Author: Alan Weissberger
Ciena CEO sees huge increase in AI generated network traffic growth while others expect a slowdown
Today, Ciena reported better than expected revenue of $1.12 billion in its 4th quarter, which was above analyst expectations of around $1.103 billion. Orders were once again ahead of revenue, even though the company had expected orders to be below revenue just a few months ago. A closer look at key metrics reveals mixed results, with some segments like Software and Services showing strong growth (+20.6% year-over-year) and others like Routing and Switching experiencing significant declines (-38.4% year-over-year).
Increased demand for the company’s Reconfigurable Line Systems (RLS), primarily from large cloud providers. And he said the company was also doing well selling its WaveLogic coherent optical pluggables, which optimize performance in data centers as they support traffic from AI and machine learning.
Ciena’s Managed Optical Fiber Networks (MOFN) technology is designed for global service providers that are building dedicated private optical networks for cloud providers. MOFN came about a few years ago when cloud providers wanted to enter countries where they weren’t allowed to build their own fiber networks. “They had to go with the incumbent carrier, but they wanted to have control of their network within country. It was sort of a niche-type play. But we’ve seen more recently, over the last 6-9 months, that model being more widely adopted,” Smith said. MOFN is becoming more widely utilized, and the good news for Ciena is that cloud providers often request that Ciena equipment be used so that it matches with the rest of their network, according to Smith.
Image Credit: Midjourney for Fierce Network
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The company also said it now expects average annual revenue growth of approximately 8% to 11% over the next three years. “Our business is linked heavily into the growth of bandwidth around the world,” CEO Gary Smith said after Ciena’s earnings call. “Traffic growth has been between 20% and 40% per year very consistently for the last two decades,” Smith told Light Reading.
Ciena believes huge investments in data centers with AI compute servers will ultimately result in more traffic traveling over U.S. and international broadband networks. “It has to come out of the data center and onto the network,” Smith said of AI data. “Now, quite where it ends up being, who can know. As an exact percentage, a lot of people are working through that, including the cloud guys,” he said about the data traffic growth rate over the next few years. “But one would expect [AI data] to layer on top of that 30% growth, is the point I’m making,” he added.
AI comes at a fortuitous time for Ciena. “You’re having to connect these GPU clusters over greater distances. We’re beginning to see general, broader traffic growth in things like inference and training. And that’s going to obviously drive our business, which is why we’re forecasting greater than normal growth,” Smith said.
Smith’s positive comments on AI traffic are noteworthy in light of some data points showing a slowdown in the rate of growth in data traffic on global networks. For example:
- OpenVault recently reported that monthly average broadband data consumption in the third quarter inched up 7.2%, the lowest rate of growth seen since the company began reporting these trends in 2012.
- In Ericsson’s newest report, Fredrik Jejdling, EVP and head of business area networks, said: “We see continued mobile network traffic growth but at a slower rate.”
- Some of the nation’s biggest Content Data Network (CDN) providers – including Akamai, Fastly and Edgio – are struggling to come to terms with a historic slowdown in Internet traffic growth. Such companies operate the content delivery networks that convey video and other digital content online.
- “In terms of traffic growth, it is growing very slowly – at rates that we haven’t seen in the 25-plus years we’ve been in this business. So it’s growing very, very slow,” Akamai CFO Ed McGowan said recently. “It’s just been a weak traffic environment.”
“The cloud providers themselves are building bigger infrastructure and networks, and laying track for even greater growth in the future as more and more of that AI traffic comes out of the data center,” Smithsaid. “So that’s why we’re predicting greater growth than normal over the next three years. It’s early days for that traffic coming out of the data center, but I think we’re seeing clear evidence around it. So you’re looking at an enormous step function in traffic flows over the next few years,” he concluded.
References:
https://www.lightreading.com/data-centers/ciena-ceo-prepare-for-the-ai-traffic-wave
https://www.fierce-network.com/broadband/cienas-ceo-says-companys-growth-linked-ai
Summit Broadband deploys 400G using Ciena’s WaveLogic 5 Extreme
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Initiatives and Analysis: Nokia focuses on data centers as its top growth market
RWA, CWA and EchoStar file FCC petitions against T-Mobile’s acquisition of UScellular
The Rural Wireless Association (RWA), Communications Workers of America (CWA), and EchoStar (owns Dish Network) all filed FCC petitions requesting the agency reject T-Mobile’s proposed acquisition of “substantially all” of UScellular’s wireless operations, including some spectrum.
The proposed transaction would remove UScellular from the U.S. telecom market, thereby eliminating one of the last few remaining regional wireless network operators and strengthening T-Mobile’s position across the 21 states where UScellular maintains operations.
Public interest and consumer groups (include Public Knowledge, New America’s Open Technology Institute and Community Broadband Networks Initiative) also opposed approval. They argued that the proposed merger between T-Mobile and UScellular would “result in the loss of the fifth largest marketplace competitor with a network covering approximately 10 percent of the country’s population, reallocate spectrum resources predominantly to the three top wireless carriers only to make it nearly impossible for a fourth competitor to emerge in the market, and waste valuable funding secured for building out 5G networks.”
The deal is relatively small as telecom mergers go — valued at about $4.4 billion, including $2 billion in assumed debt — but has ignited substantial opposition. UScellular is the nation’s fifth-largest wireless carrier.
