Year: 2023
BroadbandNow Research: Best & Worst States for Broadband Access
A recent study by BroadbandNow Research has assessed the best and worst states in the U.S. for broadband internet access in 2023. The study evaluated each state and the District of Columbia based on various factors such as access to wired or fixed wireless broadband, access to low-priced broadband, median download speed, and median upload speed.
Key Findings:
- Availability of low-priced broadband has increased across the U.S. There is now only 1 state with less than 20% of the population having access to a broadband plan for $60 per month or less (down from 25 states last year). Having said that, in only one state, Wyoming, more than half of residents have access to such a plan.
- Latency (round trip time) is a measure of responsiveness–the time between when you click something and when you get a response–and it’s critical for a smooth internet experience, especially for real-time interactions such as gaming or video calls. There is a huge geographic disparity between states that do well in this metric, like New York or Washington with median round trip times less than 7.5 milliseconds, and states that do poorly, like Hawai’i and Massachusetts with median round trip times greater than 61 milliseconds.
- Delaware is the best state for broadband internet, with 46.2% of its population having access to low-priced broadband and a median download speed of 96.1 Mbps. On the other hand, Alaska ranked at the bottom of the list, with only 20% of its population having access to affordable broadband and a median download speed of 58.5 Mbps.
- We support changing the definition of broadband speeds from 25Mbps down and 3Mbps up to 100Mbps down and 25Mbps up, but we’re a long way away from widespread access to those speeds. Nationally, only 39% of Americans are getting 100Mbps down, and only 25% are getting 25Mbps up.
10 Best States for Broadband
10 Worst States for Broadband
According to the study, there is only one state, Nevada, with less than 20% of its population having access to a broadband plan for $60 per month or less. This is a significant drop from the 25 states that had such limited access last year.
In the Tri-State area, Illinois secured the 14th spot with 95.7% of its residents having access to wired or fixed wireless broadband. Additionally, 31.4% of the population had access to low-priced broadband. Illinois also boasted a median download speed of 85.3 Mbps, surpassing the national median.
Indiana ranked 23rd overall, with an impressive download speed of 85.7 Mbps. 31.4% of its population also had access to low-priced broadband. However, the state fell short in terms of overall broadband access, with only 92.8% of residents having access to wired or fixed wireless broadband.
Kentucky landed at the 36th spot, with a mere 25% of its population having access to affordable broadband. In an effort to improve access, Governor Andy Beshear, Senator Mitch McConnell, and other lawmakers secured over $1 billion in funding for broadband access in June, marking the largest public investment in high-speed internet in the state’s history.
References:
GAO: U.S. Broadband Benchmark Speeds Too Slow; FCC Should Analyze Small Business Speed Needs
FCC proposes 100 Mbps download as U.S. minimum broadband speed
Analysys Mason & Light Reading: cellular data traffic growth rates are decreasing
According to Analysys Mason, the telecoms industry is fixated on the idea of a constant and dramatic increase in data consumption by cellular network users. However, the growth rates are no longer increasing. The annual growth in cellular data traffic slowed, worldwide, from more than 90% in 2018 to 34% in 2021 and again to around 22% in 2022.
These figures include a surge in cellular data traffic generated by customers with fixed–wireless access (FWA) services. FWA customers (due to time spent watching TV and video streaming) often generated more than 200–500GB per month which is 16 times more than an average mobile cellular data customer, in 2022.
This means there is an even steeper decline in the growth of data traffic generated by mobile handsets, decreasing from an annual rate of 104% in 2018 to 21% in 2022.
Figure 1: Cellular data traffic growth rates by region, 2017–2022
CEE = Central and Eastern Europe, DVAP = Developed Asia–Pacific, EMAP = Emerging Asia–Pacific, LATAM = Latin America, MENA = Middle East and North Africa, NA =North America, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa, WE = Western Europe
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
From Light Reading:
- Data traffic on Openreach, the UK’s main broadband network, grew just 3% last year after rising 25% in 2021 and 127% in 2020 (the year of mass pandemic induced lockdowns).
- A similar trend is observable across the various fixed and mobile networks operated by Spain’s Telefónica. Traffic surged 43% in 2020, but the rate of increase dipped to 11% last year. If the trend persists, the petabytes will soon be dropping.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
5G was expected to propel cellular data usage onto a new growth trajectory. However, this is not taking place at all.
Following the launch of 5G services, operators reported very high initial 5G data usage rates. This was primarily caused by the heaviest LTE users upgrading to 5G handsets and services. This migration simultaneously caused a decline in the average traffic generated by users with LTE handsets. The impact of the early adopters was subsequently diluted as less-intensive users upgrade to 5G handsets and services. Then, organic growth in usage started to mask some of the effects of the migration. Over time, though, we can look at whether the total growth in usage across all handset types is sustained. South Korea is a good example to look to. In South Korea, there was an initial surge in data usage the year 5G was introduced, but this effect was short-lived. Average data use by subscribers with 5G handsets fell from its high starting point, became flat and then started to rise once more but only at a low single-digit rate. Average usage by LTE handset owners has been steadily decreasing. Overall, average data traffic growth across all handset types has slowed for 3 years in a row.
