Author: Alan Weissberger
Omdia: Global smartphone shipments decline in 2Q23 for 8th consecutive quarter
According to Omdia, smartphone shipments totaled 265,9 million units in the second quarter of 2023. This represents a decline of 9.5% compared to the previous year and a decrease of 1.2% compared to the previous quarter. This is the eighth consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline in overall smartphone shipments.
The three largest OEMs, Apple, Samsung and Xiaomi, all saw their shipments fall more than 10% from 2Q22 to 2Q23.
Samsung had the most shipments in 2Q23, reporting 53.3 million shipments. This is a 11.5% dip from 1Q23, following the release of the S23-series, but more worryingly is a 14.3% fall year-on-year. This result follows the weak demand for mid/low-end smartphones due to the ongoing economic recession, and sales of Samsung’s Galaxy A series significantly declining. Despite this, Samsung smartphones maintained its market share of 20%, and its position as the largest player in the smartphone industry.
Apple had a big quarter-on-quarter fall following a successful 1Q23 for its iPhone 14 series. It recorded 43.2 million shipments, a 24.6% fall from 1Q23 and a 11.7% fall year-on-year from 2Q22. As such, Apple’s market share has fallen back down to its usual level for the second quarter of each year, at 16%. While it previously seemed that Apple was more resilient to the negative down-winds of the economy, it has now begun to feel the squeeze.
“Apple has strong sales of premium models such as the iPhone 14 Pro and Pro Max, while the standard and Plus models sluggish sales compared to their predecessors. Normally, from the second quarter, the standard model should drive up the overall quantity, but this year it is different. Demand for Pro and Pro Max is increasing, especially among high-income consumers.” said Jusy Hong, Senior Research Manager at Omdia.
Xiaomi’s shipments continue to fall globally, falling to 33.2 million, a 15.7% fall year-on-year – from 39.4 million in 2Q22. It still occupies the third spot globally but is facing stiff competition from other Chinese OEMs Oppo and vivo. The weak Indian market remains a problem for Xiaomi, as their biggest market. However, it is further establishing itself in Western Europe, something many other Chinese brands have failed to do.
Oppo Group (including OnePlus) recorded 25.0 million shipments in 1Q23, a fall of 10.5% from the previous year. This fall isn’t as far as Xiaomi’s and as a result, Xiaomi’s lead over Oppo Group has diminished from 11.5 million in 2Q22 to just 8.3 million in 2Q23.
Transsion Holding has recorded a combined total of 24.5 million – a 38.4% increase year-on-year from the 17.7 million shipped in 2Q22. This pushes Transsion Holdings ahead of vivo to be the fifth largest smartphone OEM in 2Q23, coming after a period of long stagnation as it was digesting the inventories from 1Q23. Its efforts to expand into more markets is also proving successful.
Zaker Li, Omdia Principal Analyst says, ‘The main reason for the increase in shipments was that Transsion completed inventory adjustment in the first quarter this year and increased supply of new products from 2Q. Transsion is targeting the low-end smartphone market in more countries in Asia and Oceania.’
Hong concludes: “The smartphone industry remains in a slump, and we are expecting the market to contract year-on-year until 3Q23. But there is hope for a recovery in the fourth quarter this year. Apple and Samsung have both faced challenges and have revised their targets down as a result. But these problems will ease come the end of the year and into 2024. Inflation and the resulting squeeze on wage packets and the economy is already easing globally, and high inventory levels is already being tackled by many OEMs. The growing popularity of recycled smartphones is hindering the growth of new smartphone shipments. In particular, it is the main reason for the recent decline in demand in the mid-range smartphone market. Overall shipment forecasts for this year have been revised down over the past several months. However, we expect the smartphone shipments will also recover as the economy recovers.”
References:
IDC: Global smartphone market will remain challenged through 1st half of 2023
GfK: Global telecom market (x-North America) posts 9.7% revenue drop; smartphone revenues -10.2% in 2022
Omdia and IDC: Samsung regains lead in global smartphone market
Trendforce: Global Smartphone Market to Reach 1.36 Billion Units in 2021 as Samsung regains #1 position
Counterpoint & Canalys: Global Smartphone Market Shows Signs of Recovery in Q3-2020
TPG, Ericsson launch AI-powered analytics, troubleshooting service for 4G/5G Mobile, FWA, and IoT subscribers
Australia telco TPG Telecom and Ericsson today announced a new multi-year agreement to deliver an Australian-first cloud-native and AI-powered analytics tool to pinpoint and improve mobile network performance for customers. Based on Ericsson Expert Analytics and EXFO Adaptive Service Assurance, the solution gives TPG Telecom’s Technology, Network and Care teams an in-depth, end-to-end understanding of subscriber’s experience at an individual level. Through the new agreement, TPG Telecom will gain insights from its 4G and 5G Mobile, Fixed Wireless Access and IoT subscribers using smart data collection with embedded intelligence to predict, prioritise, and resolve performance issues as they arise in real-time.
