Author: Alan Weissberger
U.S. Launches National Spectrum Strategy and Industry Reacts
The U.S. Dept of Commerce has finally published a National Spectrum Strategy that could pave the way for 2,786MHz of frequencies to be repurposed for new use. That is nearly double NTIA’s initial target of 1,500 megahertz.
The frequencies in question, across five bands, will be studied for potential new uses, and the study could go either way. The next step will see the Biden-Harris administration develop and publish an Implementation Plan.
The spectrum target includes more than 1,600 megahertz of midband spectrum – a frequency range in high demand by the wireless industry for next-generation services.
As required by the Presidential Memorandum titled Modernizing United States Spectrum Policy and Establishing a National Spectrum Strategy, the Secretary of Commerce, through the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA), prepared this National Spectrum Strategy to both promote private-sector innovation and further the missions of federal departments and agencies, submitting it to the President through the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs, the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy, and the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy.
The Strategy reflects collaboration with the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), recognizing the FCC’s unique responsibilities with respect to non-Federal uses of spectrum, and coordination with other Federal departments and agencies (referred to collectively here as “agencies”).
The NTIA will study the following bands in the next two years, noting that the spectrum could support a range of uses, including mobile broadband (IMT), drones and satellite operations:
- 3.1 GHz-3.45 GHz
- 5.03 GHz-5.091 GHz
- 7.125 GHz-8.4 GHz
- 18.1 GHz-18.6 GHz
- 37.0 GHz-37.6 GHz
Note that for terrestrial IMT (3G, 4G, 5G), the only one of the above frequencies approved by ITU-R Radio Regulations in ITU-R M.1036 is 3.3 GHz-to-3.7 GHz frequency range. Please refer to my Comment in the box below this post.
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The goals of the Spectrum Strategy are to: drive technological innovation (including innovative spectrum sharing technologies); boost U.S. industrial competitiveness; protect the security of the American people; foster scientific advancements; promote digital equity and inclusion; and maintain U.S. leadership in global markets for wireless equipment and services, as well as innovative spectrum-sharing technologies. Dynamic spectrum sharing will be part of the plan.
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Industry Reactions to the Strategy:
“It is a critical first step, and we fully support their goal of making the 7/8 GHz band available for 5G wireless broadband and their decision to re-study all options for future full-power commercial access to the lower 3 GHz band,” said Meredith Attwell Baker, president and CEO of industry body the CTIA. “In order to meet growing consumer demand for 5G, close America’s widening 5G spectrum deficit and counter China’s global ambitions, America’s wireless networks need 1500 MHz of additional full power, licensed spectrum within the next ten years. Failure to make this spectrum available risks America’s economic competitiveness and national security,” Attwell Baker added.
“The plan released today will secure our digital future by eliminating the structural problems that hold back U.S. wireless innovation,” added Harold Feld, senior vice president of consumer advocacy group Public Knowledge.
“For six years, the United States has lacked a comprehensive spectrum strategy,” he said. “This lack of a national plan has created increasing tensions between the FCC’s efforts to meet our ever-expanding need for wireless capacity and federal agencies trying to carry out vital missions from weather forecasting to national security. These tensions, in turn, have compromised our ability to develop new wireless technologies and undermined our ability to maintain global leadership.”
“We hope this reallocation will help correct the midband spectrum imbalance that currently prioritizes unlicensed and federal uses – a disparity that fails to meet Americans’ ever-accelerating demand for mobile connectivity and neglects licensed spectrum’s place as the foundation of our wireless ecosystem,” AT&T’s Rhonda Johnson, EVP of federal regulatory relations, said.
“We don’t think the events of today should be thought of as anyone scoring a touchdown, but rather, moving the ball from one’s own 20-yard line to the opponents’ 40,” summarized the financial analysts at New Street Research in a note to investors Monday.
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Light Reading’s Mike Dano had 5 takeaways from NTIA’s Spectrum plan:
1. It’s evolutionary, not revolutionary.
2. It’s pretty boring.
3. It makes no clear decision on the lower 3GHz band.
4. Sharing, and other spectrum management technologies, are encouraged.
5. 6G is mentioned, but only obliquely.
References:
https://www.ntia.gov/issues/national-spectrum-strategy
https://telecoms.com/524821/us-spectrum-plan-eases-frequency-frustrations-to-an-extent/
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/five-takeaways-from-biden-s-new-national-spectrum-strategy
https://www.itu.int/en/ITU-R/information/Pages/emergency-bands.aspx
Gartner Forecast: Worldwide Public Cloud End-User Spending ~$679 Billion in 2024; GenAI to Support Industry Cloud Platforms
Worldwide end-user spending on public cloud services is forecast to grow 20.4% to total $678.8 billion in 2024, up from $563.6 billion in 2023, according to the latest forecast from Gartner, Inc.
“Cloud has become essentially indispensable,” said Sid Nag, Vice President Analyst at Gartner. “However, that doesn’t mean cloud innovation can stop or even slow. The tables are turning for cloud providers as cloud models no longer drive business outcomes, but rather, business outcomes shape cloud models.”
“For example, organizations deploying generative AI (GenAI) services will look to the public cloud, given the scale of the infrastructure required. However, to deploy GenAI effectively, these organizations will require cloud providers to address nontechnical issues related to cost, economics, sovereignty, privacy and sustainability.
