs) between the 5G network and the apps it would support. The idea is that a software developer would be able to write better 5G apps after paying for access to the Vonage platform where these network features are exposed. Money would trickle down to operators and they, in turn, would be more inclined to invest in network upgrades.
“In our view, the current investment levels are unsustainably low for many operators,” Chief Executive Borje Ekholm said. “We are therefore confident that a market recovery should materialize. However, the timing of market recovery is ultimately in the hands of our customers.”
PHOTO: LARS SCHRODER/AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES
References:
https://www.wsj.com/business/telecom/ericsson-sees-network-challenges-continuing-in-2024-0c127a4e
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/ericsson-eyes-more-cuts-after-slashing-9-000-jobs-as-outlook-dims
Recon Analytics (x-China) survey reveals that Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung are the top RAN vendors
NTT advert in WSJ: Why O-RAN Will Change Everything vs. AT&T selects Ericsson for its O-RAN
Ericsson Mobility Report touts “5G SA opportunities”
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Verizon’s 2023 broadband net additions led by FWA at 375K
At the end of 2023, Verizon’s total broadband base was 10.7 million, with fixed wireless access (FWA) customers making up the bulk of quarterly net additions. For all of 2023, Verizon posted 375,000 net FWA additions, bringing its total fixed wireless subscriber base to over 3 million.
Total broadband net additions were 413,000, compared to 416,000 in Q4 2022. Although Verizon doesn’t post metrics for its DSL customers, overall wireline net adds were 38,000, implying the company lost 17,000 DSL subscribers in the quarter.
In the 4th quarter of 2023, Verizon added 55,000 Fios Internet customers, marking a year-on-year decline of 4,000. Consumer Fios revenue of $2.9 billion increased 1% from Q4 2022, but for the full year was relatively flat at $11.6 billion. Business Fios revenue for the quarter increased 2.6% to $312 million, while jumping 2.8% to $1.2 million for full-year 2023.
CEO Hans Vestberg noted on the earnings call broadband net adds for full-year 2023 totaled more than 1.7 million, “with more than one and a half million from fixed wireless access.” Fios net additions for the year came to 248,000.
Total Broadband:
- Total broadband net additions of 413,000, represented the fifth consecutive quarter that Verizon reported more than 400,000 broadband net additions. Total broadband net additions included 375,000 fixed wireless net additions, bringing the subscriber base to over 3 million. In fourth-quarter 2023, more than 80 percent of Consumer fixed wireless gross additions were in Verizon’s first 76 C-Band markets. Verizon is ahead of schedule to achieve its goal of 4 to 5 million subscribers by the end of 2025.
- 55,000 Fios Internet net additions, down 4,000 from the fourth-quarter 2022.
- 10.7 million total broadband subscribers as of the end of fourth-quarter 2023.
Total Wireless:
- Total wireless postpaid net additions for full-year 2023 increased 26 percent compared to 2022.
- Total wireless service revenue of $19.4 billion, a 3.2 percent increase year over year.
- Retail postpaid phone net additions of 449,000, and retail postpaid net additions of 1,460,000.
- Retail postpaid churn of 1.18 percent, and retail postpaid phone churn of 0.93 percent.
“After delivering continuous improvement throughout 2023, we ended the year strong and continue to pursue the right balance of growth and profitability,” CEO Hans Vestberg said in the 4th quarter earnings statement.
References:
https://www.verizon.com/about/investors/quarterly-reports/4q-2023-earnings-conference-call-webcast
Ookla: T-Mobile and Verizon lead in U.S. 5G FWA
Verizon once again delays 5G Standalone (SA) commercial service
Recon Analytics (x-China) survey reveals that Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung are the top RAN vendors
A Recon Analytics on-line survey results show that Ericsson, Nokia and Samsung are the top RAN vendors not including China. When the same global operators were asked which vendor had the best overall radio access network (RAN) portfolios, over 50% of respondents named Ericsson and Samsung as the top two. One would’ve expected Nokia to be #2, but the Finland based vendor ended 2023 on a negative trajectory when AT&T announced that it would work with Ericsson to deploy Open RAN equipment in its 5G network and exclude Nokia.
