3GPP approves timelines for Release 21 which will specify 6G RAN, Core and 5G Advanced
At 3GPPs meeting last week in Singapore, Technical Specification Group (TSG) RAN #112 approved the full Release-21 timeline jointly proposed by the three TSG Chairs. On June 12th, more than 150 participants from the regions ICT community attended ‘3GPP 6G Standardization: From Study to Specification,’ featuring the combined technical leadership of 3GPP. Topics covered in the summit included the 3GPP Chairs’ analysis of progress this week on 5G Advanced work items and 6G studies across the TSGs. There were also expert overviews on some key topics: AI/ML, ISAC (integrated sensing and communications), Massive MIMO evolution, NTN standards cooperation and security considerations for the 3GPP 6G System.
This formally completes the first 6G study item in 3GPP and sets the stage for the third quarter this year in which 3GPP working groups must settle numerous questions, including the migration architecture that network operators have wanted a decision on for over a year. 3GPP TSG RAN Chairman Younsun Kim, PhD, Samsung, said during a joint session with the other two TSGs (SA and CT) that “no decisions were possible” on migration options, with input now hoped for at TSG RAN#113, scheduled for September 14–17, 2026 in Madrid, Spain. Vodafone warned in a 3GPP contribution titled, “Good migration option decisions in September need hardware impacting decisions now!” that the September decision point only works if the plenary stopped deferring decisions.
Some achievements at this 3GPP Singapore meeting:
- Over 590 standards delegates welcomed by our Hosts to Singapore.
- Social events and a Singapore Industry summit on 3GPP held.
- Singapore Ministry and Government visitors welcomed as guests.
- All Work Items and Study Items for 5G‑Advanced on schedule in Release‑
- 14 Study Items for 6G progressing.
- The TSG RAN Study on 6G Scenarios and requirements (TR 38.914) approved this week.
- First timeline for early 6G specifications approved (Rel-21).
3GPP’s Release 21 will comprise the first 6G specs as well as 5G-Advanced. Release 21 work items for 6G and 5G-Advanced are scheduled to be approved with a first functional freeze in March 2027 and a second freeze in June 2028, with a “checkpoint” in March 2028 for 80% of the work to be done. The stage 3 final freeze is set for December 2028. The full and final code freeze is scheduled for March 2029.
Guy Daniels wrote in a blog post titled, “Analysis of 3GPP RAN #112: Timeline locked but the migration question unanswered“:
There is a 3GPP structural oddity in the details. The March 2027 6G “package approval” is the approval of a placeholder whose RAN2/3/4 content is finalized three months later. This is deliberate concurrency, not an oversight, it’s how the 3GPP works. The normative engineering windows are equally tight: RAN1 runs Q2 2027 to Q3 2028; RAN2/3/4 run Q3 2027 to Q4 2028; six quarters each to specify a new radio generation.”
“The Scenarios and Requirements study is finished, but the political questions it deferred are not. The requirements now say what 6G must do. September begins the fight over what it will be.”
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In a blog post summarizing last week’s plenary meeting, Ericsson said 6G standardization “is in full swing” and highlighted some of the early 6G decisions, including choices for waveform, modulation, channel coding, a basic security framework and supported bandwidths. The agreed 6G waveform is to use cyclic-prefix orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (CP-OFDM) in the downlink. There are two options for uplink: CP-OFDM and discrete Fourier transform spread OFDM (DFT-s-OFDM). Supported bandwidths will range from 3MHz to 400MHz. 3GPP also agreed that 5G channel codes “will be largely reused” in 6G.
Here’s Ericsson’s timeline for 6G:
“6G is coming into focus…We are at a point now where a lot of pieces of the puzzle are starting to come together,” Gabriel Brown, senior principal analyst at Omdia, explained in a recent podcast with colleague and analyst Ruth Brown (no relation). The analysts also presented the 6G state of play at the 6G Summit hosted by ATIS’s Next G Alliance ahead of Network X Americas last month. Gabriel noted there has been a mindset shift among telcos about 6G from being “cautious” to “embracing it.” He said that the World Radiocommunication Conference next year (WRC-27) and the Summer Olympic Games in Los Angeles in 2028 will be important “checkpoints” for the anticipated early 2029 arrival of the 6G standards.
“[The LA Summer Olympics] is going to be an amazing opportunity for the U.S. ecosystem to showcase the potential of next-generation connectivity…It’s a chance to show how wireless can serve all the other industries there,” he added.
It will be important to watch for 3GPP’s September 2026 Madrid meeting output deliverables to get a sense of what functions and features might be in 6G RANs.
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The 6G core network architecture (such as signaling, network management, security, 6G specific features, and AI-native core architecture) will be defined in Release 21 Stage-2 (System & Architecture) scheduled to be completed in June 2028. Stage-3 (Protocol Specifications) is slated for December 2028 with ASN.1 & OpenAPI Freeze to be completed in March 2029.
Just as they did with IMT-2020 (5G), 3GPP will likely maintain exclusive development and control over all non-radio specifications for IMT-2030 (6G). Instead of formalizing them through ITU-T. 3GPP relies on its own Organizational Partners, e.g. ETSI and ATIS, to adopt the core network framework in their standards. 3GPP decided to bypass ITU-T for the 5G mobile core network, opting to develop 5G SA core network specs directly to ensure rapid, market-driven deployment.
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Addendum – 3GPP specs are NOT standards and have no legal standing:
What most, if not all, telecom trade publications (like this one) get completely wrong is that 3GPP does not produce standards, but specifications via their Releases. Those must be contributed, discussed, debated and approved by official SDOs like ITU-R and ETSI or other 3GPP members. In the case of 5G/IMT 2020, ATIS presented all 3GPP RIT/SRIT specifications as contributions to ITU-R WP5D. 3GPP decided NOT to liaise/contribute their 5G SA core network architecture specs to ITU-T, but ETSI rubber stamped them. It should also be noted that ITU-R WP 5D has sole responsibility for IMT 2030/6G Frequency Arrangements which will be done after 6G frequencies are agreed at the ITU World Radiocommunication Conference (WRC-27),which is scheduled to take place from October 18 to November 12, 2027, in Shanghai, China.
“The 3GPP Technical Specifications and Technical Reports have, in themselves, no legal standing. They only become “official” when transposed into corresponding publications of the Partner Organizations (or the national / regional standards body acting as publisher for the Partner). At this point, the specifications are referred to as UMTS within ETSI and FOMA within ARIB/TTC.”
https://portal.etsi.org/new3g/specs/publications_partners.htm
From Qualcomm:
“3GPP Organization – Fixing three common misconceptions: 3GPP develops technical specifications, not standards. This is a subtle, but important organizational clarification. 3GPP is an engineering organization that develops technical specifications. These technical specifications are then transposed into standards by the seven regional Standards Setting Organizations (SSOs) that form the 3GPP partnership.”
https://www.qualcomm.com/news/onq/2017/08/understanding-3gpp-starting-basics
The Partnership Project is not a legal entity but is a collaborative activity between the following recognized Standards Development Organizations (SDO):
- The Association of Radio Industries and Businesses (ARIB) – Japan
- The Alliance for Telecommunications Industry Solutions (ATIS) – US
- China Communications Standards Association (CCSA) – China
- The European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) – Europe
- Telecommunications Standards Development Society (TSDSI) – India
- Telecommunications Technology Association (TTA) – South Korea
- Telecommunication Technology Committee (TTC) – Japan
The Partnership Project is entitled the “THIRD GENERATION PARTNERSHIP PROJECT” and may be known by the acronym “3GPP.”
