Nokia will manufacture broadband network electronics in U.S. for BEAD program
Nokia has become the first telecom company to announce the manufacturing of fiber-optic broadband network electronics products and optical modules in the U.S. for use in the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program.
Using thin strands of glass to transmit data with light, fiber-optic networks have become the backbone of today’s digital economy and are used to connect everything to fast, reliable gigabit data services. Seventy percent of fiber broadband lines in North America are powered by Nokia. Now, partnering with Sanmina Corporation, Nokia will manufacture in the U.S. several fiber-optic broadband products at Sanmina’s state-of-the-art manufacturing facility located in Pleasant Prairie, Kenosha County, Wisconsin, bringing up to 200 new jobs to the state.
By manufacturing fiber-optic technology in the U.S., Nokia will be able to supply its products and services to critical projects like BEAD that are focused on narrowing the digital divide, helping to further contribute to the nation’s economic growth and job creation. Having access to technology that is built in the U.S. is an important requirement for states and infrastructure players seeking to participate in BEAD and the $42.45bn of available funding allocated for broadband rollouts to unserved and underserved communities.
Pekka Lundmark, President and CEO of Nokia, said: “At Nokia, we create technology that helps the world act together. We are committed to connecting people and communities. However, many Americans still lack adequate connectivity, leaving them at a disadvantage when it comes to accessing work, education and healthcare. Programs like BEAD can change this. By bringing the manufacturing of our fiber-optic broadband access products to the U.S., BEAD participants will be able to work with us to bridge the digital divide. We look forward to bringing more Americans online.”
Vice President of the United States, Kamala Harris, said: “President Biden and I are delivering on our promise to strengthen our economy by investing in working people, expanding domestic manufacturing, empowering small business owners, and rebuilding our nation’s infrastructure—today’s announcement is a direct result of this work. Our investments in broadband infrastructure are creating jobs in Wisconsin and across the nation, and increasing access to reliable, high-speed internet so everyone in America has the tools they need to thrive in the 21st century.”
U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, said: “President Biden promised to bring high-speed internet to every corner of America, and to do it with American workers and American-made equipment. This announcement is proof that he’s delivering on that promise. When we invest in American manufacturing and American jobs, there’s no limit to what we can achieve. Thanks to the President’s leadership, we’re going to connect everyone in America and create a strong and equitable economy that’s built for the future.”
Jure Sola, Chairman and CEO of Sanmina, said: “Sanmina has been manufacturing in the U.S. for more than forty years and we are excited to partner with Nokia to support their efforts to build robust and resilient high-tech fiber broadband networks that will connect people and societies. By continuing to invest in domestic manufacturing, Nokia and Sanmina will be able to help create a sustainable future for the industry, one that drives job growth and ensures the fiber products produced embody the quality and excellence associated with American manufacturing.”
Nokia fiber-optic broadband products manufactured in the U.S. will include:
- Optical Line Termination card for a modular Access Node
- A small form factor OLT
- OLT optical modules
- An “outdoor-hardened” Optical Network Terminal (ONT)
Resources and additional information
- Seven out of ten fiber broadband connections in North America are made through Nokia equipment.
- Nokia is the top supplier of fiber-optic broadband technology for service providers in the U.S.
- Nokia is the number one vendor for XGS-PON technology globally and in the U.S. market. XGS-PON can deliver up to 10 Gbps (Gigabits-per-second) broadband speeds to end-users. With 10 Gbps, you can download a 4K movie in less than 30 seconds or stream around 1,700 movies simultaneously.
- Nokia was the first to deploy 1, 10 and 25 Gigabit fiber-optic broadband networks in the U.S. with the Electric Power Board (EPB) in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
- Website: More about funding opportunities and Nokia broadband solutions
- Infograph: Why Fiber Broadband is Essential
- Article: U.S. Broadband Infrastructure Funding explained
- Video: Explaining the limitless speeds for fiber broadband
- https://www.nokia.com/about-us/news/releases/2023/08/03/nokia-first-to-announce-manufacturing-of-broadband-network-electronics-products-for-bead-program-in-us/
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August 16, 2023 Addendum:
Nokia announced today its partnership with Fabrinet to become the first telecom vendor to manufacture fiber broadband optical modules in the U.S. for use in the Broadband Equity, Access and Deployment (BEAD) program.
Starting in 2024, Nokia’s next generation, multi-rate optical modules for Optical Line Terminals (OLTs) will be produced at Fabrinet’s state-of-the- art manufacturing facility located in Santa Clara, California, bringing high-tech innovation and additional jobs to the country.
This news builds on Nokia’s recent announcement that they will produce fiber-optic broadband network electronic products in Kenosha, Wisconsin – expanding Nokia’s list of products and solutions for networks rollouts using BEAD or other funding to help bridge the digital divide.