Figure 2: Cellular network data traffic growth, South Korea, December 2018–December 2022
| Monthly usage (MB) | December 2018 | December 2019 | December 2020 | December 2021 | December 2022 |
| 4G smartphone traffic per subscriber | 8177 | 9753 | 9650 | 8619 | 7591 |
| 5G smartphone traffic per subscriber | 27 282 | 26 744 | 26 834 | 27 589 | |
| 4G smartphone usage growth | 21% | 19% | –1% | –11% | –12% |
| 5G smartphone usage growth | –2% | 0% | 3% | ||
| Average growth (2G, 3G, 4G and 5G handsets) | 23% | 38% | 18% | 15% | 10% |
Source: Analysys Mason
Operators are currently using FWA to fill the gap between capacity and demand in their 5G networks, but the revenue per megabyte that they generate from FWA services is much lower than that for mobile cellular data services. Relying on FWA traffic to fill 5G networks will not satisfy mobile operators’ investors in the long run. Some operators will also need to limit FWA availability because without the careful management of FWA traffic on 5G networks, there could be negative impacts on the quality of service for non-FWA users.
Only new applications and services will unlock future annual growth rates of 30% or more. However, it is unlikely that the types of services that could significantly accelerate cellular data traffic growth will have a substantial near-term impact.
- Higher definition video and TV services could potentially drive a new wave of data usage. Device capability is an obstacle to this possibility, as most mobile handsets are either not capable of displaying high-definition content or the screen size is too small for users to see the difference. A surge in the use of tablets to view TV on mobile networks could change this – although tablet users tend to use Wi-Fi as their primary means of connectivity. A few mobile operators have introduced mobile cellular data packages that include subscriptions to on-demand TV. This has the potential to drive up data traffic, but there are limits to the amount of time people can spend watching TV when they are away from their homes. Lack of time is likely to prevent excessive mobile TV consumption away from the home. Within the home – even when they have unlimited mobile data packages – users don’t tend to switch to their mobile networks. They typically continue to use devices connected to their home fixed broadband and Wi-Fi for extended TV viewing.
- Connected cars have been regarded as a potential source of high-volume data traffic. But this will likely not happen soon. Most new cars equipped with a mobile connection still only have LTE capabilities, and most of those are only used for telematics. Some original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), as well as operators, have introduced service packages to encourage in-car use of services (based on embedded and aftermarket connections). Even still, usage volumes have been low even in luxury vehicles. Other potential drivers of traffic are C-V2X systems for intelligent transport networks and autonomous vehicles. But despite numerous tests and trials, C-V2X infrastructures are years away, and fully autonomous vehicles still have technical and regulatory hurdles to overcome before they are deployed in meaningful numbers.
- Metaverse services – including AR and VR, and services using haptics – have the potential to generate a high volume of data traffic. In the next 4 or 5 years, the number of users with AR and VR headsets is expected to reach 300–400 million , but faster take-up will be restricted by the cost of end-user equipment, and most image processing will be done using equipment within the home. Eventually, metaverse use cases could involve vast numbers of customers, with cloud processing of fully immersive environments and services requiring very low latency and very high bandwidth.
- However, most of the usage will take place indoors where a combination of fibre and Wi-Fi seems much more suited to the service requirements.
The volume of cellular data traffic is increasing in absolute terms, but the annual change measured in percentage terms is going to be much lower than what is has been historically. Analysys Mason’s new report Wireless network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2022–2028 evaluates the prospects for cellular data growth over the coming 5 years, with global cellular data traffic nearly tripling worldwide to 2.7ZB in 2028, with a limited metaverse uptick at the end of the period.
References:
https://www.analysysmason.com/research/content/articles/cellular-data-traffic-rdnt0/
Highlights of FCC Notice of Inquiry (NOI) on radio spectrum usage & how AI might be used
The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is requesting input from the public on new technological approaches to assessing “real-time, non-Federal (government) spectrum usage, so that it has better insights into current technologies that might help the agency to manage spectrum and identify opportunities for spectrum sharing—including how artificial intelligence (AI) might be used.
This FCC Notice of Inquiry (NOI) was approved by all four members of the Commission. It states:
“Spectrum usage information is generally non-public and made available infrequently. As the radiofrequency (RF) environment grows more congested, however, we anticipate a greater need to consider such data to improve spectrum management. That is especially true as the burgeoning growth of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) offer revolutionary insights into large and complex datasets. Leveraging today’s tools to understand tomorrow’s commercial spectrum usage can help identify new opportunities to facilitate more efficient spectrum use, including
new spectrum sharing techniques and approaches to enable co-existence among users and services.”