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References:
https://www.3gpp.org/news-events/3gpp-news/tsg112#:~:text=3GPP%20plenaries
https://www.3gpp.org/news-events/3gpp-news/rel21-timeline
https://6gfutures.substack.com/p/analysis-of-3gpp-ran-112-timeline
https://www.ericsson.com/en/blog/2026/6/6g-standardization-key-milestones-and-ran-decisions
https://www.3gpp.org/about-us/legal-matters
https://portal.etsi.org/new3g/specs/publications_partners.htm
https://www.lightreading.com/6g/it-s-official-6g-specs-are-set-for-early-2029
Roles of 3GPP and ITU-R WP 5D in the IMT 2030/6G standards process
ITU-R M.[IMT-2030.EVAL] & ITU-R M.[IMT-2030.SUBMISSION] reports: Evaluation & Submission Guidelines for 6G RIT/SRITs (6G)
IMT-2030 (“6G”) Minimum Technology Performance Requirements for Radio Interface Technologies
Comparing AI Native mode in 6G (IMT 2030) vs AI Overlay/Add-On status in 5G (IMT 2020)
Analysis: Nvidia’s rumored new 6G AI-RAN – likely features/functions and industry impact
ITU-R WP 5D Timeline for submission, evaluation process & consensus building for IMT-2030 (6G) RITs/SRITs
ITU-R WP 5D reports on: IMT-2030 (“6G”) Minimum Technology Performance Requirements; Evaluation Criteria & Methodology
AI wireless and fiber optic network technologies; IMT 2030 “native AI” concept
Highlights of 3GPP Stage 1 Workshop on IMT 2030 (6G) Use Cases
Should Peak Data Rates be specified for 5G (IMT 2020) and 6G (IMT 2030) networks?
GSMA Vision 2040 study identifies spectrum needs during the peak 6G era of 2035–2040
Highlights and Summary of the 2025 Brooklyn 6G Summit
NGMN: 6G Key Messages from a network operator point of view
Nokia and Rohde & Schwarz collaborate on AI-powered 6G receiver years before IMT 2030 RIT submissions to ITU-R WP5D
Verizon’s 6G Innovation Forum joins a crowded list of 6G efforts that may conflict with 3GPP and ITU-R IMT-2030 work
Nokia Bell Labs and KDDI Research partner for 6G energy efficiency and network resiliency
Deutsche Telekom: successful completion of the 6G-TakeOff project with “3D networks”
Market research firms Omdia and Dell’Oro: impact of 6G and AI investments on telcos
Qualcomm CEO: expect “pre-commercial” 6G devices by 2028
Ericsson and e& (UAE) sign MoU for 6G collaboration vs ITU-R IMT-2030 framework
Virtualization’s role in 5G Advanced (3GPP Release 18) and a proposed new hardware architecture
Ericsson’s June 2026 Mobility Report Highlights + AI impact on network traffic
Ericsson’s June 2026 Mobility report states that:
- 5G global subscriptions have now passed the 3 billion mark with the addition of 162 million in the first quarter of 2026.
- Half of the world’s mobile data traffic is now carried over 5G vs 48% at the end of 2025. It’s forecast to rise to 85% by the end of 2031.
- Mobile network data traffic growth exceeded expectations, at 22% between Q1 2025 and Q1 2026.
- Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) adoption is also growing, with around 70% of FWA service providers now offering the service over 5G.
- The number of commercial 5G SA network slicing offerings has increased from 65 to 84 in just 6 months.
- Cellular IoT connections are expected to approach 8 billion by the end of 2031
“With the upcoming transition to physical AI, traffic patterns will fundamentally shift as we move from centralized models in data centers to distributed, autonomous AI agents embedded across our device vehicles and cities, commonly connected by 5G,” said Ericsson CTO Erik Ekudden, in a statement accompanying the report.
“Mobile networks are no longer only about providing best-effort connectivity, they are becoming critical, intelligent infrastructure that meets diverse application needs, Reflecting part of this shift is the continued rise in new commercial service offerings based on 5G standalone network slicing and the number of communications service providers deploying 5G SA,” Ekudden said.
Image Credit: Ericsson
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Impact of Agentic AI workloads on network traffic:
The most critical engineering takeaway from the report is a profound asymmetry in data traffic growth, heavily driven by agentic AI workloads and user-generated content.
Key Insights:
- AI-driven applications – spanning smartphones, AI/AR smart glasses and autonomous vehicles – are inherently uplink heavy, generating continuous data streams that challenge traditional downlink-dominated traffic patterns.
- Uplink traffic growth is already outpacing downlink for many service providers, with field measurements indicating capacity constraints under peak load. Scenario modeling suggests that additional AI traffic will result in uplink traffic being three times higher in 2031 compared to 2025.
- Current networks are not dimensioned for sustained uplink demand, calling for a step change in design – from 5G software and hardware enhancements in the near term to 6G-native uplink innovations over the longer horizon.
- Traffic Inversion: Traditionally, cellular networks are architected and provisioned to handle heavily downlink-centric (DL) traffic patterns. However, the proliferation of multimodal generative AI and uplink-heavy applications is radically flipping this paradigm.
- Field Measurement Data: Out of 55 global operators analyzed, 43 experienced uplink (UL) growth rates outpaces DL growth. Crucially, 17 of those service providers reported UL expansion exceeding DL by a factor of 1.5x or higher.
- Projections: Ericsson’s scenario modeling suggests that cumulative AI-driven traffic could cause UL demands to spike threefold by 2031 compared to 2025 baselines.
- Near-Term: Immediate deployment of 5G RAN software optimizations and hardware refreshes. This includes pushing for 5G Standalone (SA) core migrations, leveraging AI-optimized Massive MIMO beamforming, and utilizing network slicing to guarantee bounded latency for critical UL channels.
- Long-Term: Transitioning to 6G-native uplink innovations. Early 6G standardization, targeted for finalization around 2028–2029, will focus deeply on AI-native architectures, Integrated Sensing and Communication (ISAC), and asymmetric air-interface designs natively optimized for continuous data streams.
Market Outlook:
Resolving these capacity constraints requires immediate, targeted infrastructure capital expenditure. While macro RAN spending has faced recent headwinds, the urgent necessity to re-dimension the air interface for an AI-centric world represents a powerful pipeline catalyst for Ericsson and its infrastructure rivals. Telco spending on RAN products has slumped from $45 billion in 2022 to $35 billion last year, according to analysts at Omdia, while Ericsson’s annual sales have dropped from SEK271.5 billion ($28.8 billion) to SEK236.7 billion ($25.1 billion) over this same period.
References:
https://www.ericsson.com/en/reports-and-papers/mobility-report/reports/june-2026
GSA: Global private mobile networks exceed 2,000 worldwide; Ericsson Private 5G from Verizon Business extends beyond U.S.