“T-Mobile is asking for the commission’s blessing to further entrench its dominance over the wireless voice and broadband markets, making it harder for others (like EchoStar) to compete. The commission should deny this transaction, which threatens to substantially harm competition while offering only illusory public interest benefits,” EchoStar wrote in a new filing to the FCC.
“The merger would substantially lessen competition in local markets where UScellular operates, hurting workers, consumers and other rural carriers. The commission should reject the proposed transaction as currently structured and require specific enforceable measures … to ensure that the merger remains in the public interest,” wrote the Communications Workers of America (CWA), a union that counts thousands of members inside AT&T and Verizon but has struggled to unionize workers in T-Mobile. The Rural Wireless Association also voiced its opposition.
This past May, T-Mobile said it would purchase around 30% of UScellular’s spectrum holdings, all of its 4.5 million customers and its retail stores in a deal worth $4.4 billion. T-Mobile has also said it will make job offers to “a significant number” of UScellular’s employees as part of the transaction. Following T-Mobile’s announcement, both AT&T and Verizon inked deals to acquire roughly $1 billion each worth of UScellular’s spectrum. T-Mobile officials still expect to close the UScellular transaction next year.
“I don’t know how many mergers you’ve heard of in the past that are like, yeah, I can promise you better networks and lower prices right from the get-go, and the company, of course, will benefit from the synergies, and it’s highly accretive. So this is going to be a win all the way around, and I’m confident the government will see it that way as well,” T-Mobile CEO Mike Sievert said this week at an investor event.
However, the U.S. Department of Justice (DoJ) advised a deeper review of T-Mobile’s UScellular proposed acquisition due to T-Mobile’s foreign owner Deutsche Telekom, which indirectly holds 50.42% of T-Mobile’s stock and also holds a proxy agreement that authorizes it to vote additional shares.
Many pundits expect T-Mobile to ultimately close on its purchase of UScellular thanks to the incoming Trump administration, which is expected to be more friendly to acquisitions than the Biden administration has been. As a precedent, Donald Trump’s first administration immediately approved T-Mobile’s $26 billion purchase of Sprint in 2020.
References:
https://www.fcc.gov/ecfs/document/1209299836114/1
https://www.fcc.gov/ecfs/document/120973502037/1
T-Mobile to acquire UScellular’s wireless operations in $4.4 billion deal
Google’s new quantum computer chip Willow infinitely outpaces the world’s fastest supercomputers
Overview:
In a blog post on Monday, Google unveiled a new quantum computer chip called Willow, which demonstrates error correction and performance that paves the way to a useful, large-scale quantum computer. Willow has state-of-the-art performance across a number of metrics, enabling two major achievements.
- The first is that Willow can reduce errors exponentially as we scale up using more qubits. This cracks a key challenge in quantum error correction that the field has pursued for almost 30 years.
- Second, Willow performed a standard benchmark computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 10 septillion (that is, 1025) years — a number that vastly exceeds the age of the Universe.
Google’s quantum computer chip, Willow. Photo Credit…Google Quantum AI
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Quantum computing — the result of decades of research into a type of physics called quantum mechanics — is still an experimental technology. But Google’s achievement shows that scientists are steadily improving techniques that could allow quantum computing to live up to the enormous expectations that have surrounded this big idea for decades.
“When quantum computing was originally envisioned, many people — including many leaders in the field — felt that it would never be a practical thing,” said Mikhail Lukin, a professor of physics at Harvard and a co-founder of the quantum computing start-up QuEra. “What has happened over the last year shows that it is no longer science fiction.”
As a measure of Willow’s performance, Google used the random circuit sampling (RCS) benchmark. Pioneered by its team and now widely used as a standard in the field, RCS is the classically hardest benchmark that can be done on a quantum computer today. You can think of this as an entry point for quantum computing — it checks whether a quantum computer is doing something that couldn’t be done on a classical computer.
Random circuit sampling (RCS), while extremely challenging for classical computers, has yet to demonstrate practical commercial applications. Image Credit: Google AI.
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Willow’s performance on this benchmark is astonishing: It performed a computation in under five minutes that would take one of today’s fastest supercomputers 1025 or 10 septillion years. If you want to write it out, it’s 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 years. This mind-boggling number exceeds known timescales in physics and vastly exceeds the age of the universe. It lends credence to the notion that quantum computation occurs in many parallel universes, in line with the idea that we live in a multiverse, a prediction first made by David Deutsch.
Google’s assessment of how Willow outpaces one of the world’s most powerful classical supercomputers, Frontier, was based on conservative assumptions. For example, we assumed full access to secondary storage, i.e., hard drives, without any bandwidth overhead — a generous and unrealistic allowance for Frontier. Of course, as happened after we announced the first beyond-classical computation in 2019, we expect classical computers to keep improving on this benchmark, but the rapidly growing gap shows that quantum processors are peeling away at a double exponential rate and will continue to vastly outperform classical computers as we scale up.
In a research paper published on Monday in the science journal Nature, Google said its machine had surpassed the “error correction threshold,” a milestone that scientists have been working toward for decades. That means quantum computers are on a path to a moment, still well into the future, when they can overcome their mistakes and perform calculations that could accelerate the progress of drug discovery. They could also break the encryption that protects computers vital to national security.
“What we really want these machines to do is run applications that people really care about,” said John Preskill, a theoretical physicist at the California Institute of Technology who specializes in quantum computing. “Though it still might be decades away, we will eventually see the impact of quantum computing on our everyday lives.”
