Author: Alan Weissberger
WiFi 7 and the controversy over 6 GHz unlicensed vs licensed spectrum
Introduction:
Even though the IEEE 802.11be standard is yet to be released officially, there are currently Wi-Fi 7 routers on the market from many major vendors. Wi-Fi 7 provides significantly faster speeds then WiFi 6 (IEEE 802.11ax), with ultra-low latencies and a better communication channel. Thereby, more devices can be connected efficiently.
Wi-Fi 7 routers are capable of delivering wireless data transfer speeds of up to 46 Gbps, which is five times greater than that of Wi-Fi 6E routers. Wi-Fi 7 routers can also operate on multiple bands: carrier frequency operation is between 1 and 7.250 GHz while ensuring backward compatibility and coexistence with legacy IEEE Std 802.11 compliant devices operating in the 2.4 GHz, 5 GHz, and 6 GHz bands. Latency is also lower with a Wi-Fi 7 router and channel connections are more efficient.
Some Wi-Fi 7 routers include the NETGEAR Nighthawk Tri-Band WiFi 7 Router BE19000 Wireless Speed, the TP-Link BE9300 Tri-Band Wi-Fi 7 Router ARCHER BE550, and the ASUS BE96U Tri-Band WiFi 7 Router RT-BE96U.
6 GHz Band Controversy:
As of September 2023, the following countries have adopted the policy of making the entire 6 GHz band available for unlicensed use: U.S., South Korea, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Costa Rica, Peru. Canada has also made 1200 MHz of 6 GHz spectrum available for unlicensed services. The 6 GHz band is the largest allocation of unlicensed spectrum in the US and South Korea.
Some other countries that have enabled Wi-Fi in the 6 GHz band include: Andorra, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, CEPT.
China has chosen a licensed approach for the 6 GHz band, using the entire 1,200 MHz for 5G and future 6G services.
The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (Trai) suggests that the lower end of the 6 GHz spectrum band can be allocated for unlicensed use, such as WiFi, while the upper end can be licensed for telecom use. Netgear said that the India DoT (Department of Telecommunications) is considering to delicense the lower band 6 GHz spectrum.
However, WRC 23 agreed to open up the 6 GHz band for future high-speed mobile communications (instead of for unlicensed WiFi). The 6 GHz band (6.425-7.125 GHz) – was identified for mobile in every ITU Region – EMEA, the Americas and the Asia Pacific. Countries representing more than 60% of the world’s population asked to be included in the identification of this band for licensed mobile at WRC-23. The 6 GHz spectrum is now the harmonized home for the expansion of mobile capacity for 5G-Advanced and beyond.
References:
https://standards.ieee.org/ieee/802.11be/7516/
https://spectrum.ieee.org/what-is-wifi-7
WRC-23 concludes with decisions on low-band/mid-band spectrum and 6G (?)
MediaTek Introduces Global Ecosystem of Wi-Fi 7 Products at CES 2023
Highlights of Qualcomm 5G Fixed Wireless Access Platform Gen 3
Qualcomm FastConnect 7800 combining WiFi 7 and Bluetooth in single chip
Intel and Broadcom complete first Wi-Fi 7 cross-vendor demonstration with speeds over 5 Gbps
China’s telecom industry business revenue at $218B or +6.9% YoY
China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said that in the first eleven months of 2023, the telecommunication industry’s collective business revenue soared to 1.55 trillion yuan, approximately 218 billion U.S. dollars, marking a 6.9% year-on-year increase.
Emerging sectors such as big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things (IoT) have shown significant growth. China’s three state owned network providers, China Telecom, China Mobile, and China Unicom have leveraged these technologies to catalyze a 20.1 percent surge in revenue from these areas, amounting to 332.6 billion yuan.
Cloud computing and big data have experienced explosive growth. Revenue from cloud computing surging by 39.7 percent and big data by 43.3 percent compared to the previous year. These figures underscore the central role of data-driven technologies in powering China’s telecom industry forward.
Broadband internet services continue to be a strong revenue stream for the three telecom giants, generating 240.4 billion yuan from January to November, which is an 8.5 percent increase year on year. This growth reflects the increasing demand for high-speed internet across China, as the country continues to embrace digital transformation in all sectors.
In conclusion, China’s telecommunication industry’s growth narrative in 2023 is not just a story of numbers but a chronicle of technological evolution and its integration into the fabric of society. With emerging sectors leading the charge, the industry’s upward trajectory seems poised to continue, as these technologies become increasingly embedded in the everyday lives of businesses and consumers alike.
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Separately, Mordor Intelligence forecasts the China Telecom Market size is expected to grow from USD 478.92 billion in 2023 to USD 547.43 billion by 2028, at a CAGR of 2.71% during the forecast period (2023-2028).
References:
https://english.news.cn/20231223/36996f5176e24d48a5677ddc160c99a5/c.html
China’s Telecom Sector Soars with Big Data and Cloud Computing Growth
https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/china-telecom-market
Strand Consult’s 2024 Telecom Predictions
by John Strand, Founder and CEO of Strand Consult
Introduction:
2024 is poised to be an important year as more than half of the world’s population is poised to vote. Elections create clarity and regime change. They are pivotal because they signal national policy direction for industry and society, not the least being mobile telecom stakeholders. Following are Strand Consult’s hard thoughts on the year ahead. For some holiday mirth and an insightful summary of the challenges facing the telecom industry in 2024, listen to the Telecoms.com podcast featuring telecom legend Denis O’Brien from Digicel in conversation with editors Scott Bicheno (Telecoms.com) and Iain Morris (Light Reading.com).
Geopolitics
2024 is an election year, and more than half of the world’s population are scheduled to vote in 2024. Four critical elections will be held in the Free World: Taiwan on January 23; General elections in India in April-May; the European Parliament on 6 to 9 June; and the US Presidential election on November 5. Separately, a press release notes that a Russian presidential election will be held on 15 to 17 March, and Vladimir Putin will get a fifth term. China canceled free elections again in 2024.
There is limited policymaking in countries during election years, so the policy action is likely to be in the countries in off-election years. However, elections may slow needed action to address conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.