Spectrum usage has been defined in various ways. In one technical paper, for instance, NTIA and NIST defined “band occupancy” as “the percentage of frequencies or channels in the band with a detected signal level that exceeds a default or user-defined threshold.”
“Right now, so many of our commercial spectrum bands are growing crowded,” said FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel. “Hundreds of millions of wireless connections—from smartphones to medical sensors—are using this invisible infrastructure. And that number is growing fast. But congestion can make it harder to make room in our skies for new technologies and new services. Yet we have to find a way, because no one wants innovation to grind to a halt. To do this we need smarter policies, like efforts that facilitate more efficient use of this scarce resource. … Now enter AI. A large wireless provider’s network can generate several million performance measurements every minute. Using those measurements, machine learning can provide insights that help better understand network usage, support greater spectrum efficiency, and improve resiliency by making it possible to heal networks on their own.”
“[This] inquiry is a way to understand this kind of potential and help ensure it develops here in the United States first. “I believe we can do more to increase our understanding of spectrum utilization and support the development of AI tools in wireless networks,” she added.
Rosenworcel noted that some pioneering work on dynamic, cognitive radios was kick-started with the Defense Advanced Research Project’s three-year Spectrum Collaboration Challenge, which sought to develop software-defined radios’ capability to dynamically detect other spectrum users and work around them in a congested radio frequency environment.
The FCC pointed out in a statement that it generally doesn’t collect information on spectrum usage, and instead relies on intermittent data from third-party sources.
“As the radiofrequency environment becomes more congested, leveraging technologies such as artificial intelligence to understand spectrum usage and draw insights from large and complex datasets can help facilitate more efficient spectrum use, including new spectrum sharing techniques and approaches to enable co-existence among users and services,” the agency said, adding that the inquiry will explore the “feasibility, benefits, and limitations” of various ways to understand non-federal spectrum usage, as well as band- or service-specific considerations and various technical, practical or legal aspects that should be considered.
References:
https://www.fcc.gov/document/spectrum-usage-noi
https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/FCC-23-63A1.pdf
Saudi Arabia’s Stc Achieves 10 Gbps Speeds in 5G mmWave Trials
Saudi Arabia’s Stc (Saudi Telecom Company) Group announced the successful completion of the first live trials of advanced 5G technology in the Middle East and North Africa. The trials demonstrated speeds exceeding 10 Gbps using Millimeter Wave (mmWave) technology. The trials are an extension of the robust infrastructure of the advanced 5.5G network in the Kingdom
According to the company, these trials complement the existing advanced 5.5G network in the kingdom, enabling data transfer at new record speeds in a live working environment.
“This achievement signifies a new stage in facilitating digital transformation in the region and places the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the forefront of advanced nations in the field of telecommunications.”
The Kingdom’s residents can now anticipate faster and more efficient data connectivity than before. The company said that the success of these trials is an essential aspect of stc’s “Dare” strategy. The goal is to offer access to new services and enhance customer experiences to new heights, aligned with the Saudi Vision 2030 and supporting digital transformation in the region.
The latest progress in advanced 5G technology puts Saudi Arabia at the forefront of technological innovation in the region, paving the way for even more advancements. By adopting this technology, the country is preparing itself for upcoming developments and the digital age.
References:
Inside AT&T’s newly expanded $8 billion cost-reduction program and huge layoffs
As its stock price (“T”) trades at 30+ year lows, AT&T is under severe pressure to cut costs. Its wireless subscriber growth is slowing, new fiber take rates are lower, debt has increased by $6 billion to $143.3 billion, while the company faces a potentially costly ($B+) lead cable cleanup.
AT&T recently announced they will cut another $2 billion in expenses over the next three years, even after reaching a $6 billion cost reduction plan early. Largely through what AT&T called “surplussings,” rounds of layoffs have been conducted on a department level on nearly a monthly basis to reduce costs.
The Dallas-based company’s employment has shrunk this decade from a peak of 281,000 to less than 160,000 through the first half of this year. Since the beginning of 2021, AT&T has cut 74,130 employees, including through divestitures, or 32% of its total staff through June 30th.
The company added fewer customers than analysts’ expected in the second quarter of 2023. In the three months ended June 30th, AT&T added 326,000 mobile phone subscribers. AT&T has been offering free phones in order to fuel customer growth for several quarters. The appeal of those promotions may be wearing out. The company cautioned last month that the pace of subscriber gains had slowed due to competition from rivals and cable TV companies.
AT&T raised rates on its premium mobile plan to help boost revenue and is in the process of restructuring operations by reducing 350 offices across the U.S. to nine core locations with the main hubs in Dallas and Atlanta. The telco has told 60,000 managers that they need to show up in person to one of these locations, and some will face relocation decisions or be fired.