Dell’Oro: Broadband Equipment Spending to exceed $120B from 2022 to 2027
Dell’Oro Group predicts the broadband equipment market will surpass $120 billion in cumulative spending between 2022 and 2027. The market research firm says sales of PON equipment for fiber-to-the-home deployments, cable broadband access equipment, and fixed wireless CPE will show a 0.2% Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2027. Service providers continue to expand their fiber and DOCSIS 3.1/4.0 networks, while also increasing the reliability and sustainability of their broadband access networks.
“After three consecutive years of tremendous broadband network expansions and upgrades, 2023 is expected to show a return to normalized levels of spending,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President of Broadband Access and Home Networking research at Dell’Oro Group. “After 2023, spending is expected to increase through 2026 and 2027, driven by 25 Gbps and 50 Gbps PON, Fixed Wireless CPE, as well as DAA and DOCSIS 4.0 deployments.”
Labor markets are “still being challenged” and a number of fiber based network operators (AT&T, Altice USA, Frontier) have reduced their expansion plans and homes passed targets. “To close out 2022 we did see a significant uptake in equipment purchases, and what happened there was supply chains appeased. A lot of orders that had been on the books for a long time have been fulfilled.”
Network equipment vendors are working through that inventory they had built up while taking on “additional equipment purchases.
Additional highlights from the Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year July 2023 Forecast Report:
- PON equipment revenue is expected to grow from $11.8 B in 2022 to $13.3 B in 2027, driven largely by XGS-PON deployments in North America, EMEA, and CALA.
- Revenue for Cable Distributed Access Equipment (Virtual CCAP, Remote PHY Devices, Remote MACPHY Devices, and Remote OLTs) is expected to reach $1.6 B by 2027, as operators ramp their DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber deployments.
- Revenue for Fixed Wireless CPE is expected to reach $2.7 B by 2027, led by shipments of 5G sub-6GHz and 5G Millimeter Wave units.
- Revenue for Residential Wi-Fi Routers will surpass $5.2 B in 2027, owing to massive shipments of Wi-Fi 7 units.
“Which isn’t going to float to manufacturers until you know, late 2024, really into 2025,” he said. “I think in the interim, XGS-PON in the European market is certainly going to catch up. We’re also seeing considerable growth in XGS-PON deployments now in China.”
In Dell’Oro’s five-year forecast published in January, Heynen expected fixed wireless subscriber growth, particularly in North America, would “start to moderate” beginning in 2024, due to factors like “capacity issues and fiber expansion.”
Heynen has increased his revenue predictions for the fixed wireless CPE market – which he previously tipped would hit $2.2 billion in five years – and now predicts subscriber growth to continue into 2025.
“Part of that is because of the net reduction in homes passed for fiber,” he said. “In the meantime, fixed wireless will be able to cover more ground while the operators who are building out fiber kind of extend their overall deployment plans.”
Further, operators like T-Mobile and Verizon “are seeing fixed wireless as a way to secure broadband subscribers away from cable operators. The U.S. market is really dynamic in terms of how services can be marketed.”
The Dell’Oro Group Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year Forecast Report provides a complete overview of the Broadband Access market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and port/unit shipments for PON, Cable, Fixed Wireless, and DSL equipment. Covered equipment includes Converged Cable Access Platforms (CCAP), Distributed Access Architectures (DAA), DSL Access Multiplexers (DSLAMs), PON Optical Line Terminals (OLTs), Customer Premises Equipment ([CPE] for Cable, DSL, PON, Fixed Wireless), along with Residential WLAN Equipment, including Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 7 Gateways and Routers. For more information about the report, please contact [email protected].
Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, security, enterprise networks, data center infrastructure markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions. For more information, contact Dell’Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit www.delloro.com.
References:
https://www.fiercetelecom.com/telecom/broadband-equipment-market-eclipse-120b-2027-delloro
Dell’Oro: XGS, 25G, and Early 50G PON Rollouts to Fuel Broadband Spending
Dell’Oro: Bright Future for Campus Network As A Service (NaaS) and Public Cloud Managed LAN
Dell’Oro: FWA revenues on track to advance 35% in 2022 led by North America
Dell’Oro: PONs boost Broadband Access; Total Telecom & Enterprise Network Equipment Markets
Dell’Oro: U.S. suppliers ~20% of global telecom equipment market; struggling in RAN business
Futuriom and Dell’Oro weigh in on SD-WAN and SASE market: single vendor solutions prevail
Openreach deploys Adtran’s FSP 3000 open optical transport system
Adtran today announced that Openreach, the UK’s largest wholesale broadband network, has deployed its FSP 3000 open optical transport technology to enable its new Optical Spectrum Access 100G Single enterprise service.
Openreach’s new product offers a dedicated fiber link that empowers more UK businesses to harness point-to-point 100Gbit/s data transport. The solution also brings efficiency benefits that reduce capital and operational expenditure. The latest collaboration builds on more than a decade of successful partnership between Adtran and Openreach.