These insights will enable TPG Telecom to react quicker to network issues, improve performance and reduce the need for infrastructure-based diagnoses, allowing the telco to enhance its service experience for customers.
The solution integrates Ericsson Expert Analytics, EXFO adaptive service assurance and Ericsson software probes, provided as part of Ericsson’s dual-mode 5G Core, to deliver end-to-end network visibility and reduced total costs.
TPG Telecom is the first in Australia and one of the first communication service providers (CSP) globally to deploy Ericsson Expert Analytics in a commercial network using cloud-native technologies. As a cloud-native software, its embedded scalability, agility and resilience means it is designed to flexibly handle TPG Telecom’s requirements as its network and use-cases evolve, adapting to any unexpected challenges.
TPG Telecom General Manager Cloud/Infrastructure NW Services, Chris Tsigros, said: “TPG Telecom is committed to investing in cutting edge technology designed to provide superior network experience to every single one of our customers. The analytics and troubleshooting solution we’re implementing with Ericsson will help ensure we deliver a great experience for our customers. This new technology will change the way in which the TPG Telecom customer care team interacts with our customers, leading to greater effectiveness and increased customer satisfaction. It’s just another way we’re putting our customers first.”
Emilio Romeo, Head of Ericsson, Australia and New Zealand, says: “Embarking on this multi-year deployment of advanced analytics and troubleshooting capabilities with TPG Telecom further demonstrates our commitment to bringing the best mobile telecommunications experience to all Australians. It is the latest in a long history of working side by side with TPG Telecom to bring groundbreaking technology to Australia and a new level of service experience to the Australian people. With the Ericsson Expert Analytics solution implementation, and the real-time access to the data from the dual-mode 5G Core thanks to its built-in software probes, TPG Telecom can gain greater network visibility at a lower cost, passing on the benefits to its customers as they enjoy its services across the country.”
The initial deployment phase focused on acquiring profound insights and troubleshooting capabilities through the software probes built into Ericsson’s cloud-native dual-mode 5G Core. The state-of-the-art solution delivered to TPG adopts an innovative approach that combines probing and event-based monitoring, ensuring rapid and effective issue resolution.
One of the standout features of this deployed solution is its capacity to provide comprehensive troubleshooting across the entire network, all within a unified application. TPG benefits from a range of advanced functionalities, including On-Demand Troubleshooting and robust filtering capabilities, significantly expediting the identification and resolution of network challenges.
With this implementation, TPG Telecom gains the ability to trace and monitor subscriber sessions handled by the core network, which forms the foundation of TPG Telecom’s mobile network. Currently, the solution successfully monitors approximately 5 million subscribers, and its coverage continues to expand
The full solution will continue to be rolled out in phases of further enhancements, and will give TPG Telecom the ability to automatically detect issues from captured network and subscriber insights. TPG Telecom will also benefit from AI-powered recommendations for correction of any network or customer issues found.
Ericsson Expert Analytics is an open system designed for ease of integration in multi-vendor hybrid environments. The software solution is powered by anomaly detection techniques based on machine learning and artificial intelligence, transforming data at scale into actionable insights for better business outcomes. It is designed and used to analyze the real-time network data of more than 250 million subscribers of mobile telecommunications operators all over the world.
The solution follows the 2021 completion of the virtualisation of TPG Telecom’s core network and a new partnership to deploy Ericsson’s dual-mode 5G Core for standalone 5G networks.