Chief executive John Stankey recently informed employees in an email about the departure of HR chief Angela Santone. She is one of only three female top executives at AT&T. During her tenure, Santone developed an internal “culture of connection” program. The idea was to echo one of Stankey’s themes of “connectivity,” the new simplified mission for the company as it returned to its telecommunications roots after a $100 billion ill-fated attempt to transform the company into a media rival of Walt Disney Co. and Netflix Inc.
“On behalf of AT&T’s leadership, I’d like to thank her for her support and commitment to driving these initiatives during a very challenging and important time of transition,” Stankey wrote in the email, which was confirmed by Bloomberg. AT&T declined to comment on Santone’s departure.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Cloud Service Providers struggle with Generative AI; Users face vendor lock-in; “The hype is here, the revenue is not”
Everyone agrees that Generative AI has great promise and potential. Martin Casado of Andreessen Horowitz recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the technology has “finally become transformative:”
“Generative AI can bring real economic benefits to large industries with established and expensive workloads. Large language models could save costs by performing tasks such as summarizing discovery documents without replacing attorneys, to take one example. And there are plenty of similar jobs spread across fields like medicine, computer programming, design and entertainment….. This all means opportunity for the new class of generative AI startups to evolve along with users, while incumbents focus on applying the technology to their existing cash-cow business lines.”
A new investment wave caused by generative AI is starting to loom among cloud service providers, raising questions about whether Big Tech’s spending cutbacks and layoffs will prove to be short lived. Pressed to say when they would see a revenue lift from AI, the big U.S. cloud companies (Microsoft, Alphabet/Google, Meta/FB and Amazon) all referred to existing services that rely heavily on investments made in the past. These range from the AWS’s machine learning services for cloud customers to AI-enhanced tools that Google and Meta offer to their advertising customers.
Microsoft offered only a cautious prediction of when AI would result in higher revenue. Amy Hood, chief financial officer, told investors during an earnings call last week that the revenue impact would be “gradual,” as the features are launched and start to catch on with customers. The caution failed to match high expectations ahead of the company’s earnings, wiping 7% off its stock price (MSFT ticker symbol) over the following week.
When it comes to the newer generative AI wave, predictions were few and far between. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said on Thursday that the technology was in its “very early stages” and that the industry was only “a few steps into a marathon”. Many customers of Amazon’s cloud arm, AWS, see the technology as transformative, Jassy noted that “most companies are still figuring out how they want to approach it, they are figuring out how to train models.” He insisted that every part of Amazon’s business was working on generative AI initiatives and the technology was “going to be at the heart of what we do.”
There are a number of large language models that power generative AI, and many of the AI companies that make them have forged partnerships with big cloud service providers. As business technology leaders make their picks among them, they are weighing the risks and benefits of using one cloud provider’s AI ecosystem. They say it is an important decision that could have long-term consequences, including how much they spend and whether they are willing to sink deeper into one cloud provider’s set of software, tools, and services.
To date, AI large language model makers like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Cohere have led the charge in developing proprietary large language models that companies are using to boost efficiency in areas like accounting and writing code, or adding to their own products with tools like custom chatbots. Partnerships between model makers and major cloud companies include OpenAI and Microsoft Azure, Anthropic and Cohere with Google Cloud, and the machine-learning startup Hugging Face with Amazon Web Services. Databricks, a data storage and management company, agreed to buy the generative AI startup MosaicML in June.
If a company chooses a single AI ecosystem, it could risk “vendor lock-in” within that provider’s platform and set of services, said Ram Chakravarti, chief technology officer of Houston-based BMC Software. This paradigm is a recurring one, where a business’s IT system, software and data all sit within one digital platform, and it could become more pronounced as companies look for help in using generative AI. Companies say the problem with vendor lock-in, especially among cloud providers, is that they have difficulty moving their data to other platforms, lose negotiating power with other vendors, and must rely on one provider to keep its services online and secure.
Cloud providers, partly in response to complaints of lock-in, now offer tools to help customers move data between their own and competitors’ platforms. Businesses have increasingly signed up with more than one cloud provider to reduce their reliance on any single vendor. That is the strategy companies could end up taking with generative AI, where by using a “multiple generative AI approach,” they can avoid getting too entrenched in a particular platform. To be sure, many chief information officers have said they willingly accept such risks for the convenience, and potentially lower cost, of working with a single technology vendor or cloud provider.
A significant challenge in incorporating generative AI is that the technology is changing so quickly, analysts have said, forcing CIOs to not only keep up with the pace of innovation, but also sift through potential data privacy and cybersecurity risks.
