Dell’Oro Group
Dell’Oro: RAN market stable, Mobile Core Network market +14% Y/Y with 72 5G SA core networks deployed
A recently published report from Dell’Oro Group notes that after two years of steep declines, initial estimates show that total Radio Access Network (RAN) revenue—including baseband, radio hardware, and software, excluding services—was flat outside of China and up when excluding North America.
“The nearly stable results for the 1Q25-3Q25 period bolster the flat growth thesis we have communicated for some time, reflecting the current state of the 5G network,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN market research at the Dell’Oro Group. “While near-term RAN expectations remain muted, some of the leading RAN suppliers are still cautiously optimistic that more investments are needed over the long-term to ensure the networks evolve from a connectivity pipe into an intelligence grid,” Pongratz added.
Additional highlights from the 3Q 2025 RAN report:
- In the quarter, growth in EMEA was nearly enough to offset declining revenue in North America and the Asia Pacific regions.
- The top 5 RAN suppliers, based on worldwide revenues for the 1Q25-3Q25 period, are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
- Market is becoming more concentrated—the top five suppliers accounted for 96 percent of the 1Q25-3Q25 RAN market, up from 95 percent in 2024.
- Huawei and Ericsson’s worldwide RAN revenue share improved for the 1Q25-3Q25 period relative to 2024.
- Huawei and Nokia’s RAN revenue share outside of North America improved for the 1Q25-3Q25 period relative to 2024.
- The short-term outlook remains unchanged, with total RAN expected to remain mostly stable in 2026.
Dell’Oro Group’s RAN Quarterly Report offers a complete overview of the RAN industry, with tables covering manufacturers’ and market revenue for multiple RAN segments including 5G NR Sub-7 GHz, 5G NR mmWave, LTE, macro base stations and radios, small cells, Massive MIMO, Open RAN, and vRAN. The report also tracks the RAN market by region and includes a four-quarter outlook. To purchase this report, please contact us by email at [email protected].
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Data from Omdia, a Light Reading sister company, shows Ericsson, Huawei and Nokia were even more dominant last year than they were in 2023, growing their combined RAN market share by 2.3 percentage points over this period, to 77.4%. Besides China’s ZTE, the only other contender with more than a percentage point of market share was Samsung.
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Another recent Dell’Oro Group report reveals that the Mobile Core Network (MCN) market revenue outside China surged 14% year-over-year (Y/Y) in 3Q 2025. Twelve Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) have now selected to move forward with 5G-Advanced (the marketing term used for the next phases of 3GPP’s 5G specs, which started with Release 18 and continues with Release 19 and beyond).
“The Chinese market experienced abnormally high growth in 3Q 2024. As a result, the China market revenue declined 39 percent Y/Y for 3Q 2025,” stated Dave Bolan, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “The revenue for all the other regions increased, between 9 percent and 17 percent Y/Y, resulting in a worldwide revenue decline of 2 percent Y/Y. As noted, revenue worldwide excluding China rose 14 percent Y/Y, continuing the trend in subscribers migrating to 5G Standalone (5G SA), and revenue worldwide excluding North America declined 5 percent Y/Y.
“MNOs are moving forward with 5G SA (72 in our last count) and moving forward to take advantage of monetization opportunities. Network Slicing announcements continued. Of note is Reliance Jio (India), which announced 10 network slices with guaranteed service level agreements (SLAs) at scale. In October, T-Mobile launched Edge Control, providing enterprises with what Dell’Oro Group refers to as an MNO-provided Mobile Private Network (MPN). This is in response to the challenges of implementing 5G SA Private Wireless networks in the shared CBRS spectrum in the US.
“We have identified 12 MNOs that have commercially launched 5G-Advanced networks (not all this quarter), to take 5G to the next level with new features and performance. MNOs include: China Mobile, China Telecom, China Unicom, CTM (Macau), Du (UAE), e& (UAE), HKT (Hong Kong), Singtel (Singapore), Telstra (Australia), T-Mobile (USA), YTL (Malaysia), and Zain (Kuwait),” added Bolan.
Additional highlights from the 3Q 2025 Mobile Core Network and Multi-Access Edge Computing Report include:
- Region rankings were: EMEA; Asia Pacific, excluding China; China and North America tied; CALA.
- Vendor rankings (with more than 5 percent share) were: Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, and ZTE.