Ericsson reports 10% drop in 1st quarter sales; targets network growth
AT&T and Ericsson boost Cloud RAN performance with AI-native software running on Intel Xeon 6 SoC
Ericsson and Intel collaborate to accelerate AI-Native 6G; other AI-Native 6G advancements at MWC 2026
Ericsson goes with custom silicon (rather than Nvidia GPUs) for AI RAN
Nokia to showcase agentic AI network slicing; Ericsson partners with Ookla to measure 5G network slicing performance
China’s telecom industry rapid growth in 2025 eludes Nokia and Ericsson as sales collapse
Latest Ericsson Mobility Report talks up 5G SA networks and FWA
Ericsson Mobility Report touts “5G SA opportunities”
GSA: Global private mobile networks exceed 2,000 worldwide; Ericsson Private 5G from Verizon Business extends beyond U.S.
The number of worldwide private mobile networks that are worth more than €100,000 exceeds 2,000, according to the Global mobile Suppliers Association (GSA). Demand is being driven by the growing data, security, digitization and mobility requirements of modern enterprise and government entities. GSA said that at the end of 1Q2026, it had identified 2,003 organizations in 88 countries worldwide that had deployed one or more private mobile networks. The private mobile networks it counted had contract values of more than €100,000 (~$116,000). A further 178 private mobile networks are worth between €50,000 and €100,000, GSA said.
4G-LTE remains the dominant technology, accounting for 1,369 of the customers catalogued by the GSA, but 5G is inching up; 5G is deployed in 974 of the networks, often in conjunction with LTE, but 5G-only networks increased by one percentage point on Q4 2025 to account for 30.3% of customers. GSA said that 76% of the references are non-public and unique. Some industries are cagier than others– in sectors like military and defense, maritime, and the power plants space more than 80% of references are not in the public domain.
Image Source: GSA
Although the proportion of 5G only deployments makes up a significant number of references (30.3%), it must be noted that this number skews toward long-term trials and deployments within educational and test-bed or validation facilities, with a limited number running real operation in industrial situations.
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The top five markets are currently the US, Germany, the UK, China and Japan, but those markets were exceeded in growth terms in the first quarter of 2026 by another market in the top 10; Canada saw the number of customers of private mobile networks grow by 5% in Q1. The UK had the next-highest growth rate at 4%, followed by the US at 2% and Germany at 1%.
China is often reported to have a high number of private networks at more than 40,000, the GSA said. But it believes that many of those networks actually use public mobile networks and therefore do not meet its definition for inclusion in its report.
“As the report clearly shows, a large number and varied range of market participants are actively engaged in developing and delivering solutions for private mobile networks,” said GSA president Joe Barrett, in a statement accompanying the group’s latest Private Mobile Networks publication.
“With so much opportunity, and so many regulators planning initiatives to make spectrum available for LTE and 5G private usage, we expect significant market developments over the next couple of years,” Barrett said. Naturally, there is a strong correlation between the number of private mobile networks in a country and the availability of dedicated spectrum there. In addition, private mobile network deployments are mainly in high-income and upper-middle-income countries, according to the GSA.
The GSA did not specifically mention the high-income Middle Eastern markets in its report summary, but it’s probably safe to assume that countries like Oman will help to drive growth going forward. Port of Salalah in the south of Oman announced the launch of the country’s first fully managed private 5G network in partnership with incumbent telecoms operator Omantel. The network will support automation and accelerate the port’s digital transformation, boosting the efficiency of its logistics operations, it said. And both parties indicated that they expect the deal to kick-start the wider use of private enterprise 5G networks in Oman, looking specifically at ports, logistics and industry.
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Ericsson Private 5G is now available through Verizon Business beyond U.S. borders. It’s targeted at global enterprises already using Ericsson technology in Verizon Business Private 5G Networks in the U.S., allowing them to extend it to international campuses. It offers a dual mode 4G and 5G network with global spectrum support
“Verizon Business can offer more optionality and flexibility to its private wireless customers who operate across international borders,” states the press release.
Hannes Ekström, Senior Vice President and Head of Customer Unit Verizon, Ericsson Americas, says: “Enterprises are rapidly embracing digital transformation, leveraging secure and high-performing private 5G networks as a key driver of innovation and efficiency. Our multinational customers in the U.S. have already unlocked significant growth through 5G-enabled private networks, and now they seek to replicate this success globally.”
“Through our collaboration with Verizon, we are expanding the reach of our Ericsson Private 5G solution to support Verizon Business’s international deployments, enabling seamless global operations. By simplifying 5G adoption and enhancing reliability, low latency, and security, we are empowering industries to harness next-generation connectivity and drive innovation on a global scale.”
“Verizon Business is proud of our expanding private wireless portfolio, and we’re committed to providing the best possible private wireless experience to our customers around the world,” said Robb Juliano, Vice President of 5G Acceleration, Verizon Business. “By extending the availability of Ericsson Private 5G outside of the U.S., we’re offering enterprises more flexibility in driving innovation, enhancing security, and optimizing operations with private wireless networks on a global scale.”
References:
https://gsacom.com/technology/private-mobile-networks/
https://gsacom.com/paper/private-mobile-networks-june-2026/
https://www.telecoms.com/5g-6g/private-mobile-networks-exceed-2-000-worldwide
https://www.ericsson.com/en/press-releases/2026/6/ericsson-private-5g-for-verizon-business
Private 5G networks move to include automation, autonomous systems, edge computing & AI operations
SNS Telecom & IT: Private 5G Market Nears Mainstream With $5 Billion Surge
SNS Telecom & IT: Private LTE & 5G Network Ecosystem – CAGR 22% from 2025-2030
SNS Telecom & IT: Mission-Critical Networks a $9.2 Billion Market
Verizon partners with Nokia to deploy large private 5G network in the UK
SNS Telecom & IT: Private 5G and 4G LTE cellular networks for the global defense sector are a $1.5B opportunity
HPE Aruba Launches “Cloud Native” Private 5G Network with 4G/5G Small Cell Radios
SNS Telecom & IT: Private 5G Network market annual spending will be $3.5 Billion by 2027
SNS Telecom & IT: Private 5G and 4G LTE cellular networks for the global defense sector are a $1.5B opportunity
Ericsson integrates Agentic AI into its NetCloud platform for self healing and autonomous 5G private networks
Dell’Oro: 6G RAN Capex to reach $500 billion by 2034 + Counterpoint
Dell’Oro Report Summary:
According to a recent Dell’Oro Group report, global telecom operators will spend $500 billion on 6G infrastructure over the next decade. During that same period, the overall network equipment market is projected to grow at just a 1% CAGR. Telco revenues are expected to grow at 3% over the next decade. The report’s base-case scenario envisions 6G as an evolutionary technology that builds on Massive MIMO, the existing site grid, and wider channel bandwidths to deliver step-change improvements in RAN economics.
“While the G decoupling movement is gaining momentum for all the right reasons, the most likely scenario is still that 6G will be another G, with 6G RAN capex expected to accelerate toward the end of the decade,” said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President of RAN and Telecom Capex Research at Dell’Oro Group. “At the same time, operators are in a much stronger position today from a network capacity perspective than they were during the transition from 4G to 5G. As a result, cumulative 6G RAN revenue during the first six years of the cycle is projected to be 10 to 20 percent lower than during the comparable period of the 5G cycle.”