The survey was conducted in October and November, 2023 with 100 global network operators. Each respondent worked at a service provider that sells mobile services. Only one response per operator per country was allowed. Although a multinational operator like Orange France and Orange Belgium would count as two separate responses.
All respondents were required to have one of the following roles when it came to selecting network partners – influencer, budget holder, decision maker or purchaser.
Recon Analytics estimates there are only about 710 live commercial mobile networks in the world. The 100 network operators captured in its survey, represent the meaningful part of the world, according to Roger Entner, founder of Recon Analytics. However, the relatively low sample size results in a margin of error of 9.8%. Entner had earlier opined that “FWA was the 5G killer application.” That despite it is a wireles network configuration – not an application – and it is not one of the ITU-R use cases for 5G (aka IMT 2020).
Communication Service Provider RAN Vendor Insights:
When survey respondents were asked which vendors have the best overall RAN portfolio, they named Ericsson, Samsung and Nokia, in that order.
“Ericsson, with the overall highest level of positive responses for being a top three vendor, positions the company well for the future,” said Daryl Schoolar, analyst with Recon Analytics.
Of respondents who said they were currently using Ericsson equipment, 77% said Ericsson had one of the three best portfolios, followed by Samsung at 54%, and Nokia at 49%. 87% of respondents who say they are using Samsung gear list the Japan based vendor as having a top three portfolio.
“While Ericsson’s users don’t list it in their top three at the same frequency as Samsung, 77% is a strong showing and bodes well for its future,” said Schoolar. “Nokia has reason to be concerned as well. While its current users did select it in top three most often among the five vendors shown here, there was little separation between Nokia versus Ericsson and Samsung,” he added.
Meanwhile, Fujitsu and Mavenir (Open RAN only vendor) also scored well as vendors that operators are interested in for the future. Samsung’s top three status is 18 percentage points over its currently used status; Fujitsu’s top three status is 9 percentage points over currently used; and Mavenir’s top three status is 9 percentage points over currently used.
References:
Dell’Oro: RAN revenues declined sharply in 2023 and will remain challenging in 2024; top 8 RAN vendors own the market
Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023
Dell’Oro: RAN Market to Decline 1% CAGR; Mobile Core Network growth reduced to 1% CAGR
LightCounting: Open RAN/vRAN market is pausing and regrouping
Dell’Oro: RAN revenues declined sharply in 2023 and will remain challenging in 2024; top 8 RAN vendors own the market
According to a new report by Dell’Oro Group, the Radio Access Network (RAN) market is now in a downward trajectory. That’s no surprise to readers of the IEEE Techblog, as we forecasted the “5G train wreck” many years ago and continued the drumbeat due to the scarcity of 5G SA core networks, without which there are NO 5G features/functions. Also that URLLC performance requirements were not met by either the 3GPP Release 16 Enhancements for URLLC in the RAN spec or the ITU M.2150 recommendation which is the official standard for 5G NR.
Following the >40 percent ascent between 2017 and 2021, RAN revenues stabilized in 2022, and are on target to decline sharply in 2023. Market conditions are expected to remain challenging in 2024 as the Indian RAN market pulls back, though the pace of the global decline this year and for the remainder of the forecast period should be more moderate.
“The big picture has not changed. MBB-based investments are now slowing and the upside with new growth areas including FWA and private wireless is still too small to change the trajectory,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Also weighing on the MBB market is the fact that the upper mid-band capacity boost is rather significant relative to current data traffic growth rates in some markets, which could impact the timing for capacity upgrades,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from the Mobile RAN 5-Year January 2024 Forecast Report:
- Worldwide RAN revenues are projected to decline at a 1 percent CAGR over the next five years.
- The Asia Pacific region is expected to lead the decline, while easier comparisons following steep contractions in 2023 will improve the growth prospects in the North America region.
- 5G-Advanced is expected to play an important role in the broader 5G journey, however, it is not expected to fuel another major capex growth cycle.