Hyperscalers that support these needs will be able to capture a brand-new revenue opportunity as GenAI adoption grows.” All segments of the cloud market are expected see growth in 2024. Infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) is forecast to experience the highest end-user spending growth in 2024 at 26.6%, followed by platform-as-a-service (PaaS) at 21.5% (see Table 1).
Table 1. Worldwide Public Cloud Services End-User Spending Forecast (Millions of U.S. Dollars)
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Cloud Application Infrastructure Services (PaaS) | 119,579 | 145,320 | 176,493 |
| Cloud Application Services (SaaS) | 174,416 | 205,221 | 243,991 |
| Cloud Business Process Services (BPaaS) | 61,557 | 66,339 | 72,923 |
| Cloud Desktop-as-a-Service (DaaS) | 2,430 | 2,784 | 3,161 |
| Cloud System Infrastructure Services (IaaS) | 120,333 | 143,927 | 182,222 |
| Total Market | 478,315 | 563,592 | 678,790 |
BPaaS = business process as a service; IaaS = infrastructure as a service; PaaS = platform as a service; SaaS = software as a service
Note: Totals may not add up due to rounding.
Source: Gartner (November 2023)
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Another key trend driving cloud spending is the continued rise of industry cloud platforms. Industry cloud platforms address industry-relevant business outcomes by combining underlying software-as-a-service (SaaS), PaaS and IaaS services into a whole-product offering with composable capabilities. Gartner predicts that by 2027, more than 70% of enterprises will use industry cloud platforms to accelerate their business initiatives, up from less than 15% in 2023.
“GenAI adoption will also support the growth in industry cloud platforms,” said Nag. “GenAI models that are applicable across diverse industry verticals might require significant customization, affecting scalability and cost-effectiveness. Public cloud providers can position themselves as partners in the responsible and tailored adoption of GenAI by building on the same approaches applied to industry clouds, sovereign clouds and distributed clouds.”
Gartner previously forecast that Public Cloud services spending to hit $1.35 trillion in 2027. The U.S. will be the largest geographic public cloud market and will reach $697 billion in 2027. Western Europe is predicted to be in second place with $273 billion, followed by China at $117 billion in 2027. IDC forecasts that software-as-a-service (SaaS) applications to be the largest cloud computing category, garnering about 40% of all public cloud spending. Next largest is infrastructure as a service (IaaS) with a CAGR of 23.5%, followed by platform as a service (PaaS) with a five-year CAGR of 27.2%.
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References:
https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS51179523
IDC: Public Cloud services spending to hit $1.35 trillion in 2027
Gartner: Public Cloud End-User Spending to approach $500B in 2022; $600B in 2023
Gartner: Global public cloud spending to reach $332.3 billion in 2021; 23.1% YoY increase
Gartner clients can learn more in “Forecast: Public Cloud Services, Worldwide, 2021-2027, 3Q23 Update.”
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Gartner IT Infrastructure, Operations & Cloud Strategies Conference:
Gartner analysts will provide additional analysis on cloud strategies and infrastructure and operations trends at the Gartner IT Infrastructure, Operations & Cloud Strategies Conferences taking place November 20-21 in London, December 6-8 in Las Vegas and December 12-13 in Tokyo. Follow news and updates from these conferences on X using #GartnerIO.
About Gartner for High Tech:
Gartner for High Tech equips tech leaders and their teams with role-based best practices, industry insights and strategic views into emerging trends and market changes to achieve their mission-critical priorities and build the successful organizations of tomorrow. Additional information is available at www.gartner.com/en/industries/high-tech.
Co-Packaged Optics to play an important role in data center switches
The commercialization of co-packaged optics (CPO) has been long anticipated but is becoming increasingly desirable as data needs accelerate. Co-Packaged Optics are an advanced heterogeneous integration of optics and silicon on a single packaged substrate aimed at addressing next generation bandwidth and power challenges.
As the bandwidth of data center switches increases, a disproportionate amount of power is becoming dedicated to the switch – optics interface. Reducing the physical separation between these two components by co-packaging enables system power savings which is essential to continued bandwidth scaling.
CPO brings together a wide range of expertise in fiber optics, digital signal processing (DSP), switch ASICs, and state-of-the-art packaging and test to provide disruptive system value for the data center and cloud infrastructure.
The companies and institutions working on CPO have made great strides in developing suitable electronic components. But hundreds of meters of fiber will be packed into the switch box for the first time, and faceplate connections will have unprecedented densities. As a result, the design and development of optical system solutions will also be critical elements in the success of CPO. Optical components with performance tailored to the CPO application and effective solutions for managing the fiber in the switch box are vital in optimizing the complete optical system. Three aspects of CPO deployment, in particular, hinge on the properties of the fiber and the optical interfaces: optical power loss, the trade-off between minimizing bend loss and controlling for MPI and maintaining the polarization state if external lasers are used.
Image Courtesy of Broadcom
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Data centers face substantial challenges as they scale, particularly in reducing power dissipation and cost per bit. CPO will play a significant role in helping to meet those challenges. In today’s data center switches, external fiber optic connections that carry data terminate on pluggable transceivers on the housing faceplate. The optical data stream is coupled to the electrical signals at that interface.