Sidebar –Quantum Computing Explained:
A traditional computer like a laptop or a smartphone stores numbers in semiconductor memories or registers and then manipulates those numbers, adding them, multiplying them and so on. It performs these calculations by processing “bits” of information. Each bit holds either a 1 or a 0. But a quantum computer defies common sense. It relies on the mind-bending ways that some objects behave at the subatomic level or when exposed to extreme cold, like the exotic metal that Google chills to nearly 460 degrees below zero inside its quantum computer.
Quantum bits, or “qubits,” behave very differently from normal bits. A single object can behave like two separate objects at the same time when it is either extremely small or extremely cold. By harnessing that behavior, scientists can build a qubit that holds a combination of 1 and 0. This means that two qubits can hold four values at once. And as the number of qubits grows, a quantum computer becomes exponentially more powerful. Google builds “superconducting qubits,” where certain metals are cooled to extremely low temperatures.
Many other tech giants, including Microsoft, Intel and IBM, are building similar quantum technology as the United States jockeys with China for supremacy in this increasingly important field. As the United States has pushed forward, primarily through corporate giants and start-up companies, the Chinese government has said it is pumping more than $15.2 billion into quantum research.
With its latest superconducting computer, Google has claimed “quantum supremacy,” meaning it has built a machine capable of tasks that are beyond what any traditional computer can do. But these tasks are esoteric. They involve generating random numbers that can’t necessarily be applied to practical applications, like drug discovery.
Google and its rivals are still working toward what scientists call “quantum advantage,” when a quantum computer can accelerate the progress of other fields like chemistry and artificial intelligence or perform tasks that businesses or consumers find useful. The problem is that quantum computers still make too many errors.
Scientists have spent nearly three decades developing techniques — which are mind-bending in their own right — for getting around this problem. Now, Google has shown that as it increases the number of qubits, it can exponentially reduce the number of errors through complex analysis.
Experts believe it is only a matter of time before a quantum computer reaches its vast potential. “People no longer doubt it will be done,” Dr. Lukin said. “The question now is: When?”
References:
https://blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip/
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/technology/google-quantum-computing.html
Quantum Computers and Qubits: IDTechEx report; Alice & Bob whitepaper & roadmap
Bloomberg on Quantum Computing: appeal, who’s building them, how does it work?
China Mobile verifies optimized 5G algorithm based on universal quantum computer
SK Telecom and Thales Trial Post-quantum Cryptography to Enhance Users’ Protection on 5G SA Network
Quantum Technologies Update: U.S. vs China now and in the future
Can Quantum Technologies Crack RSA Encryption as China Researchers Claim?
China Telecom’s 2025 priorities: cloud based AI smartphones (?), 5G new calling (GSMA), and satellite-to-phone services
At the 2024 Digital Technology Ecosystem Conference last week, China Telecom executives identified AI, 5G new calling and satellite-to-phone services as its handset priorities for 2025. The state-owned network operator, like other China telcos, is working with local manufacturers to build the devices it wants to sell through its channels.
China Telecom’s smartphone priorities align with its major corporate objectives. As China Telecom vice president Li Jun explained, devices are critical right across the business. “Terminals are an extension of the cloud network, a carrier of services, and a user interface,” he said.
China Telecom Vice President Li Jun
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China Telecom Deputy General Manager Tang Ke, introduced the progress of China Telecom and its partners in AI and emerging terminal ecosystem cooperation. He stated that in 2024, China Telecom will achieve large-scale development of basic 5G services, with over 120 million new self-registered users annually and more than 140 models of phones supporting 5G messaging.
In terms of emerging businesses, leading domestic smartphone brands fully support direct satellite connection, with 20 models available and over 4 million units activated. Leading PC brands fully integrate Tianyi Cloud Computer, further enriching applications in work, education, life, and entertainment scenarios. Domestic phones fully support quantum secure calls, with over 50 million new self-registered users. Terminals fully support the upgrade to 800M, reaching over 100 million users. Besides phones to support direct-to-cell calling, it also hoped to develop low-cost positioning tech using Beidou and 5G location capabilities.
China Telecom continues to promote comprehensive AI upgrades of terminals, collaborating with partners to expand AI terminal categories and provide users with more diverse choices and higher-quality experiences. Tang Ke revealed that, at the main forum of the “2024 Digital Technology Ecosystem Conference,” China Telecom will release its first operator-customized AI phone.
Tang Ke emphasized that in the AI era, jointly building a collaborative and mutually promoting AI terminal ecosystem has become the inevitable path of industry development. Ecosystem participants must closely coordinate in technology, industry, and business to offer users the best AI experience. China Telecom will comprehensively advance technical collaboration, accelerating coordination from levels such as chips, large models, and intelligent agents, and promoting the construction of AI technology frameworks from both the device and cloud sides. The company will comprehensively push terminal AI upgrades, accelerating the AI development of wearables, healthcare, education, innovation, and industry terminals, based on key categories such as smartphones, cameras, cloud computers, and smart speakers.
Deputy Marketing Director Shao Yantao laid out the company’s device strategy for the year ahead. He said China Telecom’s business was based on networks, cloud-network integration and quantum security, with a focus on three technology directions – AI, 5G and satellites. With AI, it aims to carry out joint product development with OEM partners to build device-cloud capabilities and establish AI models. The state owned telco will pursue “domestic and foreign” projects in cloud-based AI mobile phones.