“Corporate cloud applications and other data-intensive tasks such as data center backhaul are fueling a growing demand for bandwidth. Adtran’s scalable optical technology enables us to offer a managed, high-speed service that satisfies that demand at a highly competitive price point,” said Simon Williams, head of optical products at Openreach.
“With no filters or amplifiers required, our Optical Spectrum Access 100G Single service offers secure and always-on optical services that can transport enormous amounts of data. We’re also making dedicated, uncomplicated and customizable access available in a slimmed-down package that’s even easier to manage.”
Adtran’s FSP 3000 technology is helping Openreach deliver managed 100G connectivity to UK businesses. (Photo: Business Wire)
Openreach’s Optical Spectrum Access 100G Single offers a choice of point-to-point Ethernet links at 100Gbit/s or 10 separate channels at 10Gbit/s. Built on Adtran’s scalable, open FSP 3000 optical transport technology, the service empowers Openreach to meet the growing demand for data-intensive cloud-based applications. Engineered for operational simplicity, Adtran’s compact and highly efficient FSP 3000 platform offers a dedicated fiber link ensuring low latency, consistent service quality and unparalleled network reliability for Openreach’s customers.
“Our FSP 3000 technology gives Openreach a powerful optical transport solution that efficiently delivers high-bandwidth services for enterprise customers. Using the Optical Spectrum Access 100G Single service, businesses can now smoothly manage substantial data transfers, even during peak operational hours,” commented Stuart Broome, GM of EMEA sales at Adtran. “We have a great track record of partnering with Openreach to advance digital transformation across the UK. It’s a relationship based on trust and a shared dedication to deliver for customers. Together, we’re providing extra capacity and value for more businesses.”
About Adtran:
ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: ADTN and FSE: QH9) is the parent company of Adtran, Inc., a leading global provider of open, disaggregated networking and communications solutions that enable voice, data, video and internet communications across any network infrastructure. From the cloud edge to the subscriber edge, Adtran empowers communications service providers around the world to manage and scale services that connect people, places and things. Adtran solutions are used by service providers, private enterprises, government organizations and millions of individual users worldwide. ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. is also the largest shareholder of Adtran Networks SE, formerly ADVA Optical Networking SE. Find more at Adtran, LinkedIn and Twitter.
References:
BT’s CEO: Openreach Fiber Network is an “unstoppable machine” reaching 9.6M UK premises now; 25M by end of 2026
Adtran showcases coherent innovation at OFC 2023: FSP 3000 open line system & coherent 100ZR
Openreach on benefit of FTTP in UK; Full Fiber rollouts increasing
Analysts: Combined ADTRAN & ADVA will be a “niche player”
UScellular’s Home Internet/FWA now has >100K customers
UScellular now has more than 100,000 Home Internet/Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) customers and it anticipates even more growth over the coming years.
In 2022, fixed wireless services accounted for 90% of home broadband net additions, according to Leichtman Research Group. In the U.S., Verizon is by far the leader in 4G/5G FWA ending 2022 with 1.452 million fixed wireless home internet customers. The telco added 384K, 393K, 379K, and 342K in the last four quarters. It now has 2.229 million FWA internet subscribers.
In a press release on Tuesday, UScellular Chief Marketing Officer Eric Jagher said they knew rural areas in particular would see great benefit from having a FWA solution.
“We continue to enhance our Home Internet experience for customers, and the growth and positive response we’ve received to this service has us excited for the future. As we celebrate this milestone, we look forward to further updating the service so we can soon surpass hundreds of thousands of Home Internet customers,” Jagher stated.
As UScellular continues to build out its 5G mid-band network, more customers will be able to realize the fast, dependable connectivity that Home Internet provides. Earlier this year, UScellular launched its 5G mid-band network in parts of 10 states and expects to cover 1 million households by the end of the year and 3 million households by the end of 2024. This network can deliver speeds up to 10x faster than its 4G LTE network and low-band 5G.
UScellular initially offered Home Internet on its 4G LTE network and has upgraded the service with low-band, mid-band and mmWave 5G in select markets across the country. Most customers today can access 5G speeds on the service, which has led to a doubling of the customer base over the last 18 months. The company currently offers self-install, plug-and-play internal antennas and routers and a professionally installed external antenna in certain areas. Later this year, the company expects to have additional self-install options available to help meet the evolving needs of customers.
Additionally, UScellular offers a free Internet Setup Coach for all new customers. Experts from Asurion are available via phone to help customers with router placement for the best speeds and getting all essential devices – like computers, TVs and doorbells – connected to their home’s Wi-Fi network.
As UScellular looks to further enhance and expand its Home Internet service especially in rural areas, funding from the National Telecommunications and Information Administration’s Broadband Equity Access and Deployment (BEAD) program will be important. Fixed wireless technology will likely be the best and most affordable option in many under- and un-served areas to help bridge the digital divide in the United States.