With a CPO realization of a 51.2 Tbps switch, the substrate connects a central regulator ASIC to 16 optoelectronic (O/E) tiles on the substrate perimeter. These tiles are connected to optical fiber signal cables that run to the switch box faceplate and receive power from external lasers that they modulate to produce the outgoing optical signal stream.
They communicate between the transceiver and the switch application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) via copper traces on printed circuit boards. Under the CPO paradigm, as the optoelectronic conversion is pushed back from the faceplate to the switch substrate, long electrical traces are replaced with virtually loss-free optical fiber.
With CPO, the fiber path continues past a connector at the faceplate and into the switch box, ending at photonic integrated circuits (PICs) on optical tiles attached to the switch substrate. This shift presents the novel challenge of routing and connecting hundreds of optical fibers within a compact and crowded space, creating a need to minimize the footprint of the optics while still achieving performance and reliability targets.
CPO will soon be a reality that relies on a system of complex, interconnected components working well together. For optimum overall performance, these components must be designed with the specific requirements of CPO in mind, which for the optical subsystem include efficient and unobtrusive deployment within a crowded switch box, low power losses, absence of MPI impairments, and good reliability. Some CPO realizations also need optical polarization state control.
The familiar fiber and connectivity products, while having impressive attributes, are not optimum for the CPO application, and there is great scope for enhancing the performance of the optics by moving beyond default solutions to those specifically designed for the role.
References:
https://www.broadcom.com/info/optics/cpo
Coherent Optics: Synergistic for telecom, Data Center Interconnect (DCI) and inter-satellite Networks
Heavy Reading: Coherent Optics for 400G transport and 100G metro edge
ABI Research: Telco transformation measured via patents and 3GPP contributions; 5G accelerating in China
Every single telecom operator in the world is now attempting to transform from telco to techco, to break free from their antiquated, legacy, and stale connectivity business and evolve to sell technology platforms, a considerably more lucrative and promising business. Their success is not guaranteed, and many find it difficult – if not impossible – to unshackle themselves from their history and comfort zone.
ABI Research now says it’s measuring the progress of telco transformation by quantifying the number of patents that telcos hold and also measuring their involvement in standards-setting initiatives like 3GPP (whose specs are standardized by ETSI and ITU-R).
Telecom operators from China and Japan are currently at the forefront of technology transformation, which shows in their involvement in 3GPP and patent holdings,” says Dimitris Mavrakis, Senior Research Director at ABI Research. “China Mobile, NTT Docomo, and China Telecom have invested time, effort, and capital in both domains, which now translates to significant expertise, knowledge, and recognition in the industry. Although this is not the only metric for innovation, these leading network operators are well suited to transforming their business, technology, and strategic platforms to look to the future.”
The findings of the latest ABI Research report on telecom operator innovation indicate that they consistently contribute to 3GPP work, approximately 8% of the total contribution. Of these telecom operator contributions to 3GPP, 43% originate from China, 29% from Japan, 14% from Europe, and 12% from the United States. Leading operators are China Mobile, NTT Docomo, China Telecom, Orange, Vodafone, and Deutsche Telekom. Their Standards Essential Patent (SEP) holdings are similar, with China Mobile and NTT Docomo leading the market.
Standards contributions and patent holdings are good measures of willingness to innovate and get involved in leading the market. “Telecom operators must get involved and not let other companies lead the direction of the market – especially when geopolitics and semiconductor supply constraints are affecting the market. With 5G Advanced and upcoming 6G, they have the technology to innovate, but they must now take more risks and lead the market,” Mavrakis concludes.
Fierce Wireless asked why T-Mobile didn’t rank, given the good progress that it’s made with its 5G SA network and network slicing trials. Mavrakis said, “T-Mobile US is part of Deutsche Telekom, which is represented in the chart above. They are indeed making progress toward network slicing, but our report measures 3GPP standards activities and patents, which is a different area of innovation.”
These findings are from ABI Research’s Telco versus Techco: Operators’ Role in Shaping Cellular Innovation and 3GPP Standards application analysis report. This report is part of the company’s Cellular Standards & IPR research service, which includes research, data, and ABI Insights. Based on extensive primary interviews, Application Analysis reports present in-depth analysis on key market trends and factors for a specific application, which could focus on an individual market or geography.
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Separately, ABI Research says 5G end-user services deployment continue to accelerate in China, which is very much leaving other markets in its wake. Not only does it have 3.2 million 5G base stations up and running, but also a wide range of 5G-to-Business (5GtoB) applications.
According to China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), the country has built or upgraded more than 3.2 million 5G base stations—accounting for 30% of the overall mobile base stations nationwide—which has already exceeded the initial target of deploying 2.9 million 5G base stations by the end of 2023. A fourth mobile operator, China Broadnet, has also been issued a 5G mobile cellular license to help stimulate consumer and enterprise competition.
5G subscriber adoption has been robust. At the end of 1Q 2023, the number of 5G subscriptions in the country had increased to around 1.3 billion, which is an increase of more than 53% from approximately 850 million 5G subscribers as of March 2022. The China Telecom Research Institute reported that the average download speed for 5G is a very robust 340 Megabits per Second (Mbps).