Moreover, China continues to partner with dictators, and grow more aggressive. General Secretary Xi Jinping faces limited opposition and critical press. However, many see his reign as a disaster including the mishandling of Covid, the souring economy, and the lost goodwill with other nations, particularly as XI cozies up to Russia’s Putin, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani.
There still remain mobile telecom operators in the free world which espouse democratic values and yet partner with China’s Huawei and ZTE. The operators reject the claim of security risk and dismiss or downplay the demonstrated control Xi and the party exact on China’s enterprises. The policy secure networks in US and EU has nothing to do with trade, but rather reflects the reality that China has changed fundamentally in the last decade.
2024 will also show the results of the implementation of the EU 5G security toolbox with increased attention on trusted versus non-trusted operators, not just vendors. Nations outside the EU will be inspired by the diplomatic EU approach.
Misguided Regulation
When Strand Consult launched almost 30 years ago, “regulation” had little to no impact on the industry. There were no internet activists trolling telecom regulatory authorities. Today, however, regulation can have a huge impact for both good and ill.
A decade ago Strand Consult published the report The EU’s Broadband and Telecom policy is not working. Europe is falling further behind the US documenting how US operators invested twice as much in infrastructure as their European counterparts over a long period. That trend is ongoing. The US still invests at twice the rate of the EU; the EU is further behind, and the EU gap to close the digital divide has widened from €150 billion to €274 billion.
2024 will be another year in which the EU will publish reports showing that Europe is behind. And yet, European policymakers continue to reject solutions like in-country consolidation which could help firms improve their business case for growth and investment and could ultimately improve the dismal picture for the EU.
Meanwhile the United States, India, and many African nations have completed successful consolidations. The operating results of most telecom firms in these countries are better than those in Europe. EU policymakers accept the status quo of ever-worsening returns and a growing investment deficit.
When it comes to creating better conditions for infrastructure deployment, Europe is also far behind other parts of the world. The only exception in the EU is Denmark, where Strand Consult’s research which started 10 years ago, has made it easier and significantly cheaper to roll out infrastructure in Denmark.
The EU Parliament’s Gigabit Infrastructure Act introduced this year promises faster rollout of gigabit-capable connectivity. It is a solution that helps fixed infrastructure providers. The question remains as to how many years it takes before implementation at the local level. Strand Consult does not expect to see this the effect of this Act in 2024, or even for some years, given rising interest rates. Simply put, the EU bill is too little and about 15 years too late.
The EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) proposes to regulate online content and social media platforms. The big question is how to implement it in practice. It will be interesting to see whether Big Tech will censor EU policymakers. There is a similar hubris with the EU’s Artificial Intelligence Act (AI Act) and how it promises “transparency” of algorithms. It’s hard to believe that any European official has the skills to make such an assessment. As AI business models have yet to be proven, the regulation seems premature. No bureaucrat can say whether Google, Microsoft, AWS, ChatGPT, or some other entity has the better AI solution.
Chips, chips, and Chinese chips
All chips matter – whether NVIDIA’s state of the art chips for AI or workhorse memory chips. This has only been heightened by the supply chain shortages driven by Covid-19 and security challenges. Russia, Iran, North Korea and China want advanced chips used for military purposes. Free world nations have imposed restrictions on chips for certain military users; this could only work because firms in the US, Netherlands, Korea, Japan, and Taiwan have the relevant IP.
China is heavily dependent on this advanced chip technology, and indeed firms of all kinds try to work around these rules. Some companies even break them with the expectation that they won’t be caught or fined (See Applied Materials). China has tried for 40 years to get a leadership position in advanced chips with limited success. However, though size and scale, China can impact global chip supply with currency manipulation and by flooding the market with low-end products.
In 2024 China will bombard the media with propaganda saying that if they can’t get an advanced supply of chips, then they will make it themselves. This should be taken with a grain of salt. Strand Consult describes Huawei’s challenges given chip restrictions and its various workarounds and creative messaging. Huawei is diversifying its business and doing an IBM-style transformation, going from a hardware company to a software/service one. It could make Huawei less dependent on its own hardware.
Chip policy will stay salient in 2024.
OpenRAN vs. 3GPP 5G RAN
Strand Consult’s predictions about OpenRAN have been spot on, revealing the stories to be the greater part of hype rather than market value. OpenRAN revenue as a share of the mobile infrastructure market is miniscule, but OpenRAN takes an outsized share of press and policymaker attention owing to Washington policy spin and Hollywood storytelling.
The party version of OpenRAN is to break incumbent vendor lock-in, reduce costs, promote innovation, and simplify network deployment and upgrade. This approach has gained attention and support from some telecommunications industry players, standardization bodies, and regulatory authorities to enhance competition and accelerate the development of 5G and beyond. However compelling a storyline, the reality is that OpenRAN does not provide a meaningful technical and commercial alternative to existing RAN players Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung.
In other words, you can’t put a hodge podge of virtual elements in a 1:1 matchup for existing RAN solutions. There are a few one-off OpenRAN solutions, but these are sideshows. There are proprietary RAN solutions that can connect to different interfaces. OpenRAN has the same function as a USB cable when connecting an iPhone with a Windows PC. With the new OpenRAN specifications launched in Osaka this summer, it is equivalent to going from using a USB-A to a lightning cable to using a USB-C to a USB-C cable.
Of the 200 3GPP/5G networks deployed globally, just three could be classified as OpenRAN. Of the install base of 5G RAN base stations, OpenRAN has about 1 percent market share of the install 5G base.
2024 could see the O-RAN Alliance folded into 3GPP. Or it could be pushed to 2025. 3GPP already works with many open interfaces, and this will drive the O-RAN Alliance to dismantle itself. The key stumbling block to OpenRAN implementation is operators themselves; they don’t want more complexity in networks. There is still value to the one-stop shop, as AT&T just demonstrated with its 5-year, $14 billion deal with Ericsson.
Business models
Over the last 25 years, the mobile telecom industry has moved from selling volume-based traffic to flat rate, all you can eat models. This has been driven for a variety of reasons. However, we predict 2024 will mark a shift with more flexibility at the high and low end of the market, read high value premium service for gamers and packages with bespoke services for the budget market.