- RAN segments that are expected to grow over the next five years include: 5G NR, FWA, mmWave, Massive MIMO, Open RAN, private wireless, small cells, and Virtualized RAN.
Dell’Oro said in November said it was optimistic about the long-term growth prospects of the RAN space, but simultaneously noted that after a peak in 2021, RAN revenues will track downwards until the second half of the current decade; overall it predicted a 1% compound annual growth rate between 2020 and 2030. That forecast will now have to be revised DOWN significantly as 6G- the next big RAN mover- won’t be standardized till 2031 at the earliest.
RAN remains a concentrated market, with the top 8 RAN suppliers accounting for more than 98% of the 1Q23-3Q23 RAN market. New technologies, architectures, and segments can in some cases present opportunities for vendors with smaller footprints. Still, the track record for new entrants is far from perfect.
Dell’Oro Group’s Mobile RAN 5-Year Forecast Report offers a complete overview of the RAN market by region – North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Asia Pacific, China, and Caribbean & Latin America, with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue and unit shipments for 5GNR, 5G NR Sub 7 GHz, 5G NR mmW and LTE pico, micro, and macro base stations. The report also covers Open RAN, Virtualized RAN, small cells, and Massive MIMO. To purchase this report, please contact us by email at [email protected].
References:
RAN Decline to Extend Beyond 2023, According to Dell’Oro Group
https://techblog.comsoc.org/2024/01/18/where-have-you-gone-5g-midband-spectrum-fwa-decline-in-capex-and-ran-revenue-in-2024/
Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023
Dell’Oro: OpenRAN revenue forecast revised down through 2027
Dell’Oro: U.S. suppliers ~20% of global telecom equipment market; struggling in RAN business
Dell’Oro: Private 5G ecosystem is evolving; vRAN gaining momentum; skepticism increasing
https://www.sdxcentral.com/articles/contributed/what-to-expect-from-ran-in-2024/2024/01/
Telstra International partners with: Trans Pacific Networks to build Echo cable; Google and APTelecom for central Pacific Connect cables
Telstra International, the global arm of leading telecommunications and technology company Telstra, and Trans Pacific Networks (TPN) have partnered to build the Echo cable, the first subsea cable to directly connect the U.S. to Singapore, creating a new route and delivering vital connectivity in the Trans-Pacific.
Echo’s subsea system is a unique express route connecting California, Jakarta, Singapore, and Guam. The system creates a new path and offers low latency, high-speed, resilient network infrastructure connecting South Asia to the US. The first Echo segments (Guam-US) will launch in mid-2024, with the remaining segments in 2025. Telstra will become TPN’s operating partner to provide secure, long-term stability on an efficient route.
In addition, Telstra will be delivering cable landing station services for Echo in Singapore and the Network Operations Centre services. XL Axiata is landing the cable in Indonesia and our partner for delivering services into Indonesia. Telstra International CEO said the geographical area the new cable would be built in was one of the more challenging regions globally in terms of regulation as well as subsea cable cuts. “Our subsea network scale makes Telstra International uniquely placed to successfully navigate the complexity of these environments to ensure the stability of the world’s digital connectivity,” said Roary Stasko, CEO Telstra International.
In the Trans-Pacific, demand for bandwidth is growing at one of the fastest rates in the world, with forecasts showing it will increase by 39% year on year until 2029[1]. As our lives become increasingly digital and new technologies like AI, IoT and cloud computing continue to evolve, bandwidth plays a critical role in supporting these and is set to soar further as the need for reliable, low latency connectivity grows to serve businesses and consumers.
“Trans Pacific Networks is thrilled to partner with industry leader Telstra to expand telecommunication access between the US and Asia. To be partially funded by the US International Development Finance Corporation, the Echo subsea cable system will be a critical element of the Indo-Pacific’s digital infrastructure, ultimately strengthening networks and increasing capacity while reducing internet costs in the region,” said Aaron Knapik, CFO TPN.
“The Trans-Pacific is a critical connection point to reach the US, and the geography of these regions means they will rely on new submarine cable routes like Echo for international connectivity. We’re delighted to partner with TPN to launch capacity via Echo which will significantly enhance the vital data demands of people and businesses and provide much needed diversity, resiliency and reliability which has become critical to keep our everyday lives connected.”