About TPG TELECOM:
TPG Telecom Limited, formerly named Vodafone Hutchison Australia Limited, was listed on the Australian Securities Exchange on 30 June 2020. On 13 July 2020, this newly listed company merged with TPG Corporation Limited, formerly named TPG Telecom, to bring together the resources of two of Australia’s largest telecommunications companies, creating the leading challenger full-service telecommunications provider. TPG Telecom is home to some of Australia’s most-loved brands including Vodafone, TPG, iiNet, AAPT, Internode, Lebara and felix. https://www.tpgtelecom.com.au/
Resources:
Securing 5G experience with software probes
Data and Analytics for better business outcomes
Cloud native is transforming the telecom industry
TPG Telecom and Ericsson announce 5G Core partnership for standalone 5G networks
TPG Telecom’s ground-breaking cloud transformation
References:
https://www.ericsson.com/en/press-releases/7/2023/tpg-telecom-and-ericsson-launch-australian-first-analytics-and-troubleshooting-solution-to-boost-network-performance-for-customers
Cloud Service Providers struggle with Generative AI; Users face vendor lock-in; “The hype is here, the revenue is not”
Global Telco AI Alliance to progress generative AI for telcos
Park Place Technologies on network monitoring, predictive fault diagnosis and repair; Entuity acquisition adds analytics
Bain & Co, McKinsey & Co, AWS suggest how telcos can use and adapt Generative AI
Forbes: Cloud is a huge challenge for enterprise networks; AI adds complexity
BT and Ericsson wideband FDD trial over live 5G SA network in the UK
BT and Ericsson have successfully demonstrated 5G transmission using a wideband FDD (frequency division duplex) radio carrier (over 20 MHz) within a sub-3 GHz spectrum band. According to BT and Ericsson, this accomplishment is a major advancement in the progress of 5G networks, with implications that will greatly impact network capacity and performance.. The trial used existing Ericsson commercial hardware, including Baseband 6648 and Radio 4419. The software feature ‘Large Bandwidth Support Low-Band’ was activated to facilitate the testing, and Handsets powered by MediaTek Dimensity chips, specifically the MediaTek M80 Release-16 modem.
Source: BT Group
The trial was conducted on BT’s live network (EE brand name) in Bristol and Potters Bar, UK. It showcased the benefits of configuring a wide carrier bandwidth of 50 MHz (50 MHz downlink + 50 MHz uplink) within the 2.6 GHz band, along with downlink aggregation using two TDD (time division duplex) carriers in the 3.5 GHz band. This configuration led to a capacity uplift of over three times compared to a single FDD carrier. According to the joint statement, the trial also evaluated an intermediate carrier bandwidth of 30 MHz.
This result is particularly significant for the uplink in 5G Standalone (5G SA) networks. According to BT, currently, 5G SA relies on a single carrier for the uplink, but this trial demonstrates the potential to significantly boost uplink capacity using a wider carrier bandwidth. The technology partners stated that enabling 5G expansion in FDD bands is a crucial step in the rollout of EE’s 5G SA network. 5G SA is expected to offer superior experiences for consumers and businesses, meeting the increasing demand for data-driven applications like cloud gaming, virtual reality (VR), and emerging edge technologies. This achievement has the potential to enable higher capacity, improved network performance, and enhanced user experiences.
Greg McCall, Chief Networks Officer, BT Group, commented: “This breakthrough is the latest example of our commitment to maximizing the full potential of 5G for our customers. As network quality and accessibility improve, so too will innovation and the 5G services ecosystem. Demonstrating new network capabilities such as those announced today is critical to achieving this goal, and also paves the way to ensuring that 5G SA delivers new possibilities for our customers.”
Evangelia Tzifa, Chief Technology Officer, Networks & Managed Services, for Ericsson UK and Ireland said: “This is a great step forward for the deployment of 5G Standalone for EE in the UK. Ericsson innovative software capabilities such as large bandwidths for NR FDD as well as NR Carrier Aggregation enable a solid foundation for improved end user experience and network performance. This is a fundamental link for business success and the evolution to next-generation connectivity across the country.”
Dr. Ho-Chi Hwang, General Manager of Wireless Communication Systems and Partnerships at MediaTek, said: “This remarkable achievement of boosting uplink capacity is a fundamental step for the evolution from 5G Non-Standalone to 5G Standalone networks. By supporting an uplink connection in a single FDD carrier with a wider bandwidth, MediaTek Dimensity 5G chipsets already meet the surging demand for uplink data in a new era of mobile applications”.
References:
BT, Ericsson Wideband FDD Trial Showcase Breakthrough 5G SA Performance
Cloud infrastructure services market grows; AI will be a major driver of future cloud service provider investments
According to Canalys, worldwide cloud infrastructure services spending increased 16% to $72.4 billion in Q2 2023. This growth rate represents a decline against the previous quarter’s 19%, as the market feels the effect of spending pressures, though slower growth is also a consequence of the market’s greater size. In Q2 2023, the top three vendors, AWS, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud, collectively grew 20% – down from 22% in Q1 – to account for 65% of total spending. While AWS and Microsoft both saw a deceleration in growth, Google Cloud’s growth rate remained stable compared with the previous quarter, at 31%.