Something’s gotta give. Internet adoption has stalled with 2.6 billion people globally offline for lack of access and affordability. Interest rates are rising, and average revenue per user (ARPU) is falling. Alternatively, we could see some nations allow needed in-market consolidation.
Operators have tried and failed to launch new platforms (think Orange World, Vodafone Live, GSMA’s OneAPI). In the year 2000, there was a 3G dream to double ARPU, from €36 to €72 Euro. Today ARPU is at or below €14 in many European countries. OTT solutions like Skype and WhatApp have proven more successful. Hence Strand Consult is not optimistic for GSMA’s Open Gateway in 2024.
For a deep dive on the state the mobile operators today, read Strand Consult’s latest research note Has the iPhone improved the mobile operators’ business case? which revisits Strand Consult’s groundbreaking report.
Operators have four key challenges:
- Regulation which prevents business model innovation and competition with OTTs
- Competition with other operators
- Customer budget constraint
- Operators’ lack of creativity, innovation, product development, strategy etc.
Connectivity may be the most compelling service on this earth. Just turn off the internet to a 9-year-old boy’s iPhone. The problem is that telecommunications providers have not succeeded to monetize sufficiently the value they provide. Ironically connectivity is increasingly valuable, yet its unit price continues to fall, and consumers expect greater value at a ever falling price point.
Broadband cost recovery and fair share
2024 will likely see the reboot of the Free Ride Prevention Act in South Korea, as firms like Google’s Alphabet which devour more than a quarter of the nation’s bandwidth, refuse to come to the table to negotiate. There is also likely to be progress in the USA, India, and Brazil where proceedings are underway, among other countries. Given recent court cases proving that Big Tech pays for placement, the arguments against fair share have been demolished. Moreover, the court cases have documented systematic Big Tech strong-arming, if not abuse of market power. Expect Big Tech to be more open to dealmaking in lieu of being regulated. Check out Strand Consult’s Global Research Project for Broadband Cost Recovery, Affordability, and Fair Share for more information.
Satellite Industry: Musk vs. Bezos
2024 will see more focus on the use of the low earth orbit (LEO) satellites. The fight between Elon Musk (Starlink) and Jeff Bezos (Kuiper) overshadows the big picture. Musk’s Starlink is lightyear’s ahead of Bezos’ Kuiper and already has 5,420 satellites orbiting the Earth; Kuiper has just two satellites. Bezos and Musk share the same dream; the difference is that Musk has already delivered. Bezos has opened his first satellite burger bar. Musk owns the interstellar McDonald’s.
Starlink has first-mover advantage and some lock-in tech dependence. It has access to cheap lifting capacity to get its satellites into space and to operate ground stations. Even with the FCC’s partisan cancelling of $886 million in subsidies (which appears to be a punishment for Musk buying Twitter and not towing the progressive party line), the company is still likely to succeed as it thrives on overcoming adversity and challenge. Satellite is here to stay as a bona fide broadband technology, and 2024 will only make that clearer.
Wrap up
As some 4 billion people go to the polls in 2024, some important policy may be put on hold, and broadband shortfalls will remain. At the same time, voters have a valuable opportunity to signal a change in leadership and direction. However, many governments will promote policy and legislation to improve access to 5G and broadband.
Rising interest rates will have a negative impact on investment. Fiber will be hit harder than mobile, and emerging markets will have a tougher time than the developed world.
While we don’t expect a business model revolution, we expect many operators to increase prices for connectivity. And indeed, many nations will further their broadband cost recovery and fair share policy solutions to improve access and affordability.
We also predict management cleanup. CEOs who have not delivered will be let go. Consider Vodafone which was Europe’s most capitalized company in year 2000 with well over $300 billion; it has shrunk to $24 billion today. Its main success during this period was to divest Verizon in USA. Its multi billion investment in India was a dismal failure and was written off the balance sheet.
Despite the security and reputational risk, Vodafone continues to work closely with Huawei and uses this equipment across many countries. The company appointed a new CEO in early 2023. Strand Consult observed that Vodafone needs a “cleaner” like Harvey Keitel The Wolf in “Pulp Fiction.” Or they need Meryl Streep from the The Iron Lady, not the Meryl Streep in Mama Mia! Margherita Della Valle’s performance at Vodafone is associated with a falling share price.
Strand Consult does not expect to see results for mobile telecom shareholders driven by GSMA or ENTO. However, these organizations will likely continue to pay their top management high salaries. GSMA CEO Mats Granryd gets $2.4 million in annual salary to hold trade shows featuring increasingly Huawei and Meta while serving on the board of Swedish National TV and chairing Vattenfall AB and Coore AB.
Elections and security of national infrastructure will take center stage in 2024. China will wage a proxy war against those countries which don’t adopt its equipment and service platforms. With growing interest rates and inflation, there is little to make telecom shareholders happy in the coming year.
In 2023 Strand Consult published many research notes and reports and featured cool people on its guest blog. Strand Consult’s analysis was quoted in some 1000 news stories globally. Our work took us to all the continents except Antarctica. Our readership continues to grow. For the last 23 years, Strand Consult has made predictions for the coming year. Our archive shows that we get it right.
Thank you for your support and readership.
Feel free to reach me at [email protected]
References:
StrandConsult Analysis: European Commission second 5G Cybersecurity Toolbox report
StrandConsult: 2022 Year in Review & 2023 Outlook for Telecom Industry
Strand Consult: Open RAN hype vs reality leaves many questions unanswered
O-RAN Alliance tries to allay concerns; Strand Consult disagrees!
Strand Consult: What NTIA won’t tell the FCC about Open RAN
Ookla: T-Mobile and Verizon lead in U.S. 5G FWA
The U.S. is at the forefront of fixed wireless access (FWA) deployments, with many major wireless carriers, including T-Mobile, Verizon, AT&T and UScellular targeting expansion.
T-Mobile has built up a lead in terms of 5G fixed-wireless market share, with Verizon following closely, and AT&T recently launching a new FWA service – AT&T Internet Air. We examined Ookla Speedtest data to understand how FWA performance is evolving in the U.S., and how it is impacting churn in the market.
Key Points:
- T-Mobile & Verizon 5G FWA performance holding up well nationally. Despite strong customer growth, both T-Mobile and Verizon have maintained performance levels over the past year according to Speedtest data. Both ISPs recorded similar median download speeds in Q3 2023, although T-Mobile maintains an edge on median upload performance. Despite this, there are significant differences in performance at a State-level, and for urban versus rural locations.