The Dell’Oro Group Mobile Core Network & Multi-Access Edge Computing Quarterly Report offers complete, in-depth coverage of the market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, shipments, and average selling prices for Traditional Packet Core, Evolved Packet Core, 5G Packet Core, Policy, Subscriber Data Management, Signaling, Circuit Switched Core, and IMS Core by geographic regions. To purchase this report, please contact us at [email protected].
About Dell’Oro Group:
Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, security, enterprise networks, and data center infrastructure markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions.
For more information, contact Dell’Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit https://www.delloro.com.
References:
MCN Market Up 14 Percent Outside China in 3Q 2025, According to Dell’Oro Group
Market research firms Omdia and Dell’Oro: impact of 6G and AI investments on telcos
Omdia on resurgence of Huawei: #1 RAN vendor in 3 out of 5 regions; RAN market has bottomed
Omdia: Huawei increases global RAN market share due to China hegemony
Dell’Oro Group: RAN Market Grows Outside of China in 2Q 2025
Dell’Oro: RAN revenue growth in 1Q2025; AI RAN is a conundrum
Dell’Oro: Global RAN Market to Drop 21% between 2021 and 2029
Dell’Oro: RAN market still declining with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung top vendors
Highlights of Dell’Oro’s 5-year RAN forecast
Dell’Oro: 2023 global telecom equipment revenues declined 5% YoY; Huawei increases its #1 position
Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024
Dell’Oro: Mobile Core Network market has lowest growth rate since 4Q 2017
Dell’Oro: Mobile Core Network market driven by 5G SA networks in China
Dell’Oro: Mobile Core Network Market 5 Year Forecast
Dell’Oro: AI RAN to account for 1/3 of RAN market by 2029; AI RAN Alliance membership increases but few telcos have joined
Market research firms Omdia and Dell’Oro: impact of 6G and AI investments on telcos
Market research firm Omdia (owned by Informa) this week forecast that 6G and AI investments are set to drive industry growth in the global communications market. As a result, global communications providers’ revenue is expected to reach $5.6 trillion by 2030, growing at a 6.2% CAGR from 2025. Investment momentum is also expected to shift toward mobile networks from 2028 onward, as tier 1 markets prepare for 6G deployments. Telecoms capex is forecast to reach $395 billion by 2030, with a 3.6% CAGR, while technology capex will surge to $545 billion, reflecting a 9.3% CAGR.
Fixed telecom capex will gradually decline due to market saturation. Meanwhile, AI infrastructure, cloud services, and digital sovereignty policies are driving telecom operators to expand data centers and invest in specialized hardware.
Key market trends:
- CP capex per person will increase from $74 in 2024 to $116 in 2030, with CP capex reaching 2.5% of global GDP investment.
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Capital intensity in telecom will decline until 2027, then rise due to mobile network upgrades.
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Regional leaders in revenue and capex include North America, Oceania & Eastern Asia, and Western Europe, with Central & Southern Asia showing the highest growth potential.
Dario Talmesio, research director at Omdia said, “telecom operators are entering a new phase of strategic investment. With 6G on the horizon and AI infrastructure demands accelerating, the connectivity business is shifting from volume-based pricing to value-driven connectivity.”
Omdia’s forecast is based on a comprehensive model incorporating historical data from 67 countries, local market dynamics, regulatory trends, and technology migration patterns.
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Separately, Dell’Oro Group sees 6G capex ramping around 2030, although it warns that the RAN market remains flat, “raising key questions for the industry’s future.” Cumulative 6G RAN investments over the 2029-2034 period are projected to account for 55% to 60% of the total RAN capex over the same forecast period.
“Our long-term position and characterization of this market have not changed,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex research at Dell’Oro Group. “The RAN network plays a pivotal role in the broader telecom market. There are opportunities to expand the RAN beyond the traditional MBB (mobile broadband) use cases. At the same time, there are serious near-term risks tilted to the downside, particularly when considering the slowdown in data traffic,” continued Pongratz.
Additional highlights from Dell’Oro’s October 2025 6G Advanced Research Report:
- The baseline scenario is for the broader RAN market to stay flat over the next 10 years. This is built on the assumption that the mobile network will run into utilization challenges by the end of the decade, spurring a 6G capex ramp dominated by Massive MIMO systems in the Sub-7GHz/cm Wave spectrum, utilizing the existing macro grid as much as possible.
- The report also outlines more optimistic and pessimistic growth scenarios, depending largely on the mobile data traffic growth trajectory and the impact beyond MBB, including private wireless and FWA (fixed wireless access).
- Cumulative 6G RAN investments over the 2029-2034 period are projected to account for 55 to 60 percent of the total RAN capex over the same forecast period.