The cloud infrastructure services market is feeling the impact of pressure on customer spending, the analyst firm noted, but pointed out that the slower growth is also a result of the increased size of the market.
Although AI hasn’t yet had a meaningful impact on revenues, there is plenty of cause for optimism. Canalys says AI represents a major driver of cloud investment in the future, and all the major cloud vendors continue to invest heavily in AI technologies. However, cloud service providers will have to be selective when deciding who to partner with in this market.
In the current business landscape, where emphasis is placed on cost control, cloud vendors must secure a significant influx of new customers and workloads to drive revenue growth. The emergence of AI technology is introducing new cloud workloads and is set to fuel massive demand for computing capacity, creating new opportunities for cloud growth. Notably in this quarter, both AWS and Microsoft launched new AI-oriented partner programs, recognizing the importance of collaborating with partners to drive customers’ use of their AI products.
“The most common collaboration model involves partners contributing their industry expertise, business process knowledge and data analytics experience within relationships,” said Yi Zhang, Research Analyst at Canalys. “Cloud providers, in turn, offer partners early exposure to their emerging technologies and provide technical support.”
“In the meantime, vendors need to separate the wheat from the chaff when it comes to driving their AI strategies through partners,” said Alex Smith, VP at Canalys. “That means focusing on partners that are building service practices around AI, engaging in sales and marketing initiatives that focus on AI, producing original thought leadership and compelling case studies around AI applications, and selling solutions that are embedded with AI capabilities. It’s these partners that will assume a leading role in steering companies toward being leaders in this field.”
Amazon Web Services (AWS) continued to lead the cloud infrastructure services market in Q2 2023, accounting for 30% of total spend, an increase of 12% year on year. AWS’s growth has more than halved since the same period last year. In the face of subdued revenue growth, AWS is actively increasing its investments in AI. It invested US$100 million in a new generative AI program, which was launched in June 2023. As part of the program, the AWS Generative AI Innovation Center will serve as a hub for free workshops and training and is expected to help enterprises accelerate the development of generative AI-based applications while connecting AWS’ technology with customers and partners. Recent announcements from AWS reveal that thousands of customers are engaging with its new AI service and, concurrently, AWS has established new partnerships with Omnicom and 3M Health Information Systems.
Microsoft Azure accounted for 26% of the market after growing 26% annually, positioning it as the second-largest cloud service provider in Q2 2023. Business performance is expected to remain steady, given the 19% increase in its cloud order backlog, which reached US$224 billion in Q2 2023. It has seen significant momentum in its Azure OpenAI Service, winning noteworthy clients including Ikea, Volvo Group and Zurich Insurance. In light of the projected surge in AI demand, it introduced the Microsoft AI Cloud Partner Program during its global partner event, Microsoft Inspire 2023. This aims to encourage Microsoft’s partner ecosystem to develop solutions that use Microsoft’s AI technology. Microsoft aims to ensure a smooth transition for its existing partners, automatically enrolling them in the new program while retaining their previous benefits and designations.
Google Cloud grew 31% year on year in Q2 2023, the strongest growth of the top three hyperscalers, to capture 9% of the cloud market. Its approach to extending the depreciation period for servers and network equipment helped control operating costs and bolstered Google Cloud’s profitability. Google Cloud’s partner ecosystem continues to provide support in the development of its generative AI applications. Hundreds of ISVs and SaaS providers, including Box, Salesforce and Snorkel, along with GSIs, have committed to training over 150,000 individuals on Google Cloud’s Generative AI. Google Cloud claims to command the allegiance of over 70% of burgeoning tech startups that specialize in generative AI. This roster features standout names such as Cohere, Jasper and Typeface, exemplifying the trust startups place in Google Cloud’s AI capabilities.
Canalys defines cloud infrastructure services as those services that provide infrastructure-as-a-service and platform-as-a-service, either on dedicated hosted private infrastructure or shared public infrastructure. This excludes software-as-a-service expenditure directly but includes revenue generated from the infrastructure services being consumed to host and operate them.