A company using its cloud provider’s premade tools and services, plus guardrails for protecting company data and reducing inaccurate outputs, can more quickly implement generative AI off-the-shelf, said Adnan Masood, chief AI architect at digital technology and IT services firm UST. “It has privacy, it has security, it has all the compliance elements in there. At that point, people don’t really have to worry so much about the logistics of things, but rather are focused on utilizing the model.”
For other companies, it is a conservative approach to use generative AI with a large cloud platform they already trust to hold sensitive company data, said Jon Turow, a partner at Madrona Venture Group. “It’s a very natural start to a conversation to say, ‘Hey, would you also like to apply AI inside my four walls?’”
End Quotes:
“Right now, the evidence is a little bit scarce about what the effect on revenue will be across the tech industry,” said James Tierney of Alliance Bernstein.
Brent Thill, an analyst at Jefferies, summed up the mood among investors: “The hype is here, the revenue is not. Behind the scenes, the whole industry is scrambling to figure out the business model [for generative AI]: how are we going to price it? How are we going to sell it?”
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
References:
https://www.ft.com/content/56706c31-e760-44e1-a507-2c8175a170e8
https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-weigh-growing-power-of-cloud-providers-amid-ai-boom-478c454a
https://www.techtarget.com/searchenterpriseai/definition/generative-AI?Offer=abt_pubpro_AI-Insider
Global Telco AI Alliance to progress generative AI for telcos
Curmudgeon/Sperandeo: Impact of Generative AI on Jobs and Workers
Bain & Co, McKinsey & Co, AWS suggest how telcos can use and adapt Generative AI
Generative AI Unicorns Rule the Startup Roost; OpenAI in the Spotlight
Generative AI in telecom; ChatGPT as a manager? ChatGPT vs Google Search
Generative AI could put telecom jobs in jeopardy; compelling AI in telecom use cases
Qualcomm CEO: AI will become pervasive, at the edge, and run on Snapdragon SoC devices
MTN Consulting’s Network Operator Forecast Through 2027: “Telecom is essentially a zero-growth industry”
MTN Consulting’s Mid Year Update:
There are three different types of network operators: telecom operators (telcos), webscale network operators (webscalers), and carrier-neutral operators (CNNOs). In 2022, these three groups accounted for $4.1 trillion (T) in revenues, $559 billion (B) in capex, and 8.87 million employees. The report provides 2011-22 actuals and projections through 2027, and includes projections from past forecasts for reference.
Review of the 3 Market Segments:
1. Telco: Telecom is essentially a zero-growth industry. Specific countries and companies do grow from time to time, in part from market share shifts, the different timing of growth cycles, or M&A. But global telco revenues have hovered in a narrow range ($1.7-$1.9 trillion) since 2011, and this will likely remain true through 2027. In 2022, revenues were $1.78T, and will grow an average annual rate of 1.8% to reach $1.95T by 2027.
Capex continues to vary with technology upgrade cycles (e.g. 5G) and government actions (e.g. newly issued spectrum, or rural fiber subsidies). In 2022, capex totaled $322B, or 18.1% of revenues; that’s an all-time high capital intensity, for coverage timeframe (2011-present). Capex will decline slightly through 2025, though, and then rise modestly again to reach $321B in 2027, which would be a 16.5% capital intensity. US capex surged in 2022, but will drop dramatically in 2023; we already expected this, though, so the current forecast is not significantly different. Software capex is growing more slowly than expected, and now likely to remain under 20% of total capex for the forecast period.
Headcount in telecom is declining faster than expected, and now likely to fall below 4.2 million in 2027, from just under 4.6 million in 2022. Labor costs per head will revert to a growth trajectory in 2023, as telcos develop a more IT/software-centric workforce.
2. Webscalers: growth from webscale has lifted the overall network operator market over the last decade. Webscalers surged during COVID, by all measures – revenues, capex, employment. Demand for data center chips and related gear also surged. Now, parts of the sector are cutting back slightly.
In 2022, revenues were $2.23 trillion, up just 4% YoY, far less than the average growth of 12% per year from 2011-22. We expect revenues to grow at a ~6% CAGR through 2027. Webscale capex was $203B in 2022, a healthy increase from 2021; due in part to generative AI interest, capex will grow again in 2023 and 2024, dip for a couple years of capacity absorption, and then end 2027 at around $231B. A larger portion of this capex will be for Network/IT/software investments: around 46%, from 44% in 2022. R&D spending by webscalers will remain high but fall from the record-breaking level of 2022 (12.0% of revenues), to about 10% in 2027. As topline growth gets harder for webscalers, they will become more cost conscious and short-term oriented.
3. CNNOs: the carrier-neutral sector remains tiny, with just $95B in 2022 revenues, but will grow to about $132B by 2027. Webscalers and telcos alike will both rely more on CNNOs over time for expansion of their data center, tower and fiber footprints.