Indeed, UScellular has made it clear that it wants to use funds from the BEAD program to build more towers and serve more rural areas with FWA while increasing its 5G mobile coverage.
The telco this week reiterated the importance of that BEAD funding. “Fixed wireless technology will likely be the best and most affordable option in many under- and un-served areas to help bridge the digital divide in the United States,” the company stated.
About UScellular:
UScellular is the fourth-largest full-service wireless carrier in the United States, providing national network coverage and industry-leading innovations designed to help customers stay connected to the things that matter most. The Chicago-based carrier provides a strong, reliable network supported by the latest technology and offers a wide range of communication services that enhance consumers’ lives, increase the competitiveness of local businesses and improve the efficiency of government operations. Through its After School Access Project, the company has pledged to provide hotspots and service to help up to 50,000 youth connect to reliable internet. Additionally, UScellular has price protected all of its plans, promising not to increase prices through at least the end of 2024. To learn more about UScellular, visit one of its retail stores or www.uscellular.com. To get the latest news, visit newsroom.uscellular.com.
References:
For more information about UScellular’s efforts:
https://newsroom.uscellular.com/connecting-us/
https://www.fiercewireless.com/5g/uscellular-marks-100000-fwa-customers
UScellular Launches 5G Mid-Band Network in parts of 10 states
US Cellular touts 5G millimeter wave and cell tower agreement with Dish Network
GSA 5G SA Core Network Update Report
GSA is tracking the emergence of the 5G SA core network, including the availability of chipsets and devices for customers, plus the testing and deployment of 5G SA networks by public mobile network operators as well as private network operators.
5G SA networks can be deployed in a variety of scenarios: as an overlay for a public 5G non-SA network, as a greenfield 5G deployment for a public network operator without a separate LTE network, or as a private network deployment for an enterprise, utility, education, government or other organization requiring its own private campus network.
GSA has identified 115 operators in 52 countries and territories worldwide that have been investing (?) in public 5G SA networks in the form of trials, planned or actual deployments (see Figure 1.). This equates to 21.4% of the 535 operators known to be investing in 5G licenses, trials or deployments of any type.
At least 36 operators in 25 countries and territories are now understood to have launched or deployed public 5G SA networks, two of which have only soft-launched their 5G SA networks.
NOTE: Incredibly, that’s a DECREASE from GSA’s June 5G SA report which stated “GSA has catalogued 41 operators as having deployed or launched 5G standalone (SA) in public networks.”
Also, 19 cellular network operators have been catalogued as deploying or piloting 5G SA for public networks, and 29 as planning to deploy or evaluating, testing or trialing the technology.
Several organizations are testing, piloting or deploying 5G SA technologies for private networks. As of May 2024, 66 (just over 13% of total cellular private networks) organizations are known to be working with 5G SA core networks. These organizations include manufacturers, academic institutions, commercial research institutes, construction, communications and IT services, rail and aviation industries.
The number of 5G SA devices as a percentage of all 5G devices announced has been steadily increasing. They accounted for 35.6% of 5G devices in December 2019, 49.7% in December 2020 and 54.6% in December 2021 and a large increase to 81.8% in December 2022. As of June 2023, they account for 85.8%.
Software upgrades are almost always needed to enable 5G SA capability for existing 5G devices. There is a range of form factors to cater for different users, including modules for equipment manufacturers and vendors; customer-premises equipment (CPE), routers and gateways for enterprise or industrial customers or their systems integrators; CPE for home and business broadband; phones; and battery-operated hot spots for portable services.
Smartphones make up over half (59.0%) of the announced 5G devices with stated 5G SA support (1,034 phones), followed by fixed wireless access CPE (246) and modules (220).
Spectrum Support in 5G SA Devices:
Selected sub-6 GHz frequencies are increasingly well supported in 5G SA devices. The pattern of most-supported bands in sub-6 GHz 5G SA devices largely matches the pattern for most-supported bands across all 5G devices, with C-band, 2.6 GHz, 2 GHz, 1.8 GHz and 700 MHz.
Sub-6 GHz support by band, announced 5G SA devices, most-supported bands by most devices. Support for millimeter wave is not yet common.
Chipsets are being developed to support this capability — GSA has currently only catalogued eight chipsets specifically supporting 5G SA in millimeter-wave spectrum (eight mobile processors and platforms). 320 393 397 421 449 519 739 741 743 817 846 979 1,025 1,115 1,183 1,257 1,309 1,444 1,465 n48 n25 n66 n71 n12 n2 n20 n40 n79 n38 n7 n8 n5 n3 n28 n77 n1 n41 n78 We can expect support for spectrum bands above 6 GHz to increase in the future, as these bands are being promoted as an option for deployment of private 5G networks by regulators in various countries, as well as being promoted as capacity bands for high-traffic locations in public networks.