“We’re accelerating growth in our international digital infrastructure with investments in subsea fibre capacity on unique, diverse routes – helping to move more traffic around the world and strengthening connections from Asia to the US. Echo’s cable system has the ability to allow other countries to take advantage of its redundancy. In addition, we’ve recently added 3Tbps of capacity through the SEA-US cable connecting US mainland to Hawaii, Guam and Philippines which complements our existing Trans-Pacific cables like AAG, UNITY, FASTER, NCP and JUPITER,” Roary said.
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In addition, Telstra International will be partnering with Google and APTelecom to deliver the new central Pacific Connect initiative which will significantly uplift connectivity for people and businesses of the Pacific. The two cables – which make up the central Pacific Connect initiative – Bulikula will connect Guam and Fiji, and Halaihai will connect and Guam and French Polynesia.
Telstra will be one of the key telecommunications providers of central Pacific Connect and will own and operate a fiber pair on the core trunk on the Bulikula cable connecting Guam and Fiji. Bulikula is the Fijian word for “golden cowrie,” a rare shell found in the Pacific Ocean often worn by local chieftains as a badge of rank. The next step will be partnering with other carriers and governments to assist in building and operating branches to the Pacific islands. These branches will power access to vital digital services across the region and will improve network performance, redundancy and reliability.
Bulikula and Halaihai cable systems
“Telstra has decades of experience providing international connectivity in the Pacific, and with our network scale and local expertise, we are looking forward to partnering with Google and APTelecom to build reliable, high-performance connectivity for island countries. We’re committed to improving infrastructure across the region which will support the future growth of local economies,” said Roary Stasko, CEO Telstra International.
In addition, Telstra is partnering with Google on the Tabua cable which combined with the central Pacific Connect initiative, will dramatically improve the diversity of paths between Guam to Australia via Fiji and other Pacific islands, and between the US mainland and Australia.
About Telstra International:
Telstra is a leading telecommunications and technology company with a proudly Australian heritage and a longstanding, growing international business. Telstra International provides services to thousands of business, government, carrier and OTT customers. Over several decades we have established the largest wholly-owned subsea cable network in the Asia-Pacific, with a unique and diverse set of infrastructure that offers access to the most intra-Asia lit capacity. We empower businesses with innovative technology solutions including data and IP networks, and network application services such as managed networks, unified communications, cloud, industry solutions, integrated software applications and services. These services are underpinned by our subsea cable network, with licenses in Asia, Europe and the Americas and access to more than 2,000 Points of Presences (PoPs) in more than 200 countries and territories globally. In July 2022 Telstra completed the acquisition of Digicel Pacific, the largest mobile operator in the South Pacific region.
For more information, please visit www.telstra.com/global.
References:
https://www.telstra.com.au/aboutus/telstra-international
https://www.telecoms.com/fixed-networks/google-preps-for-more-island-hopping-with-telstra
Infinera trial for Telstra InfraCo’s intercity fiber project delivered 61.3 Tbps between Melbourne and Sydney, Australia
Telstra partners with Starlink for home phone service and LEO satellite broadband services
Nokia to exit TD Tech joint venture with Huawei due to U.S.-China tensions
According to a January 21,2024 article in the South China Morning Post, Nokia is set to exit its joint venture with Huawei in the telecommunications sector due to US-China tensions. Nokia has found new buyers for its majority stake in a Beijing-based joint venture with Huawei Technologies, after a proposed deal fell through last year following strong protest by the Chinese partner. The article states that Nokia will sell its majority stake in TD Tech [1.] to a group that will be jointly controlled by Huawei and a group of entities that include the government-owned Chengdu High-Tech Investment Group and Chengdu Gaoxin Jicui Technology Co, as well as venture capital firm Huagai, according to a disclosure published on Friday by the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR).