Besides smartphones, other AI-powered products next year would likely include door locks, speakers, glasses and watches, Shao said. The other big focus area is 5G new calling, based on new IMS DC (data channel) capabilities, with the aim of opening up new use cases like screen sharing and interactive games during a voice call.
China Telecom would develop its own open-source IMS DC SDK to support AI, payments, XR and other new functionality, Shao said. But he acknowledged the need to build cooperation across the industry ecosystem. The network operator and its partners would also collaborate on Voice over WiFI and 3CC carrier aggregation for 5G-Advanced devices, he added.
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China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) claims that China has built and activated over 4.1 million 5G base stations, with the 5G network continuously extending into rural areas, achieving “5G coverage in every township.” 5G has been integrated into 80 major categories of the national economy, with over 100,000 application cases accumulated. The breadth and depth of applications continue to expand, profoundly transforming lifestyles, production methods, and governance models.
The meeting emphasized the need to leverage the implementation of the “Sailing” Action Upgrade Plan for Large-scale 5G Applications as a means to vigorously promote the large-scale development of 5G applications, supporting new types of industrialization and the modernization of the information and communications industry, thereby laying a solid foundation for building a strong network nation and advancing Chinese-style modernization.
References:
https://www.c114.com.cn/news/22/c23811.html
https://en.c114.com.cn/583/a1279613.html
https://en.c114.com.cn/583/a1279469.html
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Aftermath of Salt Typhoon cyberattack: How to secure U.S. telecom networks?
Salt Typhoon Attack: On December 4, 2024, a top U.S. security agency representative confirmed reports that foreign actors, state-sponsored by the People’s Republic of China, infiltrated at least eight U.S. communications companies, compromising sensitive systems and exposing vulnerabilities in critical telecommunications infrastructure. This was part of a massive espionage campaign that has affected dozens of countries. Salt Typhoon has targeted telcos in dozens of countries for upward of two years, officials added.
Dated legacy network equipment and years of mergers and acquisitions are likely impeding the ability of telecommunications providers to prevent China inspired cyber-attacks. Until telecom operators fully secure their networks, China will keep finding ways to come back in, officials have warned.
- On Thursday, FCC chair Jessica Rosenworcel proposed a new annual certification requirement for telecom companies to prove they have an up-to-date cybersecurity risk management plan. More below.
- Senior Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and FBI officials confirmed Tuesday that U.S. telcos are still struggling to keep the China-backed hackers out of their networks — and they have no timeline for when total eviction is possible.
FCC Chair Jessica Rosenworcel suggested ‘telecom carriers’ raise their network security methods and procedures: “The cybersecurity of our nation’s communications critical infrastructure is essential to promoting national security, public safety, and economic security,” said Rosenworcel. “As technology continues to advance, so does the capabilities of adversaries, which means the U.S. must adapt and reinforce our defenses. “While the Commission’s counterparts in the intelligence community are determining the scope and impact of the Salt Typhoon attack, we need to put in place a modern framework to help companies secure their networks and better prevent and respond to cyberattacks in the future.”
Rosenworcel’s plan is to make U.S. telcos submit some kind of annual certification to the FCC, proving their cybersecurity measures are up to scratch. The clear inference from the attack itself and all the subsequent attempts to shut the stable door after the horse has bolted is that those efforts currently fall short of the mark. Understandably, none of the specific deficiencies have been publicly detailed.
These proposed FCC measures have been made available to the five members of the Commission. They may choose to vote on them at any moment. If adopted, the Declaratory Ruling would take effect immediately. The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, if adopted, would open for public comment the cybersecurity compliance framework, which is part of a broader effort to secure the nation’s communications infrastructure.
The FCC press release refers to a recent WSJ report based on an unpublished briefing from U.S. national security adviser Anne Neuberger, in which she detailed the scale of the Salt Typhoon attack. “The Chinese compromised private companies, exploiting vulnerabilities in their systems as part of a global Chinese campaign that’s affected dozens of countries around the world,” she was quoted as saying.
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
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Legacy network equipment and years of acquisitions have made it particularly difficult for telcos to patch every access point on their networks, Cliff Steinhauer, director of information security and engagement at the National Cybersecurity Alliance, told Axios.
- Many of the systems in question are nearly 50 years old — like landline systems — and they were “never meant for the type of sensitive data and reliance that we have on them right now,” he said.
- During an acquisition, a company could also miss a server when taking stock of all its newly acquired equipment, Steinhauer said. Network engineers are often inundated with security alerts that are hard to prioritize, he added.
- U.S. telecommunications carriers are required to provide a way for law enforcement to wiretap calls as needed — providing another entry point for adversaries.
Many of the security problems telcos face require simple fixes, like implementing multifactor authentication or maintaining activity logs.
- Even CISA’s recent guidance for securing networks focuses on the security basics.
- But to keep China out, telcos would have to make sure that every device — including their legacy physical equipment, online servers and employees’ computers — is patched.
Most high-profile cyberattacks across industries come down to the basics: a compute server that didn’t have multifactor authentication turned on or an employee who was tricked into sharing their password. Even if a company invests all of its resources in cybersecurity, it may not be enough to fend off a sophisticated nation-state like China.
- These actors are skilled at covering their tracks: They could delete activity logs, pose as legitimate users, and route their traffic through compromised computers in the U.S. so they aren’t detected.
- “You’ve got a persistent, motivated attacker with vast resources to poke and prod until they get in,” Mr. Steinhauer said.