Additional highlights from the June 2026 6G Advanced Research Report include:
- 6G RAN is expected to scale rapidly, with cumulative RAN revenue and wireless capex during the first six years projected to exceed $100 B and $500 B, respectively.
- 6G is not expected to expand the overall RAN market. Instead, the baseline scenario projects the broader RAN market to grow at a 1 percent CAGR between 2030 and 2034.
- Both Sub-7 GHz and cmWave spectrum bands are expected to play important roles in 6G deployments, although momentum behind spectrum above 7 GHz continues to build.
- Cumulative 6G RAN investments between 2029 and 2034 are projected to account for approximately half of total RAN capex during the same forecast period.
Dell’Oro Group’s 6G Advanced Research Report offers an overview of the RAN market, including tables showing total RAN revenue by technology (2G-6G) from 2000 to 2034. 6G RAN is analyzed by spectrum (Sub-7 GHz, cmWave, mmWave), by Massive MIMO, by RF Power (Macro, Micro, Pico), and by region (North America, Europe, Middle East and Africa, China, Asia Pacific Excl. China, and CALA). To purchase this report, please contact us by email at [email protected].
Editor’s Counterpoint:
We don’t agree with Stefan’s statement that “6G RAN is expected to scale rapidly,” based on the delays and failures of ITU-R’s IMT 2020 (5G) standards and 3GPPs 5G SA core network specifications.
A phased ramp-up is more likely, as early commercial launches begin at the end of 2030 and early 2031. Then slower scaling through the early 2030s as spectrum, devices, infrastructure, and business cases mature.
At this point in time, we have no idea what the IMT 2030 RIT/SRITs will be or 3GPPs 6G SA Core network functionality. ITU WP5D’s IMT-2030 work is still setting requirements and evaluation criteria, and candidate RIT submissions are only expected in the 2027–2029 window. The ITU-R also says the technical performance requirements are minimum levels for consideration and do not guarantee real-world deployment performance. That’s similar to IMT 2020/5G RITs, where ITU-R M.2410 report: minimum performance requirements were NOT met for URLLC – ultra high reliability or ultra low latency (1ms in the data plane; 10ms in the control plane).
In other words, approval creates the foundation, not instant scale. That points to a 6G RAN standards process that finishes just as first deployments begin, not one that guarantees immediate mass rollout.
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3GPP Release 20 (2025–2026): Early 6G studies focused on requirements/architecture
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3GPP Release 21 (2027–2028): First concrete 6G specifications, core radio/network framework
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3GPP 6G functional freeze: December 2028
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ITU-R IMT-2030 formal approval: December 2026 for technical performance requirements; full RIT/SRIT approval late 2030–early 2031.
This timeline confirms the Counterpoint’s “standards finish just as first deployments begin” concern—there’s no guarantee of immediate mass rollout. Furthermore, 6G SA has not yet been defined while 5G SA is still rolling out in 2026 – six years after 5G NR specs and IMT 2020 RIT standards were completed. Therefore, the 2030-2031 6G commercial launch assumption is optimistic for many markets.
What’s needed by 2030: globally harmonized work, spectrum studies across low, mid, mmWave, and sub-THz bands, and network operator/vendor roadmaps. Once those crystalize they could support fast 6G uptake in premium pockets such as dense urban zones, enterprise campuses, and fixed wireless/edge-centric use cases where the economics are strongest. That means “rapid” is plausible in targeted launches, not across entire national footprints.
6G will likely face the same structural constraints that slowed 5G: spectrum availability, device ecosystems, deployment costs, and the need to integrate with 5G-Advanced during the transition time period. Higher-band operation, especially above 100 GHz, is technically feasible but still requires mature propagation, hardware, and deployment architectures before it can scale widely. The result is usually a long coexistence period where 5G remains the coverage layer while 6G expands selectively.
The likely pattern is “launch first, scale later,” with meaningful expansion depending more on spectrum policy, device availability, and operator ROI than on the standard approval itself.
Deployment timeline:
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2026–2027: Standards and requirements work intensifies, with 3GPP/ITU alignment still being shaped and operators pushing for realistic deployment timelines.
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2028–2029: Pre-commercial and early pilot networks appear, especially in dense urban, enterprise, and testbed environments.
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2030: First commercial 6G launches are widely expected by the end of 2030, but these will be selective rather than universal.
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2031–2033: Main capex ramp and larger-scale rollout window, as more of the macro grid, transport, and edge layers are upgraded.
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2034 and beyond: Broader geographic expansion and more mature multi-band coverage, with 6G taking on a larger share of traffic and enterprise use cases.
6G Capex Outlook:
Dell’Oro’s view that the 6G capex ramp starts around the end of 2030 (we think it will be 2031), while cumulative 6G RAN investment in 2029–2034 could account for 55% to 60% of total RAN capex in that period. A separate data-driven forecast argues global 6G capex could land somewhere in the sub-$1 trillion to about $1.5 trillion range over a decade, depending on traffic growth and spec assumptions. That is a wide band, but it is consistent with a technology transition that reuses much of the existing macro grid rather than replacing everything at once.
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Sebastian Barros wrote:
6G will deliver necessary operational improvements. It will utilize new 7GHz spectrum, improve radio performance, and lower the cost per bit for operators still recovering from the 5G capex hangover. However, consumers and enterprises do not pay a premium for faster pipes. Connectivity is now a hyper-commoditized utility.
If Telcos want to capture value in this new economy, they must stop defining their core business as “connectivity.” Telecom is a distribution business.
Networks serve as the last-mile delivery system for the global economy. In the past, the industry distributed voice, SMS, and 8K video. Today, the asset being distributed is intelligence. Hyperscalers are building massive, centralized AI data centers, but that compute power requires a physical delivery mechanism to reach users.
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References:
Current 6G Trajectory is Evolutionary, According to Dell’Oro Group
Dell’Oro: RAN Market Stabilized in 2025 with 1% CAG forecast over next 5 years; Opinion on AI RAN, 5G Advanced, 6G RAN/Core risks
Market research firms Omdia and Dell’Oro: impact of 6G and AI investments on telcos
ABI Research: 6G Radio Installed Base by Region from 2029 to 2034
GSMA Vision 2040 study identifies spectrum needs during the peak 6G era of 2035–2040
Ookla: AI platform reliability decreases as outages surge
So you thought “AI Hallucinations” were the only big problem with AI performance? Think again! In a new Ookla reliability report, data from its Downdetector reveals that AI platform outages surged from 6 high-disruption days in Q1 2025 to 51 in Q1 2026 , as AI tools transitioned from novelties to critical business infrastructure. These disruptions stem from rapid scale-up volatility, cloud provider failures, and complex, agentic workflows. Analysing 471 days of US Downdetector data from 1 January 2025 to 16 April 2026 across ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Microsoft Copilot, AWS and Microsoft Azure, Ookla recorded 3.7 million user-reported problems.
High-signal disruption days, defined as when a service recorded more than 10 times its own median daily report volume, rose from six across four major AI apps in Q1 2025 to 51 in Q1 2026, according to the report by Ookla analyst Luke Kehoe.