- Cable & DSL providers bear the brunt of user churn. The FWA value proposition is clearly resonating most with existing cable and DSL customers, which make up the vast bulk of churners to both T-Mobile’s and Verizon’s FWA services. It’s not one-way traffic however, with T-Mobile’s larger user base in particular showing some attrition to cable providers. In rural locations where options are more limited, FWA services are increasingly going head to head, with over 10% of users joining Verizon’s FWA service coming from T-Mobile.
- Clear signs that download performance could be a key contributor to churn in the market. Our analysis of the customers of major ISPs in the US that have churned to T-Mobile’s FWA service shows that their median download performance before churning was below the median performance of all customers of these ISPs, indicating a performance short-fall that is likely contributing towards churn.
- Further C-band spectrum will serve to strengthen FWA’s case. The release and deployment of additional C-band spectrum for all three national cellular carriers, and AT&T’s new FWA service will drive further performance gains, and further competitive pressure in 2024.
T-Mobile and Verizon FWA scaling strongly and national performance holding up well:
Launched during the COVID-19 pandemic, FWA services from T-Mobile and Verizon have seen strong growth over the past three years. Aided by disruptive pricing strategies, no annual contracts, and ease of installation (self-install), net additions remain strong for both ISPs. T-Mobile’s current FWA plan retails for $50/month, but that falls to $30/month for customers subscribing to its Magenta MAX mobile plan. Verizon prices at a slight premium to T-Mobile, with its FWA service currently retailing for $60/month, but falling to $35/month with select 5G mobile plans. On the back of their success we’ve also recently seen AT&T update its FWA strategy, launching AT&T Internet Air in August 2023, with a similar pricing strategy.
Utilizing the same 5G spectrum that its mobile customer base accesses, both T-Mobile and Verizon have been at pains to point out how they manage the on-boarding of new FWA customers, in order to limit any negative impact on performance for both cellular and FWA customers. The release and rollout of additional C-band spectrum for all three operators will provide extra headroom and the potential for improved 5G FWA performance, while T-Mobile has begun testing 5G Standalone mmWave, and has indicated that this could be utilized for 5G FWA in the future.
Performance on T-Mobile’s and Verizon’s 5G FWA services has held up well to date, although it lags behind median download performance of the major cable and fiber ISPs. The median download speed across the US for all fixed providers combined in Q3 2023 was 207.42 Mbps. T-Mobile has recorded consistent median download speed over the past four quarters, reaching 122.48 Mbps in Q3 2023 based on Speedtest data, but saw its median upload performance erode slightly, down from 19.76 Mbps in Q4 2022, to 17.09 Mbps in Q3 2023. Verizon on the other hand improved its median download performance when compared to Q4 2022, reaching a similar level to T-Mobile, of 121.23 Mbps in Q3 2023. However, its upload performance remained lower than T-Mobile’s, at 11.53 Mbps.
Ookla’s Speedtest data was used to identify the number of churned users since Q2 2022, when FWA services really started to scale and impact the rest of the market. The bulk of churn for both T-Mobile’s and Verizon’s 5G FWA services are coming from cable and DSL providers, confirming what the service providers have said.
The market research firm said that performance on T-Mobile’s and Verizon’s 5G FWA services has held up well to date, although it lags behind median download performance of the major cable and fiber ISPs.
Ookla clocked the median download speed across the U.S. for all fixed providers combined in Q3 2023 at 207.42 Mbps. T-Mobile recorded consistent median download speed over the past four quarters, reaching 122.48 Mbps in Q3 2023 based on Speedtest data, but saw its median upload performance erode slightly, from 19.76 Mbps in Q4 2022 to 17.09 Mbps in Q3 2023.
Meanwhile, Verizon improved its median download performance when compared to Q4 2022, reaching a similar level to T-Mobile, of 121.23 Mbps in Q3 2023. However, its upload performance remained lower than T-Mobile’s, at 11.53 Mbps, Ookla said.
While median performance has remained fairly steady for both operators over the past year, Ookla said it’s a different story when it comes to regional performance and between urban and rural regions.
Rural locations – predictably – fared worse than urban locations for both T-Mobile and Verizon 5G FWA service, given differences in spectrum availability and distance from cell sites, although the difference was starker for Verizon’s FWA service, Ookla said. Verizon’s FWA service recorded a median of 155.77 Mbps in urban locations during Q3 2023, but only 51.41 Mbps in rural locations.
T-Mobile increased rural FWA performance, from 82.20 Mbps in Q4 of 2022 to 91.96 Mbps in Q3 2023. Verizon’s performance in urban locations improved, with the 155.77 Mbps it achieved in Q3 2023 representing a sizable increase on the 125.55 Mbps it recorded in Q4 2022.
All of the big mobile operators, including AT&T with Internet Air, will see improved 5G FWA performance with additional C-band spectrum, and T-Mobile could potentially use millimeter wave on its 5G standalone (SA) network for FWA, Ookla noted.
References:
https://www.ookla.com/articles/fixed-wireless-access-us-q3-2023
https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/t-mobile-verizon-5g-fwa-performance-holds-ookla
SK Telecom and Thales Trial Post-quantum Cryptography to Enhance Users’ Protection on 5G SA Network
Korean telco SK Telecom and digital security firm Thales have tested quantum-resistant cryptography based on a 5G standalone (5G SA) network. The trial is focused on encrypting and decrypting identity data on a 5G network to protect user privacy from future quantum threats. It was performed using Thales 5G Post Quantum Cryptography (PQC) SIM cards and a trial 5G standalone network environment from SKT. The test involved cryptographic algorithms designed to resist attacks from quantum computers, as well as ‘classical’ computers.
The end user identity on the 5G SA network is concealed and secured on the device side via the 5G SIM card. The security mechanisms involve cryptographic algorithms designed to resist attacks from future quantum computers, providing a level of security that is considered robust in the post-quantum era.
Photo Credit: rawpixel
The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been leading an initiative to standardize post-quantum cryptographic algorithms, and SKT and Thales have used the Crystals-Kyber one for this successful real condition trial. These post-quantum secure algorithms are being developed to withstand attacks from both classical and quantum computers.