Dell’Oro Group’s 6G Advanced Research Report offers an overview of the RAN market by technology, with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue for total RAN over the next 10 years. 6G RAN is analyzed by spectrum (Sub-7 GHz, cmWave, mmWave), by Massive MIMO, and by region (North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, China, Asia Pacific Excl. China, and CALA). To purchase this report, please contact by email at [email protected].
References:
https://www.lightreading.com/6g/6g-momentum-is-building
6G Capex Ramp to Start Around 2030, According to Dell’Oro Group
https://www.lightreading.com/6g/6g-course-correction-vendors-hear-mno-pleas
https://www.lightreading.com/6g/what-at-t-really-wants-from-6g
Dell’Oro Group: RAN Market Grows Outside of China in 2Q 2025
Following two years of steep declines, initial estimates by Dell’Oro Group reveal that total RAN revenues—including baseband, radio hardware, and software, excluding services—advanced for a third consecutive quarter outside of China in 2Q 2025.
“Our initial assessment confirms that the narrative we’ve been discussing for some time is now coming to fruition. Market conditions have continued to stabilize, resulting in growth for three consecutive quarters outside of China,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN market research at the Dell’Oro Group. “However, broader market sentiment remains subdued, and a rapid rebound is not anticipated. The industry acknowledges that short-term fluctuations are unlikely to alter the market’s generally flat long-term trajectory,” Pongratz added.
Additional highlights from the 2Q 2025 RAN report:
- Growth in Europe, as well as the Middle East and Africa, nearly offset declines in the Caribbean and Latin America, as well as the Asia Pacific region.
- RAN vendor dynamics are gradually shifting, driven by three major trends: the strong are getting stronger, laggards are not improving, and the market is becoming increasingly divided.
- Ericsson and Huawei together accounted for more than 60 percent of the 1H25 market in North America and China, respectively.
- The top 5 RAN suppliers, based on worldwide revenues for the trailing four quarters, are Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
- The short-term outlook remains unchanged, with total RAN expected to stabilize in 2025.
For sure, RAN is not a growth market (+1% CAGR between 2000 and 2023). However, underneath that flattish topline over time, RAN revenues fluctuate significantly as new spectrum/technologies become available. After a massive RAN surge between 2017 and 2021, RAN revenues declined sharply in 2023 and the fundamental question now is fairly straightforward – how will the slowdown in mobile data traffic impact the RAN market over the next five years? The constantly changing and increasingly demanding end-user expectations in combination with the search for growth present opportunities and challenges for incumbent RAN suppliers and new entrants.
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Huawei’s ability to sustain growth during a period of industry volatility can be attributed to several key factors:
- Strong Presence in China: Huawei maintains a commanding position in its home market, which remains one of the largest and most competitive globally. Despite external pressures and restrictions, its domestic strength provides stability and scale.
- Expanding Global Footprint: Growth in regions such as Europe, the Middle East, and Africa helped Huawei offset weaker performance in Asia Pacific, the Caribbean, and Latin America. These markets have been central to Huawei’s strategy of diversifying its global presence.
- Technological Advancements in 5G: Huawei has continued to invest heavily in 5G RAN innovation, leveraging advanced radio hardware, AI-driven network optimization, and energy-efficient base stations. These capabilities strengthen its competitive edge in delivering cost-effective and high-performance solutions.
- Resilient Business Strategy: Despite global challenges, including regulatory restrictions in certain markets, Huawei has adapted by strengthening local partnerships, investing in regional ecosystems, and optimizing supply chain resilience.
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According to the recent Omdia report, Ericsson is the top RAN vendor in both business performance and portfolio strength in 2025, thanks in part to its energy-efficient products, comprehensive support across radio technologies, and Open RAN–ready offerings.
Ericsson also continues expanding its enterprise solutions, with integrated strategies that include private 5G, Cradlepoint, and cloud-native cores. In India, Ericsson signed a multi-billion-dollar 4G/5G equipment deal with Bharti Airtel to enhance network coverage using Open RAN-ready solutions.
Nokia is actively replacing Huawei in key European deployments—securing a major Open RAN contract to supply Deutsche Telekom across 3,000 German sites. In the U.S., Nokia signed a multi-year deal with AT&T to provide cloud-based voice core and 5G network automation solutions powered by AI/ML. Nokia is gaining ground in Europe and the U.S. through modernization and automation contracts. Samsung is leveraging Open RAN partnerships for a comeback, and overall vendor competition is shaped by technology shifts toward cloud-native, AI-enabled, and multi-vendor architectures.