For more information, please contact:
Alex Smith: [email protected]
Yi Zhang: [email protected]
References:
https://canalys.com/newsroom/global-cloud-services-q2-2023
Canalys: Cloud marketplace sales to be > $45 billion by 2025
Global Cloud VPN Market Report: Rising Demand for Cloud-based Security Services
Synergy & IDC: Hosted and Cloud Services are driving the Unified Communications & Collaboration Markets
Forbes: Cloud is a huge challenge for enterprise networks; AI adds complexity
IDC: Cloud Infrastructure Spending +13.5% YoY in 4Q-2021 to $21.1 billion; Forecast CAGR of 12.6% from 2021-2026
Strong growth for global cloud infrastructure spending by hyperscalers and enterprise customers
Globe Telecom, HPE to deploy 5G SA network in the Philippines
Globe Telecom in the Philippines has partnered with Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) to roll out the first Private 5G Standalone (5G SA) network in the Philippines. According to Globe, this network introduces a new era of connectivity options for businesses, elevating cellular connectivity to unprecedented levels.
“The breakthrough private 5G standalone betwork brings us closer to a digitally transformed enterprise landscape,” said Yoke Kong Seow, chief technical advisor at Globe.
“5G offers a lot of surprising use cases. Exploring it and doing customer pilot deployment will bring meaningful results and opportunities. This successful demonstration of the first Private 5G SA Network heralds another innovation for our enterprise customers to experience,” he said.
The partnership with HPE offers flexibility in building the Private 5G network. Enterprises can choose to host the solution in the cloud, acquire a complete solution including HPE edge servers and Athonet software, or just license the software to integrate into existing infrastructure.
“With our Athonet technology, we are enabling a new era of connectivity for businesses,” said Loh Khai Peng, vice president for APAC sales at HPE. “HPE is proud to partner with Globe on this groundbreaking endeavor, providing solutions that are not only tailored for specific needs but are also scalable, secure, and highly reliable,” he said.
Built with technology from Athonet, a subsidiary of HPE, the network will deliver cellular connectivity to enterprises and organizations across the Philippines as an alternative or complementary solution to Wi-Fi and public mobile technologies.
Globe said, the Athonet 5G SA Starter Kit is a complete package with SIM cards, a radio, and a mobile core network, all housed within a convenient briefcase. This plug-and-play Private 5G SA Network offers features, including high-quality video and audio streaming, as well as lightning-fast download speeds of up to 780 Mbps and upload speeds of up to 150 Mbps.
Moreover, the kit operates as a stand-alone network, making it an ideal solution for businesses seeking reliable cellular connectivity. Additionally, this Private 5G SA Network works seamlessly with business applications via its N6 interface.
Private 5G SA networks offer improved security, customizable options, low latency, and high capacity. These networks excel at handling large-scale IoT deployments, especially for mission-critical operations.
According to Globe, the collaboration with HPE offers flexible Private 5G network solutions, including cloud-based options, edge servers with Athonet software, and customizable choices for scalability.
Globe’s Private 5G SA Network will redefine the future of businesses in the Philippines with increased productivity, cost-efficiency, and improved quality.
References:
Globe Telecom, HPE to roll out 5G SA network in the Philippines
Globe to Deploy Philippines’ First Private 5G Network With HPE
BroadbandNow Research: Best & Worst States for Broadband Access
A recent study by BroadbandNow Research has assessed the best and worst states in the U.S. for broadband internet access in 2023. The study evaluated each state and the District of Columbia based on various factors such as access to wired or fixed wireless broadband, access to low-priced broadband, median download speed, and median upload speed.
Key Findings:
- Availability of low-priced broadband has increased across the U.S. There is now only 1 state with less than 20% of the population having access to a broadband plan for $60 per month or less (down from 25 states last year). Having said that, in only one state, Wyoming, more than half of residents have access to such a plan.
- Latency (round trip time) is a measure of responsiveness–the time between when you click something and when you get a response–and it’s critical for a smooth internet experience, especially for real-time interactions such as gaming or video calls. There is a huge geographic disparity between states that do well in this metric, like New York or Washington with median round trip times less than 7.5 milliseconds, and states that do poorly, like Hawai’i and Massachusetts with median round trip times greater than 61 milliseconds.
- Delaware is the best state for broadband internet, with 46.2% of its population having access to low-priced broadband and a median download speed of 96.1 Mbps. On the other hand, Alaska ranked at the bottom of the list, with only 20% of its population having access to affordable broadband and a median download speed of 58.5 Mbps.
- We support changing the definition of broadband speeds from 25Mbps down and 3Mbps up to 100Mbps down and 25Mbps up, but we’re a long way away from widespread access to those speeds. Nationally, only 39% of Americans are getting 100Mbps down, and only 25% are getting 25Mbps up.
10 Best States for Broadband
10 Worst States for Broadband
According to the study, there is only one state, Nevada, with less than 20% of its population having access to a broadband plan for $60 per month or less. This is a significant drop from the 25 states that had such limited access last year.