China’s mobile operators have seen an overall increase in service revenue. China Mobile reported an 8.1% Year-over-Year (YoY) increase in telecommunication service revenue, with mobile Average Revenue per User (ARPU) up 0.4% to CNY49 (US$6.9). China Telecom also reported a 3.7% YoY increase in mobile communications service revenue with mobile ARPU up 0.4% to CNY45.2 (US$6.3), whereas China Unicom saw a 3-year consecutive growth in mobile ARPU to CNY44.3 (US$6.2).
Growth in revenue has been primed by an expansion in revenue models the telcos can offer. Revenue for China Mobile’s 5G private networks also saw an increase of 107.4% YoY growth, reaching RMB2.55 billion (US$365.5 million) by December 2022. Meanwhile, China Unicom experienced a spike in 5G industry virtual private network customers from 491 to 5,816 between June 2022 and June 2023. Across the board, the three operators have collectively reached a cumulative total of more than 49,000 5G commercial enterprise projects, with China’s MIIT reporting that the operators have built more than 6,000 5G private networks, to date.
China’s mobile cellular ecosystem is not resting on its laurels. Urged on by China’s government, the sector has been embracing 5G-Advanced, as underpinned by The 3rd Generation Partnership Project’s (3GPP) Release 18. Included in Release 18 are greater support for Artificial Intelligence (AI) integration, 10 Gigabits per Second (Gbps) for peak downlink and 1 Gbps for peak uplink experience, supporting a wider range of Internet of Things (IoT) scenarios, and integrated sensing & communication. Information gathered through sensors can enable communication to be more deterministic, which improves the accuracy of channel conditions assessment. Another example is dynamic beam alignment for vehicle communications using Millimeter Wave (mmWave). China’s mobile operators and vendors are keen to adopt 5G-Advanced due to its ability to support a 10X densification of IoT devices compared to 5G. There is also support for passive 5G IoT devices that can be queried by campus and/or indoor small cells to provide telemetry-related data. Instead of a field or warehouse worker, or even an Autonomous Guided Vehicle (AGV) with a portable Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) reader, the campus cellular network can track asset tags in real time and remotely—eliminating the need to check up and down warehouse aisles individually.
5G-Advanced (not yet standardized) deployments are materializing in China. China Mobile Hangzhou launched its Dual 10 Gigabit City project in early 2023. This project focuses on using 5G-Advanced technologies to support applications such as glasses-free Three-Dimensional (3D) experiences on different devices during the Asian Games. Such early experimental projects are not limited to only one city in China. To the northeast of Hangzhou, China Mobile Shanghai has also started its own project to build the first 5G-Advanced intelligent 10 Gigabit Everywhere City (10 GbE City). The network is built using the 2.6 Gigahertz (GHz) network initially for the main urban areas before expanding the coverage to the entirety of Shanghai.
5G deployment, integration, and usage is accelerating. The China Academy of Information and Communications Technology anticipates that US$232 billion will have been invested in 5G by 2025. An additional US$37.9 billion (RMB3.5 trillion) of investment will also take place in the upstream and downstream segments of the industrial chain. During a 2023 Science and Technology Week and Strategic Emerging Industries Co-creation and Development Conference, MIIT stated that 5G connectivity has been integrated into “60 out of 97 national economic categories, covering over 12,000 application themes.” ABI Research has not verified all the use cases reported by MIIT, but ABI Research’s ongoing research into the 5G-to-Business (5GtoB) market in Asia has validated that there are a wide range of 5GtoB trials, pilots, and commercial rollouts taking place in China.
A further ABI Insight that you may find interesting is “China Telecom Is the First Operator Worldwide to Launch a “Device-to-Device” Service on a Smartphone to Improve Coverage.”
About ABI Research:
ABI Research is a global technology intelligence firm delivering actionable research and strategic guidance to technology leaders, innovators, and decision makers around the world. Our research focuses on the transformative technologies that are dramatically reshaping industries, economies, and workforces today.
References:
https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/abi-research-praises-china-mobile-ntt-docomo-5g-innovation
6th Digital China Summit: China to expand its 5G network; 6G R&D via the IMT-2030 (6G) Promotion Group
ABI Research: 5G Network Slicing Market Slows; T-Mobile says “it’s time to unleash Network Slicing”
ABI Research: Expansion of 5G SA Core Networks key to 5G subscription growth
ABI Research: Major contributors to 3GPP; How 3GPP specs become standards
ABI Research: 5G-Advanced (not yet defined by ITU-R) will include AI/ML and network energy savings
Proposed solutions to high energy consumption of Generative AI LLMs: optimized hardware, new algorithms, green data centers
Introduction:
Many generative AI tools rely on a type of natural-language processing called large language models (LLMs) to first learn and then make inferences about languages and linguistic structures (like code or legal-case prediction) used throughout the world. Some companies that use LLMs include: Anthropic (now collaborating with Amazon), Microsoft, OpenAI, Google, Amazon/AWS, Meta (FB), SAP, IQVIA. Here are some examples of LLMs: Google’s BERT, Amazon’s Bedrock, Falcon 40B, Meta’s Galactica, Open AI’s GPT-3 and GPT-4, Google’s LaMDA Hugging Face’s BLOOM Nvidia’s NeMO LLM.
The training process of the Large Language Models (LLMs) used in generative artificial intelligence (AI) is a cause for concern. LLMs can consume many terabytes of data and use over 1,000 megawatt-hours of electricity.