Anthropic’s Claude model accounted for 39 of those 51 disruption days. Gemini accounted for seven, Copilot three and ChatGPT two. Here’s a summary:
- Claude: Anthropic’s platform was the clearest example of scale-up volatility, accounting for 39 of the 51 high-signal disruption days in early 2026 due to rapid adoption and scaling.
- ChatGPT: While it generated some of the largest raw disruption spikes—often linked to model updates or demand surges—its median daily report trend improved compared to the prior year.
- Microsoft Copilot: Outage reports heavily clustered on weekdays, reflecting its core integration into enterprise business workflows rather than consumer use.
- Gemini: Incidents rose to seven alongside expanding user adoption.
- Cloud Infrastructure: A significant portion of AI downtime wasn’t the AI model itself, but outages at the cloud level that caused cascading failures. AWS’s 20 October 2025 DynamoDB DNS event generated more than 315,000 US disruption reports, while Microsoft’s Azure Front Door incident on 29 October produced nearly 96,000, illustrating how failures in cloud control planes can cascade into AI platform disruptions.
Claude’s growth over the past 12 months was accompanied by significant disruption. Ookla describes it as “the clearest example of scale-up volatility,” with disruptions to its offering starting to move the needle in July last year as adoption rose. There’s a hint that the upward trajectory will continue – Ookla notes that at 2,830 daily reports on average, Claude’s report volume in March was three times that it recorded in February.
AI reliability now spans multiple failure layers:
AI platforms are not single systems from the user’s point of view, even when they present a single interface. A ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, or Copilot failure can sit in the product layer, the provider orchestration layer, the hyperscaler layer, or the edge and access layer. The product layer is what users actually see. The provider orchestration layer includes login, routing, model selection, rate limits, feature flags, inference scheduling, retry behavior, and capacity allocation. The hyperscaler layer includes compute, databases, storage, networking, and regional control planes. The edge and access layer includes DNS, web gateways, bot protection, content delivery, and authentication flows.
Ookla’s Kehoe wrote, “As AI systems move from short chat sessions into longer-running agentic tasks, a failed prompt, login loop, stalled code task, unavailable file, or broken connector can interrupt work that now sits inside real business processes.” This is a very serious concern!
Those layers are not always owned by different companies, and they are not the full physical internet stack. Network operators, subsea cables, data centers, and user access networks still matter. The focus here is narrower: the service and dependency layers that are most visible in Downdetector data and public incident records.
This distinction is important because the same user-facing symptom can have different operational meanings. A failed prompt, login loop, missing chat history, rate-limit error, unavailable file, or stalled agent task may not share the same root cause. For enterprise buyers and risk teams, resilience is about understanding more than whether an AI platform was simply available. They need to know where the issue occurred, which workflows were affected, and whether it reflected a problem with a single provider or a broader dependency across the AI stack.
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References:
https://www.ookla.com/articles/ai-platform-reliability
https://www.mobileworldlive.com/ai-cloud/ookla-finds-ai-platform-outages-surge-as-adoption-grows
https://www.telecoms.com/ai/ai-app-disruption-is-on-the-up
Will 2026 be the “Year of the AI Ontology” for telecoms?
Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTN) Tutorial: Architecture, Spectrum, and Technical Foundations
by Paresh Panchal, Principal Engineer – Charter Communications
Abstract:
Several Non-Terrestrial Network (NTN) related articles have appeared on the IEEE ComSoc Techblog over the past year. They include: Alan J Weissberger’s market overview (December 2025), the Keysight/Samsung frequency band n252 demonstration (January 2026), the Telecoms.com survey summary (July 2025), and the enterprise IoT hybrid-network article (January 2026). These contributions provide useful market context and early deployment perspective, but they do not fully address the engineering considerations that determine how an NTN system is actually designed, dimensioned, and deployed.
Importantly, they do not examine the 3GPP Release 18 NTN architecture options (A1–A4), which define key implementation choices for operator and satellite network integration. They also do not analyze NTN band planning and its regulatory variability across CEPT and FCC jurisdictions, or the propagation-delay effects that must be accounted for in HARQ timing, scheduling, and other RAN procedures. These issues are central to practical deployment planning and to the selection of an appropriate NTN architecture for a given use case.
This article fills that gap by providing a practitioner-oriented technical reference that complements the existing market-level coverage with engineering detail, e.g. NTN deployment options, spectrum applicability, and protocol-level implications. It is intended to serve as a practical guide for engineers and network planners assessing NTN architecture, spectrum strategy, and protocol behavior in real deployment scenarios.
Read my article at https://wireless-vector.com/ntn-article
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About the Author:
Paresh is a wireless communications professional with deep expertise in RAN systems and architecture, network design, performance engineering, and network analytics. He’s been an active contributor to radio access network innovation with deep expertise in 5G/4G/CBRS RF design and optimization, specializing in cloud-native and O-RAN environments. Proven track record across multi-vendor, multi-country engagements covering greenfield and commercial networks. Core competencies span RF network modeling, performance analytics, and cross-functional program execution. Inventor with 25+ patent applications in radio network technologies.
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References:
Non-Terrestrial Networks (NTNs): market, specifications & standards in 3GPP and ITU-R
Ookla: Starlink a viable competitor for hybrid 5G/NTN services due to network performance improvements and larger coverage area
Keysight Technologies Demonstrates 3GPP Rel-19 NR-NTN Connectivity in Band n252 (using Samsung modem chip set)
Telecoms.com’s survey: 5G NTNs to highlight service reliability and network redundancy
ITU-R recommendation IMT-2020-SAT.SPECS from ITU-R WP 5B to be based on 3GPP 5G NR-NTN and IoT-NTN (from Release 17 & 18)
China ITU filing to put ~200K satellites in low earth orbit while FCC authorizes 7.5K additional Starlink LEO satellites
Samsung announces 5G NTN modem technology for Exynos chip set; Omnispace and Ligado Networks MoU
Analysis and Implications of Deutsche Telekom’s potential full acquisition of T-Mobile
Deutsche Telekom is Europe’s largest telecommunications carrier with 273 million mobile customers in 50 countries. The German telco is reportedly considering a move to take full ownership of T-Mobile US by raising its stake from roughly 54% to 100%, thereby converting the publicly traded U.S. carrier into a wholly owned subsidiary. This potential merger/acquisition would represent a significant strategic and corporate restructuring within the global telecommunications landscape and would mark the consolidation of one of the largest wireless operators under a single parent entity.
During his 12-year tenure as Deutsche Telekom’s CEO Tim Höttges has helped turn T-Mobile from a money-losing underdog to the world’s most valuable telecom brand by market capitalization. Höttges has invested billions in T-Mobile’s U.S. infrastructure to support its 5G fixed-wireless home-internet product. T-Mobile contributes nearly two-thirds of Deutsche Telekom’s revenue.
Analysts say T-Mobile is currently constrained on large deals: Its high leverage makes borrowing expensive, and it can’t issue stock without diluting its German parent’s stake. By combining Deutsche Telekom and T-Mobile into a single $300 billion behemoth, the company would likely be able to raise debt at a lower cost, among other benefits. T-Mobile has been buying fiber-internet operators in the U.S. to compete with AT&T and Verizon and offer bundled wireless and home internet to more customers.