Telcos will continue to spin out portions of their infrastructure to third-parties – both traditional CNNOs, and joint ventures like Gigapower, the AT&T-Blackrock partnership. Total CNNO capex for 2022 was $34B, and will grow to about $45B by 2027; a large chunk of the CNNO sector’s expansion will be inorganic, though, via acquisition of existing assets from other sectors. By 2027, the CNNO sector will have under its management approximately 3.7 million cell towers (2022: 3.3M), 1,607 data centers (2022: 1,224), and 1.1M route miles of fiber (2022: 960K).
Source: MTN Consulting
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Market drivers, constraints and risk factors:
This forecast represents only a modest revision from the edition published in December 2022. Most of the realities facing the operator market today were anticipated by our last forecast. For instance, we already expected that service revenues were not growing for telcos, and that 5G device sales distorted the market; an MTN Consulting report published in 2Q23 confirmed this fact, and supports a more cautious outlook for telco spending. We also thought that open RAN was overhyped, and was not likely to change the capex calculus for most established mobile operators. The 2023 dip in US telco capex was baked into our old forecast. The one big sector-specific change from the last forecast to this one is, the recent spike in interest in generative AI. This is a plus for the webscale market’s capex outlook, even if new revenue models are unclear and government regulations will slow adoption.
What about the macroeconomic climate? Wars, economic growth, inflation, interest rates, climate change, etc. Russia’s war on Ukraine remains ongoing, but hasn’t expanded to new countries. China has not invaded Taiwan as of yet, although this is a serious risk over the 5-year forecast horizon. Global economic growth is weaker than historic averages – about 3% this year and next, per the IMF – but inflation is easing, and the IMF’s GDP growth outlook improved slightly from April to July 2023. Interest rates continue to rise; the US federal funds rate has risen from 3.83% to 5.08% between 12/22 and 7/23, and further increases seem likely. Rising interest rates were already assumed to modestly depress 2023-24 capex, though.
Climate change is the one macro area that is quite a bit different than 8 months ago. The news gets worse each week. Government action continues to be gradual and consensus is hard to achieve. Increasingly the pressure will be on private companies to make voluntary, verifiable changes in how they operate. This doesn’t impact the forecast directly, but will impact how operators spend their tech budgets, as we have discussed in separate reports. Energy, sustainability and climate change will continue to be key themes in MTN Consulting research.
References:
Nokia will manufacture broadband network electronics in U.S. for BEAD program
Nokia has become the first telecom company to announce the manufacturing of fiber-optic broadband network electronics products and optical modules in the U.S. for use in the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program.
Using thin strands of glass to transmit data with light, fiber-optic networks have become the backbone of today’s digital economy and are used to connect everything to fast, reliable gigabit data services. Seventy percent of fiber broadband lines in North America are powered by Nokia. Now, partnering with Sanmina Corporation, Nokia will manufacture in the U.S. several fiber-optic broadband products at Sanmina’s state-of-the-art manufacturing facility located in Pleasant Prairie, Kenosha County, Wisconsin, bringing up to 200 new jobs to the state.
By manufacturing fiber-optic technology in the U.S., Nokia will be able to supply its products and services to critical projects like BEAD that are focused on narrowing the digital divide, helping to further contribute to the nation’s economic growth and job creation. Having access to technology that is built in the U.S. is an important requirement for states and infrastructure players seeking to participate in BEAD and the $42.45bn of available funding allocated for broadband rollouts to unserved and underserved communities.
Pekka Lundmark, President and CEO of Nokia, said: “At Nokia, we create technology that helps the world act together. We are committed to connecting people and communities. However, many Americans still lack adequate connectivity, leaving them at a disadvantage when it comes to accessing work, education and healthcare. Programs like BEAD can change this. By bringing the manufacturing of our fiber-optic broadband access products to the U.S., BEAD participants will be able to work with us to bridge the digital divide. We look forward to bringing more Americans online.”
Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris, said: “President Biden and I are delivering on our promise to strengthen our economy by investing in working people, expanding domestic manufacturing, empowering small business owners, and rebuilding our nation’s infrastructure—today’s announcement is a direct result of this work. Our investments in broadband infrastructure are creating jobs in Wisconsin and across the nation, and increasing access to reliable, high-speed internet so everyone in America has the tools they need to thrive in the 21st century.”
U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, said: “President Biden promised to bring high-speed internet to every corner of America, and to do it with American workers and American-made equipment. This announcement is proof that he’s delivering on that promise. When we invest in American manufacturing and American jobs, there’s no limit to what we can achieve. Thanks to the President’s leadership, we’re going to connect everyone in America and create a strong and equitable economy that’s built for the future.”
Jure Sola, Chairman and CEO of Sanmina, said: “Sanmina has been manufacturing in the U.S. for more than forty years and we are excited to partner with Nokia to support their efforts to build robust and resilient high-tech fiber broadband networks that will connect people and societies. By continuing to invest in domestic manufacturing, Nokia and Sanmina will be able to help create a sustainable future for the industry, one that drives job growth and ensures the fiber products produced embody the quality and excellence associated with American manufacturing.”