Alex de Vries is a Ph.D. candidate at VU Amsterdam and founder of the digital-sustainability blog Digiconomist published a report in Joule which predicts that current AI technology could be on track to annually consume as much electricity as the entire country of Ireland (29.3 terawatt-hours per year).
“As an already massive cloud market keeps on growing, the year-on-year growth rate almost inevitably declines,” John Dinsdale, chief analyst and managing director at Synergy, told CRN via email. “But we are now starting to see a stabilization of growth rates, as cloud provider investments in generative AI technology help to further boost enterprise spending on cloud services.”
Hardware vs Algorithmic Solutions to Reduce Energy Consumption:
Roberto Verdecchia is an assistant professor at the University of Florence and the first author of a paper published on developing green AI solutions. He says that de Vries’s predictions may even be conservative when it comes to the true cost of AI, especially when considering the non-standardized regulation surrounding this technology. AI’s energy problem has historically been approached through optimizing hardware, says Verdecchia. However, continuing to make microelectronics smaller and more efficient is becoming “physically impossible,” he added.
In his paper, published in the journal WIREs Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, Verdecchia and colleagues highlight several algorithmic approaches that experts are taking instead. These include improving data-collection and processing techniques, choosing more-efficient libraries, and improving the efficiency of training algorithms. “The solutions report impressive energy savings, often at a negligible or even null deterioration of the AI algorithms’ precision,” Verdecchia says.
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Another Solution – Data Centers Powered by Alternative Energy Sources:
The immense amount of energy needed to power these LLMs, like the one behind ChatGPT, is creating a new market for data centers that run on alternative energy sources like geothermal, nuclear and flared gas, a byproduct of oil production. Supply of electricity, which currently powers the vast majority of data centers, is already strained from existing demands on the country’s electric grids. AI could consume up to 3.5% of the world’s electricity by 2030, according to an estimate from IT research and consulting firm Gartner.
Amazon, Microsoft, and Google were among the first to explore wind and solar-powered data centers for their cloud businesses, and are now among the companies exploring new ways to power the next wave of AI-related computing. But experts warn that given their high risk, cost, and difficulty scaling, many nontraditional sources aren’t capable of solving near-term power shortages.
Exafunction, maker of the Codeium generative AI-based coding assistant, sought out energy startup Crusoe Energy Systems for training its large-language models because it offered better prices and availability of graphics processing units, the advanced AI chips primarily produced by Nvidia, said the startup’s chief executive, Varun Mohan.
AI startups are typically looking for five to 25 megawatts of data center power, or as much as they can get in the near term, according to Pat Lynch, executive managing director for commercial real-estate services firm CBRE’s data center business. Crusoe will have about 200 megawatts by year’s end, Lochmiller said. Training one AI model like OpenAI’s GPT-3 can use up to 10 gigawatt-hours, roughly equivalent to the amount of electricity 1,000 U.S. homes use in a year, University of Washington research estimates.
Major cloud providers capable of providing multiple gigawatts of power are also continuing to invest in renewable and alternative energy sources to power their data centers, and use less water to cool them down. By some estimates, data centers account for 1% to 3% of global electricity use.
An Amazon Web Services spokesperson said the scale of its massive data centers means it can make better use of resources and be more efficient than smaller, privately operated data centers. Amazon says it has been the world’s largest corporate buyer of renewable energy for the past three years.
Jen Bennett, a Google Cloud leader in technology strategy for sustainability, said the cloud giant is exploring “advanced nuclear” energy and has partnered with Fervo Energy, a startup beginning to offer geothermal power for Google’s Nevada data center. Geothermal, which taps heat under the earth’s surface, is available around the clock and not dependent on weather, but comes with high risk and cost.
“Similar to what we did in the early days of wind and solar, where we did these large power purchase agreements to guarantee the tenure and to drive costs down, we think we can do the same with some of the newer energy sources,” Bennett said.
References:
https://aws.amazon.com/what-is/large-language-model/
https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-energy-consumption
https://www.crn.com/news/cloud/microsoft-aws-google-cloud-market-share-q3-2023-results/6
Amdocs and NVIDIA to Accelerate Adoption of Generative AI for $1.7 Trillion Telecom Industry
SK Telecom and Deutsche Telekom to Jointly Develop Telco-specific Large Language Models (LLMs)
AI Frenzy Backgrounder; Review of AI Products and Services from Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta; Conclusions
Amdocs and NVIDIA to Accelerate Adoption of Generative AI for $1.7 Trillion Telecom Industry
Amdocs and NVIDIA today announced they are collaborating to optimize large language models (LLMs) to speed adoption of generative AI applications and services across the $1.7 trillion telecommunications and media industries.(1)
Amdocs and NVIDIA will customize enterprise-grade LLMs running on NVIDIA accelerated computing as part of the Amdocs amAIz framework. The collaboration will empower communications service providers to efficiently deploy generative AI use cases across their businesses, from customer experiences to network provisioning.
Amdocs will use NVIDIA DGX Cloud AI supercomputing and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software to support flexible adoption strategies and help ensure service providers can simply and safely use generative AI applications.
Aligned with the Amdocs strategy of advancing generative AI use cases across the industry, the collaboration with NVIDIA builds on the previously announced Amdocs-Microsoft partnership. Service providers and media companies can adopt these applications in secure and trusted environments, including on premises and in the cloud.