Samsung is stepping up in the Open RAN ecosystem — as illustrated by a successful joint demonstration between Samsung, Vodafone, and AMD showcasing a full Open RAN voice call using AMD processors and Samsung’s O-RAN vRAN software. Despite its RAN equipment revenues falling 25% in 2024, Samsung remains well positioned in Europe and Africa, particularly in Vodafone tenders for replacing Huawei, which may drive recovery through expanded vRAN/Open RAN adoption.
In summary, the global RAN market is stabilizing after a steep downturn in 2024. Huawei holds steady in core markets like China and parts of Europe, while Ericsson leads globally on portfolio strength and new deals — particularly Open RAN and enterprise solutions.
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References:
RAN Market Grows Outside of China, According to Dell’Oro Group
https://telecomlead.com/telecom-equipment/huawei-achieves-growth-in-global-ran-market-amid-industry-stabilization-122275
https://www.ericsson.com/en/ran/omdia-2025
Dell’Oro: AI RAN to account for 1/3 of RAN market by 2029; AI RAN Alliance membership increases but few telcos have joined
Dell’Oro: RAN revenue growth in 1Q2025; AI RAN is a conundrum
Omdia: Huawei increases global RAN market share due to China hegemony
Network equipment vendors increase R&D; shift focus as 0% RAN market growth forecast for next 5 years!
vRAN market disappoints – just like OpenRAN and mobile 5G
Mobile Experts: Open RAN market drops 83% in 2024 as legacy carriers prefer single vendor solutions
Dell’Oro: Global RAN Market to Drop 21% between 2021 and 2029
Dell’Oro: Global RAN Market to Drop 21% between 2021 and 2029
According to a new report from Dell’Oro Group, the overall RAN market is now facing a second consecutive year of steep declines. That follows 40 to 50% revenue growth between 2017 and 2021. While the pace of decline is expected to moderate after 2024, downward pressure is likely to persist until 6G becomes a reality.
In addition to the typical market fluctuations that have shaped the RAN landscape over the past 30-plus years, the overpromising of 5G and its inability to significantly alter the flat revenue trend among operators are fueling increased skepticism regarding the need for substantial investments in new technologies (like 5G Advanced, 5G RedCap or O-RAN).
“Some skepticism is warranted. After all, operators invested over $2 trillion in wireless capex between 2010 and 2023 to build out 4G and 5G, yet revenues remain flat,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex research at Dell’Oro Group. “Looking ahead, operators will need to optimize their spectrum roadmaps to address various data traffic scenarios. Our base case assumes that mobile data traffic growth will continue to slow, enabling operators to improve their capital intensity ratios, which will in turn put further downward pressure on the RAN market. However, additional capacity will eventually be required, and at that point, leveraging larger spectrum bands and the existing macro grid will likely offer the most cost-effective solution,” Pongratz added.
Additional highlights from the new 6G Advanced Research Report:
- Total RAN revenues are projected to trend downward until 2029
- 6G RAN revenues to approach $30 B by 2033
- Sub-7 GHz and CM-wave macros are expected to dominate the 6G mix by 2033
Dell’Oro Group’s 6G Advanced Research Report offers a complete overview of the RAN market by region and by technology, with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue for 5G NR and 6G by frequency, including Sub-7 GHz, cmWave, and mmWave. The report also covers Cloud RAN, small cells, and Massive MIMO. To purchase this report, please contact by email at [email protected].
References:
6G RAN to Approach $30 B by 2033, According to Dell’Oro Group
https://www.ericsson.com/en/blog/2023/6/cm-wave-spectrum-6g-potent-enabler
Dell’Oro: RAN market still declining with Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE and Samsung top vendors
Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024
Highlights of Dell’Oro’s 5-year RAN forecast
Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023
Dell’Oro: 2023 global telecom equipment revenues declined 5% YoY; Huawei increases its #1 position
Dell’Oro: Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network & Cable CPE shipments all declined in 1Q-2024
Apparently, there’s no place to hide in any telecom or datacom market? We all know the RAN market has been in a severe decline, but recent Dell’Oro Group reports indicate that Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network and Cable CPE shipments have also declined sharply in the 1st Quarter of 2024.
Here are a few selected quotes from Dell’Oro analysts:
“The North American broadband market is in the midst of a fundamental shift in the competitive landscape, which is having a significant impact on broadband equipment purchases,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President with Dell’Oro Group. “In particular, cable operators are trying to navigate mounting, but predictable, broadband subscriber losses with the need to invest in their networks to keep pace with further encroachment by fiber and fixed wireless providers,” explained Heynen.