Nokia fiber-optic broadband products manufactured in the U.S. will include:
- Optical Line Termination card for a modular Access Node
- A small form factor OLT
- OLT optical modules
- An “outdoor-hardened” Optical Network Terminal (ONT)
Resources and additional information
- Seven out of ten fiber broadband connections in North America are made through Nokia equipment.
- Nokia is the top supplier of fiber-optic broadband technology for service providers in the U.S.
- Nokia is the number one vendor for XGS-PON technology globally and in the U.S. market. XGS-PON can deliver up to 10 Gbps (Gigabits-per-second) broadband speeds to end-users. With 10 Gbps, you can download a 4K movie in less than 30 seconds or stream around 1,700 movies simultaneously.
- Nokia was the first to deploy 1, 10 and 25 Gigabit fiber-optic broadband networks in the U.S. with the Electric Power Board (EPB) in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
- Website: More about funding opportunities and Nokia broadband solutions
- Infograph: Why Fiber Broadband is Essential
- Article: U.S. Broadband Infrastructure Funding explained
- Video: Explaining the limitless speeds for fiber broadband
- https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2023/08/03/nokia-first-to-announce-manufacturing-of-broadband-network-electronics-products-for-bead-program-in-us/
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
August 16, 2023 Addendum:
Nokia announced today its partnership with Fabrinet to become the first telecom vendor to manufacture fiber broadband optical modules in the U.S. for use in the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program.
Starting in 2024, Nokia’s next generation, multi-rate optical modules for Optical Line Terminals (OLTs) will be produced at Fabrinet’s state-of-the- art manufacturing facility located in Santa Clara, California, bringing high-tech innovation and additional jobs to the country.
This news builds on Nokia’s recent announcement that they will produce fiber-optic broadband network electronic products in Kenosha, Wisconsin – expanding Nokia’s list of products and solutions for networks rollouts using BEAD or other funding to help bridge the digital divide.
Dell’Oro: Broadband Equipment Spending to exceed $120B from 2022 to 2027
Dell’Oro Group predicts the broadband equipment market will surpass $120 billion in cumulative spending between 2022 and 2027. The market research firm says sales of PON equipment for fiber-to-the-home deployments, cable broadband access equipment, and fixed wireless CPE will show a 0.2% Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2027. Service providers continue to expand their fiber and DOCSIS 3.1/4.0 networks, while also increasing the reliability and sustainability of their broadband access networks.
“After three consecutive years of tremendous broadband network expansions and upgrades, 2023 is expected to show a return to normalized levels of spending,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President of Broadband Access and Home Networking research at Dell’Oro Group. “After 2023, spending is expected to increase through 2026 and 2027, driven by 25 Gbps and 50 Gbps PON, Fixed Wireless CPE, as well as DAA and DOCSIS 4.0 deployments.”
Labor markets are “still being challenged” and a number of fiber based network operators (AT&T, Altice USA, Frontier) have reduced their expansion plans and homes passed targets. “To close out 2022 we did see a significant uptake in equipment purchases, and what happened there was supply chains appeased. A lot of orders that had been on the books for a long time have been fulfilled.”
Network equipment vendors are working through that inventory they had built up while taking on “additional equipment purchases.
Additional highlights from the Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year July 2023 Forecast Report:
- PON equipment revenue is expected to grow from $11.8 B in 2022 to $13.3 B in 2027, driven largely by XGS-PON deployments in North America, EMEA, and CALA.
- Revenue for Cable Distributed Access Equipment (Virtual CCAP, Remote PHY Devices, Remote MACPHY Devices, and Remote OLTs) is expected to reach $1.6 B by 2027, as operators ramp their DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber deployments.
- Revenue for Fixed Wireless CPE is expected to reach $2.7 B by 2027, led by shipments of 5G sub-6GHz and 5G Millimeter Wave units.
- Revenue for Residential Wi-Fi Routers will surpass $5.2 B in 2027, owing to massive shipments of Wi-Fi 7 units.
“Which isn’t going to float to manufacturers until you know, late 2024, really into 2025,” he said. “I think in the interim, XGS-PON in the European market is certainly going to catch up. We’re also seeing considerable growth in XGS-PON deployments now in China.”
In Dell’Oro’s five-year forecast published in January, Heynen expected fixed wireless subscriber growth, particularly in North America, would “start to moderate” beginning in 2024, due to factors like “capacity issues and fiber expansion.”
Heynen has increased his revenue predictions for the fixed wireless CPE market – which he previously tipped would hit $2.2 billion in five years – and now predicts subscriber growth to continue into 2025.
“Part of that is because of the net reduction in homes passed for fiber,” he said. “In the meantime, fixed wireless will be able to cover more ground while the operators who are building out fiber kind of extend their overall deployment plans.”