In the Tri-State area, Illinois secured the 14th spot with 95.7% of its residents having access to wired or fixed wireless broadband. Additionally, 31.4% of the population had access to low-priced broadband. Illinois also boasted a median download speed of 85.3 Mbps, surpassing the national median.
Indiana ranked 23rd overall, with an impressive download speed of 85.7 Mbps. 31.4% of its population also had access to low-priced broadband. However, the state fell short in terms of overall broadband access, with only 92.8% of residents having access to wired or fixed wireless broadband.
Kentucky landed at the 36th spot, with a mere 25% of its population having access to affordable broadband. In an effort to improve access, Governor Andy Beshear, Senator Mitch McConnell, and other lawmakers secured over $1 billion in funding for broadband access in June, marking the largest public investment in high-speed internet in the state’s history.
References:
GAO: U.S. Broadband Benchmark Speeds Too Slow; FCC Should Analyze Small Business Speed Needs
FCC proposes 100 Mbps download as U.S. minimum broadband speed
Analysys Mason & Light Reading: cellular data traffic growth rates are decreasing
According to Analysys Mason, the telecoms industry is fixated on the idea of a constant and dramatic increase in data consumption by cellular network users. However, the growth rates are no longer increasing. The annual growth in cellular data traffic slowed, worldwide, from more than 90% in 2018 to 34% in 2021 and again to around 22% in 2022.
These figures include a surge in cellular data traffic generated by customers with fixed–wireless access (FWA) services. FWA customers (due to time spent watching TV and video streaming) often generated more than 200–500GB per month which is 16 times more than an average mobile cellular data customer, in 2022.
This means there is an even steeper decline in the growth of data traffic generated by mobile handsets, decreasing from an annual rate of 104% in 2018 to 21% in 2022.
Figure 1: Cellular data traffic growth rates by region, 2017–2022
CEE = Central and Eastern Europe, DVAP = Developed Asia–Pacific, EMAP = Emerging Asia–Pacific, LATAM = Latin America, MENA = Middle East and North Africa, NA =North America, SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa, WE = Western Europe
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
From Light Reading:
- Data traffic on Openreach, the UK’s main broadband network, grew just 3% last year after rising 25% in 2021 and 127% in 2020 (the year of mass pandemic induced lockdowns).
- A similar trend is observable across the various fixed and mobile networks operated by Spain’s Telefónica. Traffic surged 43% in 2020, but the rate of increase dipped to 11% last year. If the trend persists, the petabytes will soon be dropping.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
5G was expected to propel cellular data usage onto a new growth trajectory. However, this is not taking place at all.
Following the launch of 5G services, operators reported very high initial 5G data usage rates. This was primarily caused by the heaviest LTE users upgrading to 5G handsets and services. This migration simultaneously caused a decline in the average traffic generated by users with LTE handsets. The impact of the early adopters was subsequently diluted as less-intensive users upgrade to 5G handsets and services. Then, organic growth in usage started to mask some of the effects of the migration. Over time, though, we can look at whether the total growth in usage across all handset types is sustained. South Korea is a good example to look to. In South Korea, there was an initial surge in data usage the year 5G was introduced, but this effect was short-lived. Average data use by subscribers with 5G handsets fell from its high starting point, became flat and then started to rise once more but only at a low single-digit rate. Average usage by LTE handset owners has been steadily decreasing. Overall, average data traffic growth across all handset types has slowed for 3 years in a row.
Figure 2: Cellular network data traffic growth, South Korea, December 2018–December 2022
| Monthly usage (MB) | December 2018 | December 2019 | December 2020 | December 2021 | December 2022 |
| 4G smartphone traffic per subscriber | 8177 | 9753 | 9650 | 8619 | 7591 |
| 5G smartphone traffic per subscriber | 27 282 | 26 744 | 26 834 | 27 589 | |
| 4G smartphone usage growth | 21% | 19% | –1% | –11% | –12% |
| 5G smartphone usage growth | –2% | 0% | 3% | ||
| Average growth (2G, 3G, 4G and 5G handsets) | 23% | 38% | 18% | 15% | 10% |
Source: Analysys Mason
Operators are currently using FWA to fill the gap between capacity and demand in their 5G networks, but the revenue per megabyte that they generate from FWA services is much lower than that for mobile cellular data services. Relying on FWA traffic to fill 5G networks will not satisfy mobile operators’ investors in the long run. Some operators will also need to limit FWA availability because without the careful management of FWA traffic on 5G networks, there could be negative impacts on the quality of service for non-FWA users.