Omdia, owned by the ADVA, expects cable access equipment spending to grow later in 2024 and peak in 2026 at just over $1 billion, then drop off to $700 million in 2029.
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“Customer’s excess inventory of DWDM systems continued to be at the center stage of the Optical Transport market decline in the first quarter of 2024,” said Jimmy Yu, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “However, we think the steeper-than-expected drop in optical transport revenue in 1Q 2024 may have been driven by communication service providers becoming increasingly cautious about the macroeconomic conditions, causing them to delay projects into future quarters,” added Yu.
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“Inflation has impacted the ability of some Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) to raise capital, and it has also impacted subscribers when it comes to upgrading their phones to 5G. Many MNOs have lowered their CAPEX plans and announced that they have fewer than expected 5G subscribers on their networks; which limits MNOs’ growth plans. As a result, we are lowering our expectations for 2024 from a positive growth rate to a negative one,” by Research Director Dave Bolan.
- As of 1Q 2024, 51 MNOs have commercially deployed 5G SA (Stand Alone) eMBB networks with two additional MNOS launching in 1Q 2024.
References:
Optical Transport Equipment Market Forecast to Decline in 2024, According to Dell’Oro Group
Optical Transport Equipment Market Forecast to Decline in 2024, According to Dell’Oro Group
Dell’Oro: 2023 global telecom equipment revenues declined 5% YoY; Huawei increases its #1 position
Preliminary Dell’Oro Group data found that worldwide telecom equipment revenues across the six telecom programs tracked – Broadband Access, Microwave & Optical Transport, Mobile Core Network (MCN), Radio Access Network (RAN), and SP Router & Switch – declined 5% year-over-year (YoY) for the full year 2023, performing worse than expected. First and foremost, challenging comparisons in some of the advanced 5G markets with higher 5G population coverage taken together with the slow transition towards 5G SA helped to partially explain steep declines in wireless-based investments. This capex deceleration was not confined to the RAN and MCN segments. Following a couple of years of robust PON investments, operators were able to curtail their home broadband capex as well. This reduction was more than enough to offset positive developments with optical transport and Service Provider routers.
The North America telecom equipment market declined faster than expected. Initial readings show that the aggregate telecom equipment market dropped by roughly a fifth in the North America region, underpinned by weak activity in both RAN and Broadband Access. On the bright side, regional dynamics were more favorable outside of the US. Our assessment is that worldwide revenues excluding North America advanced in 2023, as positive developments in the Asia Pacific region were mostly sufficient to offset weaker growth across Europe.
Also contributing to the regional and technology trends is the disruption caused by Covid hoarding and the supply chain crisis. Although this inventory correction was not felt everywhere and varied across the telecom segments, it was more notable in the RAN this past year.
Renewed concerns about macroeconomic conditions, Forex, and higher borrowing costs are also weighing down prospects for growth. The gains in the USD against the Yuan and the Yen are impacting USD-based equipment revenue estimates in China and Japan.
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Dell’Oro says that Huawei maintained its lead as the top global telecom equipment company by revenue in 2023, despite efforts by the U.S. government and other countries to limit its addressable market and access to Android and the latest chips and semiconductor technology from TSMC. In fact, Dell’Oro’s assessment is that Huawei’s lead widened in 2023, in part because its limited exposure to the North America region was a benefit in 2023 on a relative basis.
Supplier rankings were mostly unchanged. However, vendor revenue shares shifted slightly in 2023. Still, the overall concentration has not changed – the top seven suppliers accounted for around 80% of the overall market.
Market conditions are expected to remain challenging in 2024, though the decline is projected to be less severe than in 2023. The analyst team is collectively forecasting global telecom equipment revenues to contract 0 to -5% in 2024. Risks are broadly balanced. In addition to currency fluctuations, economic uncertainty, and inventory normalization, there are multiple regions/technology segments that are operating in a non-steady state.