Deutsche Telekom CEO Höttges addressing shareholders at the firm’s annual meeting in April. Oliver Berg/
From a corporate strategy perspective, full ownership would provide Deutsche Telekom with complete control over T-Mobile US’s capital allocation, operational priorities, and long-term network investment strategy. Currently, while Deutsche Telekom exercises effective control through its majority stake, a 100% acquisition would eliminate minority shareholders, simplify governance structures, and allow the parent company to internalize the full economic value generated by T-Mobile US’s operations. This could be particularly relevant as the U.S. market continues to drive substantial cash flow and growth relative to Deutsche Telekom’s European operations.
The transaction would also have implications for corporate structure and financial reporting. Full ownership would enable Deutsche Telekom to restructure T-Mobile US within its corporate hierarchy, potentially integrating it more closely with other group entities or aligning its financial reporting more directly with parent-company objectives. Such consolidation could improve transparency for investors and reduce the complexity associated with managing a majority-owned public subsidiary.
However, executing a deal of this magnitude would present substantial challenges. The transaction would likely require extensive regulatory review in both the United States and Europe, including scrutiny from the Federal Communications Commission, the Department of Justice, and European competition authorities. Valuation would be a critical consideration, given T-Mobile US’s market position as the second-largest wireless carrier in the United States and its ongoing investments in 5G infrastructure, network modernization, and enterprise services. Financing the acquisition would also require careful consideration of debt levels, capital structure, and the impact on Deutsche Telekom’s balance sheet.
From a market perspective, the potential merger could be viewed as a consolidation move that reflects the increasing importance of the U.S. wireless market in global telecommunications strategy. T-Mobile US has emerged as a competitive leader in recent years, with strong performance in 5G deployment, spectrum efficiency, and customer acquisition. Full ownership would enable Deutsche Telekom to align these strengths more closely with its broader global strategy, potentially accelerating technology transfer, network architecture harmonization, and cross-border service integration.
Höttges has also put billions into expanding the German network, where fiber-internet subscribers have nearly tripled since 2023. He champions a cause popular with European regulators: tech sovereignty, or reducing reliance on American and Chinese technology. In February Deutsche Telekom opened Germany’s first AI gigafactory, a massive data center. The gigafactory uses AI GPU chips from Nvidia, which is of course an American company, based in Santa Clara, CA.
The CEO plans to retire at the end of 2028 and wants the right successor to be found first, said people familiar with the matter. He said on the German “OMR” podcast that his successor will need a different skill set. Artificial intelligence (AI) is overhauling the workforce and automating next-generation networks, transforming the industry at an astonishing pace. “Back then, a sober numbers guy was the right choice,” he said. “Today, I believe we need a visionary who understands the future architecture of modern infrastructure.”
In summary, Deutsche Telekom’s reported interest in acquiring full ownership of T-Mobile US represents a significant strategic consideration that would consolidate corporate control, simplify governance, and potentially enhance the parent company’s ability to capture the full financial benefits of its U.S. operations. While the strategic rationale is compelling, the transaction would entail substantial regulatory, financing, and valuation complexities that would need to be carefully addressed before any definitive agreement could be reached.
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References:
https://www.telekom.com/en/company/companyprofile/company-profile-625808
https://www.wsj.com/business/telecom/t-mobile-deutsche-telekom-merger-4fdc8eba
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/deutsche-telekom-wants-whole-t-143743459.html
https://www.telekom.com/en/company/companyprofile/company-profile-625808
Analysis: OpenAI and Deutsche Telekom launch multi-year AI collaboration
Deutsche Telekom: successful completion of the 6G-TakeOff project with “3D networks”
Deutsche Telekom selects Iridium for NB-IoT direct-to-device (D2D) connectivity
Deutsche Telekom and Google Cloud partner on “RAN Guardian” AI agent
Deutsche Telekom offers 5G mmWave for industrial customers in Germany on 5G SA network
Deutsche Telekom migrates IP-based voice telephony platform to the cloud
Deutsche Telekom Network Day: Fiber, Mobile Network, Open RAN and 5G SA Launch in 2024
SK Telecom and Deutsche Telekom to Jointly Develop Telco-specific Large Language Models (LLMs)
Deutsche Telekom with AWS and VMware demonstrate a global enterprise network for seamless connectivity across geographically distributed data centers
T-Mobile expands FTTH footprint via 50-50 JVs with Oak Hill Capital and Wren House
T-Mobile US announces new broadband wireless and fiber targets, 5G-A with agentic AI and live voice call translation
Highlights of 2025 Broadband Nation Expo: Comcast, T-Mobile keynotes + selected quotes
AT&T deploys nationwide 5G SA while Verizon lags and T-Mobile leads
T-Mobile’s new CEO Srini Gopalan faces fierce competition from AT&T, Verizon and MVNOs
T-Mobile’s growth trajectory increases: 5G FWA, Metronet acquisition and MVNO deals with Charter & Comcast
Evercore: T-Mobile’s fiber business to boost revenue and achieve 40% penetration rate after 2 years
WSJ: T-Mobile hacked by cyber-espionage group linked to Chinese Intelligence agency
T-Mobile posts impressive wireless growth stats in 2Q-2024; fiber optic network acquisition binge to complement its FWA business
Dell’Oro: 2H2026 Data Center Capex to Accelerate due to massive AI Deployments
Dell’Oro Group has raised its worldwide data center capex outlook for 2026 as hyperscale AI deployments accelerated, complemented by continued investments in general-purpose infrastructure and rising component costs.
“Rising memory and storage pricing substantially increased overall server system costs in the quarter and will likely remain a major capex growth factor this year,” said Baron Fung, Senior Research Director at Dell’Oro Group. “At the same time, AI infrastructure deployments continue to accelerate rapidly, while hyperscalers also expanded general-purpose infrastructure to support public cloud growth, agentic AI workloads, and rising AI-related storage requirements.
“Despite exceptionally strong spending growth in 1H2026, capex growth is expected to accelerate further in 2H26, driven by the ramp of NVIDIA Rubin systems and refresh cycles for hyperscaler custom accelerator platforms. Beyond hyperscalers, select enterprise verticals and sovereign cloud providers are increasing AI infrastructure adoption, though growth remains constrained by uncertain returns and infrastructure readiness. While near-term demand remains healthy, some spending may have been pulled forward ahead of expected price increases later this year,” explained Fung.
Additional highlights from the 1Q 2026 Data Center IT Capex Quarterly Report:
- The global data center capex outlook was raised to more than $1 trillion for 2026.
- The Top 4 U.S. cloud providers—Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft—increased data center capex by 78%.
- Dell led server OEM revenue in the quarter, followed by SuperMicro and Lenovo, while white-box vendors serving the hyperscale market accounted for the majority of server revenue. Nearly all server vendors benefited from higher memory-driven system pricing.