“This collaboration between SKT and Thales highlights our commitment to staying ahead of the curve in terms of cybersecurity and ensuring the safety of our customers’ data. PQC provides enhanced security through the use of cryptographic algorithms that are thought to be secure against quantum computer attacks. Going forward, we will combine PQC SIM with our additional Quantum expertise to achieve end-to-end quantum-safe communications,” said Yu Takki, Vice President and Head of Infra Technology Office of SKT.
“As quantum computers have the potential to break certain existing cryptographic algorithms, there is an emerging need to transition to cryptographic algorithms believed to be secure against quantum attacks. For 5G networks, Thales started to invest on cryptographic algorithms that are quantum-resistant to enhance continued communications security and privacy for users,” said Eva Rudin, SVP Mobile Connectivity & Solutions at Thales.
As quantum computing gets more reliable and presumably starts getting used more widely in the future, this type of security is going to become increasingly important. Nokia recently announced it had completed a proof of concept trial alongside Greek research consortium HellasQCI, demonstrating what it calls quantum-safe connectivity infrastructure.
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Separately, SK Broadband, an internet and paid TV service affiliate of SK Telecom, launched additional personalized internet protocol television (IPTV) services utilizing AI technology to enhance its competitiveness in the country’s paid TV market, the company said Wednesday.
About SK Telecom:
SK Telecom has been leading the growth of the mobile industry since 1984. Now, it is taking customer experience to new heights by extending beyond connectivity. By placing AI at the core of its business, SK Telecom is rapidly transforming into an AI company. It is focusing on driving innovations in areas of telecommunications, media, AI, metaverse, cloud and connected intelligence to deliver greater value for both individuals and enterprises.
For more information, please contact [email protected] or visit SKT’s LinkedIn page www.linkedin.com/company/sk-telecom.
About Thales:
Thales (Euronext Paris: HO) is a global leader in advanced technologies within three domains: Defence & Security, Aeronautics & Space, and Digital Identity & Security. It develops products and solutions that help make the world safer, greener and more inclusive.
References:
https://www.newswire.co.kr/newsRead.php?no=981374
https://www.telecoms.com/5g-6g/sk-telecom-and-thales-trial-quantum-resistant-cryptography-for-5g-sa
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/tech/2023/12/133_365470.html
SKT Develops Technology for Integration of Heterogeneous Quantum Cryptography Communication Networks
SK Telecom and Deutsche Telekom to Jointly Develop Telco-specific Large Language Models (LLMs)
Daryl Schoolar: 5G mmWave still in the doldrums!
In November Recon Analytics completed a survey of 100 communication service providers (CSP) as part of its “Global Communication Service Provider Pulse” research practice. The survey included questions around the current state of their 5G networks, and their thoughts on 5G Advanced and 6G. Three of those questions are as follows:
- What has been the biggest benefit of deploying 5G?
- In the next phase of 5G’s development, also known as 5G-Advanced, several technological enhancements are under study or being developed. From the list below, which three possible 5G-Advanced technology areas do you think are the most important?
- What are the most important technology areas that you think 6G should focus on?
The most common answers to all three of those questions had to do with increasing network capacity and gaining access to new spectrum. And this is where having lots of water but nothing to drink comes into play. There are mobile operators today who already have large swaths of fallow spectrum in the form of mmWave.
mmWave [1.] provides mobile operators with thousands of megahertz of new capacity, but the majority of 5G operators (with the exception of Verizon) have not started to use it. The limited deployment reflects the coverage and in-building penetration challenges that come with mmWave. Our survey findings underscore this reality. Recon asked mobile operators who currently have a commercial 5G network if they were using mmWave spectrum, below are the responses we got back.
Note 1. 5G mmWave is a set of 5G frequencies that can provide ultra-fast speeds over short distances. It operates on wavelengths between 30 GHz and 300 GHz, which is higher than 4G LTE’s wavelengths of under 6 GHz.
Of the 100 operators we surveyed 66% have a commercial 5G network. Of that group, 35% say they have deployed 5G for mmWave. 44% of the respondents have mmWave spectrum but are either focused on building their network in other spectrum bands, or don’t currently see a commercial reason to use mmWave. The ongoing underutilization of 5G mmWave seems to be impacting the current outlook for future 6G spectrum as well.
When asking mobile network operators about what they thought were the most important areas 6G should focus on, the most common answer given was more capacity through new spectrum. Originally, industry discussions on new 6G spectrum bands were focused on terahertz, which would be even more challenging to work with than mmWave. In the last year there has been a shift. 6G spectrum discussions have moved to the possibility of using bands in the 7 GHz to 24 GHz range. While these bands still have their difficulties when it comes to coverage and in-door penetration, they are not as problematic as terahertz or in many cases mmWave. However, this change in thinking around 6G spectrum does not change the challenges mobile operators must deal with today when it comes to mmWave.
That is where companies like Pivotal Commware and ZTE can be of assistance. Pivotal Commware has pioneered 5G mmWave repeaters that allow a mobile network operator to improve signal range and coverage at a fraction of the cost of an additional mmWave radio. This helps to improve the economics of using mmWave for 5G. Verizon has publicly acknowledged that it is working with the vendor in the U.S. In Asia, ZTE has been working on a solution of its own to overcome line of sight issues with mmWave that it calls RIS 2.0. AIS (Thailand) has trialed RIS 2.0.
Mobile operators’ desire for more capacity is not going away, especially with the emergence of fixed wireless access. The challenge is finding new ways to meet those capacity needs. Operators can continue to milk lower bands and squeeze capacity improvements out of them, but that will only take them so far. mmWave and other higher spectrum bands are well suited to meet growing capacity requirements, but it will require the development of repeaters and reflective services to make those higher bands easier to use for 5G and eventually 6G. It doesn’t help operators to be surrounded by a spectrum they cannot effectively employ, like sailors at sea with no drinkable water in sight.
Daryl Schoolar is a director and analyst at Recon Analytics where he focuses on telecommunication service providers and companies that provide networking communication solutions to those service providers. Some of the topics he covers are digital transformation, 5G, 6G, cloud networking, and telecom service strategies.