References:
Dell’Oro & Omdia: Global RAN market declined in 2023 and again in 2024
Dell’Oro: Broadband access equipment sales to increase in 2025 led by XGS-PON deployments
Global 5G Market Snapshot; Dell’Oro and GSA Updates on 5G SA networks and devices
Dell’Oro: Broadband network equipment spending to drop again in 2024 to ~$16.5 B
Dell’Oro: Mobile Core Network market has lowest growth rate since 4Q 2017
Dell’Oro: U.S. suppliers ~20% of global telecom equipment market; struggling in RAN business
Dell’Oro: RAN market declines at very fast pace while Mobile Core Network returns to growth in Q2-2023
A new report from Dell’Oro Group says RAN sales declined at their fastest pace in nearly seven years during Q2-2023. According to preliminary findings from the market research firm, following the ‘intense ramp-up’ from 2017 through 2021. While RAN revenues stabilized in 2022 and 1Q23, market conditions worsened in the second quarter, resulting in RAN declining at the fastest pace in nearly seven years. The decline was not unexpected by Dell’Oro, yet the magnitude of the reversal was much steeper than anticipated.
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The RAN market decline was surely expected by IEEE Techblog readers, as this publication has warned for years about the commercial failure of 5G mobile networks.
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“It is tempting to point the finger at data traffic patterns, 5G monetization challenges, and the odds stacked against an economy struggling with persistent levels of elevated inflation,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Although these are, of course, important factors, we attribute the poor performance in the quarter to the clouds forming in North America. Alongside challenging 5G comparisons, the decline was amplified by the extra inventory accumulated over the past couple of years to mitigate supply chain risks,” Pongratz added.
Additional highlights from the Q2-2023 RAN report:
- Top 5 RAN suppliers for 1H23 include Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, ZTE, and Samsung.
- Nokia recorded the largest RAN revenue share gains between 2022 and 1H23.
- Huawei’s quarterly RAN share reached the highest level in three years. Huawei’s 2Q23 RAN revenue share outside of North America was as large as Ericsson and Nokia combined.
- Ericsson and Samsung’s RAN revenue shares declined between 2022 and 1H23.
- Regional projections are mostly unchanged; however, the short-term outlook has been revised upward in APAC excluding China and downward in the North American region.
- Global RAN revenues are expected to decline in 2023.
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In a separate report, Dell’Oro says the Mobile Core Network (MCN) market returned to growth in 2Q 2023. The China region returned to growth and Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) had the strongest quarterly growth rate since 3Q 2020.
“The MCN market shined on many fronts this quarter. The China region returned to growth with increased spending by two of the four Mobile Network Operators (MNOs). The EMEA region had its best quarterly growth rate since 2020, Huawei had record high revenues for the quarter, and Ericsson had its highest growth rate since 2Q20, as examples,” stated Dave Bolan, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “As a result, we are raising our outlook for 2023 year-over-year (Y/Y) growth rate from low single-digit percent to mid-single-digit percent.”
“As of 2Q 2023, we counted 44 Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) that have launched commercial 5G SA networks. One was added in 2Q 2023, Telefónica – Spain. The North America and EMEA regions of the 5G MCN segment Y/Y growth rates were in the triple-digit percent, signaling capacity additions to the 5G SA networks in both regions,” continued Bolan.
Editor’s Note: Despite years of promises, neither AT&T or Verizon has yet to deploy a 5G SA core network, without which no 3GPP defined 5G features/functions are possible.
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Additional highlights from the 2Q 2023 Mobile Core Network and Multi-Access Edge Computing Report include:
- The top MCN vendors worldwide for 2Q 2023 were Huawei, Ericsson, Nokia, and ZTE.
- The top 5G MCN vendors worldwide for 2Q 2023 were Huawei, Ericsson, ZTE, and Nokia.
- Five MNOs launched commercial 5G SA networks in 1H 2023.
References:
RAN Declines at the Fastest Pace in Seven Years, According to Dell’Oro Group
Mobile Core Network Market Returns to Growth in 2Q 2023, According to Dell’Oro Group
Dell’Oro: RAN Market to Decline 1% CAGR; Mobile Core Network growth reduced to 1% CAGR
Dell’Oro: OpenRAN revenue forecast revised down
through 2027
Dell’Oro: U.S. suppliers ~20% of global telecom equipment market; struggling in RAN business
Dell’Oro: Broadband Equipment Spending to exceed $120B from 2022 to 2027
Dell’Oro Group predicts the broadband equipment market will surpass $120 billion in cumulative spending between 2022 and 2027. The market research firm says sales of PON equipment for fiber-to-the-home deployments, cable broadband access equipment, and fixed wireless CPE will show a 0.2% Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) from 2022 to 2027. Service providers continue to expand their fiber and DOCSIS 3.1/4.0 networks, while also increasing the reliability and sustainability of their broadband access networks.