With these new capabilities — including the NVIDIA NeMo framework for custom LLM development and guardrail features — service providers can benefit from enhanced performance, optimized resource utilization and flexible scalability to support emerging and future needs.
“NVIDIA and Amdocs are partnering to bring a unique platform and unmatched value proposition to customers,” said Shuky Sheffer, Amdocs Management Limited president and CEO. “By combining NVIDIA’s cutting-edge AI infrastructure, software and ecosystem and Amdocs’ industry-first amAlz AI framework, we believe that we have an unmatched offering that is both future-ready and value-additive for our customers.”
“Across a broad range of industries, enterprises are looking for the fastest, safest path to apply generative AI to boost productivity,” said Jensen Huang, founder and CEO of NVIDIA. “Our collaboration with Amdocs will help telco service providers automate personalized assistants, service ticket routing and other use cases for their billions of customers, and help the telcos analyze and optimize their operations.”
Amdocs counts more than 350 of the world’s leading telecom and media companies as customers, including 27 of the world’s top 30 service providers.(2) With more than 1.7 billion daily digital journeys, Amdocs platforms impact more than 3 billion people around the world.
NVIDIA and Amdocs are exploring a number of generative AI use cases to simplify and improve operations by providing secure, cost-effective and high-performance generative AI capabilities.
Initial use cases span customer care, including accelerating customer inquiry resolution by drawing information from across company data. On the network operations side, the companies are exploring how to proactively generate solutions that aid configuration, coverage or performance issues as they arise.
(1) Source: IDC, OMDIA, Factset analyses of Telecom 2022-2023 revenue.
(2) Source: OMDIA 2022 revenue estimates, excludes China.
Editor’s Note:
- Language models: These models, like OpenAI’s GPT-3, generate human-like text. One of the most popular examples of language-based generative models are called large language models (LLMs).
- Large language models are being leveraged for a wide variety of tasks, including essay generation, code development, translation, and even understanding genetic sequences.
- Generative adversarial networks (GANs): These models use two neural networks, a generator, and a discriminator.
- Unimodal models: These models only accept one data input format.
- Multimodal models: These models accept multiple types of inputs and prompts. For example, GPT-4 can accept both text and images as inputs.
- Variational autoencoders (VAEs): These deep learning architectures are frequently used to build generative AI models.
- Foundation models: These models generate output from one or more inputs (prompts) in the form of human language instructions.
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/glossary/data-science/generative-ai/
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2023/01/26/what-are-large-language-models-used-for/
Cloud Service Providers struggle with Generative AI; Users face vendor lock-in; “The hype is here, the revenue is not”
Global Telco AI Alliance to progress generative AI for telcos
Bain & Co, McKinsey & Co, AWS suggest how telcos can use and adapt Generative AI
Generative AI Unicorns Rule the Startup Roost; OpenAI in the Spotlight
Generative AI in telecom; ChatGPT as a manager? ChatGPT vs Google Search
Generative AI could put telecom jobs in jeopardy; compelling AI in telecom use cases
Intentional or Accident: Russian fiber optic cable cut (1 of 3) by Chinese container ship under Baltic Sea
A Russian fiber optic cable under the Baltic Sea was completely severed last month when a Chinese container ship passed over it, state company Rostelecom said on Tuesday.
Finnish investigators have already said they suspect the vessel, the NewNew Polar Bear, of causing serious damage to the nearby Balticconnector gas pipeline by dragging its anchor over the sea bed during the same voyage.
Two other Baltic telecoms cables were damaged on the same night of October 7th, along the route that the ship was travelling, according to shipping data reviewed by Reuters.
The incidents have highlighted the vulnerability of marine cables and pipelines at a time when security fears are running high because of the Ukraine war. Investigators have yet to establish who was responsible for blowing up Russia’s Nord Stream gas pipelines under the Baltic last year.
A Rostelecom spokesperson, responding to emailed questions from Reuters, said the double armored fiber optic cable, with a thickness of 40.4 mm (1.6 inches), had been cut completely.
Asked if the company believed the Chinese ship had caused the damage, the spokesperson said: “At the time of the damage to the fiber optic cable, the Chinese ship New Polar Bear was at a point with coordinates coinciding with the route of the communication line.”
China has said it is willing to provide necessary information on the incident in accordance with international law. NewNew Shipping, the owner and operator of the NewNew Polar Bear, has previously declined to comment when contacted by Reuters.
In a statement earlier on Tuesday, Rostelecom publicly acknowledged the damage to its cable for the first time, describing it as an accident and without mentioning the cause. It said the site of the damage was only 28 km (17 miles) from where the Balticconnector gas pipeline was ruptured soon afterwards.
In total, three Baltic telecoms cables and one pipeline were damaged in the space of less than nine hours.
Data from shipping intelligence firm MarineTraffic, reviewed by Reuters, showed that the New Polar Bear passed over a Swedish-Estonian telecoms cable at 1513 GMT, then over the Russian cable at around 2020 GMT, the Balticconnector at 2220 GMT and a Finland-Estonia telecoms line at 2349 GMT.
Rostelecom said the damage to its cable was recorded at 2030 GMT.