UAE network operator “etisalat by e&” achieves 5G mmWave distance milestone
Saudi Arabia’s Stc Achieves 10 Gbps Speeds in 5G mmWave Trials
Verizon Point-To-Multipoint network architecture using mmWave Spectrum
Ericsson and O2 Telefónica demo Europe’s 1st Cloud RAN 5G mmWave FWA use case
Nokia achieves extended range mmWave 5G speed record in Finland
Samsung achieves record speeds over 10km 5G mmWave FWA trial in Australia
Broadband Forum SDN/NFV Work Area launches four new projects at Bangkok Q4-2023 meeting
Introduction:
The Broadband Forum says their open standards and open broadband projects continue to deliver vital importance to companies, both small and large, as we focus on the latest industry trends, and extract most value to consumers, and transition to services-led broadband.
Progress on cloud based SDN/NFV was one of many accomplishments at this December’s meeting in Bangkok, Thailand. SDN and NFV are both software components, but they are different. SDN virtualizes the management of networks, while NFV converts network processes into software applications. SDN separates the data and control planes, allowing operators to manage features from a centralized location. NFV virtualizes network infrastructure, separating functions that typically run in hardware and implementing them as software. We believe the Forum’s SDN/NFV activity is very important as neither SDN or NFV have lived up to their potential and promise, primarily because they were premises based, rather than implemented in the cloud.
From a business perspective, the migration to SDN and NFV in the broadband network facilitates agile deployment of new customized distributed broadband services and applications. This enables new revenues and provider differentiation while managing Capex and OpEx both in the access network and in single and multi-tenant residential and business locations by implementing an agile network and enabling autonomous and automated operations.
Project Scope: Includes migration to and deployment of SDN/NFV-enabled implementations across all aspects of the broadband network. The scopes are:
- the definition of a new cloud-based environment with its related requirements, called Cloud-based Central Office (CloudCO)
- the architectural requirements, the interface specification among all the components with their related data models including the control-user plane separation interface for disaggregated access nodes
- the specification of virtual network functions and interface with their related data models
- the definition of requirements, interfaces and data models for autonomous and automated networks
Target: Define the Cloud-based Central Office (CloudCO) architecture using SDN, NFV, and cloud technologies to support network functions fundamentally redefining the architecture of access and aggregation networks. Support the migration of SDN and NFV into all aspects of broadband networks, facilitating the agile deployment of new distributed broadband services and applications for operators with greater operational efficiency and lower cost.
Progress: The SDN/NFV Work Area continues to progress the CloudCO project for virtualized network functions, SDN management and control and domain orchestration capabilities in a broadband network. The main activities currently ongoing are related to the disaggregation of the Access Node and defining the related interfaces. The Cloud Component Project Stream is continuing work on Automated Intelligence Management (AIM), Smart SD-WAN and virtual OMCI.
Three key documents near completion. TR-486 is set to be published in December 2023, WT-477 moves to Final Ballot, and WT-386 Issue 2 is currently resolving Straw Ballot comments.
Outcomes:
A productive quarterly meeting for the SDN/NFV Work Area saw four new projects approved. This was WT-403 Amendment 1 ‘PON Abstraction Interface for Time-Critical Applications’, WT-384 Issue 2 ‘CloudCO 2.0’, WT-436 Issue 2 ‘AIM Framework and Architecture’, and a project on Broadband Network Data Collection (BNDC).
A new Open Broadband proposal on CloudCO App SDK was presented to the Broadband Forum Board of Directors.
WT-477 on access node disaggregation has finished Straw Ballot review for both the baseline document and data model. The project has been approved to move to Final Ballot.
WT-413 Issue 2 on ‘SDN Management and Control Interfaces for CloudCO Network Functions’ is progressing. Previously, the SDN/NFV and Common YANG Work Areas reviewed the approach and agreed to report a detailed list of data models, so that vendors can rapidly discover the data models to be implemented for each access network function. The group will discuss the scope regarding the addition of ONU (Optical Network Unit) management and BAA chapter update before the Spring 2024 Meeting. The document is expected to enter Straw Ballot review once WT-477 and WT-486 are completed.
On the Artificial Intelligence and automation fronts, WT-486, which specifies the interfaces for the Automated Intelligence Management (AIM) framework specified in TR-436, has completed Final Ballot and will be published in December 2023. An AIM Tiger Team has completed gap analysis in WT-436 Issue 2 and WT-486 Issue 2. The Tiger Team discussed the Broadband Network Data Collection new project proposal and received approval from the group.
Straw Ballot comment resolution has been completed and WT-386i2 on Fixed Access Network Sharing.
A Tiger Team has been established to review the document on CloudCO interfaces (WT-411i2/WT-454i2) to include the Access SDN Management and Control northbound interface intent-based interactions addressing access network topology and abstraction, including inventory. An update was presented on the discussions held on the data models. The Metamodel needs further review and will be discussed in future weekly meetings.
Together with the Common YANG, the group held a joint session to discuss a new project for BAA – Access Device Abstraction Manager (BAA-ADAM). The groups will continue the discussions offline to clarify the scope and impact on CloudCO interfaces.
The group took part in this year’s CloudCO Demo at Network X in October. Key projects were involved in the demo, including WT-477 reference Disaggregated – Optical Line Terminal (D-OLT) Virtual Network Function, Northbound interface exposure of a L2-L3 network abstraction, Optical Network Terminal (ONT) telemetry over virtualized ONU Management and Control Interface (vOMCI), automation test-suite for OB-BAA, IPFIX adapter framework, and vOMCI Plugfest delta features.
References:
Shaping the future of Broadband – Broadband Forum (broadband-forum.org)
More information about the SDN/NFV Work Area can be found at: https://wiki.broadband-forum.org/display/BBF/SDN+and+NFV.
WRC-23 concludes with decisions on low-band/mid-band spectrum and 6G (?)
The World Radiocommunication Conference 2023 (WRC-23) [1.] in Dubai, UAE ended on Friday. Regulators agreed on new mobile low-band spectrum (below 1 GHz) and mid-band spectrum in the 3.5 GHz and 6 GHz ranges. They also discussed 6G (which is an oxymoron to this author since the many problems we’ve identified with 5G have not been resolved).