References:
https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-408015A1.pdf
https://www.axios.com/2024/12/06/telecom-cybersecurity-china-hack-us
WSJ: T-Mobile hacked by cyber-espionage group linked to Chinese Intelligence agency
NTIA and DoD report: Spectrum Sharing strategy for users of lower 37 GHz band
In a new 31-page report, the U.S. NTIA and the DoD offered spectrum sharing recommendations for federal and non-federal users in the lower 37GHz band. The NTIA is the government agency that handles federal usage of spectrum. The FCC handles commercial spectrum usage.
“The FCC, NTIA and DoD began discussions in 2020 on the details of a coordination mechanism. These discussions resulted in a draft sharing framework, based on first-in user rights,” the NTIA wrote in a press release. Here’s the backgrounder from NTIA:
- Building on prior collaborative efforts of NTIA, DoD, and the FCC, the findings reflect coordination across a range of government and industry stakeholders.
- The recommendations for a sharing framework take advantage of the physical characteristics of this band, which is well-suited for short-range and line-of-sight wireless applications.
- The report recognizes the need for flexible access tailored to both Federal and non-Federal user requirements to foster technological advances and policy innovation.
With limited incumbent uses, the band presents a “clean slate” for developing a new model for co-primary Federal and non-Federal access. Specifically, this spectrum supports the creation of very narrow, directed beams and limited propagation for ground communications, making robust forms of sharing possible.
- U.S. policymakers have long recognized the unique sharing opportunities of the Lower 37 GHz band, as well as the need to protect Federal sites, including 15 military sites, five National Aeronautics and Space Administration receiving earth station operations and two National Science Foundation sites.
- In coordination with NTIA, the FCC in 2016 adopted an Order that concluded that non-Federal fixed and mobile applications can share 37-38.6 GHz with DoD operations. The Order made the Lower 37 GHz band available for co-primary sharing, with both Federal and non-Federal users accessing the band by registering sites through a coordination mechanism.
- In 2019, the FCC established service rules addressing Federal sites for a 2020 auction in the 37 GHz band, with sharing rules for 37.0-37.6 GHz to be addressed at a later date. Among other things, the decision added one Federal site to the list of protected Federal sites in the 37 GHz band and limited future DoD access to the 37.6-38.6 GHz (Upper 37 GHz) band unless the Department could demonstrate that its operations cannot be accommodated in the Lower 37 GHz band.
- To enable an innovative sharing approach for the Lower 37 GHz band, the FCC, NTIA and DoD began discussions in 2020 on the details of a coordination mechanism. These discussions resulted in a draft sharing framework, based on first-in user rights.
- Following the release of the NSS Implementation Plan, the FCC released a 2024 Public Notice, that sought information on sharing issues in the Lower 37 GHz band, including how to accommodate various use cases through a coordination mechanism between Federal and non-Federal operators.
Image Credit: Dmytro Razinkov/Alamy Stock Photo
The NTIA outlined a detailed, two-phase sharing process for the 37GHz band: “The first phase would use simple propagation models to determine whether there are overlapping contours and permit operations to proceed in the absence of any overlap,” the NTIA wrote. “The second phase would apply in the event of overlap between a proposed site registration and an existing site already registered in the database and would require the parties to exchange more detailed data and attempt to coordinate their operations.” Next the FCC would have to implement the NTIA’s sharing recommendations.
Expected uses of the Lower 37 GHz band include data-intensive applications, such as high speed, low latency 5G services. Wireless operators view this spectrum as well-suited for providing additional bandwidth, for example during large events through indoor distributed antenna deployments. Industry also sees value in the band for addressing increased demand for mobile network capacity by offloading traffic from other bands.
- Potential use cases include fixed wireless access; high-capacity backhaul; cable supplement for Internet of things (IoT) networks and augmented reality applications; and mobile or private networks that support industrial IoT, smart factories and other high-bandwidth indoor communications applications.
- Federal users, including DoD, may leverage some of this same technology, including as part of potential additional adaptations to meet mission requirements (e.g., hardening).
- Although not being proposed for any specific frequency allocation at this time, DoD is evaluating additional use cases to meet military missions, including: (1) Unmanned Systems to provide terrestrial or maritime to aeronautical mobile and potentially space to aeronautical mobile (maritime, terrestrial) unmanned systems; and (2) Wireless Power Transfer to provide a variety of capabilities currently in development by military research labs to deliver power to wireless communication systems, mobile vehicles, surface and subsurface vehicles, and other potential uses cases.
References:
https://www.lightreading.com/5g/dod-agrees-to-spectrum-sharing-paradigm-in-37ghz
T-Mobile and Charter propose 5G spectrum sharing in 42GHz band
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Quantum Computers and Qubits: IDTechEx report; Alice & Bob whitepaper & roadmap
Introduction:
In the last decade, the number of companies actively developing quantum computer hardware has quadrupled. Between 2022 and 2024 multiple funding rounds surpassing US$100 million have been closed, and the transition from lab-based toys to commercial product has begun. Competition is building in the quantum computing market, not only between different companies but between quantum computing technologies. The focus today has intensified on the need for logical or error-corrected qubits [1.]. The challenge ahead is to scale up hardware and increase qubit number while reducing errors as well as infrastructure demand. Leaders today have between 1 and 50 logical qubits, thousands are likely needed to provide a meaningful advantage over classical computing alternatives.