Summary:
The market is seeing the emergence of a strong 5G SA ecosystem with chipsets, devices of many types and users of public as well as private networks. We can expect to see the market go from strength to strength.
–>This author opines the 5G SA market is going from nowhere to no place!
As it does, GSA will continue to track its evolution and will be looking out for important new trends as they emerge.
Topics likely to become more important in the coming year in this context include 5G carrier aggregation in SA networks, ultrareliable low-latency communications (can’t be accomplished till 3GPP Release 16 URLLC in the RAN spec has been completed and performance tested) capabilities to support machine-to-machine connections in 5G SA systems, increasing support for millimeter-wave connections, network slicing in 5G networks and the introduction of VoNR in 5G SA networks.
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References:
GSM 5G-Market Snapshot Highlights – July 2023 (includes 5G SA status)
5G SA networks (real 5G) remain conspicuous by their absence
ABI Research: Expansion of 5G SA Core Networks key to 5G subscription growth
U.S. Network Operators and Equipment Companies Agree: 5G CAPEX slowing more than expected
We noted in a recent IEEE Techblog post that the 5G spending slowdown in the U.S. is broader than many analysts and executives expected. Well, it’s worse than that! The previously referenced negative comments from the CEO of Crown Castle, were corroborated by American Tower last week:
“The recent pullback was more abrupt than our initial expectations,” said Rod Smith, the CFO for cell tower firm American Tower, during his company’s quarterly conference call last week, according to Seeking Alpha. Smith was discussing the reduction in US operator spending on 5G, a situation that is now cutting $40 million out of American Tower’s margin expectations. “The initial burst of 5G activity has slowed down,” agreed the financial analysts at Raymond James in a note to investors following the release of American Tower’s earnings.
Cell tower giant SBA Communications said it too is seeing the broad pullback in spending that has affected its cell tower competitors (i.e. American Tower and Crown Castle). But the company’s management sought to reassure investors with promises of continued growth over the long term. During their earnings call, SBA executives said they expect activity to increase next year as T-Mobile looks to add 3.45GHz and C-band spectrum to its network, and as Dish Network restarts its network buildout.
The two largest 5G network equipment vendors that sell gear in the U.S. are seeing similar CAPEX cutbacks. “We see some recovery in the second half of the year but it will be slower than previously expected,” Nokia CEO Pekka Lundmark said earlier this month during his company’s quarterly conference call, in response to a question about the company’s sales in North America. His comments were transcribed by Seeking Alpha. Ericsson’s CEO, Borje Ekholm, is experiencing similar trends: “We see the buildout pace being moderated,” he said of the North American market, according to a Seeking Alpha transcript
AT&T’s CFO Pascal Desroches confirmed the #1 U.S. network operator is slowing its network spending. “We expect to move past peak capital investment levels as we exit the year,” he said during AT&T’s quarterly conference call, as per a Seeking Alpha transcript. AT&T’s overall CAPEX would be $1 billion lower in the second half of 2023 when compared with the first half of this year due to greatly reduced 5G network build-outs.
“This implies full year capex of ~$23.7 billion, which management believes is consistent with their prior full year 2023 capex guidance of ‘~$24 billion, near consistent with 2022 levels’ and includes vendor financing payments,” wrote the financial analysts at Raymond James in their assessment of AT&T’s second quarter results, citing prior AT&T guidance.
“Although management declined to guide its 2024 outlook, it has suggested that it expects capital investments to come down as it progresses past the peak of its 5G investment and deployments. We believe the trends present largely known CY23 [calendar year 2023] headwinds for direct 5G plays CommScope, Ericsson and Nokia. Opportunities from FWA [fixed wireless access] might provide modest offsets and validate Cambium’s business. AT&T’s focus on meeting its FCF [free cash flow] targets challenge all of its exposed suppliers, which also include Ciena, Infinera and Juniper,” the financial services firm added.
Verizon CEO Hans Vestberg told a Citi investor conference in January that CAPEX would drop to about $17bn in 2024, down from $22bn in 2022″ “We continue to expect 2023 capital spending to be within our guidance of $18.25 billion to $19.25 billion. Our peak capital spend is behind us, and we are now at a business-as-usual run rate for capex, which we expect will continue into 2024,” explained Verizon CFO Tony Skiadas during his company’s quarterly conference call last week, according to Seeking Alpha.
“After years of underperformance, perhaps the best argument for Verizon equity is that expectations are very low. They are coming into a phase where capex will fall now that they’ve largely completed their 5G network augmentation. Higher free cash flow will flatter valuations, but it will also, more importantly, lead to de-levering first, and potentially even to share repurchases down the road,” speculated the analysts at MoffettNathanson in a research note to investors following the release of Verizon’s earnings.