Image Credit: Futurum Group
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Dell’Oro Group’s Data Center IT Capex Quarterly Report details the data center infrastructure capital expenditures of each of the ten largest Cloud service providers, as well as the Rest-of-Cloud, Telco, and Enterprise customer segments. Allocation of the data center infrastructure capex for general-purpose and accelerated servers, storage systems, and other auxiliary data center equipment is provided. The report also discusses market trends, drivers of the leading Cloud service providers’ capex growth during the quarter, and the outlook for the next year. To purchase this report, please contact us at [email protected].
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Perplexity.ai generated- June 2026 forecast:
Approximately 75% of hyperscaler capex in 2026 is for AI infrastructure (~$450 billion).
Key Drivers of the Forecast Increase:
Additional Secondary Factors:
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NVIDIA Rubin system ramp: Capex growth expected to accelerate further in 2H26 driven by Rubin system ramp
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Hyperscaler custom accelerator refresh cycles: Refresh cycles for custom accelerator platforms will drive 2H26 growth
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Enterprise verticals & sovereign cloud adoption: Select enterprise verticals and sovereign cloud providers increasing AI infrastructure adoption
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Pulled-forward spending: Some spending pulled forward ahead of expected price increases later in 2026
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References:
https://futurumgroup.com/insights/ai-capex-2026-the-690b-infrastructure-sprint/
https://know.creditsights.com/insights/technology-hyperscaler-capex-2026-estimates/
Nvidia CEO Huang: AI is the largest infrastructure buildout in human history; AI Data Center CAPEX will generate new revenue streams for operators
Will Google Cloud’s AI and data analytics revenue +TPU IP licensing income offset huge AI CAPEX to produce a decent ROI?
Alphabet’s 2026 capex forecast soars; Gemini 3 AI model is a huge success
Hyperscaler capex > $600 bn in 2026 a 36% increase over 2025 while global spending on cloud infrastructure services skyrockets
Big tech spending on AI data centers and infrastructure vs the fiber optic buildout during the dot-com boom (& bust)
Gartner: AI spending >$2 trillion in 2026 driven by hyperscalers data center investments
Will billions of dollars big tech is spending on Gen AI data centers produce a decent ROI?
ABI Research: 6G Radio Installed Base by Region from 2029 to 2034
According to ABI Research, fewer than 0.35 million 6G-supported radios are expected to be deployed worldwide at the end of 2029. That’s understandable, because those “6G radios” will be pre-standard deployments. The IMT 2030 Radio Interface Technology (RIT) standards won’t be completed till the end of 2030!
By 2034, around 7.2 million 6G radios will have been deployed, as per the market research firm’s forecast. The Asia-Pacific region (4 million deployments by 2034) will likely see the first major global deployment of this new generation of radio equipment. North America (1.2 million deployments by 2034) and Europe (940K deployments by 2034) will also see significant deployments once telecom operators complete their own transition from 5G densification to 6G expansion.
6G deployments are forecast to start low, due to continuing ITU-R standards/3GPP specifications work and early network operator caution, with rapid growth after 2031 to 2032 as mobile operators complete their overall first phase of 6G deployments and more operators gain confidence for scaled rollouts.
ABI is treating 6G as a multi-layer infrastructure market: not just spectrum and radios, but also core evolution, advanced antenna systems, and sensing/AI convergence. In practice, that means the report should help answer questions like where to target product planning, how regional adoption may diverge, and which infrastructure subsegments could capture early 6G spend.
ABI’s broader 5G/6G research service also emphasizes spectrum and infrastructure planning, advanced antenna systems, and Open RAN-adjacent market intelligence, which fits the framing of this 6G report as part of a wider network infrastructure portfolio.
References:
https://www.abiresearch.com/news-resources/chart-data/6g-radios-installed-base-forecast
Analysis: Nvidia’s rumored new 6G AI-RAN – likely features/functions and industry impact
Comparing AI Native mode in 6G (IMT 2030) vs AI Overlay/Add-On status in 5G (IMT 2020)
Roles of 3GPP and ITU-R WP 5D in the IMT 2030/6G standards process
NVIDIA and global telecom leaders to build 6G on open and secure AI-native platforms + Linux Foundation launches OCUDU
AI wireless and fiber optic network technologies; IMT 2030 “native AI” concept
Analysis: Nvidia’s rumored new 6G AI-RAN – likely features/functions and industry impact
Executive Summary:
According to Light Reading, Nvidia is working on a GPU combo chip that would sit directly in the 6G radio unit [1.], extending its AI-RAN push from baseband/server into the radio itself. It’s reported to be a more hardware-integrated, sub-100W embedded design rather than just GPU acceleration in centralized RAN compute.
Note 1. 6G/IMT 2030 Radio Interface Technologies (RITs) have yet to be defined, let alone specified by 3GPP or ITU-R WP5D. They won’t be solidified until the end of 2030 so any specific silicon design won’t be completed until then or 2031!
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Light Reading’s headline frames it as a “radical new AI-RAN plan and they wrote that “the move was confirmed by knowledgeable sources, with Nvidia saying GPUs in more advanced radios will become “essential” in future. It marks a dramatic new development in the GPU giant’s “AI-RAN” strategy.”
If accurate, this would be a notable shift for Nvidia, because it would let them influence the whole RAN stack, not just centralized compute. That could matter for performance, power efficiency, and AI-native functions such as sensing, spectrum optimization, and real-time signal processing. Nvidia’s broader 6G messaging already emphasizes AI-native wireless, integrated sensing and communications, and spectrum agility as core themes.
The unconfirmed report fits Nvidia’s existing telecom roadmap rather than appearing out of nowhere. Nvidia has already announced an AI-native wireless stack for 6G with partners including Cisco, MITRE, Booz Allen, ODC, and T-Mobile, and it has promoted AI-RAN as a way to combine connectivity, computing, and sensing on one platform. It also aligns with the company’s recent partnership with Nokia, where Nvidia introduced the ARC-Pro 6G-ready accelerated computing platform and described it as a software-upgradable path from 5G-Advanced to 6G. That makes the rumored radio-chip move look like a vertical extension of the same strategy.
For wireless network operators, a radio-unit chip from Nvidia would be significant only if it improves cost, power, or flexibility versus incumbent RU silicon. The practical test will be whether it can deliver enough RF, baseband, and AI function integration to justify another architecture layer at the edge. It would also intensify competition in the radio-access supply chain and reinforce the trend toward AI-native, software-defined RANs. It also suggests Nvidia wants to shape not only the compute layer but the physical radio layer of 6G networks.
Possible AI Silicon Features and Functions:
Nvidia would most likely add AI-for-RAN features into radio silicon first, because those map directly to signal processing and link adaptation rather than to generic “AI at the edge.” Nvidia’s own AI-RAN materials emphasize embedding AI/ML into the radio signal-processing layer to improve spectral efficiency, coverage, capacity, and performance. Here are a few likely AI features/functions for the rumored 6G AI Nvidia super chip:
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Neural channel estimation and equalization, to infer cleaner channel state from noisy RF observations and improve link reliability. Nvidia’s open-source Aerial release specifically calls out advanced neural models for channel estimation.
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Real-time beam management, including beam selection, beam tracking, and beam refinement for massive MIMO and mmWave/upper-midband deployments. These are natural AI-RAN use cases because they depend on fast adaptation to changing propagation conditions.