Only new applications and services will unlock future annual growth rates of 30% or more. However, it is unlikely that the types of services that could significantly accelerate cellular data traffic growth will have a substantial near-term impact.
- Higher definition video and TV services could potentially drive a new wave of data usage. Device capability is an obstacle to this possibility, as most mobile handsets are either not capable of displaying high-definition content or the screen size is too small for users to see the difference. A surge in the use of tablets to view TV on mobile networks could change this – although tablet users tend to use Wi-Fi as their primary means of connectivity. A few mobile operators have introduced mobile cellular data packages that include subscriptions to on-demand TV. This has the potential to drive up data traffic, but there are limits to the amount of time people can spend watching TV when they are away from their homes. Lack of time is likely to prevent excessive mobile TV consumption away from the home. Within the home – even when they have unlimited mobile data packages – users don’t tend to switch to their mobile networks. They typically continue to use devices connected to their home fixed broadband and Wi-Fi for extended TV viewing.
- Connected cars have been regarded as a potential source of high-volume data traffic. But this will likely not happen soon. Most new cars equipped with a mobile connection still only have LTE capabilities, and most of those are only used for telematics. Some original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), as well as operators, have introduced service packages to encourage in-car use of services (based on embedded and aftermarket connections). Even still, usage volumes have been low even in luxury vehicles. Other potential drivers of traffic are C-V2X systems for intelligent transport networks and autonomous vehicles. But despite numerous tests and trials, C-V2X infrastructures are years away, and fully autonomous vehicles still have technical and regulatory hurdles to overcome before they are deployed in meaningful numbers.
- Metaverse services – including AR and VR, and services using haptics – have the potential to generate a high volume of data traffic. In the next 4 or 5 years, the number of users with AR and VR headsets is expected to reach 300–400 million , but faster take-up will be restricted by the cost of end-user equipment, and most image processing will be done using equipment within the home. Eventually, metaverse use cases could involve vast numbers of customers, with cloud processing of fully immersive environments and services requiring very low latency and very high bandwidth.
- However, most of the usage will take place indoors where a combination of fibre and Wi-Fi seems much more suited to the service requirements.
The volume of cellular data traffic is increasing in absolute terms, but the annual change measured in percentage terms is going to be much lower than what is has been historically. Analysys Mason’s new report Wireless network data traffic: worldwide trends and forecasts 2022–2028 evaluates the prospects for cellular data growth over the coming 5 years, with global cellular data traffic nearly tripling worldwide to 2.7ZB in 2028, with a limited metaverse uptick at the end of the period.
References:
https://www.analysysmason.com/research/content/articles/cellular-data-traffic-rdnt0/
Highlights of FCC Notice of Inquiry (NOI) on radio spectrum usage & how AI might be used
The U.S. Federal Communications Commission (FCC) is requesting input from the public on new technological approaches to assessing “real-time, non-Federal (government) spectrum usage, so that it has better insights into current technologies that might help the agency to manage spectrum and identify opportunities for spectrum sharing—including how artificial intelligence (AI) might be used.
This FCC Notice of Inquiry (NOI) was approved by all four members of the Commission. It states:
“Spectrum usage information is generally non-public and made available infrequently. As the radiofrequency (RF) environment grows more congested, however, we anticipate a greater need to consider such data to improve spectrum management. That is especially true as the burgeoning growth of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) offer revolutionary insights into large and complex datasets. Leveraging today’s tools to understand tomorrow’s commercial spectrum usage can help identify new opportunities to facilitate more efficient spectrum use, including
new spectrum sharing techniques and approaches to enable co-existence among users and services.”
Spectrum usage has been defined in various ways. In one technical paper, for instance, NTIA and NIST defined “band occupancy” as “the percentage of frequencies or channels in the band with a detected signal level that exceeds a default or user-defined threshold.”
“Right now, so many of our commercial spectrum bands are growing crowded,” said FCC Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel. “Hundreds of millions of wireless connections—from smartphones to medical sensors—are using this invisible infrastructure. And that number is growing fast. But congestion can make it harder to make room in our skies for new technologies and new services. Yet we have to find a way, because no one wants innovation to grind to a halt. To do this we need smarter policies, like efforts that facilitate more efficient use of this scarce resource. … Now enter AI. A large wireless provider’s network can generate several million performance measurements every minute. Using those measurements, machine learning can provide insights that help better understand network usage, support greater spectrum efficiency, and improve resiliency by making it possible to heal networks on their own.”