T-Mobile USA had previously said its expansive 5G build-out had achieved a high degree of scale and it would reduce its capex sharply starting in 2023.”We expect capex to taper in Q3 and then further in Q4,” said T-Mobile USA’s CFO Peter Osvaldik during his company’s quarterly conference call last week, according to Seeking Alpha. He said T-Mobile’s capex for 2023 would total just under $10 billion. T-Mobile hopes to cover around 300 million people with its 2.5GHz midband network by the end of this year. Afterward, it plans to invest in its network only in locations where such investments are necessary.
Similarly, Verizon and AT&T are completing deployments of their midband C-band 5G networks, and will slow spending after doing so. That’s even though neither telco has deployed a 5G SA core network which involves major expenses to build, operate and maintain.
Dish Network managed to meet a federal deadline to cover 70% of the U.S. population with it’s 5G OpenRAN in June. As a result, the company said it would pause its spending until next year at the earliest.
American Tower was a bit more hopeful that CAPEX would pick up in the future:
- “Moderation in carrier spend following the recent historic levels of activity we’ve seen in the industry isn’t unexpected and is consistent with past network generation investment cycles,” explained CFO Rod Smith.
- “The cycles typically progress as there’s a coverage cycle. It’s what we’ve seen in past cycles, including 3G and 4G. It’s an initial multiyear period of elevated coverage capex, and it’s tied to new G spectrum aimed at upgrading the existing infrastructure,” said American Tower’s CEO Tom Bartlett. “And then later in the cycle, it will fill back into a capacity stage where we’ll start to see more densification going on. So I’m hopeful that our investor base doesn’t get spooked by the fact that this is a pullback. It’s very consistent. The cadence is really spot on with what we’ve seen with other technologies.”
In April, Dell’Oro Group analyst Stefan Pongratz forecast global telecom capex is projected to decline at a 2% to 3% CAGR over the next 3 years, as positive growth in India will not be enough to offset sharp capex cuts in North America. He also predicted that wireless CAPEX in the North America (NA) region would decline 10% to 20% in 2023 as per this chart:
Now, that NA CAPEX decline seems more like 30% this year!
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References:
U.S. 5G spending slowdown continues; RAN revenues set to decline for years!
USA’s 5G capex bubble will burst this year as three main operators cut back
GSM 5G-Market Snapshot Highlights – July 2023 (includes 5G SA status)
Worldwide Telecom Capex to Decline in 2023, According to Dell’Oro Group
https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/wireless-capex-north-america-expected-decline-10-20-2023
Dell’Oro: Telecom Capex Growth to Slow in calendar years 2022-2024
IEEE President Elect: IEEE Overview, 2024 Priorities and Strategic Plan
by Tom Coughlin, IEEE President Elect (edited by Alan J Weissberger)
IEEE at a Glance:
- 420,000 members in 190+ countries
- Sponsors 2,000+ conferences in 96 countries annually
- 5 million+ documents in the IEEE Xplore® digital library, with 15 million+ downloads each month
- Publishes approximately 200 transactions, journals, and magazines; IEEE is 3 out of the top 5 publications on AI, Automation and Control Systems, and Computer Science HW and SW
- Leader in tech patents granted
- 1,076 active standards (including IEEE 802.3 Ethernet and IEEE 802.11 WiFi)
- 900+ standards under development
- 46 Societies and Technical Councils
- IEEE members have won 21 Nobel Prizes
- Lots of volunteer opportunities!
Technical Expertise that is Broad and Deep:
IEEE is the most-cited publisher in new patents from top patenting organizations!
A study of the top 50 patenting organizations ranks IEEE #1 again:
- Nearly 3x more citations than any other publisher
- Patent referencing to IEEE increased 864% since 1997
- Analyzed by discipline, IEEE is the #1 most referenced publisher in AI, Blockchain, Computing, Cybersecurity, IoT, Power Systems, Semiconductors, Telecom and more
- The importance of sci-tech literature in patents is rising IEEE research is increasingly valuable to innovators
IEEE Priorities for 2024:
- Increasing outreach to younger IEEE members
- Increase engagement with industry groups
- Increasing our outreach to the broader public
- Make investments in new products and services
- Improve the communications and coordination between standards activities and the technical societies
Strengthening IEEE’s Value to Industry:
This will require serious work at the local section level as well as by various IEEE Organizational Units. Goals and objectives:
- Get members from industry involved in your local section leadership
- Work with your local companies
- Participate in local trade shows (exhibits, talks)
- Recognize local companies for their activities
- Getting IEEE engaged with industry is an important element in retaining and attracting younger members (one of our 2024 IEEE Priorities)
- IEEE organizational units must be part of this effort!
Note: IEEE will need to create a new strategic plan out to 2030.
FCC proposes 100 Mbps download as U.S. minimum broadband speed
Federal Communications Commission (FCC) Chairwoman Jessica Rosenworcel proposed a national goal of 100% affordable broadband access in the U.S. According to the official FCC release, Rosenworcel seeks to gauge the progress of broadband deployment, focusing on crucial characteristics such as affordability, adoption, availability, and equitable access for all Americans.