“After three consecutive years of tremendous broadband network expansions and upgrades, 2023 is expected to show a return to normalized levels of spending,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President of Broadband Access and Home Networking research at Dell’Oro Group. “After 2023, spending is expected to increase through 2026 and 2027, driven by 25 Gbps and 50 Gbps PON, Fixed Wireless CPE, as well as DAA and DOCSIS 4.0 deployments.”
Labor markets are “still being challenged” and a number of fiber based network operators (AT&T, Altice USA, Frontier) have reduced their expansion plans and homes passed targets. “To close out 2022 we did see a significant uptake in equipment purchases, and what happened there was supply chains appeased. A lot of orders that had been on the books for a long time have been fulfilled.”
Network equipment vendors are working through that inventory they had built up while taking on “additional equipment purchases.
Additional highlights from the Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year July 2023 Forecast Report:
- PON equipment revenue is expected to grow from $11.8 B in 2022 to $13.3 B in 2027, driven largely by XGS-PON deployments in North America, EMEA, and CALA.
- Revenue for Cable Distributed Access Equipment (Virtual CCAP, Remote PHY Devices, Remote MACPHY Devices, and Remote OLTs) is expected to reach $1.6 B by 2027, as operators ramp their DOCSIS 4.0 and fiber deployments.
- Revenue for Fixed Wireless CPE is expected to reach $2.7 B by 2027, led by shipments of 5G sub-6GHz and 5G Millimeter Wave units.
- Revenue for Residential Wi-Fi Routers will surpass $5.2 B in 2027, owing to massive shipments of Wi-Fi 7 units.
“Which isn’t going to float to manufacturers until you know, late 2024, really into 2025,” he said. “I think in the interim, XGS-PON in the European market is certainly going to catch up. We’re also seeing considerable growth in XGS-PON deployments now in China.”
In Dell’Oro’s five-year forecast published in January, Heynen expected fixed wireless subscriber growth, particularly in North America, would “start to moderate” beginning in 2024, due to factors like “capacity issues and fiber expansion.”
Heynen has increased his revenue predictions for the fixed wireless CPE market – which he previously tipped would hit $2.2 billion in five years – and now predicts subscriber growth to continue into 2025.
“Part of that is because of the net reduction in homes passed for fiber,” he said. “In the meantime, fixed wireless will be able to cover more ground while the operators who are building out fiber kind of extend their overall deployment plans.”
Further, operators like T-Mobile and Verizon “are seeing fixed wireless as a way to secure broadband subscribers away from cable operators. The U.S. market is really dynamic in terms of how services can be marketed.”
The Dell’Oro Group Broadband Access & Home Networking 5-Year Forecast Report provides a complete overview of the Broadband Access market with tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and port/unit shipments for PON, Cable, Fixed Wireless, and DSL equipment. Covered equipment includes Converged Cable Access Platforms (CCAP), Distributed Access Architectures (DAA), DSL Access Multiplexers (DSLAMs), PON Optical Line Terminals (OLTs), Customer Premises Equipment ([CPE] for Cable, DSL, PON, Fixed Wireless), along with Residential WLAN Equipment, including Wi-Fi 6E and Wi-Fi 7 Gateways and Routers. For more information about the report, please contact [email protected].
Dell’Oro Group is a market research firm that specializes in strategic competitive analysis in the telecommunications, security, enterprise networks, data center infrastructure markets. Our firm provides in-depth quantitative data and qualitative analysis to facilitate critical, fact-based business decisions. For more information, contact Dell’Oro Group at +1.650.622.9400 or visit www.delloro.com.
References:
https://www.fiercetelecom.com/telecom/broadband-equipment-market-eclipse-120b-2027-delloro
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Futuriom and Dell’Oro weigh in on SD-WAN and SASE market: single vendor solutions prevail
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Futuriom and Dell’Oro weigh in on SD-WAN and SASE market: single vendor solutions prevail
Enterprise networking and IT cybersecurity professionals are turning to managed SD-WAN (software-defined wide area networking) and SASE (secure access service edge) services to deal with the increasing challenges caused by network complexity, according to a new report from market research firm Futuriom.
SD-WAN and SASE have been evolving and maturing for several years now, but the market is far from mature. It is still growing and is highly fragmented, both in terms of the companies involved in providing services and technology to enterprise users and in how SD-WAN and SASE capabilities are deployed and consumed by enterprises.
What’s needed more than ever are software-based platforms for integrating the management of network and security functions at the same time. This approach was first initiated by SD-WAN, which separated the software control from the hardware for branch-office networking. SD-WAN evolved and grew by adapting security functionality (SASE), which could be integrated into the network platform.