Huawei had a 14% share in the Chinese smartphone market in the third quarter 2023, putting it in fifth place behind its spin-off Honor and rivals Oppo, Vivo and Apple, data from market intelligence firm Counterpoint Research showed. According to Statista, Huawei had a 58% share of all 5G base stations in China as of the 3rd quarter 2023. Its closest competitor was ZTE with a market share of 31%. Nokia had only a 2% market share.
IMT-2030 Technical Performance Requirements (TPR) from ITU-R WP5D
As defined in Resolution ITU-R 56-3, International Mobile Telecommunications-2030 (IMT-2030) systems are mobile systems that include new radio interface(s) which support enhanced capabilities and new capabilities beyond IMT‑2020, IMT-Advanced and IMT-2000. In Recommendation ITU-R M.2160 ‒ Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, the capabilities of IMT-2030 are identified, which aims to make IMT-2030 more capable, flexible, reliable and secure than previous IMT systems when providing diverse and novel services in the intended six usage scenarios (see figure below), including immersive communication, hyper reliable and low‑latency communication (HRLLC), massive communication, ubiquitous connectivity, artificial intelligence and communication, and integrated sensing and communication (ISAC).
IMT-2030 is expected to support enriched and potential immersive experience, enhanced ubiquitous coverage, and enable new forms of collaboration. Furthermore, IMT-2030 is envisaged to support expanded and new usage scenarios compared to those of IMT-2020, while providing enhanced and new capabilities. In accordance with the IMT-2030 (6G) timeline within ITU-R, development of IMT-2030 Technical Performance Requirements (TPR) is expected to start in ITU-R Working Party 5D (WP 5D) at the February 2024 meeting in Geneva.
- The IMT-2030 performance requirements are to be evaluated according to the criteria defined in Report ITU-R M.[IMT‑2030.EVAL] and Report ITU-R M.[IMT-2030.SUBMISSION] for the development of IMT-2030.
- Recommendation ITU-R M.2160 defines fifteen key “Capabilities of IMT-2030,” which form a basis for the [x] technical performance requirements to be specified in the forthcoming draft document.
In order to facilitate the work of this important phase of IMT-2030 development, Apple, China, and India separately proposed outlines or suggestions for a working document towards a preliminary draft new report on technical performance requirements of IMT-2030. Those contributions will be presented and discussed at the February 2024 ITU-R WP 5D meeting in Geneva, Switzerland.
The proposed technical performance parameters include:
Peak data rate, Peak spectral efficiency, User experienced data rate, 5th percentile user spectral efficiency, Average spectral efficiency, Area traffic capacity, Latency, User plane latency, Control plane latency, Connection density, Energy efficiency, Reliability, Mobility, Mobility interruption time, Bandwidth, Coverage, Positioning, Sensing, AI, Security, Sustainability, and Interoperability.
This work will certainly refer to IMT-2030 set of expected capabilities are outlined in ITU-R M.2160 Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond, which was approved in November 2023. A broad variety of capabilities associated with envisaged usage scenarios, are described in that recommendation.
Huge caveat: It’s important to note that the IMT 2020 (5G) Technical Performance Parameters specified in ITU-R M.2410 for URLLC use case have STILL NOT BEEN achieved. Furthermore, the 3GPP spec for URLLC in the RAN has not been performance tested or submitted to ITU-R WP5D, even though it was “frozen” June 2020 in 3GPP Rel 16. Hence, one must wonder if this proposed IMT 2030 Performance Parameter spec will be yet another “paper tiger?”
References:
https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/study-groups/rsg5/rwp5d/imt-2030/Pages/default.aspx
Draft new ITU-R recommendation (not yet approved): M.[IMT.FRAMEWORK FOR 2030 AND BEYOND]
IMT Vision – Framework and overall objectives of the future development of IMT for 2030 and beyond
IMT 2020.SPECS approved by ITU-R but may not meet 5G performance requirements; no 5G frequencies (revision of M.1036); 5G non-radio aspects not included
Where Have You Gone 5G? Midband spectrum, FWA, 2024 decline in CAPEX and RAN revenue
The “5G Train Wreck” we predicted five years ago has come to pass. With the possible exception of China and South Korea, 5G has been an unmitigated failure- for carriers, network equipment companies, and subscribers/customers. And there haven’t been any significant performance advantages over 4G. I’ve had a 5G Samsung phone for almost 2 years and I don’t notice any difference in performance from my previous 4G Samsung phone.