“In today’s world, everyone needs access to affordable, high-speed internet, no exceptions,” said Chairwoman Rosenworcel. “It’s time to connect everyone, everywhere. Anything short of 100% is just not good enough.”
As part of the plan, FCC now proposes to increase the national fixed broadband standard to 100 Mbps for download and 20 Mbps for upload, pushing internet service providers to enhance their offerings and reach more Americans. That’s up from 25 Mbps for download and 3 Mbps for upload which was established in 2015.
Anticipating future demands, Rosenworcel outlined a separate national goal of 1 Gbps for download and 500 Mbps for upload, ensuring that the United States remains at the forefront of digital innovation.
By increasing the national fixed broadband standard and setting ambitious targets, the FCC is taking decisive steps towards digital inclusion, opening up a world of opportunities in education, business, healthcare, and beyond.
References:
5G subscription prices rise in U.S. without killer applications or 5G features (which require a 5G SA core network)
According to 9to5Mac, both AT&T and Verizon are now increasing the cost of their legacy smartphone mobile service pricing plans by around $3 per line per month. That’s after both Verizon and AT&T raise their prices this Spring. The increased prices from both Verizon and AT&T are set to take effect in August. Verizon is increasing prices on: 5G Start, Go Unlimited, Beyond Unlimited, Beyond Unlimited w/5G Ultra Wideband, Above Unlimited, Above Unlimited w/5G Ultra Wideband, and Single Unlimited Talk & Text 500MB. That’s according to this reddit thread, which has several customers confirming the new incoming charges.
The AT&T support page that details the new fees that 5G subscribers will pay says that the price increase will “allow [AT&T] to continue to deliver the great wireless service you expect.”
–>Does anyone really believe that?
The 5G price increases from AT&T and Verizon seem particularly egregious as neither telco has deployed a 5G SA core network, without which there are no 5G features (e.g. network slicing, security, automation/ orchestration, MEC, etc).
These are just the latest price and fee hikes enacted by the nation’s big 5G network service providers. For example, Verizon is increasing the price on its 5G home broadband service to new customers by $10 per month. Separately, T-Mobile, AT&T and Verizon are reducing their autopay discounts for customers who use credit cards. Even some prepaid cellular network providers, like T-Mobile’s Metro, are raising prices.
Here’s what each company said on this topic during their earnings calls this week:
“We look for opportunities to alter that value equation back to the customer where they perceive that they’re getting a better value and better service and something more and it accretes into the business in terms of us being able to grow ARPUs [average revenues per user],” said AT&T CEO John Stankey this week during his company’s second quarter earnings call, according to Seeking Alpha, in response to a question about pricing. “As you can see, our profitability numbers have been really, really strong. And that all comes from managing the complete equation.”
Verizon’s CFO offered a similar take this week: “We continued to benefit from pricing actions, including a recent change to our Verizon Mobile Protect offering,” Tony Skiadas said during Verizon’s own second quarter call, according to Seeking Alpha. “We continue to assess opportunities to take targeted pricing actions to better monetize our products and services as we deliver great value for our customers. For example, we recently announced an increase in our FWA [fixed wireless access] bundle pricing for new customers, which we expect will provide service revenue benefits in the second half of the year.”
Analyst Comments:
“5G was supposed to offer connectivity products that could be adapted to different device types, verticals and industries, geographies, vehicles, drones,” wrote analyst Patrick Lopez, with Core Analysis. “The 5G business case hinges on enterprises, verticals and government adoption and willingness to pay for enhanced connectivity services. By and large, this hasn’t happened yet. There are several reasons for this, the main one being that to enable these, a network overall is necessary.”
“Recent administrative rate plan adjustments on older phone plans, a $10 bump to fixed wireless pricing, and the introduction of myPlan (along with comps from last year’s price increases) boosted consumer ARPA [average revenue per account] growth to +6.2% in Q2, and it should likely sustain at +4.5% or higher in the 2H of 2023,” wrote the financial analysts at Wells Fargo in a note to investors following the release of Verizon’s second quarter earnings [1.] . “These adjustments should put wireless service revenue growth at ~3.1% for FY’23, well within the range despite continued challenges on the consumer subs front,” they added.
Note 1. Verizon has struggled with sluggish customer gains. The company Verizon reported total postpaid phone net customer additions of roughly 8,000 during the second quarter. That figure includes approximately 136,000 net customer losses in Verizon’s consumer-focused business, offset by 144,000 net customer additions in Verizon’s business-focused division.