Note 1. Quantum computing is based on the use of qubits – the quantum equivalent to classical bits – the architectures available to create them vary substantially. Many are now familiar with IBM and their superconducting qubits – housed inside large cryostats and cooled to temperatures colder than deep space. Indeed, in 2023 superconducting quantum computers broke the 1000 qubit milestone – with smaller systems made accessible via the cloud for companies to trial out their problems.
However, many agree that the highest value problems – such as drug discovery – need many more qubits, perhaps millions more. As such, alternatives to the superconducting design, many proposing more inherent scalability, have received investment. There are now more than eight technology approaches meaningfully competing to reach the million-qubit milestone.
The quantum computing hardware market today has the unique property of seeing rapid growth in revenue generation despite remaining at a low technology readiness level. National laboratories and supercomputing centers are already investing in the installation of early-stage machines on premises, primarily for research but also to allow more local users the ability to ‘pay to play’. This is, in part, a result of the intensifying governmental stake in the technology – and its potential to provide significant economic and national security advantages in conjunction with quantum sensing and quantum communications. As a result, while multiple technical challenges remain, it appears that the race to commercial advantage could well be paved with gold for some. However, towards the end of the decade, as pressure mounts to deliver commercial value and return on investment – some of those leading the charge today may not necessarily prove to be the true winners in the long term.
With so many competing quantum computing technologies across a fragmented landscape, determining which approaches are likely to dominate is essential in identifying opportunities within this exciting industry. IDTechEx uses an in-house framework for quantum commercial readiness level to measure how quantum computer hardware is progressing in comparison with its classical predecessor. Furthermore, as the initial hype around quantum computing begins to cool investors will increasingly demand demonstration of practical benefits, such as quantum supremacy for commercially relevant algorithms. As such, hardware developers need to show not only the quality and quantity of qubits but the entire initialization, manipulation, and readout systems. Improving manufacturing scalability and reducing cooling requirements are also important, which will create opportunities for methodology agnostic providers of infrastructure such as speciality materials and cooling systems. By evaluating both the sector and competing quantum computing technologies, this report provides insight into the opportunities provided by this potentially transformative technology.
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Alice & Bob, a leading innovator in fault-tolerant quantum computing, just released their whitepaper and technology roadmap titled, “Think Inside the Box: Quantum Computing with Cat Qubits.”
Key highlights of the whitepaper:
- Exponential Error Reduction: Cat qubits simplify error correction by reducing it from a 2D to a 1D problem, achieving unmatched fidelity (99.999999%) and reducing hardware requirements by up to 200x compared to traditional approaches.
- Roadmap Milestones: Alice & Bob’s plan moves from mastering single qubits to developing commercially viable quantum computers by 2030, with transformative applications across industries such as finance, healthcare, and cybersecurity.
- Quantum Advantage: Their technology positions them to deliver practical solutions to computational problems that are currently beyond the reach of classical computing.
Image Credit: Alice & Bob
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The roadmap details five key milestones in Alice & Bob’s plan to deliver a universal, fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2030:
- Milestone 1: Master the Cat Qubit Achieved in 2024 with the Boson chip series, this milestone established a reliable, reproducible cat qubit capable of storing quantum information while resisting bit-flip errors. Milestone 2: Build a Logical Qubit Currently under development with the Helium chip series, this stage focuses on creating the company’s first error-corrected logical qubit operating below the error-correction threshold.
- Milestone 3: Fault-Tolerant Quantum Computing With the upcoming Lithium chip series, Alice & Bob aims to scale multi-logical-qubit systems and demonstrate the first error-corrected logical gate.
- Milestone 4: Universal Quantum Computing The Beryllium chip series will enable a universal set of logical gates enabled by magic state factories and live error correction, unlocking the ability to run any quantum algorithm.
- Milestone 5: Useful Quantum Computing The Graphene chip series, featuring 100 high-fidelity logical qubits, will deliver a quantum computer capable of demonstrating quantum advantage in early industrial use cases by 2030, integrating into existing high-performance computing (HPC) facilities.
“Our roadmap lays out a clear path to solving quantum’s toughest engineering challenges,” said Raphael Lescanne, CTO and Co-Founder of Alice & Bob. “Quantum computing can seem opaque, but it shouldn’t be. This white paper makes our technology and roadmap accessible for engineers, business leaders and tech enthusiasts alike.”
Achieving practical quantum advantage requires overcoming the errors inherent in quantum systems. Quantum error correction typically relies on additional qubits to detect and correct these errors, but the resource requirements grow quadratically with complexity, making large-scale, useful quantum computing a significant challenge.
Alice & Bob’s cat qubits offer a promising solution to this bottleneck. These superconducting chips feature an active stabilization mechanism that effectively shields the qubits from some external errors. This unique approach has enabled cat qubits to set the world record for bit-flip protection, one of the two major types of errors in quantum computing, effectively eliminating them.
This protection reduces error correction from a 2D problem to a simpler, 1D problem, enabling error correction to scale more efficiently. As a result, Alice & Bob can produce high-quality logical qubits with 99.9999% fidelity, what they call a “6-nines” logical qubit, using a fraction of the resources required by other approaches.
“Quantum computing should be a tool for solving useful problems in science and industry. This white paper shows how Alice & Bob’s cat qubits can bring that vision to life in a practical way by the decade’s end,” said Théau Peronnin CEO and co-founder of Alice & Bob.
References:
https://alice-bob.com/products/solution-the-box/
Bloomberg on Quantum Computing: appeal, who’s building them, how does it work?
China Mobile verifies optimized 5G algorithm based on universal quantum computer
Can Quantum Technologies Crack RSA Encryption as China Researchers Claim?