Further, operators like T-Mobile and Verizon “are seeing fixed wireless as a way to secure broadband subscribers away from cable operators. The U.S. market is really dynamic in terms of how services can be marketed.”
The Dell’Oro Group Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year Forecast Report provides a complete overview of the Broadband Access market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and port/unit shipments for PON, Cable, Fixed Wireless, and DSL equipment. Covered equipment includes Converged Cable Access Platforms (CCAP), Distributed Access Architectures (DAA), DSL Access Multiplexers (DSLAMs), PON Optical Line Terminals (OLTs), Customer Premises Equipment ([CPE] for Cable, DSL, PON, Fixed Wireless), along with Residential WLAN Equipment, including Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 7 Gateways and Routers. For more information about the report, please contact [email protected].
Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, security, enterprise networks, data center infrastructure markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions. For more information, contact Dell’Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit www.delloro.com.
References:
https://www.fiercetelecom.com/telecom/broadband-equipment-market-eclipse-120b-2027-delloro
Dell’Oro: XGS, 25G, and Early 50G PON Rollouts to Fuel Broadband Spending
Dell’Oro: Bright Future for Campus Network As A Service (NaaS) and Public Cloud Managed LAN
Dell’Oro: FWA revenues on track to advance 35% in 2022 led by North America
Dell’Oro: PONs boost Broadband Access; Total Telecom & Enterprise Network Equipment Markets
Dell’Oro: U.S. suppliers ~20% of global telecom equipment market; struggling in RAN business
Futuriom and Dell’Oro weigh in on SD-WAN and SASE market: single vendor solutions prevail
Openreach deploys Adtran’s FSP 3000 open optical transport system
Adtran today announced that Openreach, the UK’s largest wholesale broadband network, has deployed its FSP 3000 open optical transport technology to enable its new Optical Spectrum Access 100G Single enterprise service.
Openreach’s new product offers a dedicated fiber link that empowers more UK businesses to harness point-to-point 100Gbit/s data transport. The solution also brings efficiency benefits that reduce capital and operational expenditure. The latest collaboration builds on more than a decade of successful partnership between Adtran and Openreach.
“Corporate cloud applications and other data-intensive tasks such as data center backhaul are fueling a growing demand for bandwidth. Adtran’s scalable optical technology enables us to offer a managed, high-speed service that satisfies that demand at a highly competitive price point,” said Simon Williams, head of optical products at Openreach.
“With no filters or amplifiers required, our Optical Spectrum Access 100G Single service offers secure and always-on optical services that can transport enormous amounts of data. We’re also making dedicated, uncomplicated and customizable access available in a slimmed-down package that’s even easier to manage.”
Adtran’s FSP 3000 technology is helping Openreach deliver managed 100G connectivity to UK businesses. (Photo: Business Wire)
Openreach’s Optical Spectrum Access 100G Single offers a choice of point-to-point Ethernet links at 100Gbit/s or 10 separate channels at 10Gbit/s. Built on Adtran’s scalable, open FSP 3000 optical transport technology, the service empowers Openreach to meet the growing demand for data-intensive cloud-based applications. Engineered for operational simplicity, Adtran’s compact and highly efficient FSP 3000 platform offers a dedicated fiber link ensuring low latency, consistent service quality and unparalleled network reliability for Openreach’s customers.
“Our FSP 3000 technology gives Openreach a powerful optical transport solution that efficiently delivers high-bandwidth services for enterprise customers. Using the Optical Spectrum Access 100G Single service, businesses can now smoothly manage substantial data transfers, even during peak operational hours,” commented Stuart Broome, GM of EMEA sales at Adtran. “We have a great track record of partnering with Openreach to advance digital transformation across the UK. It’s a relationship based on trust and a shared dedication to deliver for customers. Together, we’re providing extra capacity and value for more businesses.”
About Adtran:
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN and FSE: QH9) is the parent company of Adtran, Inc., a leading global provider of open, disaggregated networking and communications solutions that enable voice, data, video and internet communications across any network infrastructure. From the cloud edge to the subscriber edge, Adtran empowers communications service providers around the world to manage and scale services that connect people, places and things. Adtran solutions are used by service providers, private enterprises, government organizations and millions of individual users worldwide. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is also the largest shareholder of Adtran Networks SE, formerly ADVA Optical Networking SE. Find more at Adtran, LinkedIn and Twitter.
References:
BT’s CEO: Openreach Fiber Network is an “unstoppable machine” reaching 9.6M UK premises now; 25M by end of 2026
Adtran showcases coherent innovation at OFC 2023: FSP 3000 open line system & coherent 100ZR
Openreach on benefit of FTTP in UK; Full Fiber rollouts increasing
Analysts: Combined ADTRAN & ADVA will be a “niche player”