As far back as Oct. 13, President Vladimir Putin dismissed as “complete rubbish” suggestions that Russia might have been to blame for the Balticconnector damage and floated the possibility that a ship’s anchor could have caused it.
On Tuesday, the Kremlin referred further questions to the Communications Ministry, which did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Finnish police announced on Oct. 24 that they had found a ship’s anchor near the broken gas pipeline. They have not concluded whether the damage was caused accidentally or deliberately. Operator Gasgrid has said the pipeline could be out of commission until April or longer.
Rostelecom said a specialised vessel had started repairs on the fiber optic cable on Sunday and that the work was expected to take 10 days, depending on weather conditions.
The cable runs from St Petersburg to Russia’s Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad. The company said users had not been affected because data was transmitted via terrestrial routes and backup satellite channels.
References:
China seeks to control Asian subsea cable systems; SJC2 delayed, Apricot and Echo avoid South China Sea
Sabotage or Accident: Was Russia or a fishing trawler responsible for Shetland Island cable cut?
Geopolitical tensions arise in Asia over subsea fiber optic cable projects; U.S. intervened to flip SeaMeWe-6 contractor
Verizon once again delays 5G Standalone (SA) commercial service
Like AT&T, Verizon has promised 5G standalone (SA) core network for a very long time. The mostly wireless U.S. carrier initially said it would launch standalone 5G in 2020. Some in the industry thought it did so in 2022. But the company said the technology ‘is in testing now’ and is still not available commercially.
“We have it in trials only at this point. We don’t have it commercially available for our customers,” Verizon’s chief networking executive, Joe Russo, said on a podcast last month hosted by Recon Analytics. “So more to come in the next several months as Verizon will be entering the standalone core game.”
“It is absolutely a capability that we think will be another enabler to new use cases. But … the reliability and performance of Verizon’s network is what we stand for, and I don’t put technology out into the network that is a step back. It has to be a step forward. And all of the data that I see – both internal testing and with external testing that happens out there in the market – tells me that SA [standalone] needs a little bit more time.”
“We’re doing significant developing and testing to make sure that both the data session and the voice sessions in a standalone world are as good or better than what you would expect in our 4G network today. So we see that in the next several months we’re going to get there, but it was not my goal to be first in deploying standalone. It’s my goal to be best in deploying standalone.”
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Verizon spokesperson Kevin King clarified that “we have commercial traffic running on our 5G non standalone core. That is what we announced earlier in the year. Joe was referring to our 5G standalone core which is in testing now.”
That cop-out was contradicted by a statement made during a webinar for analysts on September 29th, which was obtained by Light Reading. “People talk about the standalone core. Just terminology-wise, that’s the 5G core essentially. If you guys have read the stuff we’ve said publicly, certainly we serve some customers on portions of our 5G core,” said Mike Haberman, Verizon’s SVP of strategy and transformation, And then we have some internal stuff going on with other functionality on the core. We’re in the process of rolling out (5G SA) in a very smart fashion.”
“Here’s the deal: When you go to the standalone core, you can’t aggregate your LTE carriers. With the non standalone core I’m aggregating together both 5G and 4G. So when you go standalone you start to bifurcate the spectrum. So that’s the impact to the RAN [radio access network]. So you better be sure that your mobile [customer] distribution, where they are geography, makes sense. Or what will happen is those customers will experience a lower service level. No good. We want to be careful of that. So that’s why, when you do the standalone core, you have to pay very close attention to your radio access network because they are directly attached.”
On April 27th Verizon issued a press release describing the benefits of 5G standalone (SA) technology and how it’s “what sets Verizon apart.” However, the release doesn’t specifically say that Verizon launched the technology. That despite Verizon last year announced it had begun moving traffic onto its new 5G core, which supports both the non standalone (NSA) and standalone (SA) versions of the technology.
Last year, Mobile World Live reported that Verizon was migrating “commercial traffic onto SA 5G core.” The article cited an unnamed Verizon representative. Mobile World Live also reported that Ericsson, Casa Systems, Oracle and Nokia supply Verizon’s 5G core.
Dell’Oro Group, in January 2023, listed Verizon among the few North American wireless providers that had commercially launched the technology.
“This is a moving target,” Recon Analytics analyst Roger Entner told Light Reading. But Entner said Verizon’s position on the standalone version of 5G makes sense. “The benefits you can get today from standalone are limited.”
–>This author totally disagrees with Mr. Entner, because TRUE 5G=5G SA. IN OTHER WORDS, ALL OF THE 3GPP DEFINED 5G FEATURES REQUIRE 5G SA! That includes 5G security and network slicing.
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Light Reading’s Mike Dano wrote:
Verizon now appears to be roughly three years behind its initial standalone 5G rollout plans. In the summer of 2020, Verizon said it would begin moving traffic onto its standalone 5G core “in the second half of 2020 with full commercialization in 2021.”
Then, in early 2022, Verizon CTO Kyle Malady suggested that the operator would begin moving some of its fixed wireless access (FWA) traffic onto its standalone 5G core by June of that year. He also said at the time that Verizon would start putting smartphone traffic onto that core in 2023.
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T-Mobile US and Dish Wireless are the only two 5G carriers that have launched commercial 5G SA. AT&T has made a lot of noise about it’s 5G SA plans but has yet to launch.