Quantum Technologies Update: U.S. vs China now and in the future
AT&T will be “quantum ready” by the year 2025
AT&T to deploy Fujitsu and Mavenir radio’s in crowded urban areas
AT&T announced today that it has signed new agreements with Fujitsu and Mavenir to develop radios specifically for crowded urban areas in its Open RAN deployment using Ericsson hardware and software. The goal is to improve network performance and coverage in cities with lots of mobile data traffic.
These radios will be open C-band radios (TDD 4T4R) and dual band radios (B25/B66 FDD 4T4R) which can be attached to existing utility and light poles. They can often be hidden, making them virtually unseen from street level. We are continuing to look for opportunities to bring additional third-party radios into the network when needed.
All open radios will be managed by Ericsson’s Intelligent Automation Platform (EIAP) via open management interfaces. EIAP is Ericsson’s open network management and service orchestration platform. It supports replacing the old legacy equipment and installing the new radios without missing a beat.
When Open RAN architectures are combined with innovative applications called ‘rApps’ from either the operator or third parties, they can greatly improve the customer experience. This is achieved through better network performance, wider coverage, cost efficiency, and fosters innovation. ‘rAPPs’ are expected to play a critical role in managing and sustaining third party radio innovation opportunities.
AT&T is moving 70% of its 5G network traffic to flow across Open RAN hardware by late 2026 – our customers can relax and enjoy a better wireless experience.
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Mavenir has been selling open RAN software for years, but it entered the 5G radio sector in 2022 with its OpenBeam brand. Mavenir’s radios for AT&T will be managed by Ericsson’s Intelligent Automation Platform (EIAP).
AT&T said it would only use Mavenir radios in “crowded urban areas,” which are typically covered by small cell radios rather than massive macro cell sites. The operator did not say how many Mavenir radios it would use nor when it might start deploying those radios.
“Maybe the initial thinking is it’s small cells, but there’s a bigger strategy at play here,” AT&T’s Jeff McElfresh said during a media event on Tuesday. McElfresh explained that small cells could play an important role inside AT&T’s network as network traffic increases. After all, small cells are viewed as a way to increase overall wireless network capacity in the absence of additional spectrum.
Mavenir’s other 5G radio customers include Paradise Mobile and Triangle Communications.
Aramco Digital, the tech-focused subsidiary of oil giant Saudi Aramco, is poised to invest $1 billion into Mavenir for a significant minority stake in the business.
That cash is needed. S&P Global recently warned that Mavenir is close to default or restructuring because it has insufficient funds to cover looming debt obligations.
References:
https://about.att.com/blogs/2024/open-ran-new-collaborations.html
https://www.lightreading.com/open-ran/at-t-to-deploy-radios-from-mavenir
NTT advert in WSJ: Why O-RAN Will Change Everything; AT&T selects Ericsson for its O-RAN
New FCC Chairman Carr Seen Clarifying Space Rules and Streamlining Approvals Process
Incoming Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairman Brendan Carr will place a major focus on deregulation of commercial space activities and streamlining the approvals processes, space policy according to Communications Daily. Carr has said faster licensing and permitting of commercial space operations will be a priority.
FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr is the senior Republican on the FCC, having served previously as the FCC’s General Counsel. Nominated by both President Trump and President Biden, Carr has been confirmed unanimously by the Senate three times. Described by Axios as “the FCC’s 5G crusader,” Carr has led the FCC’s work to modernize its infrastructure rules and accelerate the buildout of high-speed networks. His reforms cut billions of dollars in red tape, enabled the private sector to construct high-speed networks in communities across the country, and extended America’s global leadership in 5G.
FCC Commissioner Brendan Carr has been nominated by Donald Trump to be the next FCC Chairman. Photo Credit: FCC
In addition, some expect long-awaited clarity on what agency oversees novel space missions like in-orbit servicing, assembly and manufacturing, or asteroid mining. Moreover, the experts anticipate increased openness about the use of satellite communications in federal programs fighting the digital divide.
Satellite Industry Association (SIA) President Tom Stroup said a policy shift that would include satellites becoming a qualified provider of broadband for federally funded programs is likely. The Biden administration effectively excluded satellite use, and there needs to be “an honest discussion” about the sector’s potential role, space lawyer Jim Dunstan said.
Space policy is often relatively consistent from administration to administration, though with some tweaks, said Michelle Hanlon, executive director of the Center for Air and Space Law at the University of Mississippi School of Law. She said that aside from a reduction of regulatory red tape, there also could be a reconciling of agencies’ orbital debris policies. Commercial space operators generally would like to see Commerce’s Office of Space Commerce as the regulator of novel space activities, as long as it is adequately staffed. But regardless of who has the oversight, the biggest need is a final decision on authority, she said. The Republican trifecta of the White House, the House and Senate could bring a resolution, Hanlon said.
The FCC under Carr might not be as aggressive as it has been on orbital debris regulation, but it won’t neglect it altogether, emailed Michael Dodge, University of North Dakota space studies associate professor. He said the space industry likely sees Carr as friendly toward its goals.