“[This] inquiry is a way to understand this kind of potential and help ensure it develops here in the United States first. “I believe we can do more to increase our understanding of spectrum utilization and support the development of AI tools in wireless networks,” she added.
Rosenworcel noted that some pioneering work on dynamic, cognitive radios was kick-started with the Defense Advanced Research Project’s three-year Spectrum Collaboration Challenge, which sought to develop software-defined radios’ capability to dynamically detect other spectrum users and work around them in a congested radio frequency environment.
The FCC pointed out in a statement that it generally doesn’t collect information on spectrum usage, and instead relies on intermittent data from third-party sources.
“As the radiofrequency environment becomes more congested, leveraging technologies such as artificial intelligence to understand spectrum usage and draw insights from large and complex datasets can help facilitate more efficient spectrum use, including new spectrum sharing techniques and approaches to enable co-existence among users and services,” the agency said, adding that the inquiry will explore the “feasibility, benefits, and limitations” of various ways to understand non-federal spectrum usage, as well as band- or service-specific considerations and various technical, practical or legal aspects that should be considered.
References:
https://www.fcc.gov/document/spectrum-usage-noi
https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/FCC-23-63A1.pdf
Saudi Arabia’s Stc Achieves 10 Gbps Speeds in 5G mmWave Trials
Saudi Arabia’s Stc (Saudi Telecom Company) Group announced the successful completion of the first live trials of advanced 5G technology in the Middle East and North Africa. The trials demonstrated speeds exceeding 10 Gbps using Millimeter Wave (mmWave) technology. The trials are an extension of the robust infrastructure of the advanced 5.5G network in the Kingdom
According to the company, these trials complement the existing advanced 5.5G network in the kingdom, enabling data transfer at new record speeds in a live working environment.
“This achievement signifies a new stage in facilitating digital transformation in the region and places the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia at the forefront of advanced nations in the field of telecommunications.”
The Kingdom’s residents can now anticipate faster and more efficient data connectivity than before. The company said that the success of these trials is an essential aspect of stc’s “Dare” strategy. The goal is to offer access to new services and enhance customer experiences to new heights, aligned with the Saudi Vision 2030 and supporting digital transformation in the region.
The latest progress in advanced 5G technology puts Saudi Arabia at the forefront of technological innovation in the region, paving the way for even more advancements. By adopting this technology, the country is preparing itself for upcoming developments and the digital age.
References:
Inside AT&T’s newly expanded $8 billion cost-reduction program and huge layoffs
As its stock price (“T”) trades at 30+ year lows, AT&T is under severe pressure to cut costs. Its wireless subscriber growth is slowing, new fiber take rates are lower, debt has increased by $6 billion to $143.3 billion, while the company faces a potentially costly ($B+) lead cable cleanup.
AT&T recently announced they will cut another $2 billion in expenses over the next three years, even after reaching a $6 billion cost reduction plan early. Largely through what AT&T called “surplussings,” rounds of layoffs have been conducted on a department level on nearly a monthly basis to reduce costs.
The Dallas-based company’s employment has shrunk this decade from a peak of 281,000 to less than 160,000 through the first half of this year. Since the beginning of 2021, AT&T has cut 74,130 employees, including through divestitures, or 32% of its total staff through June 30th.
The company added fewer customers than analysts’ expected in the second quarter of 2023. In the three months ended June 30th, AT&T added 326,000 mobile phone subscribers. AT&T has been offering free phones in order to fuel customer growth for several quarters. The appeal of those promotions may be wearing out. The company cautioned last month that the pace of subscriber gains had slowed due to competition from rivals and cable TV companies.
AT&T raised rates on its premium mobile plan to help boost revenue and is in the process of restructuring operations by reducing 350 offices across the U.S. to nine core locations with the main hubs in Dallas and Atlanta. The telco has told 60,000 managers that they need to show up in person to one of these locations, and some will face relocation decisions or be fired.
Chief executive John Stankey recently informed employees in an email about the departure of HR chief Angela Santone. She is one of only three female top executives at AT&T. During her tenure, Santone developed an internal “culture of connection” program. The idea was to echo one of Stankey’s themes of “connectivity,” the new simplified mission for the company as it returned to its telecommunications roots after a $100 billion ill-fated attempt to transform the company into a media rival of Walt Disney Co. and Netflix Inc.
“On behalf of AT&T’s leadership, I’d like to thank her for her support and commitment to driving these initiatives during a very challenging and important time of transition,” Stankey wrote in the email, which was confirmed by Bloomberg. AT&T declined to comment on Santone’s departure.
……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