AT&T’s chief networking executive, Chris Sambar, wrote in a September 29th blog post that AT&T was moving some customers to standalone 5G. “Many of the newest mobile devices are ready for 5G standalone, and we continue to move thousands of customers every day. We also recently launched AT&T Internet Air home fixed wireless service, and from the start, this product rides on standalone 5G.”
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/verizon-surprises-with-ongoing-delays-in-5g-standalone-rollout
https://www.verizon.com/about/news/5g-standalone-why-it-matters
https://about.att.com/blogs/2023/network-ready.html
AT&T touts 5G advances; will deploy Standalone 5G when “the ecosystem is ready”- when will that be?
Analysys Mason: 40 operational 5G SA networks worldwide; Sub-Sahara Africa dominates new launches
GSA 5G SA Core Network Update Report
5G subscription prices rise in U.S. without killer applications or 5G features (which require a 5G SA core network)
SpaceX has majority of all satellites in orbit; Starlink achieves cash-flow breakeven
SpaceX accounts for roughly one-half of all orbital space launches around the world, and it’s growing its launch frequency. It also has a majority of all the satellites in orbit around the planet. This Thursday, majority owner & CEO Elon Musk tweeted, “Excited to announce that SpaceX Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow! Starlink (a SpaceX subsidiary) is also now a majority of all active satellites and will have launched a majority of all satellites cumulatively from Earth by next year.”
There are some 5,000 Starlink satellites in orbit. Starlink satellites are small, lower-cost satellites built by SpaceX that deliver high-speed, space-based internet service to customers on Earth. Starlink can cost about $120 a month and there is some hardware to buy as well.
Starlink ended 2022 with roughly 1 million subscribers. The subscriber count now isn’t known, but it could be approaching 2 million users based on prior growth rates. SpaceX didn’t return a request for comment.
In 2021, Musk said SpaceX would spin off and take Starlink public once its cash flow was reasonably predictable.
A SpaceX rocket carriers Starlink satellites into orbit. PHOTO CREDIT: SPACEX
Starlink has been in the spotlight since last year as it helps provide Ukraine with satellite communications key to its war efforts against Russia.
Last month, Musk said Starlink will support communication links in Gaza with “internationally recognized aid organizations” after a telephone and internet blackout isolated people in the Gaza Strip from the world and from each other.
Musk has sought to establish the Starlink business unit as a crucial source of revenue to fund SpaceX’s more capital-intensive projects such as its next-generation Starship, a giant reusable rocket the company intends to fly to the moon for NASA within the next decade.
Starlink posted a more than six-fold surge in revenue last year to $1.4 billion, but fell short of targets set by Musk, the Wall Street Journal reported in September, citing documents.
SpaceX is valued at about $150 billion and is one of the most valuable private companies in the world.
References:
https://www.barrons.com/articles/elon-musk-spacex-starlink-86fe99ec?
Verizon transports 1.2 terabytes per second of data across a single wavelength
Verizon has upgraded its optical to electrical conversion cards to send data at speeds of 1.2 Tbps on a single wavelength through the carrier’s live production network. The trials demonstrated increased reliability and overall capacity as well, Verizon said.
The trials, which were conducted in metro Long Island, N.Y., were in partnership with Cisco and included technology from Acacia, as well. They utilized Cisco’s NCS 1014 transceiver shelf and Acacia’s Coherent Interconnect Module (CIM 8). Verizon said the module features silicon semiconductor chips with 5nm complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) digital processing and 140 Gbaud silicon photonics using 3D packaging technology. In short, digital processing capabilities and transistor density both are increased.
Verizon said that it transmitted a 1.0 Tbps single wavelength through the Cisco NCS 20000 line system for more than 205 km. It traversed 14 fiber central offices (COs). The carrier said this is significant because progressive filtering and signal-to-noise degradation impact wavelengths as they pass through each CO. The trials also featured 800 Gbps transmission for 305 km through 20 COs — and a 1.2 Tbps wavelength that traversed three offices.
“We have bet big on fiber. Not only does it provide an award-winning broadband experience for consumers and enterprises, it also serves as the backbone of our wireless network. As we continue to see customers using more data in more varied ways, it is critical we continue to stay ahead of our customers’ demands by using the resources we have most efficiently,” said Adam Koeppe, SVP of Technology Planning at Verizon.
Image courtesy of Verizon
In addition to increasing data rates, the new optics technology from Cisco reduces the need for regeneration of the light signal (conversion to electrical and back to optical signals) along the path by compensating for the degradation of the light signal traveling through the fiber cable. This adds reliability and leads to a reduced cost per bit operating expense for more efficient network management.
Bill Gartner, senior vice president and general manager of Cisco Optical Systems and Optics, added, “This trial demonstrates our commitment to continuous innovation aimed at increasing wavelength capacity and reducing costs. The Verizon infrastructure built with the Cisco NCS 2000 open line system supports multiple generations of optics, thus protecting investments as technology evolves.”
In March, Windstream Wholesale said that it sent a 1 Tbps wave across its Converged Optical Network (ICON) between Dallas and Tulsa, a distance of 541 km.
References:
https://www.verizon.com/about/news/verizon-fiber-technology-advancement-results
Verizon Touts 1.2 Tbps Wavelengths Over Production Network – Telecompetitor
https://www.verizon.com/about/news/verizon-transports-800-gbps