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Spectrum agility and interference mitigation, such as identifying jammed or congested resource blocks and dynamically avoiding them. NVIDIA and partners have already described spectrum agility applications that freeze only affected frequencies while keeping the rest of the system online.
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Dynamic resource scheduling, using learned traffic and channel patterns to allocate PRBs, power, and compute more efficiently in real time. Nvidia describes AI-RAN as improving spectral efficiency and dynamic traffic handling through AI.
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Integrated sensing and communications support, where the radio helps detect objects, motion, or environmental context in parallel with communication. Nvidia has already highlighted ISAC-style applications with camera/RF fusion and object tracking.
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Edge inference hooks, letting the RU expose real-time PHY data to AI applications or a dApp-style framework. Nvidia’s open-source Aerial stack says third-party apps can access physical-layer data through secure APIs and modify RAN behavior in real time.
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Self-optimization and closed-loop control, where the radio silicon learns local conditions and continuously retunes thresholds, coding, MCS selection, and precoding policies. That fits Nvidia’s broader framing of AI-native networks as software-defined and continuously adaptable.
The most plausible first wave is not a fully autonomous “AI radio,” but a hybrid RU chip that accelerates selected PHY functions and exposes telemetry/data paths to the rest of the AI-RAN stack. Nvidia’s current messaging emphasizes software-defined infrastructure, deterministic performance, and layered AI-RAN capabilities rather than replacing the entire RAN with a black-box model.
The real differentiator would be whether Nvidia can combine RF signal processing with its GPU/CUDA ecosystem, so the same platform handles channel learning, inference, and orchestration across RU/DU/CU tiers. That would let operators optimize for spectral efficiency and OPEX while still keeping a software-upgrade path to 6G. Radio electronics is constrained by power, latency, determinism, and certification, so Nvidia would need to prove these AI features help without destabilizing PHY timing. That is why the likely starting point is assistive AI inside the signal chain, not a fully learned end-to-end radio.
Image Credit: Nvidia
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Competitive Analysis:
Nvidia’s reported move into a 6G radio-unit chip is most threatening to Marvell and Qualcomm at the silicon layer, while it is more of a strategic architecture challenge to Nokia and Ericsson at the system level. The immediate effect is less about a single chip and more about Nvidia trying to pull compute, connectivity, and AI deeper into the RAN value chain
Qualcomm is the closest direct competitor if Nvidia is trying to put silicon into the radio or near-radio layer. Qualcomm already has a Layer 1 strategy that combines silicon and software in SmartNIC/server-adjacent form factors, so Nvidia would be moving into a space where Qualcomm has both telecom credibility and established IP.
The risk for Qualcomm is that Nvidia can use its AI brand, CUDA ecosystem, and hyperscale relationships to redefine what “performance” means in RAN silicon, especially if AI-native functions become a buying criterion. The counterpoint is that Qualcomm still has a strong edge in wireless-specific silicon integration and standards heritage, which matters if the 6G radio path remains RF- and modem-centric.
Nokia looks less exposed in the short term because it is already partnering with Nvidia rather than treating it as a pure adversary. Nvidia and Nokia have publicly framed their relationship as an AI-native 5G-Advanced/6G platform effort, and Nokia says it will add NVIDIA-powered commercial AI-RAN products to its RAN portfolio.
Nonetheless, a Nvidia radio-chip push could still compress Nokia’s differentiation over time if more of the RAN stack becomes software-defined and GPU-centric. The strategic question is whether Nokia remains the integrator and operator-facing systems vendor, or whether Nvidia gradually becomes the architectural center of gravity.
Ericsson is the most structurally interesting case because it sits at the high end of global RAN share and has been more cautious about Nvidia as a Layer 1 option. Light Reading notes Ericsson is currently dismissive of Nvidia as a Layer 1 choice, even while the broader ecosystem explores AI-RAN collaboration.
For Ericsson, the threat is not immediate revenue loss from a single chip; it is erosion of the traditional assumption that RAN leadership comes from proprietary radio and baseband stacks. If Nvidia can make AI-native RAN a default design paradigm, Ericsson may be forced to defend its software and systems value rather than simply its box-selling model.
Samsung Electronics contacted Light Reading after their story was published to point out that it also works with AMD as a chip partner. “Samsung supports full Layer 1 (L1) processing using Intel’s telco CPUs (e.g., Xeon 6 Granite Rapids) and lookaside accelerator approach and in addition has successfully demonstrated full L1 processing on AMD’s CPUs without relying on dedicated L1 accelerators,” a Samsung spokesperson said via email.
Marvell is the most exposed chip supplier in this story because its telecom position is more concentrated in custom Layer 1 silicon. Light Reading specifically points out that Marvell is a critical supplier to Nokia in Layer 1, which makes a Nvidia radio-chip effort a direct substitution threat in portions of the stack.
If Nvidia succeeds, Marvell faces a two-sided squeeze: loss of design wins in telecom silicon and a narrative shift toward AI-native programmable platforms that favor Nvidia’s broader ecosystem. Marvell’s defense is that telecom operators still care about power, latency, and deterministic functionality, areas where custom silicon can remain more efficient than a generalized AI-compute approach.
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Summary Table:
| Company | Impact level | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Qualcomm | High | Direct silicon adjacency and overlapping Layer 1 ambitions. |
| Marvell | High | Telecom custom-silicon exposure, especially Layer 1. |
| Ericsson | Medium | Strategic and architectural threat more than immediate chip displacement. |
| Nokia | Medium to low near term | Partnered with Nvidia, so risk is more about future dependence and stack control. |
Source: Perplexity.ai
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Conclusions:
It’s unknown whether Nvidia’s rumored radio chip becomes a product, a reference design, or just an extension of its AI-RAN platform. If it ships, watch for operator trials, power-envelope disclosures, and whether it targets RU integration, DU acceleration, or a hybrid AI-RAN endpoint. If it stays at the partnership/reference-design level, the market impact will be more narrative than revenue-relevant.
Another unanswered question is whether Nokia and Ericsson keep treating Nvidia as a collaborator while preserving their own Physical layer control, or whether they start to see Nvidia as a platform owner in the making. That boundary will determine whether this is a tactical ecosystem play or the beginning of a deeper industry reset.
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References:
https://www.lightreading.com/6g/nvidia-has-a-radical-new-ai-ran-plan-a-6g-radio-unit-chip
https://www.lightreading.com/6g/analyst-insight-6g-coming-into-focus
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/industries/telecommunications/ai-ran/
RAN Silicon Rethink- Part II; vRAN and General-Purpose Compute
Orange, Nokia, Nvidia, and Intel debate: ASICs vs. GPUs vs. General-Purpose CPUs for RAN Baseband Processing
RAN silicon rethink – from purpose built products & ASICs to general purpose processors or GPUs for vRAN & AI RAN
Dell’Oro: Analysis of the Nokia-NVIDIA-partnership on AI RAN
Nvidia pays $1 billion for a stake in Nokia to collaborate on AI networking solutions
Inside Nokia’s new AI Networking Innovation Lab
Analysis: Nvidia’s $2 billion investment in Marvell; NVLink Fusion ecosystem & RAN vendor silicon strategy
Marvell shrinking share of the RAN custom silicon market & acquisition of XConn Technologies for AI data center connectivity