Note 1. WRC’s are held every four years under the auspices of the International Telecommunication Union Radio communications sector (ITU-R). They are intended to harmonize spectrum usage across the world so that network operators, equipment vendors and others can avoid international fragmentation and leverage global economies of scale.
“WRC-23 has provided a clear roadmap for mobile services to continue to evolve and expand for the benefit of billions across the globe,” said John Giusti, Chief Regulatory Officer at the GSMA. “The GSMA believes that no-one should be left behind in the digital age and the decisions of WRC-23 will allow us to deliver a brighter future where mobile brings communities together, delivers industrial agility and provides economic growth. Implementation of the WRC-23 decisions will support global digital ambitions, deliver greater digital equality and unlock the full power of connectivity.”
The detailed WRC-23 provisional final acts may be read here.
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Final harmonization of the 3.5 GHz band (3.3-3.8 GHz) – the pioneer 5G band – was achieved across Europe, the Middle East and Africa (EMEA) as well as throughout the Americas.
A new band – the 6 GHz band (6.425-7.125 GHz) – was identified for mobile in every ITU Region – EMEA, the Americas and the Asia Pacific. Countries representing more than 60% of the world’s population asked to be included in the identification of this band for licensed mobile at WRC-23. The 6 GHz spectrum is now the harmonized home for the expansion of mobile capacity for 5G-Advanced and beyond.
“The 6GHz band is the only remaining mid-band spectrum currently available to respond to the data traffic growth in the 5G-Advanced era,” GSMA said in a statement. As the primary international organization representing the 5G industry, it has been pushing for 5G operations in the 6GHz band. “The WRC-23 decision to harmonize the 6GHz band … is a pivotal milestone, bringing a population of billions of people into a harmonized 6GHz mobile footprint. It also serves as a critical developmental trigger for manufacturers of the 6GHz equipment ecosystem,” GSMA said.
ITU-APT Foundation of India said the agreement also opens the path for opening the lower 6 GHz band from 5925-6425 MHz for unlicensed usage to promote innovation in the country.
However, the 6 GHz band approval at WRC-23 may not affect the U.S. market. U.S. regulators at the FCC in 2020 reserved the entire 6GHz band for Wi-Fi and other unlicensed operations, over the objections of the 5G industry.
“If the United States doesn’t present alternative frequency ranges for 5G services that can be internationally harmonized, 5G operations in the 6GHz band could be adopted in more regions. This would allow Chinese equipment to proliferate in regions where the plan is adopted, setting back efforts to make Wi-Fi 6 in the band an international standard,” warned Jeffrey Westling, director of technology and innovation policy at the American Action Forum US nonprofit, in a post published prior to the start of WRC-23.
Jessica Rosenworcel, chairwoman of the FCC, approved the WRC-23’s work. “The WRC was not just weeks of work in Dubai, but also years of preparation by the FCC, experts across the government, and our telecommunications industry,” she said in a statement. “The delegation’s accomplishments will promote innovation in unlicensed spectrum including Wi-Fi, support 5G connectivity, pave the way for 6G, and bolster U.S. leadership in the growing space economy. We now look forward to getting to work on preparations for WRC-27.”
“Thank you to Deputy Assistant Secretary Steve Lang for his able leadership and to the FCC staff along with the entire U.S. delegation for their exceptional and tireless efforts at WRC-23,” said FCC Commissioner Anna M. Gomez in a statement. “WRC-23 was the culmination of years of collaboration and hard work between our strong interagency team, the telecommunications industry, and our regional and international partners. The delegation’s accomplishments on terrestrial licensed and unlicensed spectrum as well as space allocations will advance science and economic prosperity worldwide.”
The U.S. Department of State also issued a media note on the delegation’s work at WRC-23 here.
The Wi-Fi Alliance, a U.S. trade group designed to promote the technology in unlicensed bands, also cheered the new 6GHz decision at the WRC-23. The association supported the FCC’s decision to allocate the entire 6GHz band for unlicensed operations.
“The conference adopted an international treaty provision to explicitly recognize that this spectrum is used by wireless access systems such as Wi-Fi,” the Wi-Fi Alliance said in a statement about the WRC-23 decision on 6GHz. The Wi-Fi Alliance noted that WRC-23 identified the 6GHz band for licensed operations in Europe, Africa and a few other countries, but not globally.
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WRC-23 also set out a path towards greater digital equality by defining mobile use of more low-band spectrum in the 470-694 MHz band in EMEA. Low bands can help expand capacity for the internet connectivity of rural communities as their signals reach over wide areas. WRC-23’s new low-band mobile allocations will be an important tool to break down the barriers towards digital equality in the EMEA region and lower the urban/rural connectivity divide.
“Over half the world is connected to the mobile internet today,” said Luciana Camargos, Head of Spectrum at the GSMA. “But, as mobile connectivity develops, we need to ensure that we can deliver services for everyone. The great legacy of WRC-23 will be in allowing us to do so sustainably, affordably and in a way that delivers for the whole planet. We cannot stop here – WRC-23 is only the starting gun and now governments will need to act on its decisions, enabling new mobile technologies that embrace sustainability and unleashing the full potential of mobile to deliver a better tomorrow for our planet.”
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WRC-23 attendees also moved forward on the topic of 6G. Prior to the start of the three week conference in Dubai, the ITU adopted a resolution intended to guide the development of a 6G standard. During the conference, regulators agreed to study the 7-8.5GHz band for 6G in time for the next ITU conference in 2027. That spectrum band aligns with proposals from Ericsson and others for early 6G operations to sit between 7 GHz and 20 GHz.
“This global agreement [on the 7-8.5GHz band] ensures the ongoing growth of 5G around the world and paves the way for 6G from 2030 onwards,” wrote the Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA) in a statement. “Technical work now starts to determine the sharing and compatibility of 6G with incumbent uses of the identified spectrum.”