Jennifer Fritzsche, managing director at investment bank Greenhill & Company wrote on January 16th:“As carriers pulled back on capex and focused on Free Cash Flow, “5G” mentions saw a precipitous decline on almost every carrier earnings call last year.” However, she is somewhat optimistic for 2024, “2024 will be the year when carriers will need to justify the spectrum spend they paid billions of dollars for only a few short years ago. Although the 5G consumer killer app may already be here (FWA [1.]), the key trend to watch is the development of enterprise solutions for 5G. If carriers can tap into their deep enterprise relationships to play ball here – this 5G thing becomes a lot more real.”
Note 1. It’s quite surprising that Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) has emerged as the most popular 5G deployment, especially from T-Mobile US and Verizon. That’s because it was NOT one of the three 5G use cases defined by ITU-R (Enhanced Mobile Broadband, Machine to Machine Communications and URLLC).
Midband spectrum is a key element supporting the fixed wireless access (FWA) services from all of the big US wireless network operators. FWA promises to supplant wired Internet connections inside homes and offices with 5G connections. Yet network operators aren’t boasting about their midband network buildouts like they were a few years ago. Instead, they’re talking about plans to reduce spending (CAPEX) on their networks in order to boost revenues.
“We’ve been telling you [in 2024] our capital intensity was going to tail off from kind of the peak levels we’ve been at the last couple of years,” AT&T CEO John Stankey said at a recent UBS investor conference. “I expect that’s going to be the case,” he added. AT&T officials have said the company will spend between $21 billion and $22 billion on capital expenses (capex) during 2024, down from $24 billion in 2023. Other operators are signaling similar drawdowns.
“We’ve spent a lot of money over the past five years, a lot of money building the world’s best 5G plant, and it’s time to be able to enjoy having that in the ground and be able to realize the benefits of that,” Sievert, T-Mobile’s CEO, explained.
Financial analysts at Evercore recently wrote that they expect U.S. capex to decline “as the 5G investment cycle tapers off. There should not be another capex cycle for the next few years adding some comfort to the FCF [free cash flow] outlook in a world of fundamental uncertainty.”
RAN revenue continues to decline Year-over-Year. Dell’Oro’s preliminary findings from 1Q23-3Q23 data reveal that the North America RAN market is declining at a much steeper rate than anticipated. Interestingly, the capex decline in the U.S. aligns with operators’ communications, but the North America wireless RAN/capex ratio is on track to reach the sub-15% range, highlighting the disconnect lies not in capex decline but in the proportion allocated to the RAN. Yet RAN excluding North America is actually coming in stronger than what we outlined going into 2023, in part because of the incredible 5G ascent in India. Putting things together, it appears that the surprise on the downside in the U.S. is more than enough to offset the stronger-than expected showing in the Asia Pacific region.
Looking ahead, Dell’Oro is forecasting global RAN to record a second consecutive year of RAN contractions in 2024, though the pace of the decline should be more moderate. The regional dynamics will change as the pendulum swings towards the negative in India. Wireless capex in the US is still on track to decline. Yet we are forecasting the North America RAN market to grow, implying a greater portion of the capex will be allocated towards the RAN segment in 2024
Dell’Oro’s Stefan Pongratz concludes:
In summary, 2024 is unlikely to emerge as the most exhilarating year from a broader RAN revenue growth perspective. Even so, within the market, there will be pockets undergoing significant changes. While some of the upcoming growth areas will remain relatively small, 2024 is poised to be an important transition year for various wireless sub-segments. As always, the competitive RAN landscape will continue to be fierce. Despite the anticipated decline in certain aspects of the RAN market, it should be an eventful year.