“With T-Mobile continuing its performance lead over Verizon and AT&T in independent studies and usually offering more affordable plans, these August price increases could be a net gain for the Un-carrier,” Michael Potuck, 9to5mac.com
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In the U.S. only T-Mobile and Dish Network have deployed 5G SA core networks, but neither have touted any 5G features available. T-Mobile states on its website, “T-Mobile and other CSPs are still in the early stages of 5G network slicing implementation. Gartner describes the industry as being in the “get started” phase of a three-phase rollout [2.].
Note 2. Gartner report: “Create Value and Drive Revenue With 5G Network Slicing Phased Approach,” Susan Welsh de Grimaldo, April 6, 2021.
References:
Verizon and AT&T raising prices for the second time this year, here’s who is impacted – 9to5Mac
https://www.droid-life.com/2023/07/28/verizon-5g-start-unlimited-price-increase/
The latest 5G innovation: Even more price increases | Light Reading
Another Opinion: 5G Fails to Deliver on Promises and Potential
Global Telco AI Alliance to progress generative AI for telcos
- Four major global telcos joined forces to launch the Global Telco AI Alliance to accelerate AI transformation of the existing telco business and create new business opportunities with AI services.
- They signed a Multilateral MOU for cooperation in the AI business, which includes the co-development of the Telco AI Platform.
Deutsche Telekom, e&, Singtel and SK Telecom have established a new industry group that aims to progress generative AI. Called the Global Telco AI Alliance, it represents a coordinated effort by these four operators to accelerate the AI-fuelled transformation of their businesses, and to develop new, AI-powered business models.
The Telco AI Platform will serve as the foundation both for new services – like chatbots and apps – as well as enhancements to existing telco services. The alliance members plan to establish a working group whose task will be to hammer out co-investment opportunities and the co-development of said platform.
Members will also support one another in operating AI services and apps in their respective markets, and cooperate to foster the growth of a telco AI-based ecosystem.
As of today, all the operators have done is sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU), under which they pledge to carry out all this work. A signing ceremony took place in Seoul, Korea, and was attended – either in person or virtually – by the CEOs of e&, Singtel and SK Telecom, and Deutsche Telekom’s board member for technology and innovation, Claudia Nemat. The Global Telco AI Alliance will also have to ensure that any AI-based services they develop are capable of accounting for cultural differences. They won’t get very far if their virtual assistants make culturally insensitive recommendations, for example.
The seniority of these signatories represents a strong statement of intent though, and the group said it will discuss appointing C-level representatives from each member to the Alliance.
“In order to make the most of the possibilities of generative AI for our customers and our industry, we want to develop industry-specific applications in the Telco AI Alliance. I am particularly pleased that this alliance also stands for bridging the gap between Europe and Asia and that we are jointly pursuing an open-vendor approach. Depending on the application, we can use the best technology. The founding of this alliance is an important milestone for our industry,” said Claudia Nemat, Board Member Technology and Innovation at Deutsche Telekom.
“We recognize AI’s immense potential in reshaping the telecommunications landscape and beyond and are excited to embark on this transformative journey with the formation of the Global Telco AI Alliance. The alliance signifies a strategic commitment to driving innovation and fostering collaborative efforts. Our shared goal is to redefine industry paradigms, establish new growth drivers through AI-powered business models, and pave the way for a new era of strategic cooperation, guiding our industry towards an exciting and prosperous future,” said Khalifa Al Shamsi, CEO of e& life.
“This alliance will enable us and our ecosystem of partners to significantly expedite the development of new and innovative AI services that can bring tremendous benefits to both businesses and consumers. With our advanced 5G network, we are well-placed to leverage AI to ideate and co-create and are already using it to enhance our own customer service and employee experience, increase productivity and drive learning,” said Yuen Kuan Moon, Group Chief Executive Officer of Singtel.
It is not clear at this stage of proceedings whether the operators plan to develop their own in-house AI assets, or license them from the likes of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, or Google Bard. On the one hand, going with a third party that has done most of the legwork offers efficiencies, but on the other hand, the Global Telco AI Alliance might prefer an AI that specialises in telecoms, rather than a generalist.
Japanese vendor NEC showed earlier this month – with the launch of its own large language model (LLM) for enterprises in its home market – that generative AI isn’t necessarily the preserve of Silicon Valley big tech. It also highlighted the desire to develop localised AI for different languages.
The announcement also doesn’t attempt to grapple with any potential ethical pitfalls that might befall the Alliance. While it’s a fairly safe bet that responsible AI development will be an important consideration, it’s always better when companies make that clear.
Even big tech has come round to that way of thinking, with the launch earlier this week of the Frontier Model Forum. Established by Google, Microsoft, OpenAI and self-styled ethical AI company Anthropic, the group aims to advance the development of responsible artificial intelligence for the benefit of humanity.
References:
https://telecoms.com/522891/telcos-team-up-for-ai-platform-project/
https://telecoms.com/522865/google-microsoft-anthropic-and-openai-launch-ai-safety-body/
https://telecoms.com/522603/nec-launches-its-own-generative-ai/