Joe Barrett, President of GSA, commented: “The global agreement reached by ITU represents a significant milestone not just in the continued growth of 5G and 5G-Advanced connectivity, but also in the path to 6G. The entire global mobile ecosystem can now innovate with confidence and a clear sense of the spectrum requirements for 6G, both in terms of its future availability and compatibility with other users of the spectrum. At GSA we appreciate the hard work and diligence of ITU and its members that has gone into reaching this welcome global agreement at WRC-23. GSA’s Spectrum Group will continue to contribute studies and technical analysis to international, regional and individual country policymakers and regulators to facilitate the timely availability of spectrum for use by mobile network operators. As an industry, we now look forward to continued 5G growth, 6G innovation and the socio-economic benefits mobile connectivity brings globally.”
Like this author, the Financial Times is not enthusiastic about 6G:
“CB Insights shows that mentions of 5G during earnings calls peaked in 2021 and have since fallen. Network operator capital spending growth is expected to dip next year. Operators want to see better returns on their investment in 5G before they contemplate further network upgrades.”
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References:
https://www.itu.int/dms_pub/itu-r/opb/act/R-ACT-WRC.15-2023-PDF-E.pdf
https://www.lightreading.com/6g/6ghz-satellites-and-6g-addressed-at-wrc-23#close-modal
https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-399175A1.pdf
https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-399195A1.pdf
GSA welcomes agreement on future of 5G and 6G spectrum at WRC-23
https://www.ft.com/content/e59a4818-c630-4dac-9c36-477a0c99a9cd
Highlights of LightCounting’s December 2023 Quarterly Market Update on Optical Networking
LightCounting’s Quarterly Market Update report [1.] for Q3 2023 revealed that the optical communications industry financial results were disappointing.
Every financial market indicator that the market research firm tracks – ICP (Integrated Communications Provider) and CSP (Communications Service Provider) capex, datacom and networking equipment, and semiconductor (x-Nvidia) and optical components sales – all had negative growth compared to Q3 2022.
Note 1. LightCounting’s Quarter Market Update reports are designed to provide an easy-to-digest snapshot of optical transceiver growth trends, backed up by detailed quarter-by-quarter sales data collected via LightCounting’s proprietary vendor survey. Performance metrics and commentary for top-tier telecom and internet service providers, network and datacom equipment makers, and optical component and semiconductor vendors are also included to provide an understanding of what drives sales trends at the transceiver level.
- Alphabet and Microsoft had record capital expenditures.
- Arista, Broadcom, Calix, Innolight, and Nvidia all reported record revenues.
LightCounting is projecting, based on its current analysis, that sales increased in Q3 and will increase further in Q4, to a new record high, as shown in the figure below. This data includes estimates for 400G and 800G transceivers manufactured by Nvidia internally.
The expectation of growth in Q4 carries over to 2024 as well and is consistent with the guidance given by several companies ranging from Alphabet and Amazon to Coherent and Lumentum. The big caveat is that growth in 2024 will be tightly focused on AI-related infrastructure, and growth in demand for those products is expected to far outstrip demand in other segments like traditional telco and enterprise networks. Most of the growth in the optical components and modules market will come from sales of 800G transceivers.
References:
https://www.lightcounting.com/report/december-2023-quarterly-market-update-199
LightCounting: Will Network Transformation resolve telecom’s paradox?
Industry Analysts: Important Optical Networking Trends for 2023
MTN Group and NEC XON deploy Africa’s first 400G optical transponder using TIP’s Phoenix
Deutsche Telekom Network Day: Fiber, Mobile Network, Open RAN and 5G SA Launch in 2024
2023 Deutsche Telekom (DT) Highlights:
- Fiber offensive: more than 2.5 million new fiber connections made possible in 2023, reaching a total of more than ten million fiber households in 2024
- 5G front-runner: 5G population coverage of 96%, 5G Standalone also for private customers in 2024
- State-of-the-art technologies: Artificial intelligence supports fiber and mobile rollout
- EURO 2024: Deutsche Telekom connects all stadiums, fan zones & team quarters, data gift for all mobile customers
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DT Network Day photo courtesy of Deutsche Telekom
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Deutsche Telekom announced that it has successfully enabled more than 2.5 million new fiber connections this year, thereby realizing its fiber plant expansion target. The company invested EUR 2.5 billion in fiber expansion, expanding coverage in almost 3,500 towns and municipalities. According to the announcement, the company projects a total investment of EUR 30 billion in the fiber optic rollout by 2030.
Its Fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) network is set to reach eight million households by the end of the year, with plans to extend this to ten million fiber optic connections by 2024.
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In mobile, Deutsche Telekom currently provides 5G coverage to 96 percent of the population, serving 80 million people through a network of over 80,000 5G antennas, including 10,000 in the 3.5 GHz band spread across more than 800 cities and municipalities. The network delivers download speeds of up to 1 Gbps.
The company aims to achieve 99 percent 5G coverage for the German population by 2025 and plans to launch 5G Standalone (SA) core network for private customers in 2024. DT indicates that 10,000 antennas are compatible with 5G SA in the 3.6 GHz band, covering more than 800 cities and municipalities. This is up from 9,700 antennas in August 2023.
Deutsche Telekom’s business customers are already using 5G SA technology with functions such as network slicing. For example, for live TV transmission of media or in 5G campus networks for industry and research. “In the coming year, 5G SA should then offer all customers real added value,” DT said.
Meanwhile, rival operators Telefónica Deutschland (O2 Germany) and Vodafone Germany already offer standalone 5G services.
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DT began the deployment of its open radio access network (O-RAN) in Germany in December, in collaboration with Nokia and Fujitsu. The first O-RAN commercial deployment will be in Neubrandenburg. Nokia and Fujitsu are supplying the necessary technology components.
“Open RAN increases the choice of manufacturers and therefore our flexibility. The open access network enables more automation. And makes our networks even more resilient. This benefits the people that our mobile network connects,” says Claudia Nemat.
The German telco expects to have 3,000 O-RAN compatible antennas by the end of 2026.
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Deutsche Telekom also says it’s using Artificial Intelligence (AI) in network expansion and mobile communications. AI aids in analyzing and evaluating cell usage and capacity utilization, with the ongoing development of a large language model for telco-specific applications in collaboration with SK Telekom. Additionally, AI contributes to enhanced network security through automated pattern recognition, according to the company.
References:
https://www.telekom.com/en/media/media-information/archive/telekom-network-day-2023-1055364
https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/deutsche-telekom-plans-5g-standalone-launch-2024