References:
https://www.igr-inc.com/communications-infrastructure/fritzsches-forum/240116/
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/america-s-5g-buildouts-move-into-unknown-territory
https://www.sdxcentral.com/articles/contributed/what-to-expect-from-ran-in-2024/2024/01/
Dell’Oro: RAN revenues declined sharply in 2023 and remain challenging in 2024
U.S. Network Operators and Equipment Companies Agree: 5G CAPEX slowing more than expected
MTN Consulting: Generative AI hype grips telecom industry; telco CAPEX decreases while vendor revenue plummets
U.S. 5G spending slowdown continues; RAN revenues set to decline for years!
https://www.delloro.com/news/worldwide-telecom-capex-to-drop-7-percent-by-2025/
Dell’Oro: Telecom Capex Growth to Slow in calendar years 2022-2024
https://www.sdxcentral.com/articles/contributed/what-to-expect-from-ran-in-2024/2024/01/
https://www.lightreading.com/fixed-wireless-access/fwa-to-remain-biggest-disruptor-through-2024
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/what-they-re-saying-about-5g-capex-in-2023-and-2024
China Unicom & Huawei deploy 2.1 GHz 8T8R 5G network for high-speed railway in China
China Unicom Jilin, the local affiliate of China Unicom in the Jilin province, has completed the deployment of a 2.1 GHz 8T8R 5G network for a segment of the national Harbin-Dalian high-speed railway with 5G network equipment from Huawei.
Tests show that 8T8R AAUs increase the coverage area by 44% compared with 4T4R, and 5G user experience improves by 5.2 times compared with 4G. The train passengers can heartily access the network for entertainment such as HD video, live streaming, and New Calling as well as for work on-the-move such as remote video conferencing.
In 2023, China Unicom embarked on a 5G coverage project along China’s sixteen trunk high-speed railways. Its affiliate in Jilin province contributed to its share of constructing the province’s premium 5G network for high-speed railways within the provincial borders. At first, this network construction project was daunted by four serious challenges. To begin with, the distance between sites is large. What’s worse, the penetration loss was greater with high-speed railways than common railways. Additionally, high-speed mobility increased the Doppler shift, a direct cause of performance deterioration. Lastly, user experience was poor due to short camping time caused by frequent handovers (every 3–4 seconds) on trains running at a high speed of 300 km/hr.
To address these challenges, in this project, China Unicom Jilin deployed the 2.1 GHz 8T8R AAU, and activated the High-speed Railway Excellent Experience feature and Cell Combination feature.
The 2.1 GHz 8T8R AAU solution integrates with technologies like multi-antenna, integrated high-gain array, intelligent beamforming, and precise and fast beam sweeping. Compared with 4T4R, it improves coverage by 7.5 dB, user experience by an impressive 55%, and capacity by 85%. This solution solves the problem of poor coverage caused by large distances and large insertion loss on high-speed railways. It also uses the same antenna as the legacy 4G 1.8 GHz network, simplifying site deployment and reducing tower rental by 10%. This series of solutions with Huawei FDD beamforming technology took home the GSMA GLOMO award for “Best Mobile Technology Breakthrough” and was listed in the “Guangdong Province Energy Saving Technology and Equipment (Product) Recommendation Catalogue”, issued by the Guangdong Energy Bureau in July 2023, for its excellent performance in energy saving.
After the High-Speed Railway Excellent Experience feature is enabled, the 5G base station proactively adjusts the signal frequency to offset the negative impact caused by frequency offset. This solves the Doppler shift problem in high-speed railway continuous coverage scenarios. After Cell Combination feature is enabled, the number of inter-cell handovers can be reduced in a cell combination network, which solves the problems of fast handovers and short camping time on high-speed railways. Test results show that after this feature is enabled, the access success rate increases to 99.4% and the call drop rate decreases by 57%. This overcomes the difficulties of difficult network access in ultra-high-speed scenarios.
This commercial deployment of the 2.1 GHz 8T8R AAU solution will greatly facilitate the operator’s future plans for similar 5G rollouts. China Unicom Jilin will continue to explore 5G network deployments in different scenarios as well as innovative applications of 2.1 GHz 8T8R in order to build differentiated 5G advantages based on service requirements in various 5G scenarios.
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