Summit Ridge Group’s Armand Musey stated that it’s hard to overstate SpaceX’s impact on the commercial space sector, and its progress will likely dominate most investment decisions. He said Carr’s seeming openness toward allowing satellite participation in broadband access programs like BEAD and the rural digital opportunity fund will benefit Starlink, but also Viasat and the industry broadly. At SpaceX’s urging, Carr is also likely more open than Democrats to increases in power levels for non-geostationary orbit satellite systems, Musey predicted. That could benefit direct-to-device operators, including Starlink, but also AST SpaceMobile, Globalstar and Lynk, he said. M&As under Carr and a Republican DOJ could be somewhat looser for space-related deals, and larger transactions might face fewer conditions, he added.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s friendly relationship with President-elect Donald Trump and Carr could benefit commercial space operators broadly, but it’s also raising eyebrows, sources agree. Musk’s role as co-head of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency advisory committee will provide him with considerable influence, “and people will wonder where the lines might blur between a business seeking governmental approvals, and an advisor seeking benefits for his business,” Dodge said.
References:
https://www.fcc.gov/about/leadership/brendan-carr
https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/18/media/brendan-carr-trump-fcc-nominee-project-2025/index.html
FCC: More competition for Starlink; freeing up spectrum for satellite broadband service
FCC approves EchoStar/Dish request to extend timeline for its 5G buildout
FCC restores net neutrality order, but court challenges loom large
Analysis: FCC attempt to restore Net Neutrality & U.S. standards for broadband reliability, security, and consumer protection
FCC Draft Net Neutrality Order reclassifies broadband access; leaves 5G network slicing unresolved
FCC increases broadband speed benchmark (x-satellites) to 100/20 Mbit/s
FCC legal advisor: Potential End of ACP Is the ‘Biggest Challenge’ Facing the Broadband Marketplace
Highlights of FCC Notice of Inquiry (NOI) on radio spectrum usage & how AI might be used
TechCrunch: Meta to build $10 billion Subsea Cable to manage its global data traffic
Meta, the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, is reportedly planning to build its first fully owned, large-scale fiber-optic subsea cable extending around the globe. The project, spanning over 40,000 kilometers, is expected to require an investment of more than $10 billion. The purpose is to enhance Meta’s infrastructure to meet the growing demand for data usage driven by its artificial intelligence (AI) products and services, according to a report by TechCrunch. Meta accounts for 10% of all fixed and 22% of all mobile traffic and its AI investments promise to boost that usage even further.
TechCrunch has confirmed with sources close to the company that Meta plans to build a new, major, fiber-optic subsea cable extending around the world — a 40,000+ kilometer project that could total more than $10 billion of investment. Critically, Meta will be the sole owner and user of this subsea cable — a first for the company and thus representing a milestone for its infrastructure efforts.
Image Credit: Sunil Tagare
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Meta’s infrastructure work is overseen by Santosh Janardhan, who is the company’s head of global infrastructure and co-head of engineering. The company has teams globally who look at and plan out its infrastructure — and it has achieved some significant industry figures work for it in the past. In the case of this upcoming project, it is being conceived out of the company’s South Africa operation, according to sources.
Fiber-optic subsea cables have been a part of communications infrastructure for the last 40 years. What’s significant here is who is putting the money down to build and own it — and for what purposes.
Meta’s plans underscore how investment and ownership of subsea networks has shifted in recent years from consortiums involving telecoms carriers, to now also include big tech giants. According to telecom analysts Telegeography, Meta is part-owner of 16 existing networks, including most recently the 2Africa cable that encircles the continent (others in that project are carriers including Orange, Vodafone, China Mobile, Bayobab/MTN and more). However, this new cable project would be the first wholly owned by Meta itself.
That would put Meta into the same category as Google, which has involvement in some 33 different routes, including a few regional efforts in which it is the sole owner, per Telegeography’s tracking. Other big tech companies that are either part owners or capacity buyers in subsea cables include Amazon and Microsoft (neither of which are whole-owners of any route themselves).
There are a number of reasons why building subsea cables would appeal to big tech companies like Meta.
First, sole ownership of the route and cable would give Meta first dibs in capacity to support traffic on its own properties.
Meta, like Google, also plays up the lift it has provided to regions by way of its subsea investments, claiming that projects like Marea in Europe and others in Southeast Asia have contributed more than “half a trillion dollars” to economies in those areas.
Yet there is a more pragmatic impetus for these investments: tech companies — rather than telecoms carriers, traditional builders and owners of these cables — want to have more direct ownership of the pipes needed to deliver content, advertising and more to users around the world.
According to its earnings reports, Meta makes more money outside of North America than in its home market itself. Having priority on dedicated subsea cabling can help ensure quality of service on that traffic. (Note: this is just to ensure long-haul traffic: the company still has to negotiate with carriers within countries and in ‘last-mile’ delivery to users’ devices, which can have its challenges.)
References:
Meta plans to build a $10B subsea cable spanning the world, sources say
Google’s Bosun subsea cable to link Darwin, Australia to Christmas Island in the Indian Ocean
“SMART” undersea cable to connect New Caledonia and Vanuatu in the southwest Pacific Ocean
Telstra International partners with: Trans Pacific Networks to build Echo cable; Google and APTelecom for central Pacific Connect cables
Orange Deploys Infinera’s GX Series to Power AMITIE Subsea Cable
NEC completes Patara-2 subsea cable system in Indonesia
SEACOM telecom services now on Equiano subsea cable surrounding Africa
Google’s Equiano subsea cable lands in Namibia en route to Cape Town, South Africa
China seeks to control Asian subsea cable systems; SJC2 delayed, Apricot and Echo avoid South China Sea
HGC Global Communications, DE-CIX & Intelsat perspectives on damaged Red Sea internet cables