The market has expanded to include SASE functionality, which provides cybersecurity functions such as secure web gateway (SWG), cloud access security broker (CASB), firewall-as-a-service (FWaaS), intrusion detection, zero-trust network access (ZTNA), and many others to protect enterprise access to public networks and SaaS apps.
Futuriom’s survey took place in March and April of 2023. The total audience of 196 respondents came from three countries: the U.S. (127 respondents), Germany (37), and India (32).
Report Highlights and Key Findings:
- Survey respondents indicate strong demand for SD-WAN and SASE managed services. Our survey data and discussions with end users indicate that SD-WAN/SASE technology helps professionals with network and security challenges, including the growing complexity created by distributed applications, cloud connectivity, and sprawling security risks.
- Managing network complexity is the largest challenge driving managed services demand. When asked about the largest challenges in managing WANs, 85% of respondents identified complexity, followed by expertise and knowledge (68%). Rounding out the responses were cost (60%) and time (47%). (Multiple responses were allowed.)
- Hybrid work and the need for zero-trust network access (ZTNA) are key drivers of SD-WAN/SASE technology. In the survey, 98% of respondents said that hybrid work has increased demand for SASE and ZTNA. When we asked respondents if ZTNA is a crucial component of SASE and SD-WAN offerings, 92% said yes.
- Hybrid (cloud/edge deployment) and single-pass architectures will be important components of SASE/SD-WAN services going forward. When respondents were asked if they wanted a hybrid solution that can accommodate networking and security both on premises and using cloud points of presence (PoPs), 98% said yes. In addition, 94% of respondents said they prefer a single-pass architecture.
- There will continue to be a diversity of SD-WAN/SASE deployment models. The two most popular models for deployment are best-of-breed combination (34%) and single-vendor (23%), but survey results show a wide diversity of deployment models.
Companies covered in this report: Aryaka, Amazon, AT&T, British Telecom, Cato Networks, Check Point Software, Cisco, Colt, Comcast, Deutsche Telekom/T-Systems, Forcepoint, Fortinet, HPE (Aruba), Hughes, Juniper Networks, Lumen Technology, NTT, Orange, Palo Alto Networks, Tata Communications, Telefónica, Telstra, VMware, Verizon, Versa Networks, Vodafone, Windstream, Zscaler.
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Separately, Dell’Oro Group reported that the portion of the SASE market, where vendors offer both SD-WAN and SSE (security service edge) solutions, grew an impressive 55% year-over-year (YoY) in 1Q 2023. By doing so, single-vendor SASE overtook the multi-vendor SASE portion of the market, consisting of vendors that can only offer the SD-WAN or SSE component. The overall SASE market revenue rose by over 30 percent for the fifth consecutive quarter in 1Q 2023 and, by doing so, was not far off the $2B mark.
“Even as enterprises have been more judicious in how they spend security budget, the robust growth of the SASE market is a testament to the strong commitment by enterprises and the value they bring to secure users’ access to cloud-based applications from anywhere,” said Mauricio Sanchez, Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “The vendors that can offer both the SD-WAN and SSE components are setting themselves apart in an extremely competitive market,” added Sanchez.
Additional highlights from the 1Q 2023 SASE and SD-WAN Quarterly Report:
- For the first time since Dell’Oro started tracking SASE in 1Q 2019, there was a revenue position change in the number one spot, with Zscaler overtook Cisco.
- Palo Alto Networks overtook Broadcom (Symantec) for the number three overall SASE revenue position.
- Check Point, HPE/Aruba, and Netskope became single-vendor SASE players.
- Both SSE and SD-WAN revenue grew above 30 percent YoY.
- Unified SASE solutions–defined as SASE solutions where SD-WAN and SSE have been tightly integrated into a single technology stack–eclipsed $200M for the third consecutive quarter, representing over 140% growth.
- Overall SASE revenue growth on a regional basis varied from 27% in North America to 49% percent in the Caribbean and Latin America.
- The Access Router market revenue surged forward by over 15% YoY on improved hardware supply.
The Dell’Oro Group SASE & SD-WAN report includes manufacturers’ revenue covering the SASE and Access Router markets. In addition, the report analyzes the SASE market from two perspectives, technology (SD-WAN networking and SSE security) and implementation (unified and disaggregated). The report also provides unit information for the Access Router market. To purchase this report, please contact us at [email protected].
References:
https://www.futuriom.com/articles/news/results-from-our-sd-wan-sase-managed-services-survey/2023/06
